Table service is the only “restriction” that feels like a gain rather than a loss to me. Beyond the pandemic, I’d happily pay extra to keep it.
As for delta. Well there is the obvious fact that it has replaced alpha in the U.K. the cases by age data that I have looked at show that this has been an explosion in the 20-29 age group since Mid-May. It is so evident as to be staggering. This against the presence of alpha means it MUST be more transmissible. Evolutionary fitness innit.
Now for morbidity. Transmissibility is related to binding to cells and rate of growth. Delta binds harder. It likely causes a higher rate of symptoms and hence admissions, but one cannot has ignore the cross protection of vaccination. In the U.K. also the age of admissions is now younger and they do not stay in hospital as long.
I said before the best data is from PHE following line-level data of individuals from their positive cases to subsequent admissions. This is not the cleanest source but it’s what we have. The null hypothesis is that one is more likely to suffer morbidity. How much? Hard to say. It identifies that the vaccine is protective against secondary infections I. Households and against symptoms and subsequent admissions.
[tl:dr] delta must be more transmission since it replaces alpha during unlocking. About twice that of the original Wuhan. Hospitalisation rate may be at least the same but protection by vaccination is a thing. A big thing.
Interesting in Israel – precaution to see if infections result in hospitalizations maybe?
What I find odd about Israel is they got to about 60%vaccinated quickly then rates levelled off and slowly climbed to about 64-65%.
The U.K. is at that level now but the rate is still holding steady and not slowing, this is encouraging to see and bodes well for a high percentage of our population being inoculated.
We’ve overtaken Israel now. And still pushing on. The next limiting factor on achieving a much higher population coverage is school age teens. The government need to be readying parents for that… I’m a bit worried that preparing the ground for that hasn’t begun yet. I think they consider it politically difficult. Which it probably is.
No bad news about vaccinating teens from places that have been doing it for a few weeks. If I had a 12-17 year old at home I'd have suggested they get vaccinated a few days ago. One of Madame's colleagues took her kid along for the jab last week - a science teacher.
The government need to be readying parents for that… I’m a bit worried that preparing the ground for that hasn’t begun yet
Looks to be underway around my neck of the woods. A chap at work has had consent forms from school to jab his 14-year-old son.
Good news from France (and closer to home). Thanks. Nothing from the JCVI yet though, is there?
According to the Brits in this thread last year, that’s not a lockdown...
Under the new restrictions...
So no, it's not a lockdown.
Interesting take on the trials and tribulations of the AZ vaccine. From what look like rookie errors to state sponsored disinformation campaigns and general squabbling.
I work for a competitor so there’s my disclaimer in early. But long-term, I do not think the AZ vaccine will be the solution. The absence of a track record in production from the company coupled with concerns over variant coverage, and a tiny safety signal, mean that eventually I think mRNA and protein based vaccines will be the solution. I could be wrong, and be in no doubt it has saved many many lives, but I think established vaccine players will, long-term, provide the continuous supply we need. It’ll be the same as influenza annual supply, probably coformulated as one injection.
Interestingly, Sanofi have just started testing the first ever mRNA influenza vaccine. The technology has come of age, and that’s great news.
#inbeforeModerna
Hancock's gone.
Biontech have just got first patient in on an anti cancer mrna vaccine. The pandemic does seem to have given it the kick that was needed to get wider use of a fantastic technology
Wow. That’s very exciting Graham.
Sorry i was slightly wrong. The biontech one is for skin cancer and is going into phase 2.
Still very significant though
The AZ vaccine will probably be gone in a year or so but will still have played an important part in getting through this. A year ago we didn't know which vaccines to bet on so bet on a large number. We're lucky that so many bets paid off. In an alternate future, it could have been the mRNA vaccines that had a larger number of adverse effects or worse efficacy.
I feel sorry for AZ - they agreed from the outset to provide the vaccine "not for profit" during the pandemic, other companies are making large amounts of money from their vaccines.
Overall though we're just incredibly lucky to live in a time when we can develop vaccines for novel viruses so quickly.
Biontech have just got first patient in on an anti cancer mrna vaccine
Just as an aside, there have been tests of vaccines against cancer in the past. Of course the HPV is approved, but there have been non viral ones too (MAGE A3). The mRNA technology was first thought useful for cancer NOT infectious diseases. So hopefully this will prove as impressive a development as it has for sars-cov-2.
I don’t normally do politics, but I think Hancock’s position was untenable. After what he said regarding Neil Ferguson, it was only a matter of time.
My friend's 18 year old has the golden opportunity of getting a free vaccination this weekend. His nearest 'walk in' centre is a 5 minute stroll from his house. Nothing she says is making this teenager go.
