No I still can't remember the other login.
Lolz at that bamboo thread though, I'd missed that!
Could be Chrispo?
I don't think so, I hope not tbh because that's just being daft - abusing your potential customer base.
OK, I'm trying to remember who used that exact phrase about lockdowns not working a couple of months back, or even more recently. If Chrispo is someone from Singletrack as you imply that makes my suggestion quite funny.
Chrispo....that was whom I was thinking of!
Haha, what a sad and pathetic bunch of bed-wetting melts you are.
Stage 3 achieved. How long until he posts porn like last time? 🙂
Who did? I missed that!
Me too! Why do I miss all of the good stuff 😂
Chrispo isn't usually that aggressive in his tone, I'd discounted him.
I thought about penning a response to our new contributor but decided I couldn't give a ship.
There is no evidence from around the world to show that lockdown has saved any lives.
This should be a clear giveaway as it's so demonstrably wrong, I can't believe it's still being even raised. I can't find who the big proponent was previously, but it's either the same person or someone channelling it to get the reaction.
We had a statewide lockdown in Queensland. It was over a year ago I think.
My ICU colleagues were tachycardic - i remember being told that we would be overrun by mid-April and it would look like Italy or the UK.
But in the end the lockdown was lovely. Like a little holiday for many, though difficult for plenty i'm sure. Sadly seven people died from coronavirus. Then we slowly opened up again. Life is 90+% normal again and has been for ages. Every now and then there's a leak from another state or a quarantined traveller. But because the numbers are so small contact tracing and localised lockdowns work well.
Fingers crossed it continues to work well, or we'll have to revert to using a large-scale lockdown. Because the evidence proved @chump that it worked very well indeed.
Chump... nice username/adjective quite clever don't ya think...
Again?
Can we please keep this the page for realists?
The fantasists have enough of the rest of the internet to turn it inside out twice over.
Just the real stuff here please, some of us are looking here for some clarity.
Sydney outbreak update.... beep.... beep.... beep
22 new cases yesterday, bringing the cluster size to 65 - a fair few have come in after the reporting window - so it looks like tomorrow is going to be a pretty big number too (for us).
As a result, they have put 4 local council areas (about 500,000 people) into lockdown:
Woollahra, Waverley, Randwick and City of Sydney Councils.
Due to the risk associated with an increasing number of exposure venues where transmission has occurred, from 11.59pm tonight until at least 11.59pm on Friday 2 July, residents of, or people whose usual place of work is in, the four LGAs must stay at home unless it is for an essential reason.The reasons you may leave your home include:
Shopping for food or other essential goods and services;
Medical care or compassionate needs;
Exercise outdoors in groups of 10 or fewer;
Essential work, or education, where you cannot work or study from home.
This is basically Sydney city Centre, and everything east of it to the sea (all the eastern suburbs beaches eg: bondi), and south to the airport. Represents probably the most affluent area in the whole of Australia - which is is interesting.
I live in the "Inner west" which is directly to the west of the City Centre - if this expands at all..... it'll be us.
They were talking-up the contact tracing, but obviously everybody was super-focused on the lockdown orders. I'll confirm it when more details come out, but it sounded to me like what we are seeing now is a bump in numbers associated with household transmission, and confirmed cases in those people who as "close contacts" have been in lockdown since soon after exposure (ie: have not been infectious in the community) - but that might be wishful thinking!
Fingers crossed for you @batfink
Represents probably the most affluent area in the whole of Australia – which is is interesting.
Well, yes...
I’d honestly welcome a sound well evidenced case for lockdowns not working. But the arguments I’ve seen so far don’t even stack up with their own evidence. Let alone the logical failings on the arguments structures. There’s some impressive logical leaps and selective acceptance of what’s relevant and what isn’t. I find it quite difficult to get my head around why certain factors with credible and logical evidence are completely ignored/disregarded.
There’s a level of faith in what someone accepts as “fact” that I do not have.
+1
I think many have been incredibly patient at discussing the counter-opinions. And yes, debunking / explaining the evidence. As much as I continue to respect the right to have a different opinion I can't (yet - I'm open minded) change my opinion that eg: lockdowns work / vaccines work / this is not a deep state-pharma conspiracy.
And in general I'd do the same again because I don't think yelling 'IDIOT!' or worse at people with a different opinion has got any minds changed, rather has entrenched views.
But undoubtedly there are trolls and sealions a-plenty as well, just here for the sport and it is a bit fish in a barrel for them, tbh.
