Pretty scary reading on the guardian analysis article ( https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/27/delta-covid-variant-may-be-edging-race-against-vaccines): encounters of 5-10s enough to transmit.
I'm not sure I yet understand the current decision making process.
Infection rate is rising faster than ever.
We are relaxing restrictions.
There is still a policy of isolation in the event of suspected infection.
Regardless of the hospitalisation and death rates not rising as previously, surely there's a real economic impact when a large proportion of the public are isolating? That's at both a national and at a company level. We're already seeing many businesses having to close for 10 day periods. That number will just keep rising. Many of the businesses won't survive much longer and many individuals simply can't afford to lose the income.
I really don't know what the answer is but I don't see the current position as sustainable. Is this why July 19th is being positioned as "freedom day"? Regardless of the numbers it is now time to let it rip and just keep an eye on hospitalisation/death rates and pray for no more deadly variant to show up?
surely there’s a real economic impact when a large proportion of the public are isolating? That’s at both a national and at a company level. We’re already seeing many businesses having to close for 10 day periods. That number will just keep rising. Many of the businesses won’t survive much longer and many individuals simply can’t afford to lose the income.
But the counter is that continuing to extend lockdowns with the reduced economy caused by that is causing the same things to happen - particularly as support is not being extended in the same way as lockdowns.
It's not an easy decision / balance to find. Thankfully, we don't have a bunch of shit-flinging gibbons making those decisions for us......
It’s not an easy decision / balance to find.
I'm not pretending I know (or even that there is) a better answer. Just pondering that I think I'm now in favour of removing the isolation requirement so July 19th suddenly seems very reasonable (indeed, why delay?)
Possibly:
Regardless of the numbers it is now time to let it rip and just keep an eye on hospitalisation/death rates
but i have some nagging doubts about:
and pray for no more deadly variant to show up?
I'll be honest, I'm struggling a bit to understand that too. The PM said, and Gove confirmed that the 19th was an Terminus and it could be sooner. Unless something really unprecedented happened (and are these new transmission figures REALLY unprecedented / unforeseeable?)
The benefit is that more people will be vaccinated by then, but even so they will only just be, many will not be fully vaxxed or had the chance for the immunity to build up (approx 3 weeks, if I recall) so I can't quite balance what extra benefit we're getting if the decision is to all intents and purposes irreversible.
If it was a case of 'because new info and we really don't know' - which ultracautious me can somewhat justify - then I might be more understanding of why we need another 2 weeks of data. But it's already been described as a Terminus, and to kick it out again would truly be a brave move against the increasing tide of opinion, and the impact on the economy.
The balance is definitely shifting.
Regardless of the hospitalisation and death rates not rising as previously, surely there’s a real economic impact when a large proportion of the public are isolating?
And educational impact. At the moment we're "keeping schools open", but failing the children in them, as so many are kept off school, or their teachers are missing (that's the local picture here anyway). Having measures in place to reduce transmission can help schools when it comes to operating properly for as many pupils as possible, rather than working in such a piecemeal fashion. "Open" and "freedom" isn't just about an absence of rules and restrictions.
or their teachers are missing
I think that's what I'm getting at. Is having teachers isolate the correct policy now? Surely they should just carry on working as normal (same for other workers).
And educational impact. At the moment we’re “keeping schools open”, but failing the children in them
Thankfully scientists are calling for the whole bubble aspect to be revisited for the new term after holiday.
It can't go on simply closing down whole year groups for example, it's such a huge impact to lots of kids who probably haven't caught it from their classmate.
Regardless of the numbers it is now time to let it rip and just keep an eye on hospitalisation/death rates and pray for no more deadly variant to show up?
This appears to be the plan. When the delay to 'Freedom Day' was announced, it was obvious that by the new date things would be much worse - so what was the point? Was it supposed to make it look like they cared?
Don't think so. Just get as many more vaccinated as you can. I got my second jab on Saturday at one of the the vaccination centres that were doing walk-ins. Just over a week 'early'. I'd been unable to rebook my second one without cancelling it first which I was reluctant to do. Similar for my gf and she took her 18 year old down for his first too.
Just get as many more vaccinated as you can.
Yup. The delay is for additional vaccinations. That's going well, so no matter what the "data", most remaining (legal) measures will be dropped in July.
Shame the vaccination rate is also slowing down
Shame the vaccination rate is also slowing down
Well there's two aspects
- Willingness to get jabbed
- Supply
From that graph it doesn't tell you why it's currently dipping. I suspect its more of the latter as half of the under 30s have had their 1st jab so that doesn't appear to be a problem at the moment unlike say Israel where rates have practically come to a standstill.
