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So, assuming an R number of 1.0, and a vaccine of 70% efficacy; if we were all able to review the vaccine immediately (say, via chemtrails) would the R number become 0.3?
@dantsw Put up to show 'we are doing something, look'.
With no staff other than those requisitioned from the referring hospitals they were never going to be used as warehouses unless things are terrible. Then we can expect on harassed nurse to 20 patients and a mortality rate that will look positively medieval.
The saving pennies to give pounds to their pet projects for the last 10 years is going to bite hard.
At least according to the ususal right wing stooges and aided by censorship of press reporting
And amplified by my MP, who spends his days retweeting Alison Pearson and self styled 'I do the numbers' accounts with line graphs that are missing data.
would the R number become 0.3?
No. Because the effect of the vaccines on transmission is not known. The null hypothesis is that they only reduce an individual’s propensity to develop a symptomatic infection. Those individuals may still be infectious but to a lesser extent. Studying the effects open transmission is a population level experiment not a 30k clinical trial.
I hope they do reduce transmission and it would be surprising if they did not. But protection of the individual, with subsequent reduction in healthcare burden, is what we will deliver by vaccination in the first instance.
eulach - thank you for clarifying.
I get my (mis)information from a close relative who has lived in Switzerland since 1963 and my 2 Swiss cousins.
Indeed they haven't had any lock down, but believe me they have been having a normal life (apart from wearing Masks everywhere while out and about, hand washing and social distancing). I worry about them constantly, even though you have a very small population.
What’s going on with the Nightingale hospitals? Are they being used?
Our local Dragon Heart (as they’re known in Wales) has been decommissioned in favour of a smaller semi-temp expansion of the local major Hospital.
One of my mates was/is working on it, they started at a crazy pace, not rushed but unlimited OT for every able body etc, they still shut down for 2 weeks at Xmas though, NHS trust has gone a bit cold on it.
The truth is the Nightingale/DH centres weren’t really for what the public were told they were for. I’m trying to avoid hyperbole, but based on my Wife’s experience in work they never had the staff for them and frankly little effort was made in the Summer to up-skill staff or recruit former medics with ITU experience. My Wife has been asked to work on a COVID ward / DH a couple of times, she’s a Community based wound specialist, she hasn’t worked in a hospital for years.
I think at best they were going to be used to house patients who are recovering from COVID, but more likely they were going to be used if the NHS was completely overwhelmed to keep those in the highest risk categories comfortable, most would have died.
The Ox/AZ vaccine being given single dose to as many as possible, then a second after 12 weeks seems sensible to me. Any experts with a contrary viewpoint?
Marvellous.
https://twitter.com/TheDailyMao/status/1344098622888022016
The Ox/AZ vaccine being given single dose to as many as possible, then a second after 12 weeks seems sensible to me
Seems sensible given the situation we're in. My only concern is that it's hard to put out a message that one dose protects you enough to justify delaying the second dose and then expect everyone to turn up for their booster.
Just watched the vaccine briefing, once again the press failed to address some key questions to the panel.
The efficacy of AZ vaccine was quoted at 70% after 21 days for a single dose, but what would have been interesting is the data for the 30% who did develop covid, i.e. what proportion of these had mild, severe illness or died. It’s the reduction in death or very severe disease which we should be looking at. Has anyone seen this data?
Info I read suggested the second dose is for longer term immunity rather than better.
Woops.
I've heard that a patient in Israel got the equivalent to about 5 doses because the Pfizer vaccine isn't in it's final form - the nurse used the entire vial. Doubt that this would cause an issue with the patient, but it's slightly amusing to me that a company like Pfizer is getting such wild filling results.
The Ox/AZ vaccine being given single dose to as many as possible, then a second after 12 weeks seems sensible to me. Any experts with a contrary viewpoint?
I suspected they wouldn’t do that, just because Tony Blair called for it last week ha ha.
It seems one of those ‘least worse’ solutions to me. The roll out here in Wales had been pretty slow compared to England because we don’t have the infrastructure for the Pfizer vaccine, I noticed that David Lammy was rightfully saying that 1 in 2000 people in England were catching COVID every day recently, in Wales it’s been 1 in 1000! We really need an emergency deployment here, and frustratingly most of the plans that have been in place for months haven’t been put into action yet because they either can’t get the vaccines quick enough or they can’t store it.
The diluent doesn't look to be supplied with the pfizer multidose vials either, so that will be another logistical/error point for countries with poorer health care.
That welsh graph takes some explaining.
The truth is the Nightingale/DH centres weren’t really for what the public were told they were for.
Exeter became a hub of cancer treatments and scans.
Patients who used it said it was much better quicker and easier to use than the RD&E.
Who would have thought that small dedicated units would work so well?
There was some publicity about receiving their first covid patient but it has been very quiet since.
Next they will come up with the idea of small convalescent hospitals where patients in recovery can go.
The truth is the Nightingale/DH centres weren’t really for what the public were told they were for. I’m trying to avoid hyperbole, but based on my Wife’s experience in work they never had the staff for them and frankly little effort was made in the Summer to up-skill staff or recruit former medics with ITU experience. My Wife has been asked to work on a COVID ward / DH a couple of times, she’s a Community based wound specialist, she hasn’t worked in a hospital for years.
Identical comments have been made by my partner. They have barely enough staff to cover hospitals. They've each been asked to do a month in a "covid ward".
Similar to what you said. My believe is the Nightingale hospitals were overflow facilities in case this pandemic ended up being worse than it was (also a PR move without a doubt).
I don't think it was a PR move... it was just copying the practices that became essential in Spain and Italy early in the year/pandemic... we avoided the worst of that failure of capacity (just)... and then we had half a year to get ready for the second inevitable wave that would hit when the NHS is at its most stretched, in winter... did we do what's necessary to prepare...? Friends and family who are in NHS roles in different bits of the UK suggest not.
