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We already have a phased return to primary schools. The government have many schools at 40% attendance now, when it was 10% during the spring lockdown. Also, takeaways… outdoor public places… plenty of things already open compared to that old infographic.
Suspect the infection rate will be kept bubbling along at a level acceptable to the crg as though there's nothing that could be done otherwise. 😟
Expectations for the speed of return to normality by vaccination are over-rated.
I have to admit to not paying a huge amount of attention.
But are people honestly expecting "normal" in the next few months? Is that a line punted out by Government I've (quite easily) missed?
I'm not really expecting back to normal this year, although I am hoping for some return towards it but still factoring in a certain amount of new normal.
But are people honestly expecting “normal” in the next few months?
If they listen to Johnson, why wouldn't they expect that?
If they listen to Whitty et al, no, they're ready for a long slow release of measures.
Of course, as happened last year, Johnson might win out, and all caution thrown to the wind. Hopefully not.
You can bet your bum a great number of unwashed will read "it's all over" when the words were actually "vaccine rollout begun".
If they listen to Johnson, why wouldn’t they expect that?
I honestly don't listen to him. I guess that'll do it.
I have no doubt that once enough of the conservative voting demographic are vaccinated, the rest of us will be thrown under the bus in the name of 'protecting the economy'
Huh, just realised I'm fantasizing about running a line in the Ochils that follows a ridge, Commonedge Hill to Seamab and I'm looking forward to it with a similar level of anticipation to a 2 week ski trip to Whistler January 2020.
Its basically just a broad grassy ridge but seems like ******* running nirvana at the minute.
in the name of ‘protecting the economy’
I’m not so sure, Johnson and Sunak seem to be backing away from that approach this year… almost as if they have learnt their lesson. I’m hopeful.
Didn't realise that is how they were prioritising the vaccines Jamo-bo, hopefully get mine next week then and off on holiday it is , enjoy yourself under the bus.... This thread has been amazing at times and also comical, I think a bike ride is in order for some.
I’m not so sure, Johnson and Sunak seem to be backing away from that approach this year… almost as if they have learnt their lesson. I’m hopeful.
That's how I view it also. They probably, due to the vaccine, see this as the last lockdown so want to make sure it's finally done correctly. Well, fingers crossed.
If they listen to Johnson, why wouldn’t they expect that?
If they listen to Whitty et al, no, they’re ready for a long slow release of measures.
Nail. Head.
Easing of measures over the next few months has the real possibility of dividing the country even further than it already is as people's viewpoint will be driven by who they listen to. My dad got his vaccine jab yesterday evening and while they were there (mum drove him) they both overheard a few people saying that they could now go see friends and family without risk in a few days. Thankfully I've convinced dad it really does take a bit of time to become effective and that it still relies on everyone else being vaccinated, nationally and internationally, before he can go on a holiday and enjoy sitting in the pub.
The tone from the govt does seem to be a bit different this time round, presumably due to no Cummings to twist it, so hopefully lessons have been learned but I still think that:
I have no doubt that once enough of the conservative voting demographic are vaccinated, the rest of us will be thrown under the bus in the name of ‘protecting the economy’
is a strong possibility. The real test will be what kind of level everything is at going into next autumn and winter, just bobbing along this summer at similar levels to last year won't be good enough.
But are people honestly expecting “normal” in the next few months? Is that a line punted out by Government I’ve (quite easily) missed?
I’m not really expecting back to normal this year, although I am hoping for some return towards it but still factoring in a certain amount of new normal.
+1
I can see some full year groups back in Primary Schools from 8-March - just so Boris can say they met that commitment but i very much doubt any full year groups will be back in secondary schools before Easter.
If the Lockdown is lifted from 8-March it'll be a slow trip back down through the Tiers, 2-3 weeks in each, but i can see restrictions staying in place all year - probably like last summer - rule of 6, no big gatherings, limits on numbers at weddings/funerals, etc.
Limited overseas travel might be possible by the summer but this will be destination sensitive - Spain have already said they don't want any tourists until 'late summer'
I think some restrictions will be strengthened over next winter - masks on public transport, etc..
Anyone who thinks it'll all be over by Easter' has no understanding of this..
I'm hoping that the Tìer system will play a part again, allowing some areas faster release from restrictions. Really need to clamp down on Tier-tourism more effectively though.