Going straight in with the 'cowering melts behind the sofa' and personal attacks is not the starting position for a new poster whose intent is to propose a different opinion and debate it openly though. So safety catches off, fire at will.
In our case - the “lockdown” of certain suburbs is to slow the spread of the virus while the test and trace does it’s job. With this variant, super-spreader events are hugely more likely, so they need to stop people going to cinemas, swimming pools etc until they get the cork back in the bottle.
I’m swinging somewhere between optimism and extreme pessimism. At least it’s interesting I suppose…. And nobody has died (yet)
There's definitely an argument that the way the UK and some other countries have gone about lockdowns - late, half-arsed, poorly communicated, not backed up with travel bans and/or proper quarantine, all of which extended the time they were needed - reduced the potential speed and effectiveness of lockdowns.
But that's not the same as "lockdowns don't work", as those who did it properly have shown. And none of the lockdown deniers seem to have any evidence that the alternative is better, because, well, Brazil for example.
But as Australia seems about to show, lockdowns, strict travel and quarantine rules, thorough track and trace, are only really useful if you can get ahead with the vaccination programme.
Really hope the Aussies get on top of this again, if only to show - yet again - how a proper system will work.
Next day or so is critical for Australia. They're doing everything right at this point, but this is not the same virus they were trying to get under control last year.
So safety catches off, fire at will.
I have a feeling we'll have to wait for the next variant of this particular poster to pop up first.
but this is not the same virus they were trying to get under control last year.
Yes, that is absolutely clear, and is being trumpeted loudly by anyone in front of a camera.
The states are all pointing fingers at the federal government for the poor procurement of Vaccines, which they say is responsible for the low vaccination rate. However, I don't think we are too far behind most other countries, once you remove the UK and US as outliers.
I'm genuinely impressed with the track and trace, they are basically trying to catch positive cases before they become symptomatic, and seem to be doing a pretty decent job of it - the numbers might continue to go up for a while yet, but lets see if the rate of new infection locations popping-up slows down.
At the risk of asking somebody to repeat themselves, do we know anything about the hospitalization/death rate of the delta variant?
Delta, started touring early it seems
At the risk of asking somebody to repeat themselves, do we know anything about the hospitalization/death rate of the delta variant?
I tried looking, and I think the truth is that "we don't know". The data that suggested it causes both higher morbidity and mortality in India seems to have been roundly debunked as possibly being an effect of too many cases and not enough testing. And the data in the UK showing the opposite is too hard to disentangle from the effects of so many people having been vaccinated. I think a lot of countries behind us on vaccinations where this variant has not yet taken over will be erring on the side of caution though.
yes, I suppose if nothing else, we will be able to give you some data on that!
Our learings so far: "transmissible as ****"
do we know anything about the hospitalization/death rate of the delta variant?
In les Landes the figures released so far don't point to the Delta variant being significantly more aggressive despite initial reports in the Lancet based on Scottish numbers that it causses twice the hospitalisation rate.
Given the small numbers in les Landes, the high vaccination rate among older people and the fact that most cases are young it's hard to draw conclusions at this point.
https://www.lci.fr/sante/variant-delta-les-nouveaux-cas-francais-sont-ils-graves-2189701.html
I've seen reports from India that 50% of the population are thought to have had Covid. Even if you add a zero (or even two zeros) to the official death figures the death rate isn't that high if 50% really have had the virus.
I’ve seen reports from India that 50% of the population are thought to have had Covid.
Seems very optimistic, even accounting for increased transmissibility of delta and local circumstances which increase spread. I think we were running at something like 10-15% after wave 1.
I remember some equally optimistic noises coming out of the Great Barrington mob here last summer.
We need @TiRed to point us to current best data trying to compare the variants.
You can't work out accurate death rates for India at the moment. Reports i have read is that to be able to have a death reported as covid it needed a positive test which were nearly non existant for most people.
The only way we will find out is from census data in the future for most countries without developed healthcare systems. I think the Indian ones are going to be a horrifying amount higher than the official numbers. Probably closer to add two 0 to the number than 1. If not bigger.
https://twitter.com/davidlipson/status/1408233257993314304
Clients+potential contacts, apparently. But still, yikes.
Shows that we can’t let down our guard yet.
Latest news from Israel.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-57594155
Interesting in Israel - precaution to see if infections result in hospitalizations maybe?
