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Yes, I maintain this is thread is one of the best things om STW. Thank you to all who contribute. The discussions have certainly improved my stats knowledge!
Fingers crossed for 2021
It genuinely feels like something has materially changed in the virus activity.
Very concerned that the increased numbers from this new strain will finally push the incredible efforts of the NHS beyond breaking point. Hearing if more and more cases locally, and first deaths in our wider social circles. Truly a race against time for the vaccine.
Had a chat with the GPs receptionist yesterday, they gave no idea yet if/when/how they will be involved in local vaccination, even for the over 80s like my parents.
As Kelvin says, loads, earlier full lockdown, not compressing two months of Christmas shoping into 3 weeks, crucially not putting the south back into tier 2 so they could all go out and party in their local restaurants, not telling everybody it was ok to ignore the rules for 5 days after Chritmas. None of it required a crystal ball. The only thing they've down right is out the North into tier 4 before it explodes up here again although it feels politically driven rather following the science, if London has to be locked down so can everyone else, except a few outliers so we don't have to call it lockdown 3.0.
Other countries get this… why don’t we?
Many other countries are also doing quote badly but this isn't a race to the bottom.
Which bit of “sooner” did you not get?
I'm not up for an argument. We're all struggling with the prospect of what's coming around the corner here.
I was among those criticising the government and calling for all these things back in October, and I think a different strategy would have been more effective at suppressing the virus over winter if the dominant strain had remained unchanged. But the new variant makes the autumn strategy moot, IMO. The aim is always just trying to push a wave backwards in time and flatten it slightly, and we've just moved outside the harbour wall into the proper swell.
Stay safe, everyone.
They’ve just identified New Variant cases (not linked to overseas travel) in California, which is mostly still pretty warm and sunny, so the extent to which it has contributed to their current crisis will become clear fairly soon.
Winter is winter though, it's about actions (and interactions) and behaviours more than absolute temperatures. (at least in part)
Stick people indoors with poor ventilation and the weather outside isn't really material....
They’ve just identified New Variant cases (not linked to overseas travel) in California, which is mostly still pretty warm and sunny, so the extent to which it has contributed to their current crisis will become clear fairly soon.
Turns out that if you allow people arriving in your country to disappear straight out of the airport without taking any kind of Covid-19 test or quarantine, you easily import exciting new strains of the disease.
I mean, really, the USA can blame no one but themselves for this.
A very powerful intro with some front-line experiences following. Apologies if it's already been posted.
But the new variant makes the autumn strategy moot, IMO.
No, it does not. The strategy of letting us "live with the virus" at a certain level meant that as soon as there was any additional uptick in transmissions, we could not act fast enough to contain it. Other countries get this. You have to keep levels of infection low, if you want to be able to contain spikes in infection. Where we are now is a direct result of the government ignoring their own scientists and lumbering us with a high level of prevalence going into winter, boxing us into a corner. The choices made back in the autumn directly limit the options open to us now. The reason that we can not control this new strain is because of poor political choices (obvious to all at the time) made by our government, months ago.
Which bit of “sooner” did you not get? The die was cast by November, never mind December, options were reduced by past actions, again. Short lock down at half term, with schools closed as well, was needed. That’s not hindsight. With a virus like this, you need prevalence kept low, to stand any chance of controlling spikes in transmission. Other countries get this… why don’t we?
The lost chance with that 2 week opportunity really haunts me as a point in time that was truly wasted and now we pay the price.
Kelvin
crucially not putting the south back into tier 2 so they could all go out and party in their local restaurants
They didn't tell them (us) they could they told us we should with a strong implication or side order we were traitors if we didn't go and "support the economy".
martinhutch
Not sure what more they could have done from December onwards, TBH.
We were forced to send the kid into a virus packed school until the last day when he was in the last 7 of his class.
We are now being forced to send him back on the 6th without any justification.
"On site provision will also be made for those with EHCPs or whose parents classed as “critical workers list (the definition of a critical worker can be found here).” (link doesn't copy/paste)
If you are a critical worker, or your child is vulnerable, we expect you to send them to school from the first day of term.
This doesn't have any recognition of the fact I'm working from home and been explicitly told to WFH or explain why when the letter states "Term will commence on Wednesday 6th January as planned for all students, but for the vast majority this will be in the form of remote learning."
I can possibly argue I'm not a critical worker as it gets a a bit vague around IT support ... but his mother can't as a teacher and it say's if you are a critical worker "we expect you to send them to school from the first day of term".
