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The deaths for today are just a reporting catch-up, however. The increase in cases has been largely among younger people hence not quite such an impact on health (at least deaths). Just as in the summer. This probably won't last for ever. Just as in the autumn...
So when would the mass exodus from London out to other areas, taking the new strain with them.. Plus
Mixing of households across generations over 3 day's of xmas... Plus
Boxing day sale deniers and Londoners returning, reach the hospitals?
2nd through 5th Jan allows 9 days from pick up, to needing medical intervention.
I wrote a doomsday list. Just in case i am unlucky and do catch it. Bank accounts, savings, mtg. Pensions, will location, insurance details.
Living alone this is a worst possible outcome thing but would make it so much easier for anyone trying to sort through my financials if i am not around.
Germany reported over 1,000 deaths today so it looks like most of Europe is now pretty ****ed.
It’s been really depressing to see pretty much everyone we know in our neighbourhood completely ignoring any distancing / mask / home visit guidance for the last few weeks.
Honestly though, there are areas of Wales, the South Wales valleys mostly where cynicism is like a religion.
Funnily enough, the ex mining communities up the valleys here are the exact same Pjay.
It’s been really depressing to see pretty much everyone we know in our neighbourhood completely ignoring any distancing / mask / home visit guidance for the last few weeks.
The goodwill of the the population is ebbing. It was bound to happen, deaths on the news is someone else's problem even if we/they know someone who's affected. And when I see blatant gatherings and parties with no repercussions it seems drastically unfair that I can't have a completely socially distanced walk in the next county with the wife.
The goodwill of the the population is ebbing
It’ll be back when the cold hard facts hit in two weeks time. All cause mortality for week 51 was 14% above baseline, largely due to increasing baseline and relatively static deaths from lockdown. You’ll need to wait four weeks to see the real signal feeding in.
Finally six months after I suggested it, schools will be tested regularly. A long time coming.
Doubling time of two weeks isn’t as bad as it feels. But london and the South looks terrible.
And when they go back to school, the children still won't need to wear a mask in the classroom...............
One of the few bits of sense that came out of the governments mouth in March was the public only having a limited capacity for lockdowns.
And when they go back to school, the children still won’t need to wear a mask in the classroom……………
And as soon as they are out the door they will be all grouped together ,then creating a scrum at the bus stop ,then squashed together on a bus.
It's bloody stupid ,close the schools and while you are at it... SHUT THE ****ING GARDEN CENTRES.
the public only having a limited capacity for lockdowns.
Maybe. What is clear is that much of the public don’t understand the tier approach.
And the new STAY AT HOME tier means nothing once schools open. We’ve not heard the last on that I’m afraid, we’ll be kicking that can one week at a time, as predicted.
Not sure about the goodwill returning, and it's clear certain parts of the population are in full denial. Combine that with the fact that for people not in the south east panic bubble, the North West for example, things are no different to the last six months, it's been continuous. Figures for my borough are less than half the national average and falling.
No. Because the effect of the vaccines on transmission is not known. The null hypothesis is that they only reduce an individual’s propensity to develop a symptomatic infection.
When will we know the effect on transmission? I presume we'll only see a measurable effect when large numbers of people who are likely to spread get it.
It will be fine schools are safe they keep saying it and there hasn't been a single person infected in a school in the last week.
Johnson presser, he stated non exam years delayed until AT LEAST 18 Jan.......
When will we know the effect on transmission?
Nothing before Easter would be a moderately educated guess. The new variant has an R under Tier 3 of say 1.25-1.5. I can’t see a way out until vaccination has led to perhaps 33% coverage. Then we might expect to see a drop on transmission that takes R comfortably below unity if the vaccine is having an effect. This is of course confounded with policy changes such as Tier 4.
Have they published the list showing which primary schools are going to be delayed going back anywhere yet?
Yes, on sky news
Most of London, Essex, Kent, plus Hastings, Rother & some of Herts
Hancock said this morning that we’ve got 100 million Oxford doses and 30 million Pfizer
Got, or have in the supply chain?
so enough to give two doses to the entire population. But it’s not is it? I assume you can’t mix and match the vaccines!?
