Forum menu
I thought you didn't believe in R numbers @TiRed? 🙂
There is plenty of evidence for the new variant being more transmissible munkyboy, but I'm guessing you are just playing the contrarian troll rather than expressing genuine interest as a few seconds of googling would have answered your question.
I reckon once the death rate drops in a couple of months the govt will start to open things up regardless of the disease level. By the time the most vulnerable 2 or 3 tranches have been vaccinated there won't be enough fuel left in the system for a proper peak, certainly in deaths and possibly hospitalisations too (though I'm less certain about this, haven't really looked at how this varies with age etc). Basically, we'll be able to just take the rest of it on the chin. I know it's bad for a minority but brexit ****ed up a lot of peoples' lives too and the govt went ahead with that regardless.
Something to look forward too. Will you be able to get the vaccine privately?
i bloody hope so when availability allows because at the mo the under 50s don't get a look in AFAICT.
I thought you didn’t believe in R numbers @TiRed?
Found out! Well they serve a purpose for communication. I hope vaccination brings transmission down significantly to the point of seeing the epidemic shrinking.
As for the new strain. PHE have just published a case control study. I have to say I'm concerned. 1769 matched new and old variant cases. Old had 26 admissions with 10 deaths, new had 16 admissions and 12 deaths. The odds ratio for dying given admission to hospital with serious COVID disease is 4.8 times (P = 0.026), with a relative risk of two-fold. That's not good news - a big effect from a small sample. Give it until the second week of January and if deaths in London and SE have diverged from prediction (the null hypothesis), there will be evidence of the above odds ratio.
If it's more transmissible, with higher viral loads, I see no reason why it should not be more pathogenic too. But it is early days.
i bloody hope so when availability allows because at the mo the under 50s don’t get a look in AFAICT.
The first phase is to vaccinate the 9 levels you've seen in the news (50+). Plan is reportedly to then open up to everyone else with more than likely priorities again in that second phase i.e. certain workers being prioritised over scum etc.
good to know larry. where's this from?
Schools not opening here in MK its the u-turn everyone saw coming
But I don't get why some tier 4 areas they stay open
Does it really mean we're in tier 4.5?
Local WhatsApp school group in meltdown, I can't believe people didn't think this was going to happen!
The next phase – further reduction in hospitalisation and
targeted vaccination of those at high risk of exposure and/or
those delivering key public servicesAs the first phase of the programme is rolled out in the UK, additional
data will become available on the safety and effectiveness of COVID-19
vaccines. These data will provide the basis for consideration of
vaccination in groups that are at lower risk of mortality from COVID-19.
The Committee is currently of the view that the key focus for the second
phase of vaccination could be on further preventing hospitalisation.
Vaccination of those at increased risk of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 due to
their occupation could also be a priority in the next phase. This could
include first responders, the military, those involved in the justice
system, teachers, transport workers, and public servants essential to the
10
pandemic response. Priority occupations for vaccination are considered
an issue of policy, rather than for JCVI to advise on. JCVI asks that the
Department of Health and Social Care consider occupational vaccination
in collaboration with other Government departments.
Not seen it documented anywhere, but with this virus it is just logic.
the country and the world cannot leave a massive reservoir of potential victims of this virus.
Even if the younger population don't die in the ratios of the elderly and those with comorbidities, there is still a substantial healthcare burden both as a result of acute health care needs and the potential longer term effects.
at that point it becomes a financial and economic decision too.
As ultimately is its far cheaper to bear the cost of vaccinating as many as possible against the limitations imposed by not
Plus when you assume that people will have issues travelling if they haven't had the vaccine (see yellow fever for an example) it is just highly unlikely they would stop with the vulnerable
Still trying to figure out if as an asthma sufferer I’ll get a dose of the vaccine
How about phoning your GP?
but with this virus it is just logic.
the country and the world cannot leave a massive reservoir of potential victims of this virus
Why not?
A cost benefit analysis will be undertaken as we progress through this, is it worth spending money on vaccinating those who are highly unlikely to suffer from the virus year on year?
We don't vaccinate everyone for the flu but people die in the thousands every year in the UK of pneumonia from it.
However it might be that vaccinating everyone is the best course of action (long covid etc), time will tell.
@Tired wasn’t the key thing from that paper
Preliminary results from the cohort study found no statistically significant difference in hospitalisation and 28-day case fatality between cases with the variant (VOC 201212/01) and wild-type comparator cases. There was also no significant difference in the likelihood of reinfection between variant cases and the comparator group.
Our elderly neighbour phoned the surgery to book an appointment for a covid jab and was told she was too young.
She is 92 and it's 95 and above here in East Devon.
For me it is the differential between the illness level induced by flu against that of covid.
If long covid is at the level suggested of 1:20 infected then that is a huge potential societal burden compared to the cost of a vaccine.
I agree though it is financial and also a lot will determine if long term protection is given by a vaccine or not. As vaccinating 40-50 million per year might make it challenging
We don’t vaccinate everyone for the flu but people die in the thousands every year in the UK of pneumonia from it.