Quite honestly I wonder how many people don't have at least one critical worker ... and if he will even be in a minority before the infections ride again and he's sent to self isolate again..
Meanwhile at some point he will be taking the virus into real critical workers kids like doctors and nurses... it seems rather inevitable.
It genuinely feels like something has materially changed in the virus activity. Up here in Scotland we’re suddenly seeing numbers we haven’t before. Compliance up here has been pretty good and i haven’t sensed a significant change in the last few weeks. From listening to colleagues in London they are approaching the point of care rationalisation. My gut, although I’m hoping I’m wrong, is we’re about to enter a whole new phase of the pandemic in the UK, possibly worldwide. Thinking of my colleagues down south tonight.
This is my feeling too.
All these social media positivity posts for 2021 just seem like pie in the sky.
Kelvin
Where we are now is a direct result of the government ignoring their own scientists
Partly ignoring but largely controlling the questions and data to get the outcome they want.
Based on the political answers the scientists are not asked "what should we do", rather "do you have any hard evidence why we can't do"... as and when convenient.
An example is meat packing ... we get cases (which is hardly surprising) because of the conditions but instead of asking "what other industries have these conditions" the focus is on making meat packing exceptional...I wouldn't want to be the person who gets sacked for asking "shouldn't we extend this to fish because the conditions are very similar and of course noone in government is going to ASK. (especially back when the political officer Cummings was sent to prevent this sort of awkward question)
We were forced to send the kid into a virus packed school until the last day when he was in the last 7 of his class.
You also admitted a few weeks ago that you had no control of your son in the evenings when he was mixing with his friends outside school, so I think it's a bit rich to blame schools for all of this.
Stay safe everyone and thanks for all the advice and information offered in this thread.
I know it helped me through this year and it will do into the next.
STW, at its very best. No, people at their very best.
+1. My understanding of what is going on and what needs to be done has been massively improved thanks to this place. So easy to get confused, lost and just give up by following other news sources.
Stevextc, you are not forced to send your child to school. You are fully free to remove them from the education system and home school same as anyone else in the UK.
If your views on the value of schooling are as your other threads suggest, home schooling might provide an alternative, perceived lower risk alternative.
I was really hoping the new variant was just piggybacking on spread in schools, but it's looking more like its driving it 😭
https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1344774555718590464?s=19
I can't see schools staying open, unless we could do a pooled test in each class bubble weekly to keep open what we can!?
Its bad for my kids homeschooling, I know it's really bad for many others
unless we could do a pooled test in each class bubble weekly to keep open what we can!?
TiRed has been proposing this for... months and months.
TiRed has been proposing this for… months and months.
Were talking about running it in work to keep the institute running
The new strain appears more infectious. The most robust estimate (also done by myself) is the weekly ratio of cases by prevalence of strain.
There are sound biological reasons why this increase is not laudable and it’s been shown in vitro. The effect is not so big on a pharmacological (logarithmic) scale - about 2/3 of a log10. Your antibody response to he virus will easily span that range and more.
There is epidemiological evidence of enhanced spread, most notably in the population who were less likely to spread the WT strain originally (young children). The magnitude of effect in this younger age group is not huge (20% more). But that pushes insignificant vectors of transmission into some significance. Teens and mid 20’s are of course spreading this new variant as they did the old.
I can’t see schools opening until half term, myself. When death rates rise in two weeks time, when the decision will be taken, it will look like a sensible choice. My heart goes out to anyone with school aged children. My son will most likely be running zoom lessons for his pupils.
The choices made back in the autumn directly limit the options open to us now. The reason that we can not control this new strain is because of poor political choices (obvious to all at the time) made by our government, months ago.
Put us on the back foot and dithering all over again, like we have been since February. If I squint really hard I can kind of almost see how people can argue they didn't know better back then, but to completely **** up twice, blatantly ignoring expert advice the second time, well, the public, and the opposition, frankly need to be clubbing them over the head with that fact. Criminal lack of judgement - and balls.
Stevextc, you are not forced to send your child to school. You are fully free to remove them from the education system and home school same as anyone else in the UK.
If your views on the value of schooling are as your other threads suggest, home schooling might provide an alternative, perceived lower risk alternative.
Removing one kid who doesn't need to go into school is hardly going to change the spread of the virus.
In general it's up to him, his mother will be going in anyway...