So the consensus is that we're about to watch chaos unfold then?
Q2 2021 = SNAFUBAR?
FWIW the equivalent hospital in Glasgow has also been used for a number of other treatments since it was commissioned.
Watching the MHRA presser, apparently they have decided that it wasn’t the half/full doses that gave the increase in efficacy, but delaying the second jab to 12 weeks.
Maybe this pandemic has made me far too cynical.
I think they where spun far too eagerly in the media... the way they were presented invites justifiable cynicism. Being ready with overflow field hospitals was shown to be necessary by the countries hit hard before us though... they were a sensible, if oversold, precaution... don't you think?
The truth is the Nightingale/DH centres weren’t really for what the public were told they were for.
I agree.
Let’s just wait and see what’s happening with the Nightingale hospitals and staffing in the coming weeks....
I think they where spun far too eagerly in the media… the way they were presented invites justifiable cynicism. Being ready with overflow field hospitals was shown to be necessary by the countries hit hard before us though… they were a sensible, if oversold, precaution… don’t you think?
I think they were necessary (I kind of touched on it before), I also think it was an excellent chance for the government to show preparedness and being proactive. On the other hand, the preparedness at every other level, seemed completely insufficient, given that there were other countries in Europe (and also outside) from which they could have applied the "lessons learnt".
Announcement on tiers at 3pm.
Matt Hancock denies the London Nightingale is being decommissioned. No doubt that is semantics.
No. Because the effect of the vaccines on transmission is not known. The null hypothesis is that they only reduce an individual’s propensity to develop a symptomatic infection.
Which nicely illustrates the idiocy of null hypothesis significance testing, because I doubt there is a single epidemiologist on the planet who truly believes that.
Unlike most other vaccine trials, Oxford did not control for time between doses. The others did and it is in their label. So the Oxford vaccine has more flexibility. I have no idea why they decided on that course of action. But the label you get for use is determined by the study you conducted.
Agencies are primarily about protection and public safety. Efficacy is a relatively recent thing. Up to 1963 you could make any claim you Wanted. All the FDA cared about was safety. That’s not true not of course, but they still always consider safety first.
Which nicely illustrates the idiocy of null hypothesis significance testing,
Said the Bayesian 😉
Statistics does not tell you know, only the confidence with which you know it. I agree with the sentiment, but what you can claim is a different legal kettle of fish. And companies have paid some of the largest ever fines (billions) for playing fast and loose with those claims!
Hancock’s speech in the HoC seems to be suggesting that the Pfizer vaccine dosing is also changing to 12 weeks for 2nd dose.
Edit: Nicola Sturgeon just confirmed this in the Scottish Parliament.
Both vaccines 2nd dose now 12 weeks after 1st dose
Well everyone who thinks rationally is at least close to Bayesian 🙂
But the important point is that, in answer to the previous question, the R number probably would reduce substantially, it could possibly be either higher or lower than 0.3, but no-one would actually expect it to stay at 1. There is as yet no strong observational evidence to show this, but it would be very unusual for the vaccine to not have this sort of effect.
but it would be very unusual for the vaccine to not have this sort of effect.
I want to agree. But that Oxford vaccine was pretty poor compared to the mRNA vaccines. Perhaps enough to offset the increased transmission of the new strain.
Stuck in a traffic queue, everyone is a Bayesian.
The outdoor Festive 500 riders around Southampton will be rejoicing, they can ride in pancake flat New Forest from tomorrow.
IOW changing to tier 4 too after having such low positive test numbers through most of the pandemic.
I noticed that David Lammy was rightfully saying that 1 in 2000 people in England were catching COVID every day recently, in Wales it’s been 1 in 1000
Why is it so high in Wales (relatively speaking), and why haven't their tighter restrictions had the expected effect?
Hancock said this morning that we've got 100 million Oxford doses and 30 million Pfizer, so enough to give two doses to the entire population. But it's not is it? I assume you can't mix and match the vaccines!?
The tier restrictions are irrelevant if people ignore them.
Why is it so high in Wales (relatively speaking), and why haven’t their tighter restrictions had the expected effect?
They haven’t been much tighter and hardly anyone has stuck to them
We were put into tier 4 on the 20th til Jan 4th. Do we know if that has been extended ? Am I getting ready to open the shop or decorate the kitchen?
Can't see anything on the news.
I assume you can’t mix and match the vaccines!?
I assume not but will defer to someone knowledgeable on such matters. I do wonder when 'these' become available privately if there is any harm in doubling up so in essence having the AZ one via the NHS then having the Pfizer one on top done privately.
981 deaths today. That's the (official) record, is it not?
Another 50K cases and 981 deaths today! The cases from the Xmas day mass mixing still won’t have have filtered through.
Think it will get pretty ugly in the next few weeks.
981 deaths today. That’s the (official) record, is it not?
I thought we’d nudged just over 1k in the first peak, but maybe that got adjusted down when they introduced the 28 day rule.
The deaths have been relatively low over Xmas so could be partly a bit of catch up in reporting.
and yet we continue with the tier micro management nonsense.
And the secondary schools issue punted back a week or so. I imagine reality, about both levels of infection and no doubt the achievability of their mass testing initiative, may well have set in by the 11th/18th though.
Why is it so high in Wales (relatively speaking), and why haven’t their tighter restrictions had the expected effect?
Apparently we’re genetically predisposed to be unable to socially distance, or something like that. A councillor said that it was on our DNA to be ‘close’ or something.
Honestly though, there are areas of Wales, the South Wales valleys mostly where cynicism is like a religion.