BBC News - Coronavirus: Israel reimposes masks amid new virus fears
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-57594155
Aaaaaaaaaand the whole of Sydney is in lockdown for two weeks.
It’s half term, so schools not an issue - childcare staying open (thank ****)
How strict is the Sydney lockdown? It’s the most misused word of the pandemic imho.
Lockdown in Oz is legally enforceable afaik. In Queensland we had police enforcement last year.
At the moment the assumption here is that it's spreading like crazy.
Wait times for vaccine in my area is currently 3 months.
People will be fined significant sums for breaches.
However, my local info (director of a major vaccination centre) is that it's lack of community response that was the problem rather than supply of vaccine. Ie complacency.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-26/nsw-covid-19-lockdown-rules-explained/100246644
How strict is the Sydney lockdown? It’s the most misused word of the pandemic imho.
I think you can exercise outdoors in groups of up to 10. According to the Brits in this thread last year, that’s not a lockdown and will result in thousands of excess deaths.
The rules:
Under the new restrictions that kicked off at 6:00pm on Saturday, people in Greater Sydney, the Blue Mountains, Central Coast and Wollongong can only leave home for the following four reasons:
Shopping for food or other essential goods and services
Medical care or compassionate needs (including to get a COVID-19 vaccine)
Exercise outdoors in groups of 10 or fewer
Essential work, or education, where you cannot work or study from home
Ms Berejikian said weddings would be permitted to take place today and tomorrow on compassionate grounds.However, from Monday they would not be allowed until at least July 9.
Funerals will be permitted with a maximum 100 guests (subject to the four-square-metre rule) for the duration of the lockdown.
Latest Variant Report Published
Page 13
This is a summary of the table. It suggests a 65% reduction in hospitalisations and deaths for those aged over 50 who test positive and have been double vaccinated.
I do wonder if the average age in the 2 doses group and the unvaccinated group are the same. This would impact the results.
A bit worrying that there is still a 1.4% chance of dying after testing positive and being double vaccinated when aged over 50.
Also, not all of the people who tested positive will have either receovered or died, so the 1.4% rate will increase.
I still have the same question as last time Neil, is that the effects on people who get tested only? Does it account for people who have been infected by with symptoms mild enough they dont notice/bother with testing.
So how is Australia/NZ going to get out of this? Will enough of them vaccinate - and by when? Or will they have travel restrictions and intermittent lockdowns for.....a decade?
Piemonster, it would be good to get some data to prove that but instictively that is possible.
Yeh it would be informative, I was wondering whether they undertook widespread testing symptoms or no symptoms just to calibrate the estimations.
So how is Australia/NZ going to get out of this? Will enough of them vaccinate – and by when? Or will they have travel restrictions and intermittent lockdowns for…..a decade?
Until there are sufficient supplies of vaccine, border restrictions and intermittent lockdowns will continue. We are not choosing that approach instead of vaccinating.
That won’t take a decade (obviously).
Vaccine hesitancy has been an issue undoubtedly - but that’s what happens when you have a vaccine with well/over reported risks vs zero risk (for months) of contracting covid, let alone dying from it. But the much bigger issue is availability - states can’t launch a concerted roll-out effort because they just don’t have the supplies to do that.
There is no evidence from around the world to show that lockdown has saved any lives
Funny. I can point to the U.K. data over this winter that showed we lost an extra 25-30k deaths just by postponing the lockdown to January. In fact I’ve posted the analysis here to show it. Not a great plot.
We will see seasonal winter respiratory disease increase. This will be a mix of influenza, RSV and covid. Winter is some time away. Likely some further strains away too for covid given the typical replacement time for alpha and delta. It’s u likely they will be U.K. generated, but we did make alpha.
But we have yet to see real vaccine escape (as we do for influenza), nor have we seen significant treatment escape (US have stopped Lilly antibody treatment this week). We will see oral medications coming by year end. AZ are about to announce their prophylaxis results for PROVENT. This is the answer for those not able to take the vaccine. It may also provide protection for immediate cover of a new imported variant.
I’d be planning autumn flu jabs with a booster for covid given at the same time. By then adults will be fully vaccinated and the system still in place to move to flu.
I don’t expect significant further lockdowns. But behavioural change is already baked in. And I like table service too 😎
If they published the ONS surveillance testing data at the same level of granuality that would be a way to analyse it. Unfortuntely I do not think it is published at that level.
Table service is great 🙂