But are people honestly expecting “normal” in the next few months? Is that a line punted out by Government I’ve (quite easily) missed?
If you look at today's newspaper headlines, I can see why those who - for maybe valid reasons of keeping their sanity - have avoided following the pandemic in detail might think that the end is nigh.
Whitty et al are quietly plugging away at being cautious and stressing a long time timescale. Ministers are loudly saying how well it's going and not mentioning timescales at all.
I do think the government are more cautious about an early relaxation this time. To lose one lump of 50,000 dead is a misfortune, to lose two lumps of 50,000 dead looks like carelessness* so to risk a third, I think even they can see how even the CRG might begin to rethink.
*Apologies to Oscar Wilde.
If the government do decide to ignore the expert scientific advice again and reopen too soon then I would love to see Whitty, JVT and all the senior science and health experts resign en masse and put the onus completely on the politicians.
(Of course, we don't know how long the vaccine will offer protection for and where we may be next winter. And the government need to be discussing that as well)
The sun is shining here today, I've been for a walk, and I'm feeling kind of alright compared to the last couple of days. The motorbike I ordered is starting to show up at dealers now so I'm starting to think more about spring time and getting out on it. Small wins, eh? It is also nice to see numbers falling everywhere at the moment.
tpbiker, can i ask why you feel so entitled to get a vaccine over another group?
All I'm looking to do is be vaccinated in the group the nhs have consistently told me I belong to, ie those that fall into the clinically vulnerable group, group 6. If the nhs had said theyll vaccinate shop workers before the 'clinically vulnerable' then fair enough. But they didn't, they made it quite clear that they were prioritising based on risk of illness.
I'm arguing I'm entitled to be included in the group I've been told I belong to all along, It's the dept of health that have prioritised that group over shop workers and teachers, not me.
Also, if you work for a bank you should hopefully know that not all of us have been able to stay at home every day. So saying 'suck it up and stay at home a little longer' may apply to you, but not those of us that are required to go into the office.
Anyway, I'm done defending my position on here. I know from the asthma groups im a member of that pretty much all of the members are expecting to be in group 6 (Asthma uk told us as much in December, the dept of health confirmed criteria to them before Christmas then backtracked).
And it doesnt just affect asthma sufferers, ME, folks with kidney issues, learning disabilities, all expecting to in group 6 and many are going to be disappointed. There are many many more people than me who will be pissed by this...
@stcolin glad to hear you're feeling more positive. I'm looking forward to getting out on two wheels again 🙂 What bike have you bought?
There are many many more people than me who will be pissed by this…
I think you meant pleased that they will get the vaccine only 18 months are a new virus took hold of the world and scientists worked day and night to achieve this. You should be grateful we are not waiting years let alone months..
All I’m looking to do is be vaccinated in the group the nhs have consistently told me I belong to, ie those that fall into the clinically vulnerable group, group 6. If the nhs had said theyll vaccinate shop workers before the ‘clinically vulnerable’ then fair enough. But they didn’t, they made it quite clear that they were prioritising based on risk of illness.
I can understand that but one thing this pandemic has shown is nothing stays the same. Priorities change to coin an awful work phrase "its a fluid situation."
Also, if you work for a bank you should hopefully know that not all of us have been able to stay at home every day. So saying ‘suck it up and stay at home a little longer’ may apply to you, but not those of us that are required to go into the office.
Yep, I do know that and I know a lot of people have still been going in when allowed. Im technically "back office staff" which is bank for a product designer who designs the app/website stuff so im never in a branch. As for me telling you to suck it up that was simply in reference to what you have told others to do. Treat others as you wish to be treated and all that, dont ask others to do what you're not willing to do yourself.
I’m hoping that the Tìer system will play a part again, allowing some areas faster release from restrictions. Really need to clamp down on Tier-tourism more effectively though.
Would be nice, but some people seem to be too hard-of-thinking or selfish to make it work. There are no resources to police people moving from tier to tier, either. We spent the autumn surrounded by higher tier areas, and the amount of people coming in because our pubs/restaurants were open was ridiculous.
All I’m looking to do is be vaccinated in the group the nhs have consistently told me I belong to, ie those that fall into the clinically vulnerable group, group 6.
from our position in the front line, we’ve not been told that the priority groups will change. Our pt lists are based on coding at the practice level, we’re not having to make decisions with lists of pts on a excel spreadsheet, or anything like that. we do a search based on the codes, it spits out a list of pts and we invite them to make an appt via a text.
if you’re coded for severe asthma, you’ll get a vaccine in group 6 sometime after the 15th
I’m hoping that the Tìer system will play a part again
I hope not. I think they were shown to be a failure. The whole of England should move through each phase of the lifting of restrictions together.
