Oh, the podcast bikeforfreedom (whoever they are) is sharing has been very popular with the anti-vax “I found the truth on the dark web” people, I’ve seen it shared a lot in those circles.
@Kelvin have you actually listened to it? Can you explain what’s wrong with the opinions and data?
Also any reason to completely shoot down everything?
And to label anyone with alternative opinions an anti-vaxer or conspiracy person is a bit weak.
And to label anyone with alternative opinions an anti-vaxer or conspiracy person is a bit weak.
Or there's an Anti-anti-vaxer conspiracy....🤔
Makes you think
I'll go do my own research
In other news the BBC is reporting new phe data showing 75% protection from phizer or az jab against hospitalisation, 90% protection with two jabs. On pm just now.
So just about identical numbers to the French ones for PCR test results in Les Landes where Delta is present, Del. 90% protection from having PCR test measuable levels of virus and also 90% protection from hospitalisation from two jabs. That's good news if the phe results are for a time period and area where the Delta variant is dominant.
reassuring. 👍
Can you explain what’s wrong with the opinions and data?
Some reading on the Byram Bridle theory on the spike protein being toxic. That podcast seems to be a mix of this plus investors of alternative treatments who are not happy all the focus is on vaccines.
@tjagain vaccine efficacy is relatively straightforward. In pivotal trials it is one minus the relative risk of symptomatic infection. Basically recruit 40k subjects. Dose half on vaccine and half a placebo. Hope for 200 symptomatic infection events (this number is important). If the split is about 66/133 then you win. That’s because the efficacy is 1 - (66/20000)/(133/20000) = 0.51 or 51%
Why 200? Well a vaccine can only be approved if the VE is bigger than 50% (sorry cureVac) AND the lower confidence limit for the effect is bigger than 30%. The 200 events with that split gets the lower limit over the magic 30%
The mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna were more like 10/190. A massive effect.
The efficacy produced by PHE reported today for keeping out of hospital is from monitoring records data and comparing histories of vaccinated and Unvaccinated after they test positive by pcr. It’s not a pure placebo control.
Is Curevac efficacy lower because of the Delta variant, or just because it’s not as good?
Dose would be my first guess. They will have clinical Phase 1 data comparing immunogenicity with convalescent sera, of course (like all the others). Variant is perhaps one explanation, but I think I'd be looking at dose and adjuvant for boosting effect first. I have not seen the data - but I am sure the Phase 1 will be on MedrXiv by now.
On the point of hospitalisation and deaths. These are pretty rare events in the vaccine trials. 200 events (symptomatic infections) is when you pull the trial plug. If 5% go to hospital, then that's really only 10 people. Deaths will then be rarer still (maybe 1-2). So the evidence for the AZ efficacy in preventing morbidity and mortality against the South Africa variant was pretty poor (and concerning). The protection against the delta variant is welcome. We should not take such protection for granted.
Rebooked my az dose 2 for Monday, that's 10 weeks. First knocked me out for about 24 hours then ok again, hopefully 2nd wont be as bad, my wife had less reaction to the 2nd.
This is of course dependent on the all clear from yesterday's tonsil tickle test. 3 year old developed a fever Thursday night so I took her for a PCR yesterday and since I'd felt a bit headachy and runny nose and my daughter's nursery was an epicenter for Delta variant here in South London I thought I best do one too.
Hoping to visit mum tomorrow too.... If the results come back with good news.
If I was conducting a social gathering test like a concert or a football match, I would be be informing all participants beforehand that I would be introducing a known quantity of Covid positive participants in there with them. PCR testing several days before, quarantine, event, quarantine, another PCR test to see how many were now infected.
The protocol being used for these various test events sounds nothing like this from what I've read/seen and is going to horribly skew the results towards everything is safe, give us "Freedom Day" ASAP.
I would be introducing a known quantity of Covid positive participants in there with them. PCR testing several days before, quarantine, event, quarantine, another PCR test to see how many were now infected.
You'd never get ethics approval for that trial. A company called hVIVO have recently completed their first COVID challenge study in healthy subjects. They give a small but controlled innoculumm, test daily to look for infection, follow closely and give rescue medication.
The meetings protocol is basically see if we can monitor and control.