US does. It’s always an economic decision
@bubs I was careful to state the odds ratio after admission. The rates in the paper Are for overall admissions 16/1769 vs 26/1769 and deaths 12/1769 vs 10/1769. Neither are significantly different as reported in the paper. But the odds ratio IF you are admitted is (12/4)/(10/16) = 4.8. And this is significant. It’s the conditioning that matters.
I've just seen an advert for Ryan air, book your spring and summer break now that the covid vaccine is here
Tagline..
Jab and go...
No seriously, I've not just made that up..
from that matched case study:
Variant cases were more likely to be part of a residential cluster(defined as all laboratory confirmed cases occurring at the same Unique Property Reference Number (UPRN)within 14 days of each other) compared to wild-type comparatorcases(63.5% vs 56.1%, Chi-Squared test p=0.00).
Or, as (AFAIK) nobody has said - when you isolate at home, that means keep away from the people you live with. Talking to people round here, almost nobody considers that
(and great news about the Ryan Air adverts IMO)
Bah - Mrs Pondo's mate has just checked in on Facebook to the Lakes, some distance from her Birmingham home. 🙁
How about phoning your GP?
Don't do that. Mine has put a banner on its website which pretty much says how pissed off they are with fielding endless calls about vaccine timings which are stopping other patients getting through.
I had the golden opportunity this week (had to phone up to get a course of steroids for an asthma flare-up) but managed not to pop the question. I was more worried he thought I was faking it to make sure I was in the 'severe' banding!
Anyone else’s hope for 2021 waining by the hour? I’ve managed to avoid news and the gov website for almost 2 weeks now. Stuff is filtering through and it’s just turning into a nightmare.
I had some physio today and been confirmed with Tendonitis in my knee, so I’m going to have to rest up for a few weeks. I really enjoy my local walks these days to clear my head but walking anymore than 500m is too painful now.
I hate the * ambiguity in the guidelines. It says things like ‘people should not travel for exercise.’ – I want it to * say ‘you will be breaking the law and could be fined up to £? if you travel for exercise’ They do it like that on purpose to appear like it’s all law. It isn’t. It also says you can travel in your local area but doesn’t define local. Is it 2 miles, 10, 50? I mean wtf knows?
I also hate this. I really don't understand why the opposition isn't calling them them out on it. Ministers have repeated appeared on TV and are either lying or haven't read the legislation when suggesting the police will be enforcing what is only guidance. I'll personally mainly stick to the law (and ignore guidance as I see fit), but what that is should be made clear from the guidance, without having to read the actual legislation to see what extras they've made up.
Anyone else’s hope for 2021 waining by the hour?
Honestly no.
When all this kicked off my best case scenario was minimal treatment options and absolutely no vaccines until a minimum of 18 months from March 2020. For all that this is a complete shit show, it’s nowhere near as bad as I first feared.
If anyone would have said to me by the end of 2020 we’d have multiple approved vaccines I’d have thought they’re delusional at best.
@TiRed, that is an impressively distorted analysis which shows a classic case of p-hacking.
There’s no reason to care particularly about chance of death *conditional* on admittance when the chance of admittance is so different. Death per case is basically the same and that’s what matters. Why would it be a bad thing if fewer moderately ill people (who are not going to die) were hospitalised?
BTW I can’t make sense of your numbers. Chance of death conditional on admittance are 12/16 and 10/26 which only differ by a ratio of about 2. Where did 4.8 come from?
If it’s more transmissible, with higher viral loads, I see no reason why it should not be more pathogenic too. But it is early days.
As in, it can replicate to a greater degree in the body than the previous variant before the immune system gets a grip on it?
Yes exactly that. The only bit that is unsure is that if a higher viral load does relate directly to disease burden and death.
Anyone else’s hope for 2021 waining by the hour?
Nope, I'm feeling hopeful by mid April we'll be in a much better place. Aye, there will be a new norm, but it won't be anything like the situation we find ourselves in now.
Heard of a guy locally who died in the Maldives over Xmas, and a couple that came up in same conversation being in Tenerife.
How the **** are people still getting to go abroad? Utter madness.
A theoretical question:
We've got three kids aged 7, 5 and 1. Should both me and my wife get a dose of covid-19 that lays us both low, what do we do about looking after the kids?
Heard of a guy locally who died in the Maldives over Xmas, and a couple that came up in same conversation being in Tenerife.
How the **** are people still getting to go abroad?
A local cafe owner has posted a pic of themselves in Bermuda/Barbados/ somewhere in the Carribbean.
It's a selfie with none other than Captain Sir Tom, who is also out there. I'm a bit conflicted at that one, I'll admit.
A theoretical question:
We’ve got three kids aged 7, 5 and 1. Should both me and my wife get a dose of covid-19 that lays us both low, what do we do about looking after the kids?
Obvs drive to Durham
So, Question ...
I'm in N. Yorkshire (was T2 now T3) and my work is in South Cumbria (was T2 now T4). OK to travel given that the work is outdoors and I might see a couple of walkers going past? Some days I see no-one.
