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From that graph it looks like we'll be producing 1 billion doses of vaccine in the UK this year. Or close to 19 million doses a week. Am I reading that correctly because i thought currently it's a tiny fraction of that?
If that's the case id be alot more confident about getting a jab before the autumn than I was.
I'm conflicted about giving our vaccines away. On one hand it's not fair we have such a high supply line, but on the flip side I'm also very mindful of my own health, my friends health, and my family members health. I'm also inclined to think, somewhat controversially perhaps, that preventing the potentially devastating effects of long covid on our younger generations is equally if not more important than preventing 90 year olds in care homes from dying.
Here a question for those in the know. We are obviously focusing on the most vunerable just now, with vaccines that are predicted to be pretty good but not great, especially in old folks.
What's the likelihood that in 6 months time, even if the az vaccine has reduced mortality, if another vaccine is proved to be more effective they basically start from scratch with the priority groups again.
Otherwise it may well end up that the last in line for the jab, ie the healthy 20 year olds, get a more effective vaccine than your 90 year old nan.
Won't we want those surplus doses to use as boosters in a year or so time?
mandog
Full Member
Won’t we want those surplus doses to use as boosters in a year or so time?
I suspect we'll have new (modified) vaccines by then to better impact the new variants that will be coming along.
Ala flu jabs.
I went to work at a different station today to cover sickness and we worked at a mass vaccine site, the lads had worked there the day before and been jabbed 2 ended up off sick and one ended up in hospital, 2 others from the other shift were also off sick due to having the vaccine, everyone else felt like crap is this a normal thing ??
Won’t we want those surplus doses to use as boosters in a year or so time?
If we are making 20 million doses a week then let's be honest after the initial mad rush dies down there will be plenty to go round.
I'm all for making sure the UK is prioritised, but sitting on any surplus would be criminal.
The more I hear from the eu the more id be inclined to not give any of it to them however. Macron can go f himself after his attitude towards brexit negotiations.
We should be giving it to countries who can't afford it, not countries who f'd up their planning and organisation.
I mean can you imagine if we came cap in hand to macron asking for French supplies if the shoe was on other foot....
everyone else felt like crap is this a normal thing ??
Yeah, seems fairly common, mainly in those who've had the virus.
I'm sure the EU was only thinking of breaking any agreement in a specific and limited way.
What’s the likelihood that in 6 months time, even if the az vaccine has reduced mortality, if another vaccine is proved to be more effective they basically start from scratch with the priority groups again.
With flu a new formula has to be cooked up every winter, depending on which strains are dominant, it's a guessing game, sometimes they get it right, sometimes they don't
Well be a similar situation with covid, I'm not aware that we help developing countries with their vaccinations but we should be
And if u want to be selfish about because in the case of covid especially, unvaccinated those countries are a pool for mutant strains to arise in (its the reason any form of vaccine nationalism is daft)
not countries who f’d up their planning and organisation
You mean, like preordering vaccines to be delivered after approval, only to be told that just 40% of the doses ordered would be heading their way?
The UK has benefitted from the international nature of vaccine development, testing and production… but all of a sudden a lot of Brits are getting very nationalistic about this. I fear we have bought into the “Oxford vaccine” spin a bit too eagerly. We weren’t shy of making good early use of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine… we’ll be happy to make good use of the Johnson&Johnson/Janssen, Moderna and Novavax vaccines as well.
@firestarter Mick, yes apparantly feeling shit after the vacine isnt uncommon. My sister felt so bad after her 2nd Pfizer jab in early January, she had to go back and be tested for coronavirus. Test came back negative.
There's also a huge amount of luck in vaccine development
UK government did a v good job of hedging their bets but if Sanofi/GSK version had worked out & AZ hadn't (Sanofi was favourite early on, trump wanted to buy it all) our positions could easily be reversed
More than luck though. The early focus on developing sites, and signing contracts, to produce at scale, whichever vaccines came good, was a sound move. The big numbers for us this summer will be USA vaccines produced on UK sites that have been made ready with months of work.
The papers are going to go nuts in a “UK versus Europe” manner over the AZ stuff though… and Brits will lap it up. Expect all the leaders of EU countries to be betrayed in a very negative light. They’ll be figurative talk of war and freedom, you can be sure of that.
You mean, like preordering vaccines to be delivered after approval, only to be told that just 40% of the doses ordered would be heading their way?
I mean like spending 3 addition months trying to negotiate the best deal and signing off on the vaccine far far later than us. They were behind the curve on this, even our hopeless government managed to get it right. And now they are trying to cover their own incompetent arses by throwing around threats. They couldn't even get the comtracts right by the looks of things.