My point here is that the UK Gov has mandated that if either parent/carer is a critical worker they are expected at school.
It say's absolutely NOTHING about working from home or if only 1 parent is working.
Worse when this gets extended to "Vulnerable children and young people" it will adversely affect those with older carers at home. [which isn't us] but specifically "adopted children or children on a special guardianship order"
Again not blaming the schools, this is the government (as I assume is the "age appropriate book".... but I think it's obvious a child living with grandparents, older relatives or adopted isn't specifically at risk but the older relatives or older adoptive parent is.
TiReD
I can’t see schools opening until half term, myself. When death rates rise in two weeks time, when the decision will be taken, it will look like a sensible choice. My heart goes out to anyone with school aged children. My son will most likely be running zoom lessons for his pupils.
The direct effects on us are minor ... basically it means we can't visit gran. (Not the end of the world by any means)
The concern is that specifically taking/mandating children with vulnerable carers and with parents/carers in critical (medical especially) roles they are going to spread the virus to high risk carers and people working in medical positions both hitting our medical capability and spreading it further/faster to more vulnerable people.
3 of the pubs in my town have gone up for sale this week. I'd be surprised if more than 20% of them survive this
My point here is that the UK Gov has mandated that if either par hient/carer is a critical worker they are expected at school.
It say’s absolutely NOTHING about working from home or if only 1 parent is working.
Meanwhile, in the real world, those in that position have not been sending their kids to school. The schools have not been pursuing them (unlike the vulnerable kids they did try and follow up on) and, lo and behold, social services snatch squads have not been kicking in doors to take them in to care.
That aspect of the situation is not as bad as you keep imagining it to be.
3 of the pubs in my town have gone up for sale this week.
Some of ours are up for sale as well. I don’t think they’ll get snapped up ‘till they are reclassified and can be made into homes. This depresses me no end.
64,043 cases on 29 Dec (cases by specimen date, data likely still incomplete). 🙁
So frustrating seeing the car crash coming (for months!).
Can someone brainy comment on this chart currently on the BBC please? It’s quite out-of-date, as we’re now up to 3,500 Covid deaths in Wales, but it does seem to suggest that if you add Covid and flu deaths together, they come to fewer deaths than normal in 2020.
If that is the case, do staff absences alone explain the extra pressure on hospitals, or is it that we don’t normally bother to treat a lot of these people, or...?
Influenza transmission is controlled more effectively than COVID. Hence controls for covid have a bigger effect on influenza. But deaths are not the whole story. Morbidity (posh word for sickness) is worse for covid, so admissions are up compared to flu. Management in hospital has improved but patients are staying longer before release.
Staff pressures are a thing, but it will be bed pressure that sounds the alarms.
Where is that as at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54463511 they report that “ "The mortality rate for Covid-19 is also significantly higher than influenza and pneumonia rates for both 2020 and the five-year average," said Sarah Caul, from the ONS.”
Radio 5 live just giving the gov a kicking (rightly). Chief nurse from a London hospital pleading people follow the rules, hospitals are at 200% capacity, all non urgent cancelled, entire floors converted to itu.
Then professor/chief lecturer of epidemiology at queen's London following up on imperials research that the new strain increased r by 0.4-0.7!!! Apparently in November lockdown lite old strain r=0.9, new=1.6. she was very clear nothing short of full national hard schools closed lockdown will get on top of this and the 'oooph!' in Boris's goolies.... She said this was very evident from data even before schools finished before Christmas, no excuse for late decisions!
MoreCash
Meanwhile, in the real world, those in that position have not been sending their kids to school.
Then why on earth is it the rule ???
Please explain which part of this isn't clear
"If you are a critical worker, or your child is vulnerable, we expect you to send them to school from the first day of term."
Why would they make that the rule?
What is the rational if one parent is a "critical worker" but the other is at home that the child MUST physically attend? I frankly have no idea what this is meant to achieve other than spreading the virus to critical workers.
Having made that the rule the schools then have a duty of care to act.
Some may act more quickly than others.. some might even try and ignore it? Who knows unless it's in writing.
unlike the vulnerable kids they did try and follow up on
Vulnerable means whatever, such as poor, living with grandparents or just adopted.
adopted children or children on a special guardianship order
those at risk of becoming NEET (‘not in employment, education or training’)
those living in temporary accommodation
those who are young carers
I'm missing ANY rational as to why it's necessary to force a child to physically attend school because they are adopted. What possible bearing does that have? (Other than the average age of the guardian being higher).