More likely to be supply as we're restricted to Moderna and Pfizer at the moment for the age range we're jabbing.
Be more concerned if its the former.
I think this is going to be a shittier winter than a lot of people though. They'll be covid and other respiratory stuff doing the rounds, the hospitals will be straining again, and I'd be surprised if there aren't circuit breakers and lockdowns.
There's already talk of the 19th July going backward yet again despite it being "terminus".
There’s already talk of the 19th July going backward yet again despite it being “terminus”.
Link?
Politically, the 19th is a fixed point now. They've left no further wiggle room. The delay was to give us a month to get some more under-30s vaccinated, rather than get case numbers down. You can only do that by locking down hard, and what we have now could not be described as a lockdown in any way, shape or form, regardless of what the loonies claim.
Javid nailing his balls to the mast on the 19th July date when delta variant is still causing headaches
With a huuuuge NHS backlog even a small rise in hospitalisation will have a big effect
when delta variant is still causing headaches
The only current headache is the isolation requirement.
Link?
Sky news web - front - page.
The current 'restrictions' do not particularly inhibit spread of this variant - it's just too transmissible. The only way to do this is to impose greater restrictions, and even rolling back to the previous level of 'lockdown' would not be strict enough. I don't think there's any stomach for that politically, even people like me who have backed a clear role for strict lockdowns can't see how it can be sustained indefinitely.
I would like to see mask wearing in shops/schools/public transport continue, however.
Sky news web – front – page.
That also says July 19th is still the date.
I would like to see mask wearing in shops/schools/public transport continue, however.
This. Hopefully just for the summer, and then see where we are after the first few weeks of next term. Get everything left to open... fully open. Keep simple measures to try and reduced the speed of transmission.
Interesting one of the household transmission.
My wife probably caught it 9 days ago, felt ropey last Tuesday, lat flow tested on Wednesday morning. We split the house, so she has upstairs and I have downstairs whikst we isolate, with my 2 and 4 year old having free reign. So far I’m negative (2 x pcr tests, lat flow tests daily) but my eldest has tested since tested positive. Have had all the windows open ( this is cornwall so there is always a breeze), and with the likelihood that this is the delta variant, shows how important fresh air can be.
I’m bring up wets to the wife and showering upstairs, but always wearing a mask ( one of those biking/pollution ones I had from years ago).
I’m expecting to come down with it at some point, mainly because I’m having to look after the children, but ventilation/one vaccine dose obviously helps
The other factor is that there may be a 'natural' plateau in case numbers in the towns first hit by delta - Bolton etc. That suggests that delta growth is dependent on specific local reservoirs of susceptible people in different age groups. One of those is schoolchildren, and it will be interesting to see what happens when the school term ends and there is more outdoor and less indoor mixing.
see what happens when the school term ends and there is more outdoor and less indoor mixing.
Worth noting many people intend to travel outside their local area for Summer holidays over then next 8 weeks or so.
09:55 (for transparency this is a selection from the update, read it all if you want)
The "ferociously infectious" Delta variant could see Freedom Day pushed back again, a member of a scientific group advising the government has told Sky News.
Professor Peter Openshaw said it would be a "mistake" to bring the date forward from 19 July as vaccination rates are not yet high enough.
"It's so important that we get the vaccination rate as high as we can before any easement of restrictions," he told Kay Burley.
He said it was a "possibility" the lifting of restrictions could be pushed back again.
The government's track record of listening to what experts on the committee think is not great in the last 12 months, sadly.
As ever, unless people can see the volume of cases in the NHS causing an obvious immediate issue, keeping any of the restrictions due to be relaxed on 19th July is going to be very unpopular. The hidden 5.1 million on the waiting lists don't register to many. I can see restrictions being relaxed, the NHS being hit 1-2 months down the line and then we hit the schools returning and the start of the winter season.
In other news, one of my favourite pubs in Nottingham (though I've not been for 15 months) has just announced on FB that they are having to close for 10 days due to staff isolating, and they added #cheerschina. Post has just come down following a bit of a backlash to that.
In better news, Jnr has been invited to book his first jab next week as he turns 18 on Sunday - well done the NHS for being on top of it.
He said it was a “possibility” the lifting of restrictions
Need, some people seem to think I suggested it was definitely going to happen, but my actual words were:
There’s already talk of the 19th July going backward yet again despite it being “terminus”.