How in earth can we get through to these teenagers that this is important?
My friend’s 18 year old has the golden opportunity of getting a free vaccination this weekend. His nearest ‘walk in’ centre is a 5 minute stroll from his house. Nothing she says is making this teenager go.
How in earth can we get through to these teenagers that this is important?
The delta variant is significantly more infectious and cases are rising exponentially. In the past we’d be locking down now, but that isn’t going to happen, so it’s quite likely anyone not taking the vaccine will get their inoculation the old fashioned way via infection.
How in earth can we get through to these teenagers that this is important?
Eldest turns 18 a week today, he's booking a jab the minute he can, and he'll be the last in his cohort of college/Scouts/music mates to get it done.
It's a complete myth that youngsters don't want to do their bit - the vaccination is potentially their passport to having the summer that they want and deserve.
Interesting to see Marr caught it at G7, despite being double vaccinated.
The government had said the G7 wasn't a superspreader event, despite leaving a cluster of cases in its wake
And agree Graham: mRNA tech is really interesting
Finally received my blue letter appointment for July 7th 👍
It ain’t perfect but it’s better than a kick in the shins
How in earth can we get through to these teenagers that this is important?
Play some Glastonbury. Tell them if they want to go next year, they’ll need a vaccination. Vaccine passports will be a thing. Quarantine relaxation is the first step.
From a completely self interested outlook… if you’re turning 19 soon, you’ll need the vaccination to get on with lots of things in the next 18 months. From a more social perspective, cutting transmission in places where young people gather helps protect not only other young people with pre-existing conditions, but also the older friends, families, educators, doctors, nurses, shop staff, bar staff, bus drivers etc that come into contact with young people.
Our eldest is 19 and got her first jab as soon as she possibly could.
The government had said the G7 wasn’t a superspreader event, despite leaving a cluster of cases in its wake
Case rates have gone through the roof in Cornwall, fortunately they can blame it on half term rather than G7. At least we've given all the delegations a lovely Delta present to take back to their home nations.
I suspect that any increase in case rates across Cornwall is more likely to be from half term than the G7.
The delta variant is significantly more infectious and cases are rising exponentially. In the past we’d be locking down now, but that isn’t going to happen,
Indeed it is spreading fast. In my little world (hospitality in Bristol) dozens of businesses have staff isolating or have tested positive. Some have had to close as a result (after the year they've just had, this is enough to make some go bust).
One chef friend, in his 30s, caught it from his housemate who worked in a pub where they had an outbreak. They both got it bad, this variant is (anecdotally) quite a lot worse than last year. Young people I know are scared of catching it. 3 weeks later and he's still suffering.
If my business has to close due to a positive case, that will cost us to the tune of £30k in lost revenue, plus then the cost of supporting staff if they have long term sickness.
The message coming from the media is that deaths are low, so we're fine. The reality is each of the ~100k cases we've had in the past week has consequences on people's health and businesses.
Case rate in Scotland is now above January's record and rising fast.
R number in Scotland has just been reduced.
Am I missing something?
Dup
Am I missing something?
That it’s not rising as fast as it was in the past (pre-vaccine rollout)… but of course, unchecked, it’ll keep rising for quite some time yet. Once levels are high, R doesn’t need to be high for things to get out of control. R in its own means nothing. R in combination with prevalence is what’s key.
It’s a complete myth that youngsters don’t want to do their bit – the vaccination is potentially their passport to having the summer that they want and deserve.
Basically this. The younger generation know exactly how important is it we don't need to "get through to these teenagers." They are far more socially aware that any generation before them. We also need to live with the fact some people wont get the jab and everyone need to respect that choice.
Both my son and step daughter are 18 and got there’s last week.
Didn’t require a discussion, just went off and got it done.
It's not an age thing, my 2 girls couldn't wait to get it.
One travelled for an hour and queued for two so she could get one early, most if not all in the queue were of a simular age. The other went in her lunch break from work.
Nothing she says is making this teenager go.
Rename the router 'Get your jab, get wifi' and change the password.
My two 18-year-olds are keen to get theirs, my lad has already had his second (they're allowing them after 21 days here).
We have a large health centre down the road from us and it's been a marvel to behold.whenever I walk past it.
Week on week the age of the people constantly turning up and leaving has reduced and now the vast majority I see going in and out are in their twenties/teens.
To most teenagers the message is getting through. Sure, it might be for personal gain, allowing them more "freedoms" over the year agreed but I'm not bothered by their motives in the least. It's all good.
The message coming from the media is that deaths are low, so we’re fine. The reality is each of the ~100k cases we’ve had in the past week has consequences on people’s health and businesses.