Essentially should a single parent with custody settle down with someone and assuming they are not a critical worker they may use remote learning BUT if the person they settled down with goes as far as legally adopting the child the child is now vulnerable?
Even worse if that child is a young carer they will be forced to leave the person they care for at home with no care in order to join a class where "the majority" are joining by VC in order to pick up the virus to take back to the person they care for.
The list of "expected on the first day" makes no sense either in terms of being a child of a critical worker or simply because they are adopted.
social services snatch squads have not been kicking in doors to take them in to care
Even if they don't play catch-up with their targets later most carers and parents in that situation are going to be worried they will/might.
Compare it if you will to people at risk of deportation etc. who have followed what rules they can but then get an app that can be revoked at any time.
Assuming you have UK residency and birth certificate it might seem trivial. Indeed many have grown up here, gone to school here and paid a lifetimes tax and NI here then one day the door gets kicked in and they are suddenly being deported.
TiRed: Thanks. I might address all my posts to “someone brainy” in future.
Kilo: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-52380643
Serious lies have been told by the government about vaccine availability.
Government ministers originally said Britain might have 30 million doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca jab ready to go by September 2020.
That was later downgraded to 4 million doses by the end of 2020. In reality, just 530,000 doses were “available to the UK” as of December 30.
The CMO has said shortages will continue until at least the end of March.
So where TF has the idea of significant amounts of the population being vaccinated by Easter come from, and is this the reason for the government deciding to ignore the few weeks Pfizer said their second dose is to be taken after and changed it to 12 weeks between doses?
This feels like a huge kick in the guts to be honest and a lot of the optimism I had in the last few weeks about this vaccine has gone.
In reality, just 530,000 doses were “available to the UK” as of December 30.
Someone has the wrong figures.
Unless "dose" is actually both injections.
Different vaccine scotroutes.
Your chart basically means Pfizer (and Moderna?). No-one will have had Ox/AZ before the 28th as it wasn't licensed before then.
Oh aye !
Have you seen the protests outside St Thomas’ hospital in London last night? We share this lovely Island with some utter throbbers, don’t we? If you think Covid19 is a hoax… go and protest to the politicians, leave the overworked NHS staff and those in their care the hell alone.
Serious lies have been told by the government about vaccine availability.
There's a few steps between a batch of virus being brewed and it being available to stick in people's arms. The 500K figure is the latter, the larger figures reflect the amount of virus that has been brewed. In Boris' last presser JVT was clear about limited capacity in "fill and finish" and that's the bit that needs to happen between the bigger and smaller figures.
So not really serious lies, just figures quoted without context or definition. (though the 30M figure seems to be one of Boris' moon shot claims)
So not really serious lies, just figures quoted without context or definition. (though the 30M figure seems to be one of Boris’ moon shot claims)
That depends what you mean by serious lies....
Fake EU banana laws didn't seem so important at one time... £350 million on the side of a bus? We have more than enough PPE? We lost the email? Care homes are safe? We are more than prepared? Dominic didn't break any laws...
You can theoretically dismiss them and well pretty much any statement that has left him mouth since he was at Eton all as "minor lies" but surely there is a pattern.
There will be a maximum fill rate of the vaccine final product into vials, these will then require qc testing under gmp conditions which will take a week or so.
from there the batch would then need to be reviewed and approved and then undergo qp certification.
The interesting bit is what batch sizes are they making as larger batch sizes mean a lower burden of qc testing.
This is standard for all vaccines and medicines.
vaccines and biopharms are more complex so require more testing types.
I don't know what testing this vaccine would need, but it will take time, but will be safely expedited i have no doubt
That depends what you mean by serious lies
If you ask AZ how many doses they have made they'll say its 4 million, if you ask the NHS how many doses they can administer they'll say 500K. Neither are lies but quoted out of context they are both misleading.
350 million on the side of a bus was provably bollix, but in this case I can't get indignant about lazy reporting of two potentially useful and accurate figures.
Vulnerable means whatever,
Vulnerable is strictly defined.
Please take it over to your own conspiracy thread again before you derail this one.
U turn on London primary schools and they will now ALL remain closed for the first 2 weeks of Jan, I'm on immuno suppresants so I was probably going to keep mine home anyway.
Can someone brainy comment on this chart currently on the BBC please?
We've been taking extraordinary measures to try and slow the spread of CV2. These extra hygiene measures will also reduce the transmission of many other viruses.