You honestly think France would hand over their supplies to us if shoe was on the other foot? Not a chance.
The UK has benefitted from the international nature of vaccine development, testing and production… but all of a sudden a lot of Brits are getting very nationalistic about this.
Well by the looks of things we've been the ones who built the infrastructure, stumped up the cash up front for funding development. And will be the ones producing a fairly sizable proportion of the worlds supply. We've also got by far the highest death rate.
Given how the EU gave us the bare minimum in terms of a brexit deal, forgive me if I'm not feeling particularly charitable towards them right now. Maybe we should reciprocate with a token, barely acceptable number of vaccines sent their way.
@firestarter - my Missus had to miss a couple of days of work after her vaccination. Amongst her colleagues, that's been rare.
Given how the EU gave us the bare minimum in terms of a brexit deal, forgive me if I’m not feeling particularly charitable towards them right now. Maybe we should reciprocate with a token, barely acceptable number of vaccines sent their way.
The first AZ & the Pfizer vaccines we've been using are from the EU....factories in Germany & Holland!
And German government gave €millions to Biontech for development of their RNA vaccine
https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/pfizer-vaccine-funding-warp-speed-germany/
& We got the Brexit deal Johnson asked for!!!
There is no vaccine that is the result of a single country… all the vaccines are very much international. Yes, ramping up production has been done best/quickest in the UK, for sure, but this is also happening all around the world, including in Germany and Belgium. The spread of vaccines backed/purchased by the UK has also paid of… as has having the NHS to call on. But the vaccines are all international, and we shouldn’t start nationalist tub thumping about them.
I mean like spending 3 addition months trying to negotiate the best deal and signing off on the vaccine far far later than us. They were behind the curve on this, even our hopeless government managed to get it right. And now they are trying to cover their own incompetent arses by throwing around threats. They couldn’t even get the comtracts right by the looks of things.
You honestly think France would hand over their supplies to us if shoe was on the other foot? Not a chance.
A 1000 times this^
Found out they were in the placebo group.
Without wishing to undermine the double blind, maybe there's more to them wanting you to hold on...
Wait till eu bans the export of silicate vials. Or stoppers. This is petty politics. It’s debasing the efforts of all involved who are trying hard. Throwing the GFA under the vaccine bus was, however, a master stroke.
J&J data is consistent with others on protection from COVID-19. That’s encouraging. But novovax looks like the standout result so far after mRNA. I think the preclinical data is showing solid translation so far to humans. I also am less and less convinced about the effects on transmission as opposed to disease.
I also am less and less convinced about the effects on transmission as opposed to disease.
> fingers in ears <
Given how the EU gave us the bare minimum in terms of a brexit deal
That is nonsense; the UK got what it deserved based on unrealistic demands/expectations and incompetent negotiating including lack of preparation.
As for the spat about vaccine distribution, the EU could and should have placed bulk orders more quickly and - as pointed out above - the UK were lucky.
As with everything.
We can only ever run as fast as the slowest of us.
TiRed
I also am less and less convinced about the effects on transmission as opposed to disease.
So, we are all likely to catch a variant of Covid at some point, this year or over the years to come but it hopefully won't result in death/ hospitalisation?
Throwing the GFA under the vaccine bus was, however, a master stroke.
I see they have backed down on that now. Ireland wasn't too happy. Methinks the EU overplayed their hand.
As for the spat about vaccine distribution, the EU could and should have placed bulk orders more quickly and – as pointed out above – the UK were lucky.
Less luck and more a matter of moving quicker, being prudent and not being afraid to risk cash surely?
Less luck and more a matter of moving quicker, being prudent and not being afraid to risk cash surely?
The more I read the more it looks like the eu strategy was banking on there being excess capacity all over the place, hence they’d be able to pick from suppliers. This explanation fits their actions.
However the UK ended up here, I am thankful for it. Specifically and only in respect to the vaccines, not the absolute mess we made of the pandemic handling and the resultant deaths of course.
I'm very concerned that things can change really, really quickly though. After recent events, this government doesn't stay "lucky" for very long where the pandemic is concerned.
Well played/ lucky, it can all change and there is a good possibility we are going to be the ones desperate for EU help at some point. Two months from now, the coming Winter, two years from now, who knows? As TiRed says, just basic utilities for the vaccine, vials and a hundred other things I can't even begin to fathom, might need to be sourced from the EU.
