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I'm completely with mefty on this one. What the EU is claiming AZ have failed to do (or, to be accurate given the AZ vaccine hasn't actually even been approved by the EU yet) probably will fail to do is to deliver the "Initial Europe Doses" (and even that is a stretch given the lack of prescribed timescales). However that requirement sits in 5.1 and that is limited to production in the EU. 5.4 gives AZ the ability, subject to certain constraints, to source from other parts of the world with no constraints on AZ if it wishes to source from the UK.
It is not confusing they just want the vaccine made in Western Europe. And if AZ cant manage that there is provision for someone to be found.
Well ianal, obvs!
EMA recommends COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca for authorisation in the EU
including for over 55s
"However, protection is expected, given that an immune response is seen in this age group and based on experience with other vaccines; as there is reliable information on safety in this population, EMA’s scientific experts considered that the vaccine can be used in older adults."
By the time it goes through the courts the pandemic will be over with!
Not so sure about that. Numerous experts/scientists suggesting Coronavirus will be with us for a good while yet with annual jabs as variants spring up over years. What will matter then is the ability to annually produce 00's millions of various vaccines in response to those changes. On this occasion the UK has proven to be smart and nimble, but in the longer term the EU manufacturing prowess will get right on top of it and the best place for the UK to be then is bezzie mates so we can pull together.
Must feel for AZ with the hammering it's getting for the superb efforts it has made in the massive scaling up of a not for profit drug.
Very pleasant surprise to see senior UK politicians managing to moderate their language when referring to the challenges faced by the EU. Hopefully it is recognition the UK needs to work with the EU in the future on health, security, trade, etc ... 🤞
The more I read 5.4 the more I think that section was geared towards worldwide excess production capacity of a vaccine. Which is the situation the EU thought they were going to be in, an excess of suppliers to pick from.
The VMIC scale of production will hopefully kick in soon too. It will at least help hopefully in 2022 and beyond for new strains
This could get messy, before it gets sorted…
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1355192363522658309?s=21
Today's death stats are late again 🤔
I'm sure the last time they did that it was VERY high. 😱
I do hope this isn't repeated endlessly if new strains emerge that make vaccines less effective
IIRC 39m vaccine doses govern worldwide, but all in richest countries
Only poor country is Guinea which has received 25 doses from Russia
Aside from gross inequality
That's a huge infection pool for new strains to emerge from
I’m sure the last time they did that it was VERY high
Sadly it's pretty much guaranteed that death rates aren't going to be getting better for another week or so - the number of people in hospital has only just stopped growing and JVT said that we're now at about 20% mortality for that group, so with 38K in hospital that's 7.6K deaths already 'in the system'. 🙁
A single-dose coronavirus vaccine developed by Janssen is 66% effective, the Belgian company has announced.
EDIT: apparently 85% effective against serious disease, and 100% effective against hospitalisation and death in trials.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55857530
Great news for wider cheaper distribution.
The fact it works as a single dose and can be kept in a standard fridge, while others need super-cold storage, means the vaccine could have a significant role around the world.
Only poor country is Guinea which has received 25 doses from Russia
Aside from gross inequality
I think I read that Russia has given 10000 doses to the Palestinians. Obviously it would have been sensible for the Israelis to include Palestinians in their programme but of course that was a non-starter.
How much of the ingredients and requisite specialist factory/manufacturing is shared between the different vaccines?
Something must be critical path / limiting production speed, at what point do the various competing vaccines and the interests of the companines making them become detrimental to the overall aim of getting the most number of vaccines in peoples arms?
The more I read about this matter of the EU's procurement of vaccines (specifically the AstraZeneca one) the more I'm convinced that the commission is just trying to save face for being too slow and risk-averse.
I agree, I'm beginning to think this actually could be an existential threat to the eu, between the vaccines and the recovery plan.
If they get it wrong then a lot of people will be wondering what's the point. This is said as someone who wants to be in the eu, but the behaviour here has been atrocious.
I think bojo should say he is willing for a proportion of the UK allocated production should go to the eu. It won't make a difference to total numbers but the European commission will wear it
Indeed. Vaccine diplomacy?
How much of the ingredients and requisite specialist factory/manufacturing is shared between the different vaccines?
Something must be critical path / limiting production speed, at what point do the various competing vaccines and the interests of the companines making them become detrimental to the overall aim of getting the most number of vaccines in peoples arms?
What has been the challenge is the upscale of the manufacturing to unprecedented levels. The UK plant which was started earlier, ironed these out in advance (there were also delays?), these now need to be ironed out for the EU plant.
I suppose if each country went its own way, a few countries would be getting the vaccines they asked for on time, at the expense of the other nations. I don’t understand why some people think this would be a better outcome as regards handling this pandemic. We need more international cooperation, not less, unless we want to all crawl into our national silos and hide for a few years.