Again, they are making the mistake of looking at absolute numbers rather than the growth.
Deaths grew 72% to 124 in the last 7 days compared to the previous week, if it continues with that growth then....
In 4 weeks 1085 deaths/week
In 6 weeks 3211 deaths/week
In 8 weeks 9498 deaths/week
In 10 weeks 28,100 deaths/week
Obviously the vaccines will continue to drive R down as will increasing infections, further unlocking will increase R
Deaths grew 72% to 124 in the last 7 days compared to the previous week, if it continues with that growth then….
In 4 weeks 1085 deaths/week
In 6 weeks 3211 deaths/week
In 8 weeks 9498 deaths/week
In 10 weeks 28,100 deaths/week
That's not how it works. It took 4 months in the winter wave to hit 1400 deaths 7 day average at its highest point.
I know Ivermectin has been mentioned in the thread but something odd is going on with the general receptivity to it being a potential treatment
https://trialsitenews.com/uk-based-meta-analysis-peer-reviewed-published-suggests-ivermectin-a-key-public-health-weapon-in-the-war-against-covid-19/
Oxford Uni announced a few days ago that it's been added to their PRINCIPLE trials..
Yeah that is referenced. I hadn't heard much about it before but apparently it has been in use with good effect in quite a few countries already
That’s not how it works. It took 4 months in the winter wave to hit 1400 deaths 7 day average at its highest point.
Think it was around 9-10K deaths a week at the peak. Also less infectious variant and more restrictions(but no vaccine). For the record I don’t think the numbers I calculated will happen as people will modify behaviour when/if it gets grim also the vaccination program will continue to reduce R however the numbers are correct IF growth continues at the current rate of increase that has been seen this week.
g'day
Update from the Sydney/New South Wales lockdown
18 new cases yesterday, but (based upon the initial wave) the numbers are always down on a Monday, we are expecting an increase over the course of next week. Interesting that two cases are in ICU - that doesn't bode well as a %.
Interestingly, we are reporting almost 100% transmission rate within households. The Birthday party super-spreader event of 30 people has resulted in 24 positive cases (so far). They have also mentioned that they are noticing vaccinated individuals are seeming to be less likely to have caught it - but that's seems anecdotal at the moment - no numbers given.
From a personal perspective - Lockdown isn't really impacting us too much: we have an (almost) 5 year old and a 2.5 year old, so we are not going out to restaurants and bars much anyway! Childcare centres look to be staying open, which is great as it means that my wife and I can both still work, although they are indicating that stricter measures re: childcare centres and schools are on the way - so we will see what happens.
The kids love going to the beach at the weekend, so we will have to see what the guidance is on that - the beaches are open, but it feels wrong to be driving the 20 minutes or so to get there - even if it's virtually deserted when you arrive.
Interesting way of presenting the stat's isn't it?
130 infections is the way the ABC summarise the situation.
We're all on alert north of Brisbane as there's a community case of the delta variant.
Masks are mandatory again, some of the other restrictions have been reinstated, and we expect to know by Thursday whether we'll be on a two-week lockdown.
Typically it's happened just as the school holidays start... suspect our interstate visitors won't be flying in this coming weekend.
The Birthday party super-spreader event of 30 people has resulted in 24 positive cases (so far). They have also mentioned that they are noticing vaccinated individuals are seeming to be less likely to have caught it – but that’s seems anecdotal at the moment – no numbers given.
Update on this - the 6 people at the party who were vaccinated (one with only a single dose), are indeed the ones who haven't tested positive. Hopefully that's sufficiently dumbed-down for people to understand the benefits of vaccination.
Interesting way of presenting the stat’s isn’t it?
130 infections is the way the ABC summarize the situation.
Yeah - it's just their daily dashboard. 130 infections from this latest outbreak is what I'd heard too, although that's going to climb pretty steeply given the rate of household infection.
In the meantime, daycare has called - Batfink Jnr has got suspected hand/foot/mouth, can I come and collect her. ****s sake. Off to the doctors we go.
Driving 20 minutes to an empty beach sounds fine to me if the rules allow it - the only additional risk is if you crash on the way!
Interestingly, we are reporting almost 100% transmission rate within households.
Someone mentioned this yesterday, spread now almost guaranteed in a household, which wasn't the case with the original virus. You could shut yourself away in a ventilated room, be careful, and have a chance of not spreading it.
Yeah that is referenced. I hadn’t heard much about it before but apparently it has been in use with good effect in quite a few countries already
Is it that the countries using it had little alternative, as they had health service issues, oxygen running out, etc?
