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“someone brainy”
You’ll need someone else.
On a serious note, not drawing you out as your question was just honest inquiring, but there are a lot of people finding some data and stating “look at this!”. As if to say there is nothing unusual. Hospital admissions, deaths overall mortality are the usual suspects here.
Of course one has to adjust for the measures taking place! So we’ll have a bad flu season, despite lockdown, contact restrictions, Scilla shut,... I know it sounds obvious, but I see it everywhere. There is nothing normal about 2020. Hopefully second half of 2021 will look more normal. I hope my fitness looks normal by then, anyway. My hour of (no) power in the rollers says a lot to do. More rides less sums. Maybe.
Please take it over to your own conspiracy thread again before you derail this one.
Which conspiracy thread is that?
I'm not derailing anything, I'm pointing out why the virus is spreading and killing people.
Real VULNERABLE people not the definition meaning "adopted" or "poor"
You obviously can't answer the question why adopted children MUST physically go to school or why children of critical workers MUST physically go to school because there is NO scientific REASON.
I mean at least try and come up with a quasi scientific explanation about blood types and antibodies or something weird how they are less likely to be able to spread the virus to an adoptive parent than a natural parent?
Is there any scientific reason why an adopted child specifically needs to go into school when the majority of the class can learn from home?
Surely we should be trying to help the critical workers not forcing them to live separately to their children or forcing children who are caring for a sick parent physically into school to bring the virus back?
It seems like you are trying to justify the inevitable deaths of vulnerable carers and infection of health professionals without saying WHY?
What's the actual point/reason to on one hand force children from high risk of infection families because one parent/carer is in healthcare physically into schools whilst their friends are learning remotely to be put in the same small room as kids who are caring for a vulnerable relative who is also forced into school?
It makes no sense, like when the supermarkets were encouraging pensioners to go at the same time as NHS staff who had little or no PPE at work... I'm not suggesting either group shouldn't have had a time but taking the highest risk of being infected people and putting them in the same room as the highest risk from getting infected was just plain stupid.
Vulnerable is strictly defined.
Yes and I copied part of the definition as applies to this context... in this context it means for example "adopted" or "living in temporary accommodation" for example... it has NOTHING to do with the term vulnerable as defined in a dictionary. The rest of the definition in this context is here:
Dictionary...
e.g. Oxford English
vulnerable
/ˈvʌln(ə)rəb(ə)l/ Learn to pronounce
adjective
exposed to the possibility of being attacked or harmed, either physically or emotionally.
"we were in a vulnerable position"Similar:
in danger, in peril in jeopardy, at risk, endangeredabove
(of a person) in need of special care, support, or protection because of age, disability, or risk of abuse or neglect.
"the scheme will help charities working with vulnerable adults and young people"BRIDGE
(of a partnership) liable to higher penalties, either by convention or through having won one game towards a rubber.
"the authors advise a variable no-trump opening bid which means weak non-vulnerable and strong vulnerable"
As far as I can tell there is a difference between 'expect' children of critical workers to go to school and what you are reading as 'must' go to school.
Expect indicates that there is an assumption that those children will be in school but there is no real compulsion indicated by using that.
If they had put 'must' in there, then the reading would be much more definitive
We’ve been taking extraordinary measures to try and slow the spread of CV2. These extra hygiene measures will also reduce the transmission of many other viruses.
So if it does turn out that we end up with fewer deaths than normal (which seems unlikely to be fair) will we end up with masks and social distancing being made permanent? Will letting the oldies die of flu each year become unacceptable in future?
Well, no, then they have to die of something else. I’m too tired to think this through...
Is society going to change permanently once/if it’s over, do we think?
Grim news today.....
With the end (sort of) in sight and the situation now so grave it does feel like the moment (actually it was probably 2 weeks ago) for the vulnerable to put themselves into super lockdown until they get their jabs. Not to go to a food shop and either have priority click and collect or delivery and failing that family/community deliveries; no meeting anyone outside of their household unit indoors or out; if in multi generational houses splitting the household however most practicable so the vulnerable are isolated (moving in with other oldies, maybe the key worker/school kid moving out temporarily or no go zones in the house, whatever can be done); those with jobs furloughed until inoculated.
No idea what vulnerable means in a practical sense mind - acute conditions and everyone over 70 who can live without care. Those who require care (either professional or from a family member unable to 100 super lockdown with them) are going to have to take additional risks sadly.
