I’ll say it again – right now, my biggest fear are the economic and social issues that I, and others like me, may spend the remaining decades of our lives paying for. Every month we extend this, is another month of economic ruin locked in.
150,000 people with an average of 10 more years life have died of this virus, that's a lot of economic damage right there.
that’s a lot of economic damage right there.
To be frank - how? I can't remember the exact figures, but last time I checked around a quarter of the people who died with Covid had dementia or Alzhimers. The only economic damage was nursing homes losing paying customers, although at the rate at which "younger old" folks are now getting healthcare issues normally reserved for the "older old", that might not be such an issue.
150,000 people, with 10 years average life left. 1.5 million years.
Working. Earning. Paying tax. Spending. Even if it is on care. Providing income and employment for others. Who spend it and pay tax.
The whole bigger picture thing.
150,000 people with an average of 10 more years life have died of this virus, that’s a lot of economic damage right there.
The average age of death in the UK is 81.
For the vast majority, these are not folk who had another 10 years of working or spending to do. Yes there are younger cohorts but that thankfully decreases in proportion.
The average age of death in the UK is 81.
For the vast majority, these are not folk who had another 10 years of working or spending to do. Yes there are younger cohorts but that thankfully decreases in proportion.
Maybe it's not as simple as you think
https://health.org.uk/news-and-comment/news/1.5-million-potential-years-of-life-lost-to-covid-19
I’ll say it again – right now, my biggest fear are the economic and social issues that I, and others like me, may spend the remaining decades of our lives paying for.
Its only money and we're some of the richest people on earth. I don't resent paying for things -what else is money for?
The average age of death in the UK is 81.
For the vast majority, these are not folk who had another 10 years of working or spending to do.
You're misunderstanding that figure - 81 isn't the age people typically die at. 'Life expectancy' figures are a number when you'd expect half the people born in a given year to have died - its a figure driven down, for instance by child mortality not old age. Statistically people who've reached the age of 80 years can expect to live for another 10 - so those people do have another 10 years of living and spending to do
If, they do in fact reduce the chances of passing it on by 60% then Delta is more contagious amongst vaccinated people then Alpha (Kent) was amongst unvaccinated people and way more contagious than the original strain which kicked this all off last March.
This is what worries me. As the virus moves to different strains that are less effective at killing people but much better at spreading through even a vaccinated population it could well lead to the whole of the NHS due to beds being tied up long-term instead of what we had in the first wave where people would be admitted, treated for a week or 3 then die, freeing up a bed for the next patient. I'm not being flippant about those deaths but it's something they have to plan for.
As below, even waiting until July, there will be a 3rd wave, that hopefully results in far less deaths, but it’s still likely to lead to 1200 new hospitalisations a day through August.
All the modelling does really point to the fact it's way too early to start fully opening up, or even that we may have gone too far. If the next peak is indeed in August/September then how the hell do we get things back under reasonable control before the winter flu season?
This is far from over.
Life expectancy at age 65 years was 18.8 years for males and 21.1 years for females, with an improvement of 6.3 weeks for both males and females in comparison with 2016 to 2018.
ONS data - so the average age of death in that cohort is around 83 to 86 years.
Now I've gone through the life expectancy tables and can't find ones relating to if you're currently 80 you have an expected 10 years to live. I'd find it strange that someone born later has a lower life expectancy than someone born earlier than them given improved health care and diets over the years.
Now back to the financial aspect, these are not in the main working age so that argument is moot and the spending side of it, instead of them spending it its passed down in inheritance (and the tax man) the cash and assets don't suddenly disappear.
yep, it's the same mis read that life expectancy in the middle ages was 30-something or whatever.
So many children died (dare I say often of diseases that we have eradicated or control by vaccination!) before reaching 5 or 10 or whatever that the average drops hugely.
Survive childhood and you mild not live to today's ages, but reach 10 and you could expect to live to 45, get to 25 and you could expect to make the 50s.
80 yo male - average is 89, 25% chance of 93 and 10% chance of 96
80yo female - 90, 94, 98 for the same chances
80 yo male – average is 89, 25% chance of 93 and 10% chance of 96
80yo female – 90, 94, 98 for the same chances
Close to the figures quoted in the article he was disagreeing with then? 😎
Now back to the financial aspect, these are not in the main working age so that argument is moot and the spending side of it, instead of them spending it its passed down in inheritance (and the tax man) the cash and assets don’t suddenly disappear.
My 82 year old dad manages to burn through his £20k a year of pensions supporting local businesses, and my inlaws are spending the proceeds of the sale of their house on care costs at about £2k a month between them.
That's pretty economically active to me, but you carry on.
Now back to the financial aspect, these are not in the main working age so that argument is moot and the spending side of it, instead of them spending it its passed down in inheritance (and the tax man) the cash and assets don’t suddenly disappear.
My 91 year old mum spends more than I do - £4,500 a month to live in a care home. The home is a not for profit and provides employment to loads of people from carers to chiropodists.
Edit: nevermind.