All I’m looking to do is be vaccinated in the group the nhs have consistently told me I belong to, ie those that fall into the clinically vulnerable group, group 6
I don’t know why you think this won’t happen, group 6 is basically every adult under 65 who normally gets offered an nhs flu jab. Asthma, diabetes, heart disease, chronic kidney disease, etc. We’re nearly done with groups 1-4 locally, so I’d assume that pattern is repeated nationally give or take. Depending on numbers the next cohort may be group 5 or it may be groups 5 and 6. The invites will continue to come.
The whole of the UK should move through each phase of the lifting of restrictions together.
Otherwise you just get this:
Tier-tourism
If they listen to Johnson, why wouldn’t they expect that?
Leadership is taking hard decisions. The easy ones make themselves.
Sadly the ERG sorry CRG tail is going to be wagging that Boris dog again. Just caught something saying some Conservative MPs are eyeing up the Scottish schools re-opening timescale. There is always going to be an empowered vocal niche minatory who's tendency is always going to be last in first out and not learning. Any response is always going to be hamstrung. There is present risk of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory (again) as the easy decision is keeping the party happy. The irony is still as a group the ERG / CRG very probably want to see the UK as Singapore on Thames when it comes to business but don't want to take that approach to public health.
Thought I'd chip in. Apologies if it's been mentioned.
Everyone was so keen to make signs thanking the key workers back in the first lockdown but now there's a chance of actually thanking them with an early vaccine then people not so keen?
What bike have you bought?
The new Triumph Trident 660. Don't have a delivery date just yet, but slowly getting excited.
I have no doubt that once enough of the conservative voting demographic are vaccinated, the rest of us will be thrown under the bus in the name of ‘protecting the economy’
Is that demographic based on age or education level (both significant indicators)?
My dad got his vaccine jab yesterday evening and while they were there (mum drove him) they both overheard a few people saying that they could now go see friends and family without risk in a few days.
This is happening.
My father had his first jab yesterday (yay).
Today someone in his semi-sheltered block of retirement flats has put a notice up on the noticeboard about having a little get together (albeit in the garden) in a fortnight, now everyone is getting their vaccine....
There are 66 flats, all over 55 years of age. Eldest is my dad's neighbour at 99...
Otherwise you just get this:
Yes, the whole UK ideally, but the government have full control over England, so all England moving through the lifting of various levels of restrictions together is in their gift. There is also the problem of different terms times to consider as regards the other nations, but where possible, all the mainland nations getting in step would be welcome. But keeping businesses in some English regions shut for months with little support, while allowing new variants of the virus to develop in other areas enjoying a mini boom for their shops and pubs, isn’t a choice I want to see the UK government make again.
Would be nice, but some people seem to be too hard-of-thinking or selfish to make it work. There are no resources to police people moving from tier to tier, either. We spent the autumn surrounded by higher tier areas, and the amount of people coming in because our pubs/restaurants were open was ridiculous.
Sadly this is so true. I've been absolutely amazed at how little issue it has been for me travelling to my parent's house twice a week to help with their care. Was expecting to get the occasional stop on the journey as it's a fair distance and on busy roads but never had an issue. The only time I've had the slightest hint of an issue was when their local PCSO knocked on the door on her usual round of the neighbourhood and did a double-check after someone had reported me for being there. The PCSO knew why I was there and wouldn't have bothered if she wasn't passing by anyway. It's perfectly possible for anyone to just wander around wherever and whenever they want right now during full lockdown unnoticed without much effort. Keeping people from travelling between tiers is total fantasy. Going back to tiers is basically opening the country up without actually saying it's open.
There is present risk of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory (again) as the easy decision is keeping the party happy.
Is a real danger. They've already started backpedalling on the quarantine for people entering the UK via airports, stating it's unworkable, despite lots of other countries doing it and calls for it to be done here going back to April last year.
I fear our success at getting the vaccine out there quickly is going to lead us to lose sight of the finish line, we're in danger of celebrating too early and that celebration undoing all our hard work.
I don’t know why you think this won’t happen, group 6 is basically every adult under 65 who normally gets offered an nhs flu jab.