It doesn't make any difference. You still have the same number of doses. If you can't mix you plan for people to receive 2 doses of the same one.
Warning Barnard Castle Eye Test content.
Before Xmas my mum who is a severe asthmatic and lives alone was very ill with a chest infection, hospital visit, drama, not covid, less drama. I went up to Kiddi to look after her then bought her down to stay with us as she couldnt manage on her own, I missed the last few days of term at school, mrs anagallis finished early as shes part time and son skipped the last two days. We didnt want to potentially expose her to covid. On monday son goes back, as does mrs anagallis, what I'm doing I havent clue but thats another issue. Now mum is better will still dont want her exposed to our school spreaders so the sensible thing would seem to take her home and with a load of shopping stocked up. But that breaks tier 4 rules...but, well as Cummings showed they are more guidelines than rules arent they? What would stw do?
What would stw do?
I would use my common sense, which in this instance sounds like taking her home. Assuming of course she's not going to start partying as soon as she gets there, or go and visit loads of people.
What would stw do?
Berate anyone who breaks the rules (but quietly do so themself in a way that suits them without mentioning it).
Honestly I'd just follow through on your plan, do what's right for you and yours as long as common sense says it isn't affecting anyone else.
Assuming of course she’s not going to start partying as soon as she gets there, or go and visit loads of people.
All she does is walk the dog once a day.
Tier four allows travel for caring responsibilities, I don’t see how this falls outside that.
Honestly though, there are areas of Wales, the South Wales valleys mostly where cynicism is like a religion.
Having worked in that part of the world during the early 80's I can't think why this would be with a Conservative Government in charge.
I would class that as carer duties which you are allowed to travel for. It's up to you whether you deem moving your mum a sensible idea but I don't see any glaring issues with your plan. I'm currently travelling to my parent's house every 4-5 days to do some housework for them, get some shopping in their cupboards and take the dog for a long walk. They're 40 miles away but it is entirely within the rules to do so. I've had a visit from their local PCSO after someone reported me being there and have also had to go through a police checkpoint that was looking for people heading into the Brecon Beacons, both times they assured me I wasn't breaking any rules.
Berate anyone who breaks the rules (but quietly do so themself in a way that suits them without mentioning it)
and don't forget when questioned about rule breaks claim you haven't broken a single one since the start of lockdown.
Crossing the streams...
Marvellous.
with reference to the insight of RogerHelmerMEP. I more interested in him being MEP, didn't we stop having MEPs about 11 months ago. Guess some people just haven't accepted the results.
Back on topic
All she does is walk the dog once a day.
Not exactly high risk then. Wouldn't the bubbling rules apply?
Come Easter, if the vaccination programme goes well, they'll lift restrictions I imagine.
At that point it's going to rip through the population like wild fire. Less people will die for sure, but those under 50 are going to be at far greater risk of getting it then than they are now.
Still trying to figure out if as an asthma sufferer I'll get a dose of the vaccine. Asthma uk say they have been advised by dep of health that non severe sufferers will be in group 6, but that doesnt tie in with anything they have ever published.
I have my fingers crossed as I really don't fancy taking my chances with the virus.
Now mum is better will still dont want her exposed to our school spreaders so the sensible thing would seem to take her home and with a load of shopping stocked up.
Absolutely do that. Why would you not?
At that point it’s going to rip through the population like wild fire.
Restrictions will lift, behaviours will change at Easter. The “advice” will continue into the Autumn. Adherence to advice will drop right off, and the result may well be exactly what you describe. Prepare to be extra careful this summer, for sure.
Edit: for a personal note, my son has, according to Diabetes UK, the same risk as regarding Covid19 as a 57 year old man. Once you start looking at who “needs” the vaccine, and how many people that is in total, I have zero faith that this government won’t remove restrictions too soon, while many are still awaiting their turn for a vaccine. They’ll be desperate by then to get us down the shops, or madly cramming for exams we haven’t been properly prepared for and shouldn’t be sitting, or in Wetherspoons drinking a cocktail named after our tee-total good time chancellor.
Finish my 10 day isolation tonight midnight. That has got to be the worst christmas "holiday" I've ever had. What a waste of time off work.
Just catching up with the PM conference. I see a new 1600 band has appeared on the map, the last one I saw was 800 as top banding!