If you have an oldie or another vulnerable in your life it does feel like the moment to step up and do whatever you can so they do as little as they can and not to wait for any government change of policy.
I wouldn't be surprised or unhappy to see masks used much more widely after this, but it will wear off over time.
my main hope is that if people are ill then they don't go to the bloody office if they have the option to work at home.
Looking past 2021/22 will there be any drive towards eradication or is it not considered deadly enough to bother?
I don't think they will be able to eradicate.
The vaccines may not give lifelong protection, plus this is airborne, the viruses so far eradicated has a lifelong vaccine protection and they were very infectious but transmitted by skin contact, or in the case of rinderpest water borne.
Plus with rinderpest they had the option of killing populations infected as well as vaccinating as it was in bovine animals.
the other virus eradicated was smallpox. And we have got close with polio
Edit - plus we don't yet know what the reservoir is, so given an amount of time it could re-emerge and infect everyone who either wasn't vaccinated previously or has lost their immunity
So if it does turn out that we end up with fewer deaths than normal (which seems unlikely to be fair)
That would appear impossible - think we passed the 10 year average point about 4 weeks ago. Would be good if one of the scientists could quantify this. And lets remember, that has been achieved using measures which have been extremely detrimental to society. Without these measures, the results would have been catastrophic.
will we end up with masks and social distancing being made permanent? Will letting the oldies die of flu each year become unacceptable in future?
Well, no, then they have to die of something else. I’m too tired to think this through…
Is society going to change permanently once/if it’s over, do we think?
Not social distancing or the other damaging interventions, but mask use might be more prevalent. Tired and others have talked about how the UK generally is poor in flu response, perhaps we might up our game in this area too.
I’m beginning to think that when we do lockdowns they should turn Facebook and Twitter of as well.
I don't understand why people are not shooting down comments about no excess deaths in 2020? The statistics are very clear: covid deaths are almost entirely excess compared to the 5-year average ie for the uk at least 70 000 excess deaths occurred in 2020 despite total societal shutdown for periods. Any quick search of the various statistics sites including ONS shows this. Am I misunderstanding what people are referring to?
Am I misunderstanding what people are referring to?
Not just you. I'm no expert but follow this thread and general news bulletins/sites, and I'm pretty sure the data was as you describe.
Am I misunderstanding what people are referring to?
Yes, I think so. I posted a chart earlier today that I found on the BBC which seems to suggest flu plus Covid deaths in Wales (not England) are well below average flu deaths. Which I thought was surprising. That’s where it’s come from.
Bearing in mind that flu deaths are focused within a few months of the year so it is possible that flu plus covid deaths might be lower than normal flu only deaths for a portion of the year. I don't think we have the total numbers for q4 2020 though. But over the whole year excess deaths will be way higher.
Thanks MCTD, glad it's not just me! I'm bewildered tbh. Do people honestly think if the numbers were comparable our numbnut Tory overlords would have taken the path they have which goes against every instinct of their little blue blood cells? Is it that people so desperately want experts to be found not to be so clever that they will go along with any clown on youtube? Why even go to a doctor in the first place?! I try desperately to remain balanced and non-judgemental but there is a whole new level of incredulity out there now
There are eight extra weeks of death in 2020 compared with the last ten-year mean. Five weeks compared to the highest in that period.
Ah ok Chrispo I understand now. I find it highly unlikely that will be correct. Covid is causing such unprecedented numbers of deaths across Wales that once the season is over and numbers totalled it will be significantly higher.
This is a helpful comparator from fullfact.
If this modelling is correct then surely the result is baked in at this point?
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1345140662056972292
The immediate mess that is coming is baked in now, yes… unavoidable… but crucially, what we do now will effect what comes on after that… we can ‘bake in’ an even worse future to follow, or we can we can try and avoid it. It’ll be very, very hard to do so, but we must.
Events will catch up with the UK population presently. The admissions are baked in from current cases. Deaths will follow. Sorry.
Lockdown 3 will be upon us soon. Schools will be closed. You don’t need sophisticated models to make projections about future hospital admissions and deaths. The new strain is a challenge, but with full lockdown, this strain can be controlled. Whether it causes greater morbidity and mortality cannot yet be ruled out. I have my suspicions but it is very early.
Vaccination can’t come soon enough. If only to prevent future serious disease.