So my take away is we need to be prepared to deal with an EU that really doesn't have to pander to us and might actively need to be seen to be harsh on us to keep its own population/s happy during the pandemic/ recovery. I suspect a great many people in the EU aren't that keen on the UK after the last 4 years and are NOT happy being told they are exporting vaccines to the UK potentially, whilst they struggle.
Basically, at the moment we really don't want to get too smug/ complacent as it could all change frighteningly fast.
The fact the EU went a bit Brexity on us terrifies me to be honest. We've been telling them they are ** for 4 years now and they need to keep their population/s on side just as we do. If Brexit tought the EU anything, it's that Brexit was hugely successful in so far as winning a good percentage of a given population over. It would be tempting to use some of those playlists on its own populations, particularly if they see it as being for the EU's greater good.
I don't want us to be beaten by the other end of the Brexit stick we created during a pandemic that is in all likelihood still going to be affecting our economy for years to come one way or another.
Sorry if I've gone off track a bit but I don't see the UK doing well with the pandemic long term if the EU and the rest of the world aren't either.
Tl;dr: Within months we might be looking ancient at the EU, both vaccine rollout and recovery. Let's not rub s in their face as we are doing better. At the moment. It's likely to be remembered.
Edit: Meant looking "enviously" at the EU.
Well, it's happened.
"Coronavirus: EU confirms new vaccine export controls"
Aside from some exempt countries, EU exports of vaccines have to be approved first. I don't see any way this won't effect the Pfizer rollout almost others? WHO not happy.
"In future, Pfizer would have to fill in an export form and wait up to 48 hours for their export request to be accepted or rejected by the Belgian government. That decision would be based on whether the company could prove that taking that batch of vaccine to the UK would not affect the existing EU agreement."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55860540
The UK has benefitted from the international nature of vaccine development, testing and production… but all of a sudden a lot of Brits are getting very nationalistic about this.
Totally agree with this. On the face of it the eu put an order in that they seem to feel is not fulfilled so they have every right to be annoyed. I think the other reality is since the start the only consistent plan Boris has had is a vaccine, he was never interested in a NZ style approach, track and trace was / is a disaster, and everything else has failed. He spread his bets and went full stream ahead in a vaccine being a solution and like the rest of his life got lucky.
In an ideal world distribution would be run by someone like WHO. I seem to remember they proposed every country only be allowed to buy enoubth to vaccine 20% of their population in an attempt to stop less rich nations being left for dead.
As with everything.
We can only ever run as fast as the slowest of us.
Having had my **** handed to me on numerous occasions, I can confirm this isn't true. Not with running anyway.
Well, it’s happened.
There was also a fairly dramatic reversal on the Article 16 pish.
This would be a very good time for the grown ups to finally arrive in Government.
You honestly think France would hand over their supplies to us if shoe was on the other foot? Not a chance.
Not just the UK that needs to be wary, remember this?
The desperation of the EU is nakedly obvious. They know a reckoning is coming for their lack of urgency, agility and flexibility in initial vaccine procurement.
Whatever happens now, even if they manage to squeeze a few AZ jabs out of UK facilities, they are already stuffed, because they needed the vaccines six weeks ago, not in six weeks' time. The new variants are going to rip into Europe from Iberia (Brazilian) and the north (UK variant).
So all this posturing is simply about blaming AZ and the UK for that moment.
I agree wholeheartedly that countries which produce large amounts of vaccine share it as soon as possible with less fortunate countries. I was envisaging that being in the developing world, rather than modern industrial economies in Europe.
Sadly, we now need to close the UK/EU continental border to all but essential travel because we can't afford for the Brazilian strain to get a foothold until all our vulnerable groups are vaccinated.
So, we are all likely to catch a variant of Covid at some point, this year or over the years to come but it hopefully won’t result in death/ hospitalisation?
Short answer: yes.
Long answer:
I’ve said this a few times, think of the vaccine as providing the immune history of that first infection (which may be severe) without the likelihood of any serious sequale. We are in the position we are to control the numbers of symptomatic patients closing healthcare. No other reason. The vaccines have all shown they hugely reduce hospitalisations.
Some of the vaccines may affirm sterile protection. For a while (unknown). There is, however, now data that shows;
1) infection generate antibodies in almost everyone.
2) vaccines generate similar antibodies to infections.
3) you can be reinfected after a few months of a natural infection.
4) secondary infections are less severe even asymptomatic due to retained immunity.
5) there is some neutralisation of new strains but with lower potency (titer)
6) at least one vaccine is effective against the UK strain and acceptably effective against the SA strain in subjects who do not have HIV.