And negative, yay. Although just heard on the radio that all of Lambeth is being urged to surge test for Delta variant. I'm just outside
You’d never get ethics approval for that trial
I totally get the ethics why you can't introduce the virus to these test events, but as I understand it, all they are effectively testing is that a big group of people who test negative before an event are still testing negative afterwards? Ethically, we can't test how easily it might be caught at such events
Remember a negative test doesn't mean you haven't got it. So the test events show testing etc can be accurate enough to keep Transmission low
As above, I can see the ethics stance, but on the other hand we are being told "Freedom Day" is a month today and that generally the unvaccinated young will be fine because the young don't get ill or die from Covid.
I believe most of these test events are simply using the 30min rapid flow tests, not PCR tests, so some people might well get false positive results and be let in. But if the test results are accurate, Covid negative participicants don't spontaneously develop Covid if they aren't exposed to Covid.
And when some test positive after the event, if they weren't PCR tested just before the event and then quarantined before entry, how can anything meaningful about Covid spread at such events be deduced?
Just before Covid really kicked off in England we had the Cheltenham horse racing and Athletico Madrid football fans at Anfield, Stereophonics held a concert in Cardiff etc. That strain was far less transmittable than Delta.
Besides a brief period last summer where Royal Mail allowed voluntary van sharing, we haven't van shared officially for ~15 months. The two colleagues I van shared with in March '20, for approx 8 periods of ~5mins on each shift, both isolated for Covid symptoms ~5 days later after I came home to find my partner with a continuous cough and so I began isolating. Yet with a more transmittable strain around, Royal Mail intend to enforce van sharing by simply having the van windows open from 19th July unless restrictions remain, with a wide range of staff ages (and so in different stages of vaccination) and no intention presently to make sure you only share a van with one other individual. Without taking account of annual leave personnel changes, this means my potential "chain of infection" van share colleagues is 8+ colleagues. Absolute madness.
I believe most of these test events are simply using the 30min rapid flow tests, not PCR tests, so some people might well get false positive results and be let in. But if the test results are accurate, Covid negative participicants don’t spontaneously develop Covid if they aren’t exposed to Covid.
Yes and no. Yes, everyone has to test negative by LFT but then also has to PCR before and after. That way they can look at transmission (part of the purpose, not just testing the infrastructure needed to run events)
It's not clear that the PCR also needs to be negative before they come in (I don't think so, from the link below) or what happens if they do get a positive PCR result once in, are they then removed from the event or left in so they can see how far it then goes. Is that ethically OK - I guess as long as the participants know that there may be Covid positive people present and go ahead then it's OK. Whereas deliberately seeding a few carriers into the event to see how far they can spread it......
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-57541794
Brazil, poor sods when does willfully ignoring science become criminal
Aaaaaaaaand Sydney is cattle-trucked.
A bloody limo driver from airport>quarantine wasn't vaccinated (he should have had the vaccine 6 months ago) and wasn't wearing mask. As a result we are getting lists of transmission venues almost hourly..... cinemas, department stores, even ikea. 8 confirmed cases so far - but thats going to grow pretty quickly I think.
It's the Delta variant too - and early reports suggest that several people have caught it via "fleeting" contact of only a few seconds with somebody who's infected. Hence my pessimism.
I had my first jab on Friday (Pfizer), and Mrs Batfink is having her's tomorrow. As soon as we could get an appt. They are now giving Pfizer to anyone under 60 and AZ to anyone older.
As per my previous posts - Vaccine hesitancy because of AZ safety fears, combined with no real feeling of danger, has left Australia significantly behind in terms of % vaccinated.
I'm off to buy toilet paper.
Ouch.
That's going to be interesting to see if it can be contained now it's started to spread, to see how well your T&T works.
As well as Aus has done (albeit vax program is an oddity) it was inevitable you'd get D at some point I think, but would have been better if it was much later than the vax program. I can't believe still only 3% when everything else seems to have been so well done.
Do you want us to send you Dido Harding to help co-ordinate?
Bad news Batfink.
A real test for your track and trace programme, let's hope its up to the task.
Sadly it may be the prompt to get the vaccination message across, but lets hope it can be brought under control.
Yeah - it’s all the boomers refusing to get vaccinated because they were/are holding out to be offered the “safer” Pfizer vaccine.
They’ve just announced that anyone under 60 can have the Pfizer vaccine now, so hopefully that’ll bump up the rates.