Are there any good sites that compare countries on a similar basis e.g. hospitalisations per 100k? I'm finding it difficult to compare, for example, how the US is doing vs UK vs other parts of Europe
Actually managed to find a reasonable site this time (I think)
https://boogheta.github.io/coronavirus-countries
I'm going to back away from the news and figures for a few weeks. It's properly scary stuff for myself and mr_oab, and once again the press is starting to get all scary big headline.
I'm going to do my thing, avoid other people and try to keep positive. 👍
I see from a couple the papers headlines that blame is being nudged towards doctors for not agreeing to vaccine delivery changes, the impending schools U turn is being downplayed....
blame is being nudged towards doctors for not agreeing to vaccine delivery changes
The view from the front line is pretty miserable. So far our delivery date for the Pfizer vaccine has been pushed back 3 times, and it seems unlikely not to be pushed back again. Our agreed location to vaccinate our locality patients (a larger GP surgery) was rejected by our CCG because of the need for an area that we can use for patients who show an adverse reaction, and could be arranged to allow for social distancing (in the short the waiting area was too small) we found a Jain temple we can use, but we can't deliver 7 days a week for obvious reasons. All our plans for recalling pts have been scuppered because the 2nd dose timing changes, and we're having to use a different IT system that none of us are familiar with anyway. The lateral flow test kits we were promised haven't arrived, and staff are understandably keen to help but obviously want to protect themselves and pts. as well... And we still have to just run our GP practices in the middle of winter, when it's normally crazy busy anyway, and our staff get poorly...
Can you all just stay at home and not come out again 'til summer please?
Not really contributing but oh how I detest the phrase “Baked in”. As you were...
I’m going to back away from the news and figures for a few weeks. It’s properly scary stuff for myself and mr_oab, and once again the press is starting to get all scary big headline.
It's really important that you pay attention to the news as theres a lot of important information that isn't being communicated to us in other ways, you sound like a bit of a worrier going off past posts but try and look past the headlines themselves and keep paying attention to the important bits. I hate it as well at the best of times, its disgusting that the media are making so much money off the scaremongering.
Have we done the 'mix and match' amendment to the vaccination programme yet? Would be interested to hear from our professionals on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/01/health/coronavirus-vaccines-britain.html
That’s not actually what has been said though...
These are the guidelines:
Previous incomplete vaccination
If the course is interrupted or delayed, it should be resumed using the same vaccine but the first dose should not be repeated. There is no evidence on the interchangeability of the COVID-19 vaccines although studies are underway. Therefore, every effort should be made to determine which vaccine the individual received and to complete with the same vaccine. For individuals who started the schedule and who attend for vaccination at a site where the same vaccine is not available, or if the first product received is unknown, it is reasonable to offer one dose of the locally available product to complete the schedule. This option is preferred if the individual is likely to be at immediate high risk or is considered unlikely to attend again. In these circumstances, as both the vaccines are based on the spike protein, it is likely the second dose will help to boost the response to the first dose. For this reason, until additional information becomes available, further doses would not then be required.
From the green book
https://www.cas.mhra.gov.uk/ViewandAcknowledgment/ViewAttachment.aspx?Attachment_id=103740
I’m going to back away from the news and figures for a few weeks. It’s properly scary stuff for myself and mr_oab, and once again the press is starting to get all scary big headline.
It’s really important that you pay attention to the news as theres a lot of important information that isn’t being communicated to us in other ways, you sound like a bit of a worrier going off past posts but try and look past the headlines themselves and keep paying attention to the important bits. I hate it as well at the best of times, its disgusting that the media are making so much money off the scaremongering.
I'm in a similar boat to you @matt_outandabout, the headlines are properly scaring me. More for the future of my parents and friends than me. But airvent makes a valid point that I've arrived at too. This government are useless at communicating with us directly, preferring media leaks and burying bad news so we all have to keep on top of it to get the information we need. The trick is to file the information into two piles: thigs you can influence, things you cannot. Read past the headlines then focus on what you can do to influence your personal safety, the basics like limiting travel, washing hands, wearing a mask etc. If you hide away from the news you may well miss out on something important. something that could make you and your family safer.
It is a tough time for everyone so fully understand why you want to switch off from it all right now but if everyone did this it would be a lot worse.
I've stopped looking at Covid related news on a daily basis. I don't really leave the house that much other than for my morning walk, and having a partner who is a nurse, so its not like I can control my exposure to Covid.
