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Well, that’s conclusive then
Did I for one second say it was? Hence in the very next sentence I asked if there was any evidence they were at greater risk. But you knew that already didn't you, you just fancied being a bit of a dick rather than providing an answer, unlike matt.
I wouldn’t. I don’t have a parade of random people passing through my workspace every day
Good for you. You probably also don't have a medical condition that the nhs have told you for 10 months puts you at greater risk of illness.
Good for you. You probably also don’t have a medical condition that the nhs have told you for 10 months puts you at greater risk of illness.
I have
And I think that if something has been classed as “essential” and able to open through the pandemic then the people who work there should be given the jab sooner than me.
Those in essential retail have been exposed all the way through, they should be higher up the list than me, a 40 year old with asthma.
I’d personally be really pissed if a healthy 25 year-old shop worker got a vaccine before myself
And if I was a 25 year old shop worker (stacking shelves with hundreds of people walking right past me every day), I'd be really pissed if a 50 year old who has been working from home (or furloughed, doing sweet F.A.) for the last 11 months got a vaccine before myself.
The shop worker (teacher, transport worker etc etc) HAS to go out to work every day and risk their health.
The older person is at higher risk of mortality if they catch covid, but has very little need to be near any other person - work from home, home delivery of food (by a young, unvaccinated person) etc. They might WANT to go out and about but they don't NEED to, so the risk should be negligible.
It is a disgrace that real key workers who have been out at work for the last 11 months are not being prioritised for vaccination, yet people sitting in the comfort and safety of their own homes are.
I'd rather see my postman be vaccinated next month over a 60 year old as my postie might be delivering covid into hundreds of houses every day.
if said shop work has spent the whole pandemic being told they are “essential” ie works at your local bike shop, supermarket or even coffee shop why shouldn’t they get it before you
I'd sympathise with them..
I've spent the entire 10 months been told by the government im at greater risk of death due to health conditions... hasn't got me any further up the vaccine priority list though either has it.
Shop workers and teachers should just suck it up, a bit like I've been told to do.
Those in essential retail have been exposed all the way through, they should be higher up the list than me, a 40 year old with asthma.
Fair enough if you think that. At least you are talking from a position of experience
I’d rather see my postman be vaccinated next month over a 60 year old as my postie might be delivering covid into hundreds of houses every day.
And tell me how vaccinating the postie would stop him delivering covid into hundreds of houses every day exactly?
Recently ordered an item with delivery to a Collect+ location - a local convenience store.
Went to collect - no control on numbers in store, no social distancing, no hand sanitiser for customer use, I was the only person wearing a mask, no notice on door or window about covid/social distancing/face coverings.
The perfect set-up for transmission and spread.
That is probably replicated across the country.
I couldn't wait to get out and will never be going there again.
Shop workers and teachers should just suck it up, a bit like I’ve been told to do.
Shop worker and teachers HAVE been sucking it up
Well, this is nice.
Shop worker and teachers HAVE been sucking it up
And you have my sympathy, I wasn't being sarcastic when I said that. I would actually find it pretty hard to argue against teachers getting it next if I'm honest. But shop workers, not sure.
Are you going to keep it limited to essential shops like supermarkets? What about non essential shops? Or do we keep those closed?
People like delivery drivers and post men aren't at greater risk of catching it than anyone else
Well, this is going well......
I am a teacher in Scotland. I am working from home. The furthest I went from my house last week was the 200 steps to the postbox to post off my Covid test. This week the furthest I have been is the 200 steps to the postbox to post off my Covid test. My wife (also a teacher) is working from home. She has had asymptomatic Covid at some point in December - picked up by monthly antibody testing - but did not pass it to me, as my antibody test showed no detected exposure. The only place she could have picked it up is School. We have no other mixing, except the Tesco fella putting the crates on our doorstep.
I am unlikely to test positive for Covid as I don't go anywhere and no-one comes here (actually, except an ONS Nurse doing the Covid survey, and if I caught Covid from them it would be ironic).
Testing teachers weekly when they are working from home is a little pointless, and I hope that the results of my tests are not used to say schools are safe.
I'm not sure why government are even trying to pretend they are safe tbh. They obviously aren't.. not just for teachers but for anyone with a kid, and by extension the rest of the community
Makes zero sense that mum and dad can't go to work, or mix with more than one other person outdoors when little jonny can spend his entire day mixing with his mates and then bring it back into the household, where zero social distancing will occur.
BBC reality check about the risk to teachers
It’s not about teachers dying, it is about them being in work, on site, mixing with loads of kids indoors, and not getting ill, or isolating, or infecting their loved ones.
I absolutely agree. The knock on effects for teachers being off work are probably greater than a shelf stacker at Tesco.