Anyway… all this focus on vaccines is useful for forgetting our current tools for stopping transmission. We need self isolating and contact tracing to work, and for that to happen we need to be support people who need to isolate.
https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n224
Support for self-isolation is critical in covid-19
(Published 27 January 2021)
Socioeconomically disadvantaged and many ethnic minority groups have been disproportionately affected, with increased risk of infection, hospital admission, and death
Despite the vaccine rollout, many younger people, particularly those working in high exposure occupations, living in overcrowded housing, or without a home will remain subject to an ongoing burden of quarantine orders, along with a disproportionate risk of infection and onward transmission for the foreseeable future. An equitable and effective public health response requires the integration of supportive services to effectively decrease their contact rates and subsequently risk of infection.
…the ability to quarantine until test results are available, and to isolate if positive, depends on people having the space and resources to do so. Survey data from the UK suggest that less than one in five people are able to adhere to isolation protocols. Notably, lower rates of adherence have been reported among men, younger people, key workers, those living with dependent children, and those in lower socioeconomic groups.
Several well described models have been shown to enhance compliance with quarantine and isolation. Fundamental components include ensuring financial security and compensation as well as practical support.
The EU is now in beach of their own contract. The version they published contained all of the metadata for the “redacted” sections. Someone on Reddit has helpfully unredacted all of the sections including the sections on dosing and pricing.
Someone’s also made the point that the force maejure clause contained in the contract essentially says that in a pandemic all bets are off. 🙄🤣
Got a link to the unredacted one?
The EU is now in beach of their own contract. The version they published contained all of the metadata for the “redacted” sections. Someone on Reddit has helpfully unredacted all of the sections including the sections on dosing and pricing.
They shouldn't even be publishing 'redacted' parts of the contract. Disgraceful behaviour from the EU.
Not that exciting really…
Just the start of subheadings or first line of copy in sections.
Very little of the redacted content can be retrieve from the metadata. So we’re still pretty much in the dark. And without seeing the UK contract, we still have no idea if AZ are doing anything odd at all (I doubt they are, as it happens).
Someone on Reddit has helpfully unredacted all of the sections including the sections on dosing and pricing.
So… not this.
Clip from Indy Sage about actually making schools (and elsewhere) safe…
https://twitter.com/independentsage/status/1355202661574987783?s=21
I think I read that Russia has given 10000 doses to the Palestinians. Obviously it would have been sensible for the Israelis to include Palestinians in their programme but of course that was a non-starter.
Just the usual from the Israelis. 😔
I think what this has really highlighted is the self-serving power hungry slow turning bureaucracy of the EU commission. They've been caught with their pants down, and rather than admit they've been wrong, they're now desperately flinging mud in the hope some will stick somewhere to not make themselves look bad.
The NI thing just shouts desperation. As somebody highlighted, all it's going to do is cause political friction for no gain on their part. The UK will have the most vaccine options and production capacity, so if they want a tit for tat vaccine export battle, the EU doesn't have the better hand at the moment.
All the UK government has to do, is ensure our own contracts are met, leave the pharma companies to do their job, and export the additional production to whoever they see fit.
Something I have been surprised to learn, is the UK has been the biggest funder for the various worldwide vaccine programs, whereas the EU has invested very little.
Then there is this graphic that has been doing the rounds-
The EU are really not looking good over this. Looks like they want everybody else's cakes and to eat them, because they spend three extra months negotiating and didn't even buy their own cake mix or turn the oven on.
I'd also like to see the figures behind the money they 'gave' to help development and production, which the pharma companies are saying they never actually received.
The UK gave the money upfront, in return for vaccines should they become available, and not just allocate a budget and send an IOU. This is something the UK government did get right, and which we are now seeing the major benefits off.
Something I have been surprised to learn, is the UK has been the biggest funder for the various worldwide vaccine programs, whereas the EU has invested very little.
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_2262
Team Europe contributes €500 million to COVAX initiative to provide one billion COVID-19 vaccine doses for low and middle income countries
And then…
Then there is this graphic that has been doing the rounds
Could you link to the source of that data please? I’d be interested if it includes funding that nation states have provided for development.
For example this, which directly benefited many old people we know back here in the UK early on…
The truth is that Pfizer didn’t receive any funding from Operation Warp Speed for the development, clinical trial and manufacturing of the vaccine. Rather, its partner, BioNTech SE, has received money — from the German government.
Berlin gave the German company $445 million in an agreement in September…
https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/pfizer-vaccine-funding-warp-speed-germany/
I’d say the opposite, good news for the likes of south africa and their variant
...
Seriously, this is very good news for the first non-genetic (i.e., traditional) vaccine platform. The single shot J&J vaccine should read out next week.
Thanks TiReD and NoBeer for the 'glass-half-full' perspective on this. Without trying to diminish the importance of what has been achieved, I guess it worries me that variants that arose prior to any vaccine-related selection pressures have a decent level of escape - we really need to reduce the infection level everywhere AND vaccinate the world fast to avoid creating a perfect breeding ground for vaccine-resistant strains.
From what I can make out the whole argument centres around wher the vaccines are made and where they end up being used.