The hidden 5.1 million on the waiting lists don’t register to many.
I wonder how many of those 5.1 million are stuck on a waiting list because the consultant won't see them face to face and they (rightly) refuse a phone consultation.
One of those is schoolchildren, and it will be interesting to see what happens when the school term ends and there is more outdoor and less indoor mixing.
Schools finish a month earlier in Scotland cf England so should be some signs there first, but hard to deconvolute
Crap weather won't help
Politically, the 19th is a fixed point now.
If we are still following the data it shouldn't be.
I think it's fair to say that normal life isn't going to return in the next 12-18 months. Vaccination programs are not aligned globally, new variants will continue to pose a risk, and hospitals will continue to struggle the balance between COVID patients and backlogs.
Regardless of the hospitalisation and death rates not rising as previously, surely there’s a real economic impact when a large proportion of the public are isolating?
This quarentine bit is what I don't get. They are opening up society including pubs and clubs with zero social distancing, yet they then expect you to self isolate for 10 days if you've been in contact with a anyone who tests positive. Even if there was personally zero risk to me or my family from going to a pub, it would mean that there is the constant threat of 10 days self isolation hanging over you.
Unless the expectation is no-one bothers with self isolation as soon as the country opens up?
I wonder how many of those 5.1 million are stuck on a waiting list because the consultant won’t see them face to face and they (rightly) refuse a phone consultation.
None of my extended family who have needed to see a doctor or consultant face to face - between us that's a GP, heart consultant, cancer unit, dementia and orthopeadic consultants - have had a problem getting a face to face consultation.
I'm seeing a physio face to face at 3pm, and thevwhole family have seen an NHS dentist at least once this year.
Our experience does not appear to fit your suggestion.
If we are still following the data it shouldn’t be.
We aren’t. I’m glad they looked at the data and pushed the original date back from June, but politically I don’t think they can move that July 19th date now. I just hope they aren’t wedded to some idea of “back to normal” on that date, rather than a further relaxation. If we end up with kids missing education next term, and small businesses failing because of slack trade and absent staff, just so that snowflakes don’t have to wear masks while queuing in Tesco over the rest of summer, I wouldn’t consider that the right trade off.
If we are still following the data it shouldn’t be.
Hence the term 'politically'. There has always been a trade off between what was the most appropriate scientific approach, and what our masters have felt was politically acceptable.
Sadly, that has generally meant delaying action and making things worse. I don't expect that to change. The most recent example appears to be keeping India off the red list (for purely political reasons). This probably brought forward the delta case curve in time, costing us a number of weeks of extra vaccination (which of course, were far more valuable than the extra month of vaccinations we are having now).
Still, it's particularly handy that Madeira made it to the Green list just in time for the PM to go off on holiday there.
Is he? Really?!? He wouldn't? Would he?!? Read the room Johnson... read the room...
The forelock tuggers will still be in awe of him if he does go on holiday. When they can't get their own holidays abroad in because he left us open to importing the Delta variant, and failed to stop it taking hold, they'll blame anyone but him.
[ He kept the fights from India busy despite putting in controls for those flying from their neighbours (to be able to rub up along Modi). He is responsible for the keeping jobs in the family Dido Harding's world class test track and trace programme. ]
tpbiker
Free MemberUnless the expectation is no-one bothers with self isolation as soon as the country opens up?
I think that's absolutely the expectation. And then of course if/when it becomes a problem they can say "alas, people ignored the rules"
They are going to have to abandon self isolation or nothing will work. Even at today's level of infections, schools are really struggling to stay open as large numbers of staff and support staff are isolating. After another 3 weeks of exponential growth they will have no staff left. Neither will most other businesses.
If you don't put any check on transmission in schools and work places, you're going to end up with staff off for longer.
Two of our local secondary schools have shut today, feeling is that there will be more before the school holidays. Have gov.uk ****ed up again because the couldn't bear to u turn on a a stronger anti social policy?
200 hospitalisations a day is about where we were in mid september
At that point it took another 9 days to reach 300 a day, so if next Weds we are on 300 then 19th really isnt happening
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-daily-covid-admissions?time=2020-07-24..2020-11-01
200 hospitalisations a day is about where we were in mid september
At that point it took another 9 days to reach 300 a day, so if next Weds we are on 300 then 19th really isnt happening
Why are you comparing the current situation to a totally different situation last year?
Based on last year/last wave, hospitalisations would be much higher by now. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57643694
Look at the fancy graphs comparing last year and now.