I’d be a bit more relaxed if this was happening after I’d had my second jab in A couple of weeks - but the universe seems to have other plans.
Re: Dido. Yeah, nah….
3% of the population vaccinated? Holy ****!
FULLY vaccinated
22.3% have had at least one dose (which is hardly sparkling either)
Sorry if this has already been discussed ,but is there any benefit/point in using a visor without a mask? I always thought they were just a bit of added protection when used with other PPE.
Thanks
The main idea with a visor is to stop aerosol getting into your eyes. By itself it has minimal protection.
Don't forget large scale mask wearing is about you not spreading to others. So I guess a well worn visor stops your breath hitting someone directly in front of you.
It is also a way for those who find masks medically unwearable to demonstrate they are thinking of others.
Thanks dantsw13.
We had a wee incident at work today where a member of staff (doesn't come in much) walked through an open plan office with just a visor. A few people got bothered by this and it went a bit full rant, with two of them stating they were not happy to share a space with the visor wearer. I know there are too many environment/space variables to consider but there has been a small group in another section flagged with track and trace recently so people are more sensitive this week. Good Monday start 😒
Just been for 2nd jab (az). Good to see the pharmacy doing a roaring trade with lots of younger adults in there for moderna. Looks like people are doing there bit.
Now, fingers crossed I don't feel rubbish for a day as I did last time.
It’s the Delta variant too – and early reports suggest that several people have caught it via “fleeting” contact of only a few seconds with somebody who’s infected. Hence my pessimism.
This is what we are being told via a few sources in Education - that Delta can transmit in under a minute and is more contagious to younger adults & children. I am waiting on WHO / UK Gov. / Scot. Gov / Welsh Gov. to actually publish some findings on this though - none so far on paper, but a few webinars or news snippets with health experts stating this.
Well... there was the issue of Hancock not passing on the data that shows this to other government departments... never mind informing us plebs sending our kids to school with the message that mask wearing, open windows and social distancing are no longer needed.
,but is there any benefit/point in using a visor without a mask?
This may be helpful:
https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0022968
In summary, visors impede the initial spread of droplets after a sneeze or a cough, but, as you'd expect, they are still ejected and dispersed, just less violently. This virus is capable of transmission in an aerosol-like way, suspended in the air which is then circulated around an office, so the fewer aerosolised particles you send out, the lower the risk. So, unless they are incapable of wearing a mask, visors are a poor substitute.
Have we done "rumours" of summer holidays being allowed to amber countries if you are double jabbed...
seems a reasonable approach, obviously not 100% fool proof as vaccination not 100% effective...
...oh and your unvaccinated under 18 kids can go too.
So its purely political.
Is that not the system the EU are putting in place? Makes sense for us try and join in (without the press of government putting it that way, of course).
Countries using or preparing to use the EUDCC...
Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, The Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain
+ Sweden, Switzerland, Iceland, Norway
That's s a fair proportion of the countries you might need to travel to for work or family reasons (and, yes, eventually, a holiday, fingers crossed).
If you live in Wales you cant even have digital proof of your covid vaccinations.. You phone a number and they post you a certificate (can take up to 10 days for them to get around to posting it to you). I wonder if thats acceptable to travel in the EU?
I've already got the EU compatible Covid app on my phone which in theory will be valid everywhere in Europe from 1/7. It's just a QR code compatible with the EU system. I've also got given a paper copy with my second vaccination which has the QR code. However Madame's code doesn't work so there must be some bugs left to iron out.
Edit: she's had another go and it's worked so she's happy.
It’s the Delta variant too – and early reports suggest that several people have caught it via “fleeting” contact of only a few seconds with somebody who’s infected. Hence my pessimism.
This is what we are being told via a few sources in Education – that Delta can transmit in under a minute and is more contagious to younger adults & children. I am waiting on WHO / UK Gov. / Scot. Gov / Welsh Gov. to actually publish some findings on this though – none so far on paper, but a few webinars or news snippets with health experts stating this.
Well..... we have got have got the moment that it was transmitted between two individuals in Sydney on CCTV:
The footage shows two people briefly walk past each other while out shopping – both of them now infected with COVID-19.