MrsMC has been vaccinated as a frontline social worker - interesting that they feature in the stats on the article
And tell me how vaccinating the postie would stop him delivering covid into hundreds of houses every day exactly?
Well... whilst it isn't 100% known whether the vaccine helps reduce transmission, let me give you an example.
My parents are almost 80 (who haven't yet been vaccinated) and their postie is younger than me. He is now off work with covid19. He spends his working week doing his job walking past loads of people on the pavement, touching hundreds of letterboxes, delivering letters (and possibly his covid) to others.. my parents are shitting themselves about what they might have been on their mail as well as being concerned for their postman.
Had this important key worker been vaccinated, the chances are that he wouldn't now be I'll with covid, or possibly have passed it to others. (I understand that postal workers have to also work in the sorting office with no social distancing, then go out delivering the mail?)
Yet 50-60 year olds who work from home or are furloughed get the vaccine before younger key workers when the wfh/furloughed should be at almost zero risk of catching the virus.. if they stick to the rules..
I feel like I should win some of prize. I teach guitar in schools (well I did pre Covid) and also work part time in a supermarket now (I even did some shelf stacking last weekend....one bloke even sneezed on me)
If that prize could be a vaccine, that'd be ace. Also, lolz at the mental gymnastics about giving teachers but not shop workers the vaccine. It's because shop worker is a poor person job, plain and simple.
Front of shop workers, and passenger facing staff on public transport, should also be a priority. Personally I’d put them before teachers, they’re out there dealing with more people, but I’d also expect teachers to be vaccinated before making the call to pack out school buildings with a return to all pupils attending again.
my parents are shitting themselves about what they might have been on their mail
With respect to your folks, and my elderly mum is a bit paranoid about this as well, the chance of getting it from your mail is bugger all. And if you are that worried about it just wash your hands after opening, as I pointed out to my mum.
Contrary to what both our mum's may believe, surprisingly there hasn't yet been an outbreak in a street due to infected mail.
The postie himself may get it from the sorting office, but that's his only risk. Probably similar to mine when I eventually am forced to go back into office full time, which if we open things up sooner rather than later, will be sometime just before the 4th wave hits us I expect.
Shop workers and teachers should just suck it up, a bit like I’ve been told to do.
I get your in a stressful situation vulnerable so potentially shielding. You may feel like a fit 25yr old is a waste of a vaccine because they won't get "very sick." But unless you're in a position where you can't work from home a 25yr old shop worker may need it more than you for many reasons. Personally I feel once these first groups are done they should do who ever can get this country moving again no matter their age.
Try being me fit 30s bloke who has spent the year wfh... I'm so far down the list I'm not even on it /attempt at a joke
Stay safe
Larry_Lamb
This makes me cringe every time I hear it, it really needs to be put to bed now it’s an overused term.
It’s the new literally.
I can't begin to say how completely benign I meant that term to be when I used it.
It’s because shop worker is a poor person job, plain and simple.
No its not that simple at all. it's because, as someone already pointed out, the country can't afford to have loads of teachers off sick. That was one of the main reasons for vaccinating all the nhs staff as a priority, to keep them healthy so they could keep working through the pandemic.
If your average shop worker or pub landlord gets covid then there is very little knock on effect. Just like why I don't think bank workers (My industry) and many others should be prioritised.
Hang on, so you're equating shop workers to pub landlords? I'm fairly sure that pubs have been shut for vast swathes of the last 12 months. Supermarkets have stayed open (mine did shut briefly when 60/189 of us tested positive for Covid).
I'm fairly sure that the country can't afford to have all of its supermarket staff off sick either unless they're all of a sudden going to be producing their own food!
I’m fairly sure that the country can’t afford to have all of its supermarket staff off sick either unless they’re all of a sudden going to be producing their own food!
100% agree we cant
But given we've had supermarkets open pretty much non stop since the pandemic started, with very few closures, I think it's not a very likely scenario, despite your example. None of the 5 supermarkets round me have closed one dsy in 10 months.
Interestingly though, one of our operations centres had to shut because of an outbreak. Maybe we should prioritise then as well yeah?
As for pub landlord comment, that was a response to someone earlier saying we should be vaccinating people working in pubs and restraunts.
Its got nothing to do with how much folks get paid. It's what value their jobs add to society and the impact if they are off sick.