The thread itself died months ago.
I think it's kind of served it's purpose. Back in the days of death or wellness because it's only a bit of flu having Long Covid was a bit WTF is going on. More people have had Covid now so there's less need to give an idea of actually like or try to find out if your experience is the same as everyone else. Also the vaccine thread probably overtook it as a place to talk about experiences or share information - that being the next big Covid type event.
preferred In Utero, but whatevs.
I’m going to put Unplugged on now.
My wife is in tears over her second AZ jab. She isn’t an anti vaxxer, but is petrified of the blood clots. I’ve given up on rational arguments. She just doesn’t want it.
Can her GP authorise a different jab for second dose?
Definitely talk to the GP, they'll know what the options are. If its causing her that much anxiety, there must be a better way even if it means a delay to get a different vaccine.
Must be awful for you both
Thanks - that’s what I told her.
So, Dido Harding applies for job of NHS Excecutive. That’s reassuring….
But also, properly reassuring is some news today that we can expect a peak of cases in about 14 days which ties with TiReds admissions model up there. As much as the rise in case makes me anxious, is would appear that the case>Serious illness ratio has indeed changed a lot.
Superb Podcast..long but incredibly informative
Steve Kirsch can get a bit annoying but listen to the end.
2 of these guys are fully vaccinated.
Dr. Robert Malone is the inventor of mRNA Vaccine technology.
Mr. Steve Kirsch is a serial entrepreneur who has been researching adverse reactions to COVID vaccines.
Dr. Bret Weinstein is an evolutionary biologist.
Bret talks to Robert and Steve about the pandemic, treatment and the COVID vaccines.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/2GkYPouJqLMnMqDzMsdaeh?si=rV-3-suoRcyZr04tte2_gg&dl_branch=1
Or
Can her GP authorise a different jab for second dose?
The South koreans are going to start mixing AZ and Pfizer vaccines due to shortages of AZ. Also from the Guardian
"Several countries, including Canada and Spain, have already approved such dose-mixing – mainly due to concerns about rare blood clots linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine.
A Spanish study found that giving a dose of the Pfizer shot to people who already received the AstraZeneca vaccine is highly safe and effective, according to preliminary results."
However I would have thought that if mixing vaccines isn't yet approved in the UK then its highly unlikely a GP is going to be comfortable doing so.
It is allowed in exceptional circumstances. I just don't know how much latitude GP's have.
There are people in the UK already getting the mix. The examples I've heard of are after bad reactions to the first AZ dose, not just (understandable) worry about the second.
Oh, the podcast bikeforfreedom (whoever they are) is sharing has been very popular with the anti-vax "I found the truth on the dark web" people, I've seen it shared a lot in those circles.
I know it all comes down to the 'greater good" and we have large stocks of AZ.
If someone refuses the second AZ, will the health community really refuse an alternative available treatment, which they only didn't get due to the toss of a coin first time?
p.s. Thanks for saving me bothering with that podcast!!
If someone refuses the second AZ, will the health community really refuse an alternative available treatment, which they only didn’t get due to the toss of a coin first time?
From the point of view of Medics in the Vaccine centres, if someone arrives and refuses to have a certain jab, they'll be asked a few times, reassured etc, if it's their first jab they might, just might get a different one, but that might come down to the centre. My Wife's centre only started giving Pfizer recently and the one I went do doesn't have it, even though they changed the recommendation on storage, there are none in the building.
I can't imagine anyone at front-line level who will give a different 2nd dose than the first, no way. Until someone at national level makes that decision, it just wont happen.
I certainly don't expect it to happen in centres (I work as a vaccinator at them). It would need clinical permission from a GP. Whether that can happen yet I'm unsure. At the moment, against my advice, she wants to wait until that is possible.
My wife is in tears over her second AZ jab. She isn’t an anti vaxxer, but is petrified of the blood clots. I’ve given up on rational arguments. She just doesn’t want it.
@Dantsw13 for what it's worth, my first OXAZ jab in April left me battered (heavy legs and arms; aching lymph nodes on major joints and in clavicles; painful legs/arms/shoulders/lower back muscles; massive fatigue etc. like full on flu-symptoms) and off work, including a 4-day headache that wouldn't go with painkillers that I ended up ringing 111 about and ironically it began to subside within the hour. A very gentle 15min ride around the block felt ridiculously hard eight days after the jab, I couldn't ride at close to my pre-jab FTP until another week later.
Had my second jab on Tuesday, fatigue and body ache seemed to come on quicker than the first time. Felt really rough including a headache the following morning and called in sick, but by early evening I was starting to feel more normal. Took it very easy most of Thursday but did a 90min turbo session late afternoon, which felt far harder than z2 and in hindsight trying to tick off a Zwift route wasn't the smartest move but sometimes I need goals to ride.
The general trend is the second OxAZ jab gives less severe and shorter duration side effects. Thankfully I was part of that trend, including my partner and mum who both struggled with the first jab too. My sister felt far worse after her second Pfizer jab.