We had an advantage by being the first to clear the vaccine for use so all the UK capacity went into our initial stockpile ready for the rollout. Now that we are using up that stock all the UK factory's production is going to us. All good so far. The EU order what's to do the same, build a stockpile then hit the ground running, but the delays from the EU factories have scuppered that plan. The EU are now looking at the contract they gave where the EU-made vaccines go to them but it looks like some of the stick that was made before now has been coming to us and they want an equivalent stock back from the UK factory. This is not happening so we now have a standoff with export controls and legal fights.
Can't help but think that this could all have been avoided somehow. The obvious thing would be if Brexit hadn't happened or we had joined the EU vaccine scheme but then you have the issue of we seem to have managed to come out of this little issue actually ahead. The fact remains though that even if we 100% vaccinate all of the UK population we still run the risk of importing new strains from countries that are still vaccinating. This means we'll be stuck at home unt everyone catches up. Surely this is one of those times where looking at the world picture rather than inward at ourselves is the correct choice?
Interesting article on the money put in for manufacturing scale up and other factors.
guardian link
This is not happening so we now have a standoff with export controls and legal fights.
The EU are just expelling hot air and sabre rattling to try and ensure supply through political pressure… there is nothing for them to do legally really, is there. Politics at its worst. Disgraceful really. It is prompting a lot of fake news spreading amongst Brits though. We’re ripe for it, aren’t we.
I asked to be unblinded from the Novavax trial to avoid having a second vaccine but they wouldn’t let me, said the sponsors protocol is still for it to remain blinded. Pretty frustrating tbh.
You will find more infographics at Statista
I was actually looking for something else. Not sure what I expected but didn’t expect that volume of vaccine coming out of the U.K.
I'm surprised at the UK levels in that chart.
That's cool. I wonder what current production levels are.
My parents (both over 80) were also on the Novavax trial, but were unblinded as soon as they were offered the Pfizer vaccine. They have been asked to carry on follow up appointments to monitor their blood, which they have agreed to do.
One can only assume that they will unblind you once you are eligible for an already approved vaccine, or will be offered the Novavax as soon as it becomes licenced, whichever comes first.
If you have a vaccination booking i am sure they will unblind you quickly. All trial protocols will have the triggers for that built in and am sure they will have considered receiving a licensed vaccine.
Wait until you get an appt then contact the investigator at your trial site, and if no joy there (which i would be surprised at) then ask to contact the site monitor.
Not sure what I expected but didn’t expect that volume of vaccine coming out of the U.K.
We’ve been preparing for the ramp up for a year now. There are two members of this forum involved. Perhaps they’ll fill us in on the numbers being aimed for, and the state of play on site. It’s all looking very positive.
Why isn’t Belgium on that chart though?
Surely this is one of those times where looking at the world picture rather than inward at ourselves is the correct choice?
If we manage to get the UK vaccinated ahead of the rest of the world I'm more than happy that we stay at home and keep quarantine in place for arrivals until they manage to catch us up.
@Vazaha, yeah, I’ve emailed them again as I’m being offered another approved vaccine through work. Quite happy to keep all the follow up blood tests etc. Which were your parents on?
If those numbers are correct then we will be sending an awful lot of vaccine to the rest of the world.
I do however think that once we have vaccinated the at risk groups then we should offer to export a decent proportion of the vaccine production. My personal preference is that the export goes to developing countries though as the eu issue is going to be resolved in a few months where the developing world are not going to see much this year
If those numbers are correct then we will be sending an awful lot of vaccine to the rest of the world.
By sending you mean selling right? This gov' does nothing unless it helps them. I don't fully understand the whole eu vaccine issue but I do think rhetoric from Downing Street and press seems very anti eu and look who the baddies really are and we are better off without them. We are the ones who have purchased some 200m odd doses for a country with a population of way less than that.
Don't know, I would hope that we can give a load of them to developing countries.
We got lucky on vaccine numbers, when the majority were originally supported it was more an educated guess rather than buying a sure thing. Yeah we have more than needed ordered, but no one really knew they would all work. Its just great they do.
I actually thought the government had been staying out of it pretty well (it sticks in my throat saying that, as I hate the tories), ultimately this isn't between the UK and the EU, it is between AZ and the EU, notice they are not going after Pfizer the same or moderna despite them dropping numbers too.
That all being said I want us to make sure a fair proportion of vaccines are being shipped to where they are needed, it's just the politicians need to shut the hell up and sort it rather than spouting off (see Macrons comments about the az vaccine being almost ineffective in the over 65's as a case in point)
If we manage to get the UK vaccinated ahead of the rest of the world I’m more than happy that we stay at home and keep quarantine in place for arrivals until they manage to catch us up.
The more likely path will be: dose up, open up, run around.
And the EU slams it into reverse......
Having invoked (or threatened to invoke) Article 16, word is that they've decided that was an overreaction. One presumes that the politicians have had a word with the Commission, with Micheal Martin being particularly upset with Ursula von der Leyen.
You couldn't make it up.