Teachers = 30 kids can't go to school
Nhs staff And care home workers (many who won't earn much more than minimum wage which kind of sinks your 'it's only because they get paid less' argument) = sick people don't get treated
Supermarket worker = slightly longer queues at tills and perhaps slightly less choice on the shelves
Edit..I'll add in bank workers as well so you don't think I'm picking on shop workers , that's my own industry. Close an operation centre for a few days and customers have to wait a little longer for stuff. Its hardly pivotal to society functioning is it. Can't be done from home though.
most recent issue of 'more or less' on R4 covers risks to teachers. also compared pcr to lateral flow tests. if you've finished arguing over who should be on the B Ark.
i also wonder how all these kids who are missing out on schooling or uni and finding it hard would deal with the life long knowledge that they may have brought covid home to their parents or grandparents, and either led to their untimely deaths, or saw them carting an oxygen cylinder around with them for life. this is hard. for everyone. there's no easy time of life to go through this shit. but it's not a war. the shops are open. netflix is real.
personally i'd be happy for anyone in a public facing role to get vaccinated ahead of me but i don't see how you make that work practically. speaking as someone who's GF is a headteacher at a large primary, who also has asthma severe enough to hospitalise her every now and then, and who has had to shut her school due to an outbreak.
the vaccination process is moving at pace now. everyone calm down and we'll get this done.
UK vaccine rollout is going well, no doubt, and we are kind of lucky to be arguing about who gets it next
but in the UK covid deaths are well above other European countries, in last 2 weeks the UK has seen nearly twice the number of Germany & 3x numbers of France, Italy, Spain (and looks worse in total excess deaths) https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps
Only portugal seems to be in as bad a state as the UK
I still cant get my head around the disparities between seemingly similar countries, is it just proceeding in waves?
As buffet says “only when the tide goes out do you get to see who’s swimming naked.”
Coronavirus is the tide going out, and the nations health is the swimsuit. The uk has been found out. Countries that do well protecting their elderly and enjoy good healthcare services have done much better than those who do not. I am afraid that the uk really is the sick man of Europe. Worse health and worse healthcare. Sorry.
As for teachers. It’s one of those “must be true” things that is not so easy to show. That means there is probably a real effect, but the odds ratio is modest, I’d accept a 50% increase. That’s about the same as “increased transmission of the new strain and possible additional pathogenicity. For reference healthcare workers had an odds ratios of about 4x in some studies, if I recall correctly. That’s a reflection of dose of virus during care. Large effects reveal themselves in small trials.
Deaths are really not the story though. Symptomatic cases and possibly matched hospitalisation rates are where the signal will lie. Matching will be the challenge here. I simply don’t believe there is no effect. I remember when children did not transmit the virus - irony alert.
There really is no shame in saying we don’t know, or it is reasonable to assume but hard to estimate. Embracing Uncertainty is a good thing in the scientific method.
I'm currently listening to the introduction of a forum to discuss my local Australian health service's specific approach to vaccination (we won't start until late Feb/March).
The Australian government has helpfully shared its strategy in a really simple document.
vaccination roll-out strategy
I can't find anything as simple as this in the UK Gov site (unusual, it's normally really good).
There's been some great advantages to being so physically isolated - I think we've had the luxury of watching what works and doesn't from a safe distance.
We’ve all been coping in various ways for almost a year. It’s been harder for some than others for sure. But squabbling over a couple more months delay in getting vaccinated - something that was basically a pipe dream until recently - seems a bit pointless to me. Of course we all think we are important (well actually I’m not that bothered, but I recognise my privilege in being able to take that view). But really, it’s very unlikely to make much difference. Widespread vaccination makes us all safer even before they get to our place in the queue. There are bigger issues to argue about.
That ONS data the bbc link is based on
Teachers in England and Wales were not at significantly higher risk of death from coronavirus than the working age population, ONS figures covering March-December 2020 suggest.
Schools were only open in sept-dec so its clearly a flawed conclusion from the data, or maybe a correct conclusion trying to to be used in an incorrect manner. Being a teacher isnt the issue, its teaching in a classroom with 250kids a day which the worry!
tpbiker, can i ask why you feel so entitled to get a vaccine over another group? I think it simply comes down to risk of infection and risk of infecting. If all you're doing like me is working from home (i also work for a bank) how at risk are you? After all you could just "suck it up" and stay at home a little longer. I see a handful of people a day but being in my 30s may (if we go by age) mean i get a vaccine before the people at my local coffee shop who are in their 20s and they see hundreds a day. Teachers, hospitality, and supermarket staff could spread the virus a lot more than myself if they were asymptomatic.
Of course we all think we are important (well actually I’m not that bothered, but I recognise my privilege in being able to take that view).
I think thats what irks me the most about the original comment the entitlement of it.
As buffet says “only when the tide goes out do you get to see who’s swimming naked.”
Coronavirus is the tide going out, and the nations health is the swimsuit.
That was a truly beautiful comment until the mental image of the person emerging from the waves merged from Ursula Andress to Boris Johnson
The fact is, vaccines are being prioritised by risk of severe infection and death, so age and clinical vulnerability. At a population level it's a blunt tool but it has to be.
