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Well @tpbiker I must admit I wasn’t aware of that. A quick check of the green book chapter 14a lists clinical risk factors for people over 16 who should receive covid 19 vaccination and it states: “individuals with a severe lung condition INCLUDING those with asthma that requires continued or repeated use of systemic steroids or with previous exacerbations requiring hospital admission “
So that is brilliantly vague and open to interpretation. It doesn’t say ONLY people on long term oral steroids, admissions, etc. If it did it would exclude people who were on the shielding list for their asthma because they are prescribed triple therapy inhalers and/or montelukast (the shielding criteria were very much medication driven as it was felt medication was a good marker of severity)- but they’ve already been vacccinated as they are deemed to be a higher risk... so clearly clarity is needed. I’ve not paid much thought to this yet (as you can tell) as we’ve been busy dealing with groups 1-4, and knowing that guidance is changing on a daily basis it doesn’t pay to plan too far ahead. I do have a meeting next week which is usually attended by the head of medicines management for our borough and it will be her job to come up with the searches that produce the lists that we eventually work from to invite patients- it’s decided at a locality rather than individual practice level so that we all sing from the same hymn sheet- I will ask her... and come back to this thread.
I’ve always thought I should put “browsing STW” on my personal development plan for keeping up to date and now I definitely can!😀
I’d be really surprised if it wasn’t just everyone who is entitled to a flu jab though. Getting down to individual patient level and having to make individual decisions on who has severe enough disease isn’t something we have the resource to be doing as well as rolling out the vaccinations at the same time...
When my grandad got TB in the war, the doctors actually advised he took up smoking to kill off the bacteria. Well it worked, he was one of the few to survive on his ward, though it gave him a heart attack 50 yrs later
I was actually going to ask how high a BMI you needed to be able to jump the queue.
40. It’s in the green book. It’s another one that’s just the same as flu vaccination eligibility criteria though. I don’t know if that is back up by data for covid risk.
It is indeed becoming increasingly obvious that oldies are thinking this is 'all over'.
On today's ride we saw 6 rambling woman all chatting and grouped together. My auntie's elderly friends are all booking holidays. A lot of elderly people are talking about hugging their grandchildren.
I really feel for them but they mustn't.
But my stress levels today have gone through the roof as our young neighbours, both of whom have been vaccinated because her parents own a care home, are just having all their friends round with their children, for days now.
Why isn't enough being said that if you're vaccinated, you are still able to spread this virus and you are not even necessarily fully protected even after both vaccinations.
@doc
Thanks for the feedback. Yep it is causing lots of confusion. Asthma uk are on the case and said they should have further clarity next week, but I'm not overly hopeful. Would love to hear what you guys decide to do in the end though, so please keep us updated.
The cynic in me thinks it's much easier for the government to say they've hit their target of vaccinating all the priority groups, if your priority groups dont include all those you actually consider at risk!
Anyhow it is what it is, if I can't get a priority jab, mud muncher has provided the second best option to tide me over, 20 Mayfair blue..
Why isn’t enough being said that if you’re vaccinated, you are still able to spread this virus and you are not even necessarily fully protected even after both vaccinations.
It is being said. It's on the vaccination info. People are taking no notice
If they are breaking the rules, report them
When my grandad got TB in the war, the doctors actually advised he took up smoking to kill off the bacteria. Well it worked, he was one of the few to survive on his ward, though it gave him a heart attack 50 yrs later
My grandad was based out in India during the war as a doctor. Everyone who was out there including him got malaria, other than this one chap who use to get through a bottle of whiskey a day. He claimed the alcohol that he sweated out stopped the midges from biting him, and he was most probably correct
Unfortunately, whilst he escaped malaria, he succumbed to massive liver failure due to cirrhosis, before the war had even finished....
@poopscoop - I'll happily put a tenner on there being a lockdown next winter. Most likely just after Christmas as they won't want the political headache of denying everyone another chance for the grandkids to see the grandparents, especially as they'll all be 'safe' from the virus by then.
I will go in for a tenner on that too, payable to a charity of anyone choice.
I can't see this being done anytime soon, the only difference being we should have substantially lower deaths.
^^Yeah, I can't but help think it's a safe bet to be honest.
I think there is the general feeling that the vaccine will "get Covid done" (sorry) and it's very likely to be a couple of years or so till we get used to living with Covid. That and the huge PTSD that the NHS (individually and as an organisation) will be dealing with, together with the usual underfunding once it's forgotten about again.😟
As for a working test and trace by next winter...?
There is a realistic chance that if a new resistant strain takes hold then they may just have to start vaccinating the first 4 groups again with a tweeked formula..
They may in reality never get past the first 9 groups, as they have to restart the entire vaccination process again every 5-6 months.
That would be a bit of a turd..