Staying home seems the way to go tomorrow night. I wonder if the intellectually challenged will get the message.
I wonder if the intellectually challenged will get the message.
Or the very bright, but young, fit and healthy.
This is an excellent thread on Twitter, I recommend going and reading it all…
https://twitter.com/sophierunning/status/1344348413891112961?s=21
https://twitter.com/sophierunning/status/1344349069775433728?s=21
Thanks for the link.
Looking at the list of boroughs on a map there is a bit of an odd decision with Greenwich where I am and where my kid goes to primary school. As someone above said it seems to be all of kent, most of essex, most of london, but then bang in the centre of that greenwich and lewisham are told to stay open.
Greenwich tried to close the schools for a week before xmas and then got ordered to reopen them by the government, it looks to me like they are being punished for that now, I think we have similar and sometimes higher volumes of cases than neighbouring boroughs that have been told to close, and we share the main hospital with bexley who have been told to close. The hospital has declared some sort of incident over the last few days as its run into issues with oxygen.
That Sophie Walker Twitter series kind of misses the point that the reason that “women are being shown contempt”’is that a great deal of them (and men) have stuck two fingers up to the guidance and are now wingeing now that the numbers have gone up.
Our kids school is shut until the 18th and the whatsapp group is full of people bitching about it but I recognise the names - many of them have spent months sharing covid hoax stuff and of the ones that I’ve seen out and about they have clearly been repeatedly ignoring the rules on household mixing etc - not just for the last few weeks but for most of the 9 months.
Although I wouldn’t say it to anyone in person I’m unbelievably hacked off at now having to try and work with screaming toddlers in the house yet again. I lost my work at the start of the pandemic and it took months of no income and stress to find something else - to the point of literally feeling I was constantly on the edge of a breakdown for a 3 month period.
We had an isolation period just before Xmas care of a parent knowingly sending their kid to school with covid and the thought of more time working in the loft in the midst of a sea of chaos downstairs is again driving me to the absolute brink mentally - not least as we’ve done exactly what’s been asked right from the outset to the point that it’s resulted in behaviour issues in our eldest kid due to lack of time with the extended family and curtailed “normal” life.
Thanks for the thoughts on my situation, it seems like the right thing for her so will get done
That Sophie Walker Twitter series kind of misses the point that the reason that “women are being shown contempt”’is that a great deal of them (and men) have stuck two fingers up to the guidance and are now wingeing now that the numbers have gone up.
Umm... nope. We are in a bad situation in part because people have behaved irresponsibly, but as she says, the pathetic government response has put the burden of dealing with that situation disproportionately on women.
I hate the ****ing ambiguity in the guidelines. It says things like 'people should not travel for exercise.' - I want it to ****ing say 'you will be breaking the law and could be fined up to £? if you travel for exercise' They do it like that on purpose to appear like it's all law. It isn't. It also says you can travel in your local area but doesn't define local. Is it 2 miles, 10, 50? I mean wtf knows?
Surely, the vagueness is essential. For some people the next house is 2 miles… for others there are several supermarkets closer than that.
For some people the next house is 2 miles… for others there are several supermarkets closer than that.
Yet in Ireland, which is a much more rural society they are much more explicit in stating;
People will only be able to exercise within five kilometres of their home.
People will be allowed to travel outside their five kilometres for work, education or other essential purposes.
But obviously we can’t possibly impose clear rules because great British common sense.
I wrote a doomsday list.
I did the same back in March. Don't forget your online details, passwords etc.
Berate anyone who breaks the rules (but quietly do so themself in a way that suits them without mentioning it).
do leave off. 'i want to go on holiday' = stay at home you prick. 'i want to do the best for my elderly mother' = crack on mate. as demonstrated. appreciate you've been under house arrest, and thank you, but we're all trying to find our way through this the best we can.
Anyone seen any evidence on the new ‘highly transmissible‘ strain?
There was a lot of loose wording a few weeks back but little evidence to back it up. We know it exists but is it truly a new strain or just a variant? Is the evidence of transmissibility real or circumstantial (emerging from an area of low restriction and adherence rather than being truly more transmissible)
It seems like a given reported in the press with little to back it up?