I have no problem with frontline staff like MrsMC, teachers, shop workers getting vaccinated ahead of me as a 51 year old home worker. But I won't be going to back to non essential shops, cafes pubs and restaurants and social mixing until either I'm vaccinated or infection rates are right down low again. Never mind the indirect risk I face from a wife who is in and out of people's houses and two teenagers going back to school.
I am afraid that the uk really is the sick man of Europe. Worse health and worse healthcare. Sorry.
And in this case, I'd imagine being a nation of fatties that rarely walk more than the length of themselves is a contributor.
Never mind the indirect risk I face from a wife who is in and out of people’s houses
quickly scanning I misread this as "in and out of people's trousers". I know jobs are scarce nowadays, good to see the oldest profession is still there as an option.
I have no problem with frontline staff like MrsMC, teachers, shop workers getting vaccinated ahead of me as a 51 year old home worker. But I won’t be going to back to non essential shops, cafes pubs and restaurants and social mixing until either I’m vaccinated or infection rates are right down low again. Never mind the indirect risk I face from a wife who is in and out of people’s houses and two teenagers going back to school.
Pretty much the same here, I'd also be happy to be further down the queue behind deprived areas, and anyone else less fortunate than us lot on here.
Seems fairly simple to me- if you want to jump the vaccine queue then pull your thumb out of your arse and volunteer at the many, many vaccine centres.
And I just want to add that it seems perfectly obvious that front line workers such as teachers / public transport / supermarkets etc should be next in line. If you’re vulnerable, stay at home for a few more months.
A_A you're correct but as mentioned in the program, cases were low through the summer when should were out but they were low on wider society too. Don't get me wrong I'd be happy for teachers to be right up there with health workers and emergency services etc. particularly how much harder already hard pressed staff are being asked to work under stressful circumstances and I agree that intuitively teachers would appear to be at greater risk (though that's going to be massively variable when as far as I can see schools are basically doing all their own risk assessments and deciding their own courses of action) however the data available currently does not support it. That doesn't mean data isn't there it just isn't being gathered effectively. Fwiw the closure of the school I'm talking about was brought about by a member of staff continuing to work for nearly a week despite feeling unwell.
Nadim Zahawi a stuttering wreck being questioned on Radio Scotia this morning, he was awful. Put on the spot about actual numbers of people vaccinated in English care homes as opposed to vaccinations offered, and about why ScotGov isn't allowed to publish vaccine supply stock levels.
that’s going to be massively variable when as far as I can see schools are basically doing all their own risk assessments and deciding their own courses of action
That's a very valid point. Anecdotally, from our kids, their friends, teacher friends and what I read on here, there have been vast differences in the way schools have tried to put Covid protocols in place, reflected in apparent teacher infections and absence. Nowhere is "Covid secure" but the difference in approach seems huge. Some school SLTs have not helped themselves, though it daresay that the same applies to other businesses/industries
I'm fairly relaxed about teachers getting the vaccine or not tbh, but
however the data available currently does not support it
What you should be saying is the the available data do not allow a comparison to be made. The data doesnt support it nor does the data contradict it.
Every logical thought process I follow tells me that teachers and police should get the vaccine ahead of the Gen pop. I think supermarket staff too and public transport customer facing roles.
Whilst I want the vaccine, I can’t justify getting it ahead of any of the above.
BBC website reporting a new trial mixing second doses in the U.K.
The fact is, vaccines are being prioritised by risk of severe infection and death, so age and clinical vulnerability. At a population level it’s a blunt tool but it has to be.
I’ll be blunt. Expectations for the speed of return to normality by vaccination are over-rated. We are first vaccinating those who would die. We will see a decline now with a two-week half-life from lockdown, faster than this would be very good indication of vaccine effects. Fact is the hospitals are full of people without risk factors. They aren’t dying, and are recovering and discharged. But the burden on healthcare is what is limiting contact. Without a sizeable fraction of people protected from morbidity, plus an upside of reduced transmissions, there really are no simple relaxations for some time to come. Some transparency from HMG on this would be welcome.
Unlocking completely by Easter? At 3M a week and 50M adults, we have about 40M more adults to protect first. I don’t know about supplies, but I suspect these may become limiting. I’d say another three months or more. Six months looks more reasonable for a decent return, presuming protection is durable. Schools back after Easter for sure, shops too. Hospitality? I suspect limited as per Tier 3.
Leadership is taking hard decisions. The easy ones make themselves.
[tl:dr] vaccine will make deaths fall faster than lockdown, but don’t get over excited until a high proportion of adults are protected. Herd immunity will be an upside.
Unlocking completely by Easter?
That wont happen
Remember this:
[img] 
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It'll be a similar plan of open schools in March, then a tiered approach of Retail/Hospitality in subsequent months on the proviso that cases/admissions/deaths are below certain rates.
I note there is no mention of secondary schools on that chart.