Leaking to the media that the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine might well considerably reduce transmission, before the data has been peer reviewed, was frankly another reckless decision.
The UK late winter and early spring 2021 "super spreaders" could well be the elderly, who will social party like it's 1999 before it's been over three weeks since their second vaccine jab.
The new Triumph Trident 660. Don’t have a delivery date just yet, but slowly getting excited.
Good choice, I really like those bikes. Although the news is very depressing at times, having a motorbike to disappear on for hours on end is lovely. Something to look forward to 🙂
who will social party like it’s 1999 before it’s been over three weeks since their second vaccine jab
Yep, I wonder if the press will call them out in the same way they go after young folk breaking the rules
Ultimately though, if loads of old folks are flouting rules and socialising, without an increase in deaths or long covid (can old folk even get long covid?), Then at least that'll tell us the vaccine works damn well. Id rather that than they start to socialise, realise they are still all dying, and run back into isolation.
Obviously, from a transmission perspective I'd prefer they didn't socialize at all
You really are an obnoxious whiner aren't you.
You really are an obnoxious whiner aren’t you.
Yeah and tbf that last comment was a gross generalisation...loads of old folks aren't like that at all. I'll remove it.
Tbh gents the current situation and this thread in general has not brought out my best side. I reckon a self enforced break from this place is a good idea as stw really does being out the worst in me.
Apologies for having a moan over the past 24 hrs. Stay safe all..
Maybe I’m cynical, but the ‘zero COVID’ boat sailed a long time ago. This government will be aiming for acceptable COVID and you can look at what an acceptable level of flu deaths to see where that is.
Trouble is, we can't look at anywhere in the world as having zero covid maybe excepting places like aus and nz, other than that it will be endemic as the vaccines are not likely to prevent infection in the way that smallpox and (almost) polio have been.
Minimal covid and as low deaths as possible is the best we can hope for i think.
But unless we lock down forever with only limited travel that's how it will be a no testing unit will ever be that effective i suspect
Maybe I’m cynical, but the ‘zero COVID’ boat sailed a long time ago. This government will be aiming for acceptable COVID and you can look at what an acceptable level of flu deaths to see where that is.
That was always the strategy and makes sense given the nature of the beast.
Its all well and good Aus and NZ aiming for zero Covid, they're going to have to open their borders at some point.
Its all well and good Aus and NZ aiming for zero Covid, they’re going to have to open their borders at some point.
Aye, but they can vaccinate the population before fully opening up borders again/
Agreed but that should only result in hopefully no healthcare impact, it won't keep the virus out.
Unless someone can come up with a 100% sterile prevention vaccine that is
Reports of 2 nurses stabbed at my local hospital tonight. 😢
Whereabouts are you no beer?
edit Crosshouse?
Maybe I’m cynical, but the ‘zero COVID’ boat sailed a long time ago. This government will be aiming for acceptable COVID and you can look at what an acceptable level of flu deaths to see where that is.
You're not being cynical, but you've also not paid much attention to what TiRed has been saying from the start, which was exactly that.
I have and it’s helped inform that view. It was more a reaction to the posts above talking about continuous lockdowns etc. <span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">Maybe we should we ‘lockdown’ every winter to prevent flu deaths? Seems to have worked pretty well this year...</span>
Whereabouts are you no beer?
edit Crosshouse?
Aye, wife works at Ayr, used to work there, has friends in ward this has happened. Lots of rumours, fingers crossed it's not as bad as it sounds.
Why isn’t enough being said that if you’re vaccinated, you are still able to spread this virus and you are not even necessarily fully protected even after both vaccinations.
I had my Pfizer jab today and nothing was said to me regarding the above. The info leaflet only states 'Protection against Covid-19 may not be maximally effective until at least 7 days after the second dose' and nothing about possible transmission. Most of the 4 page leaflet is about side effects.
GP services were excellent. checked in at appt time, 2 min wait then given jab, followed by 15 minute wait.
There won’t be a zero covid policy. We might get to a make-covid-like-flu policy. An extra flu-like illness on the books with modest additional mortality every few years is likely the best I’m expecting.
Annual or less-frequent vaccination to provide some protection for new emergent strains, with limited morbidity. That’s possibly a few years out. In 20 years time this will be a childhood infection.
And despite vaccinating the elderly, no returns till normal until a large majority are protected. Third quarter is a good timeframe.
I wonder how many people in care homes - who are now vaccinated - will be dead of natural causes by 3rd quarter?
I wonder how many people in care homes – who are now vaccinated – will be dead of natural causes by 3rd quarter?
Google suggests over 400,000 live in care homes, and 131,000 care home residents died in 2019.