Vaccinate everyone, give them some antibodies, then the risks of a COVID surge of disease is much reduced. An upside is that people now have asymptomatic infection. They may spread the infection still (unknown), but the degree of spread and the R number is likely to be reduced.
This is Herd Protection And is what we need. Herd immunity is an upside which some vaccines may generate depending on protection level (unknown as most looked for symptomatic infections). Either way SARS-CoV2 is going to become an endemic childhood disease like the other four coronaviruses.
(Tl:dr) vaccination WILL reduce deaths and burden of healthcare. They may reduce transmission but this is not a given. Nor is it absolutely necessary.
As an aside, there are 57 approved vaccines for a common chicken coronavirus. They provide Herd protection. They aren’t needed for sustained protection for males.
So, we are all likely to catch a variant of Covid at some point, this year or over the years to come but it hopefully won’t result in death/ hospitalisation?
As TiRed has repeatedly said, we will have to learn to adapt to living with the virus the same way we do with flu. It was never going to just go away.
Fair play to the UK, vaccine orders and early Nightingale capacity were the only things they got right. Everything else has cost additional lives, jobs and wasted public money.
Speak his name and he shall appear!
The new variants are going to rip into Europe from Iberia (Brazilian) and the north (UK variant).
The UK variant was detected on continent well over a month ago, but cases dont seem to have increased as rapidly there so far?
We can only ever run as fast as the slowest of us.
More a Team time trial. Pity the last three countries as the time is taken on rider number five crossing the line. Everyone will, however, finish the race and get a time. Ready for the next stage. I’ve been that rider. It’s a bit lonely at the back, but you always get a big clap when you finish!
I think the other reality is since the start the only consistent plan Boris has had is a vaccine, he was never interested in a NZ style approach, track and trace was / is a disaster, and everything else has failed. He spread his bets and went full stream ahead in a vaccine being a solution and like the rest of his life got lucky.
He is fortunate with that - my fear is it being squandered in the same way all the gains of lock down one were. The green eyes of the Covid Recovery Group will be swivelling to the other side of the planet coveting the freedoms and crowds around the Australian Open.
I think until we know how much the vaccine works in preventing infection / onward transmission we really need to make the most of being an island. It's a fair bet there will be something nastier we don't know about yet.
Sadly the EU isn't covering itself in glory.
Does anyone know if other countries/territories are building new manufacturing centres for vaccines like the vmic?
Just interested as this seems to be a sensible long term investment.
Yes.
Sahin said BioNTech aimed to get a new manufacturing facility in the German city of Marburg up and running in February, "far earlier than planned", that should then be able to churn out an additional 250 million doses in the first half of 2021.
Tureci said they had also struck deals with five pharmaceutical manufacturers in Europe to increase production, and negotiations with other specialised firms are ongoing.
"By the end of January we should have clarity on what and how much more we can produce," Sahin said.
BioNTech and Pfizer were initially aiming to deliver 1.3 billion doses worldwide this year, enough to immunise 650 million people.
For Europe-bound vaccines, Moderna this year enlisted Swiss contract drug manufacturer Lonza to make active vaccine ingredients at three new production lines in Visp, Switzerland.
The lines, costing 70 million Swiss francs ($80 million) each and due to supply a combined 300 million doses annually, are not yet producing vaccine, though the first line could become operational within days.
It seems longer term mRNA vaccines could be the best option both in terms of efficacy and speed to scale up for new emerging strains. Are the production requirements significantly different for mRNA? ie would we have capability at vmic and the other UK vaccine manufacturing locations to produce mRNA vaccines?
@kelvin thanks for the info.
It does make sense that we need to both increase and also spread out vaccine production worldwide, but then I guess we also need to make sure the raw materials (vials, stoppers even metal cap seals) also need to be available as those will stop production as quickly as anything else
mRNA vaccines have the plus that there is very little protein required compared to spike protein (after all you are the bioreactor). So per batch you get a lot of doses. But they have the complication that they have more complex processing; encapsulation in lipid then Polyethylene Glycol shell. And the colder storage to maintain stability.
These are the first two of their class to be approved. The technology is mature but previously unproven. It wasn’t originally pursued for infectious diseases. It was for cancer. Now it’s proven, it’s the Tesla disruptive technology. Effective, advanced but lacking in infrastructure (cold chain or charging points). It is a significant advance, like Tesla and it’s very exciting for future therapeutics. Like Tesla (and Renault of course) for electric cars.