Doc, your post highlights the issue perfectly. From day one that's exactly what the nhs have been saying, if your asthma is severe enough to be offered a flu jab, usually defined I believe as continuous use of steroid inhaler, but you weren't advised to shield, then you were classed as 'clinically vulnerable', which is what group 6 is comprised off.
The more eagle eyed asthma sufferers amongst us however spotted that the jcvi green Book criteria for group 6 was in fact exactly the same as for group 4, ie regular use of systemic steroids. Folks queried this with asthma uk, who in turn received assurance from dept of health on 22nd Dec that the majority of asthma sufferers who weren't shielding would be in group 6, same criteria as for flu jab. All good.
Except then loads of folks including myself were told by their gp that were weren't eligible for group 6 as they were going strictly by jcvi guidelines, which rules out the vast majority of asthma sufferers.
Asthma uk initially told everyone not to worry, the guidance is just needing updated. They are now saying they are challenging the rational for group 6, they've been doing that for over a month
So (as I remember you are a gp), we may end up with a situation where if I was in your surgery I'd get a jab as a priority, but in my own I won't.
Actually I don’t think Asthma is a big risk factor for death from covid.
Mild asthma basically has no effect, severe asthma has an increased risk but less than being Black or Asian.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2521-4/figures/3
Bearing in mind that is a log scale the overriding risk factor is age
Yep, but it's not just about severity of asthma it's about asthma type. Its not binary. Likewise a study has just shown that asthmatics are more at risk of long covid, which makes sense given our already compromised lungs
As an aside from that, why do you think my asthma is mild? Having to use my ventolin reliever 3 times a day last year isn't the sign of mild asthma.
Anyhow, there is no definitive evidence either way, in same way as there is no definite evidence for teachers being more at risk. What I would say is that at no point has the nhs said we aren't at additional risk, so until they do ill continue to think I'm entitled to be in group 6.
Not having a go. Just trying to reassure you @tpbiker.
I quoted the figures for mild and severe Asthma. Clearly you would come under severe but the relative risk isn’t that high, but point taken every case is different.
I have a relative in her 70’s with bad asthma and when I found out she had covid I really thought she wouldn’t make it, but in the end she had a very mild illness that she managed at home.
Reassuring to know thanks @mudmuncher
Must say alot of those numbers surprised me. If im Reading them right chronic heart desease (which is often given as a comorbility) is only a risk factor of around 1.2, less than that of an ex smoker? Likewise high blood pressure isn't a risk factor at all.
That doesn't sound right to me, am i reading it wrongly?
You are reading it correctly, though whether the data is robust I don’t know.
The high blood pressure one is interesting, you are actually at less chance of dying if you have high blood pressure vs having normal BP. That might be due to blood pressure meds. I remember there was concern at the start of the pandemic they could increase your risk but have subsequently been found to reduce your risk of death from CV.
Edit:- maybe I need to take up smoking again!
maybe I need to take up smoking again!
I was actually going to ask how high a BMI you needed to be able to jump the queue.
I was actually going to ask how high a BMI you needed to be able to jump the queue.
The point was being an active smoker actually protects you from covid. @tpbiker if you start smoking you can offset your asthma risk! Well from covid anyway, I imagine it wouldn’t do your asthma much good.
I remember reading way back when covid hit wuhan that there was proportionally a lot less smokers being admitted to hospital than non smokers. Whether it’s the layer of tar in the lungs stopping the virus getting into the cells, or the smoke itself I’m not sure.
Interesting! Does the same go for weed?
The point was being an active smoker actually protects you from covid. @tpbiker if you start smoking you can offset your asthma risk! Well from covid anyway, I imagine it wouldn’t do your asthma much good.
Interestingly I've always had what I would call mild asthma since a youth, and I was always a fairly light smoker. Then 3 years ago I gave up the tabs, and ever since then my asthma has got progressively worse. I thought I may have copd actually, but apparently not given my response to medication. Turns out that smoking is good for you after all.
And basically, from that study, rather than vaccinate younger folks with comorbilities, just hand out free fags.
or spliffs!
Roach..
Your user name makes sense now ..
Given the vaccine roll out, the country then going mad over Summer into autumn, the country then needing a second dose of jabs for the new strains...
Am I being pessimistic by thinking we still might need a lock down next winter?
Thoughts guys?