I remember reading way back when covid hit wuhan that there was proportionally a lot less smokers being admitted to hospital than non smokers. Whether it’s the layer of tar in the lungs stopping the virus getting into the cells, or the smoke itself I’m not sure.
Also heard anecdotes that smokers are less susceptible to altitude sickness. Maybe they are used to living with low blood o2 !! 🙂
I've also heard stories about smokers living to ripe old ages. Usually told by people that don't understand statistics and do not want to accept that smokers _do_ die younger.
Pennine - pleased for you. But as you state it was my worry that not enough proper, clear information is being given out.
My 81 year mum is of the opinion it's all over by spring and life will be normal again (when she gets her second dose). No amount of carefully explaining (without her having a meltdown) is working.
Also heard anecdotes that smokers are less susceptible to altitude sickness. Maybe they are used to living with low blood o2 !!
I do wonder whether asthmatics are better adapted to trotting along with low blood o2 which is why, on the whole, they don't appear to be at significantly elevated risk until they've pretty much got COPD.
Everyone else just crashes when their blood o2 is under 90, while I was cruising along in the upper 80s a few weeks ago.
I wonder how many people in care homes – who are now vaccinated – will be dead of natural causes by 3rd quarter?
Normally, about a quarter in a year, mostly during winter.
PUBMED.NCBI.NLM.NIH.GOV If covid deaths diminish in this population over the next six months, I'd expect a lower proportion of other deaths, partly due to better hygiene etc at homes, partly due to extra deaths among the more frail residents in earlier months.
Viewing this ongoing hotel quarantine business. It brought up the fact that 10,000 people are still currently entering the UK by air a day. 1000 would have to use the hotel system but that would be expected to drop rapidly as folk avoid travelling as the hotel would be too much hassle/expense.
!0,000 people a day still travelling into the country. I know this is a tiny tiny fraction of the usual daily number but even so - what the hell are the 10,000 excuses/reasons being used every day?
Coming in for a funeral - unlikely given the restricted numbers at funerals to amount to much.
Business? The world is zooming. I can't see too many where reasons why you'd have to be travelling into the UK for business at the moment. And given you would have to quarantine anyway that would further diminish the numbers.
Repatriating Brits - I don't know - is this who they all are?
I'm struggling to think of another justifiable group.
Repatriating Brits – I don’t know – is this who they all are?
I’m struggling to think of another justifiable group.
I wonder this too, like why and who would actually want to come to the UK right now on holiday with everything shut. But I guess there are like a million reasons why people could come back to the UK. Family emergency, spent the last year working from your native country, work if you can't zoom. I would rather everyone have to isolate rather than just the ones on a watch list.
0,000 people a day still travelling into the country. I know this is a tiny tiny fraction of the usual daily number but even so – what the hell are the 10,000 excuses/reasons being used every day?
Are the reasons even checked?
I know quite a few people who have decided wfh can be done from the beach, Dubai, Southern Europe etc
One of my far too well off school friends (got into bitcoin at the start) has spent the last 6 months at a luxury villa in Ibiza, I'm not jealous at all
I'm not sure many are in a rush to come back (brexit rules are forcing the issue tho!)
I wonder how many people in care homes – who are now vaccinated – will be dead of natural causes by 3rd quarter?
I wonder if I'm misinterpreting the point you are making.
Also heard anecdotes that smokers are less susceptible to altitude sickness. Maybe they are used to living with low blood o2 !!
A mate of mine used to quip that being a smoker was ideal training for alpinism as he was always out of breath anyway.
I'm genuinely angry that we are considering border restrictions and quarantine hotels a whole 12 months too late.
How many of the 10000 are lorry drivers?
Are they staying in the UK though or just using the airports as transfer?
Enhanced travel restrictions come in a week on Monday and the road map for exiting restrictions comes out seven days later. Might be miss remembering but I thought the government pulled this placation trick in lockdown 1. Smacks of keeping disruptive elements happy.
There have been a lot earnest excuses around lorry drivers coming into the country being a valid reason for not applying restrictions. In terms of freight coming into the country - wasn't much being made of 80% of freight being unaccompanied. Then there is a general drop in freight due to the other thing.
If it really is essential that we don't close the borders. I don't see why we aren't doing test and sequence on all people at the airport. At least we would then know the test hasn't been falsified.
How many of the 10000 are lorry drivers?
Arriving by air? Not many.
Many of those 10k/day will be people who have to go on work travel returning - there are some things that are specialist or really do need to be done in person. It is really not that many given how big the UK is and how many specialist services we provide (think aircraft engine maintenance, oil rigs etc).
What I can't understand is how the beeb and others still keep refering to hotel quarantine as a 'tightening' of restrictions. It is NOT - travel from the red list countries is currently banned completely, so this is actually a relaxation. It would only be a tightening if it applied to everyone - which would make a lot of sense imho.