Two fairly unpleasant weeks with AZ 1, neck ache bad enough to keep me off the bike and bottle of wine head ache. I wasn't sure it was the vaccine but having had the same but milder for two days with AZ 2 I'm now confident in saying it was the vaccine. My doctor was OK with Moderna as second dose, in France this is standard practice for under 55s but I'm older. In the nd I had another AZ in the hope it wouldn't be as bad and it wasn't.
My wife is in tears over her second AZ jab. She isn’t an anti vaxxer, but is petrified of the blood clots. I’ve given up on rational arguments. She just doesn’t want it.
There was report here that the risk of blood clots with AZ 2 is 10 times lower than with AZ 1 so in line with Moderna or Pfizer.
bad enough to keep me off the bike and bottle of wine head ache
What we really want to know, is did the effects of the jabs keep you off the wine?
risk of blood clots with AZ 2 is 10 times lower than with AZ 1
That sound reassuring Ed... can you find a link?
Didn't touch a drop, I felt too fragile, Kelvin.
Le vaccin d’AstraZeneca a mauvaise presse en raison de rares cas de thrombose survenus après une première injection. Le risque est évalué à 1 sur 60 000 pour les premières doses et à 1 sur 600 000 pour les deuxièmes doses. Cet effet secondaire grave n’avait pas été détecté lors des études cliniques.
https://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/611628/vaccin-d-astrazeneca-dube-corrige-le-tir
It's not where I originally saw it so there aren't the references but the numbers are the same.
Brilliant, thanks.
In the end she came down from the shower & asked me to take her straight to the local walk-in clinic. All done.
Sadly the lack of trust in the government pandemic handling means people are wary of the motives for keeping giving the 40+ AZ whilst other countries stop.
Hopefully she doesn’t die as she will haunt me forever, poking my chest with blame!!
Just had my second AZ at 7 weeks, local walk in centre, absolutely empty, 20 minutes door to door (including 10 minutes in the car). Local FaceAche group seems to be moderated by an anti-vaccer who keeps deleting peoples posts about it. We're in a high case area, why wouldn't you rock up and get jabbed. Need to cancel my second scheduled for 5 weeks time now.
AZ1 I felt a bit rough for 24 hrs but not much compared with others, hoping this one will be even easier.
Looks like the only change in Wales for the next four weeks is relaxing of wedding rules... Guess I'm postponing my visit to stay with family I haven't seen since last July again.
We've just had some kids of old friends cancel their wedding again. Despite the lifting of the 30 people limit, in practice, the venue still has to follow COVID safe rules so a non-starter for them. Something to look forward to in 2022 now I guess.
Looks like the only change in Wales for the next four weeks is relaxing of wedding rules… Guess I’m postponing my visit to stay with family I haven’t seen since last July again.
Sorry to hear that, if they haven't used all their 'allocation' we are allowed to follow extended households with 2 other households.
Since we're sharing AZ anecdotes - my first jab had me feeling like I had flu for about 1h (fell out of bed, couldn't move off floor, wracked with shivers etc)! Fell asleep and felt fine (ish) next day. Second job - no ill effects whatsoever - I even got a Strava KOM back the next day I'd been chasing for months...
Everyone I know had much less severe reactions to second AZ jab than first (I work in a factory where entire workforce had opportunity to be vaccinated).
The EU has lost its legal case against AstraZeneca:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/astrazenca-eu-vaccine-supply-b1868514.html
Can someone explain to me vaccine efficacy
My understanding is that there are a number of measures, efficacy against infection, symptomatic illness, hospitalisation and death. For phizer the efficacy of each of these appear to be about 90%, which as my understanding goes, means for every 10 unvaccinated people who contract the virus only one vaccinated person will get it (assuming same exposure risk), and for every ten unvaccinated folks who contract the virus and show symptoms, only one vaccinated person will.
If that’s correct , by my calculations assuming same exposure risk, a vaccinated person is around 100 times less likely to contract covid and show symptoms than an unvaccinated person. And roughly a thousand times less likely to end up in hospital.
Is that correct, or have I misunderstood?
Ta
They don't compound together like that.
Taking AZ as the example... it's ~60% effective against symptomatic illness after two jabs, ~90% against hospitalisation. Both figures are based on considering everyone, the second isn't ignoring those that don't have symptoms.
On top of that, your figures don't make any sense to me at all, I'm afraid. Where does the "one hundred times" come from?
The EU has lost its legal case against AstraZeneca:
I think I read it as, yes the EU lost the case but AZ now has an obligation to supply with deadlines but at dramatically reduced quantities for those deadlines which should all be manageable from EU supply chains?
On top of that, your figures don’t make any sense to me at all, I’m afraid. Where does the “one hundred times” come from?
10 x as likely to contract the virus, then 10 x as likely to show symptoms once you do contract it.
As I said that may be way off the mark however
I’m struggling to see how there isn’t some kind of compound affect if it drastically reduces the likelihood of you getting it in first place, and also drastically reduces likelihood of you getting particularly ill if you do end up getting it.