As a side note/ funny story, my mum got told by a support group for people that have gone through trasnplants (my dad had a liver transplant), that they're all doing very well, since they were already trained to being extremely anal with their hygiene and avoid big groups, due to the delicate post-op months.
but oh how I detest the phrase “Baked in”
Fair enough. “Sent on an immutable trajectory”. Very roughly 50k cases today is 2500 (5%) admissions in a week and 500 deaths a week later. I’ve used a slightly more complex regression of late but the principle is the same.
Hospital residency has increased as patient management has improved. Assume ten days. Those 2500 admitted per day is 25000 patients in hospital. It’s a rough calculation, but good enough.
...
oops sorry nothing to add
Sent on an immutable trajectory
I prefer 'baked in' to that. 🙁
Is immutable the opposite of "you're on mute"?
😋
I'm struggling to believe there can be any truth to this. Apparently Britain is changing the guidelines on the use of the vaccines and it will be permissible to exchange the second dose manufacturer? I would have thought there would have been clinical trials required for this? Have the government abandoned all scientific advice and just making their own rules up now to help hit vaccination targets? Early days and maybe the science will follow?
Sadly the government can do whatever they wish. They have assumed liability from the company. I have no idea what it means for “informed consent”.
I spend my day job designing trials to make claims on “The Label”. You cannot imagine the DAYS of debate that go into the wording of such legal documents that allow a company to make a claim. That’s days within a company and with regulators. What one can and can’t say about a medicinal product is very strictly governed and some of the highest fines ever paid were for breaking these laws in the past. Using medicines off label is permitted. Using them that way by first intent is, I think, unprecedented.
Pfizer could have applied for a license for a single dose based on their 21-day efficacy data. You can imagine how the FDA and EMA would have laughed that one out of court. HMG could conduct a clinical trial to test the hypothesis of no immediate loss of protection. That would be my course of action.
Btw immutable just means unable to be changed.
The trick is to file the information into two piles: thigs you can influence, things you cannot. Read past the headlines then focus on what you can do to influence your personal safety, the basics like limiting travel, washing hands, wearing a mask
Very sensible suggestion.
Just had a conversation with my parents (82 & 78) today that Monday will be the last time they do their big supermarket shop until they get vaccinated, and they'll have to change their shopping routine so I can do it for them on a Friday. I think they got the message.
Is immutable the opposite of “you’re on mute”?
Btw immutable just means unable to be changed.
Indeed. Related more to "mutate" than "mute".
Its like Woolworths pic n mix with the vaccine..
Leave it to this government to find a way to **** it up.
It seems the head bangers Gove/Sunak want to get restrictions lifted as early as late February.
Seems they want to achieve this by getting one dose into as many people as possible.
Meanwhile others are saying that herd immunity cannot be achieved until summer at the earliest.
Politically it seems the May elections are the target presumably under the catchy slogan Covid Got Done.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/covid-rules-michael-gove-oxford-vaccine-b533414.html
To be fair, Gove doesn’t say anything as radical as lifting all restrictions. If he’s hinting about moving away from an effective national lockdown, back to full on site schooling and local restrictions again, I hope his timescales are correct.
Fair enough. “Sent on an immutable trajectory”. Very roughly 50k cases today is 2500 (5%) admissions in a week and 500 deaths a week later. I’ve used a slightly more complex regression of late but the principle is the same.
TiRed, your numbers are still a bit off.
We are currently (recently, since mid-Dec) getting 500 deaths per day, on the cases from 2-3 weeks prior to that which was more like 25k per day. So the current 50k+ will probably work out to be fair bit more than that, 1k deaths per day would be a likely figure IMO. Some uncertainty based largely on the age profile of victims of course. Maybe slightly more younger people infected recently (meaning lower death numbers) but I don't see us staying under 1k/day past mid-Jan unless there is a really abrupt and severe change of policy. Even then it's hard to see. As things stand we are looking at another 100k of deaths (ballpark) through the rest of winter.
If the govt was going to instruct the use of vaccines based on a hunch rather than the results of rigorous testing, why the f didn't we just start using them back in May?
What seems to be getting lost in the discussion about second vaccine dose timing...why tf are we waiting until Monday to start using the O/A vaccine?
The current rate of vaccination is hopelessly inadequate and will do little to stem the rising death rate over the next month. We need to be at the level of millions per week, not the current rate of one million per month.