"we actually have CCTV footage of the encounter and it is basically a crossover of individuals. They are clearly facing each other but it is literally someone moving across from each other for a moment, close, but momentary"
Hence my pessimism. Today's numbers are to be announced soon - but there were only 2 new cases yesterday, bringing the total "Bondi" cluster up to 11.
In case anyone is interested, this is what NSW's track-and-trace output looks like: link
There is a map, but check out the tables half way down the page.
Bondi Junction Event Cinemas Bondi Junction 500 Oxford Street
1:30pm to 4pm on Sunday 13 June 2021Anyone who attended the 1:45pm Screening of Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard in Cinema 1 is a close contact and must immediately get tested and self-isolate for 14 days regardless of the result.
Anyone who attended any other screening at the cinema during this time is a casual contact and must get tested and self-isolate until they receive a negative result. You should continue to monitor for symptoms and if any symptoms occur, get tested again.
Imagine getting covid as a result of going to see THAT!
Hence my pessimism. Today’s numbers are to be announced soon – but there were only 2 new cases yesterday, bringing the total “Bondi” cluster up to 11.
Fark. NSW Premier has just been on telly. 10 new cases today - cluster now at 21.
Although it sounds like 8 of these are household contacts of previously diagnosed cases, and were already in isolation.
One new one is a primary school student in the Bondi area...... school is currently being evacuated, all students and family members to go and get tested.
The other case seems to have caught it from the local Westfield - a shop assistant. Sounds like they are asking anyone that went to that shopping centre within the window of a few days to get tested.
Masks now mandatory indoors (we haven't been wearing masks for several months now) for the next week, but no other restrictions yet.
Pfffff - Well done Gladys (NSW premier) - doing a great job, and it's not often you get to say that about a career politician.
@batfink and an LNP one at that! 🙂
We had similar panic in Qld a couple of weeks' ago when the numpties from Melbourne brought Covid up to my neck of the woods.
I was at the hospital where they'd tested positive the day before when the results came through and staff were just starting to panic. Within an hour the Premier was on TV and the tracing lists were being published. Staff were getting pulled into contact tracing and our vax clinic queues began to swell - such that we couldn't cope. There really needs to be big outdoor walk-in clinics I think.
It grinds to see all the complacent folk suddenly rushing to get vaccinated just because it's suddenly real. As the director of our vax clinics said to me "when people say they're just waiting to see, I say to them "to see what? See if your sister will die?""
And the boomers that refuse to get vaccinated with AZ! My own in-laws wouldn't go until my wife told them they'll give you Pfizer if they have any regardless of your age. A retired senior executive nurse I know says she won't have any jab as a preference over AZ! Madness.
Yeah - seeing the Melbornian boomers on telly lamenting their decision not to get vaccinated (despite being eligible for months), as they headed into a 2 week lockdown was irritating as ****, as 40-50 year olds (ie: me) weren't eligible yet.
From what I've seen, people my age and younger are in a hurry to get jabbed (as they should be) so hopefully that'll bring our numbers up. I went to the main Sydney vaccination hub on Friday and there were plenty of people there, and a reassuring sense or urgency.
There really needs to be big outdoor walk-in clinics I think.
This is what I think too..... but my understanding is that we are still supply-constrained, so they are have to operate on a booking basis (to allow them to manage the second Jab too).
Thanks for this batfink - not getting much coverage over here in the UK.
Wish we'd had your sense of urgency with track and trace!
We've had walk-ins here (it was a bit awkward because people who'd booked were having to wait ages) and did set up a walk-in centre but that closes today. We were also taking any adults regardless of age.
My understanding is that the supply has been there, it's the reticence of the public that has been the problem.
Wish we’d had your sense of urgency with track and trace!
I had a text from a colleague the other week saying they couldn't make a meeting because they were contact tracing people who'd use a particular public toilet block!!!
they were contact tracing people who’d use a particular public toilet block!!!
Yeah we had that with the northern beaches outbreak - they were trying to find anyone that had used one of the toilets on Avalon beach (from memory). Seemed kinda ridiculous at the time, but am glad they're pursuing it to that degree.
Wish we’d had your sense of urgency with track and trace!
And I wish they'd had our sense of urgency with vaccination. Living a near-normal life, as many Australians have been, seems to be a major disincentive to get jabbed. Fingers crossed you can get on top of this one quickly, or it will be a miserable winter for you guys.