Obvs drive to Durham
It's what any caring parent would do.
travel between areas where necessary for work is allowed
A theoretical question:
We’ve got three kids aged 7, 5 and 1. Should both me and my wife get a dose of covid-19 that lays us both low, what do we do about looking after the kids?
Exceptions to isolation can be made for childcare, you can pack them off to friends etc
I’m in N. Yorkshire (was T2 now T3) and my work is in South Cumbria (was T2 now T4). OK to travel given that the work is outdoors and I might see a couple of walkers going past? Some days I see no-one.
No problem whatsoever. It's work. Just don't jump up and kiss any passing walkers.
And wear a jumper, looks chilly out!
Just don’t jump up and kiss any passing walkers.
Don't worry - they aren't my type!
And wear a jumper, looks chilly out!
Hopefully it'll be a bit warmer in the next week or two, I'll be using the pick-axe to get the stones out of the ground otherwise!
It’s a selfie with none other than Captain Sir Tom, who is also out there
I guess that’s where all the money raised went then. 😉
Seriously, how the f did Adrian Chiles ever get a gig on national radio? His assessment of JVT words yesterday is like something I'd expect to hear from the local supermarket chat, not a national broadcaster.
Thicker than a Michelle McManus jobbie.
I guess that’s where all the money raised went then.
Apparently BA offered him a trip, it was on a list of things he'd like to do. And I guess at his age, you don't put these things off.
Didn't hear Adrian Chiles this morning, but thought JVT was excellent yesterday. Managed to subtly put the boot into the government and the Press.
How about phoning your GP?
I was thinking of emailing the surgery. Not only is it not clear if asthma sufferers are in scope of phase 6, but even if they are I want to make sure I'm included on the list as they missed me off the flu vaccine by mistake and I needed to be added on at last minute
I appreciate however they probably have better things to do than answer these types of queries but no idea where else to get a definitive answer from. Must be tons of asthma sufferers on here so may start a thread asking if they know anything.
Buffoon Johnson should have stood up yesterday, head held high and said, 'under No circumstances should people go out New Year's eve and be with anyone that isn't in their own household'. Maybe not those exact words as I'm not an articulate person.
I walked back from our local butcher this morning. Walking along a quiet route with my mask on, I hear voices behind me. There are 7 men in a gang aged about late 20's early 30's walking together closely, some with a beer can or two. I honestly and truly despair. They could of course be from the same household so I should give them the benefit of the doubt.
Someone mentioned the Ryan air advertisement - I too saw that out of the corner of my eye. Unbelievable.
chance of admittance is so different.
Actually they are not significantly different. Although one would want to see the covariate mix of those admitted to be sure of this.
You are confusing relative risk with odds ratio. When the sample is large, then they are very similar. When small, they can be very different. Odds ratio between treatments is ratio of number died over number lived. Hence (12/4)/(10/16) = 4.8. Relative risk is 12/10 as the denominator for the full populations (1769) is the same and cancel. Relative risk in the hospitalised is (12/16)/(10/26) = 1.95. It’s a big effect for such a small sample size. It might be explained by covariates and just chance.
But five fold is a big effect.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odds_ratio
I was thinking of emailing the surgery. Not only is it not clear if asthma sufferers are in scope of phase 6, but even if they are I want to make sure I’m included on the list as they missed me off the flu vaccine by mistake and I needed to be added on at last minute
I appreciate however they probably have better things to do than answer these types of queries but no idea where else to get a definitive answer from. Must be tons of asthma sufferers on here so may start a thread asking if they know anything.
I'm sure an email would be fine - they just don't want the phone lines jammed up.
Here's the latest advice on priority groups:
Persons with underlying health conditions
There is good evidence that certain underlying health conditions increase the risk of morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. When compared to persons without underlying health conditions, the absolute increased risk in those with underlying health conditions is considered generally to be lower than the increased risk in persons over the age of 65 years (with the exception of the clinically extremely vulnerable – see above). The committee’s advice is to offer vaccination to those aged 65 years and over followed by those in clinical risk groups aged 16 years and over. The main risk groups identified by the committee are set out below:chronic respiratory disease, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), cystic fibrosis and severe asthma
chronic heart disease (and vascular disease)
chronic kidney disease
chronic liver disease
chronic neurological disease including epilepsy
Down’s syndrome
severe and profound learning disability
diabetes
solid organ, bone marrow and stem cell transplant recipients
people with specific cancers
immunosuppression due to disease or treatment
asplenia and splenic dysfunction
morbid obesity
severe mental illness
Other groups at higher risk, including those who are in receipt of a carer’s allowance, or those who are the main carer of an elderly or disabled person whose welfare may be at risk if the carer falls ill, should also be offered vaccination alongside these groups.
Individuals within these risk groups who are clinically extremely vulnerable are discussed separately (see above). Further advice on risk groups, including clear definitions, are set out in the Green Book - Immunisation Against Infectious Disease.
The key thing for you, who, IIRC, has mild to moderate asthma, is that the approach is 'set out in the Green Book', which is the standard 'immunisation bible' for the NHS. And means that those groups considered sufficiently at risk to receive the flu jab should be included in phase 6. That's my reading of it, anyhow.
Thanks for that Martinhutch. Very useful post.