Why should the response to the virus be guided by what the great unwashed think?
Because the government are populist reactionary idjits trying to please as many people as possible in the shortest of short terms. There is no long game here.
Just seen a link to the great new traffic light system. Apparently the top level with max restrictions is.......Green! FFS!
Will there be a catchy 3 word slogan?
I love a good slogan, me
Remember the last time we were given some clear ‘bands’… describing restrictions and when they would be introduced and removed, and why? No, I didn’t think so. We were though. They didn’t stick with it for a whole week.
Just seen a link to the great new traffic light system. Apparently the top level with max restrictions is…….Green! FFS!
Rimmer : Step up to red alert.
Kryten : Sir, are you absolutely sure? It does mean changing the bulb.
Rimmer : There's always some excuse, isn't there?
Apparently the top level with max restrictions is…….Green!
Is that a lazy journo thing, or a government document or communication? I suppose, if it's the first... it still shows how the "a source says" style of informing the public is part of the reason we're all increasingly confused.
It was the Mail Online, which has now been updated.
I don't know about anyone else, but anecdotally this second wave is shaping up to be worse than the first. In the past week I've heard of 3 infections of people at my work, and just now about infections in year 10 of my kid's school. Back in March there were none at work or in school.
There's no direction or leadership coming from govt, no apparent sign that they intend to support people as they did in March, and as a result absolutely no appetite for another lockdown among the public. It's going to be utter chaos.
I had pretty much this, 3-4 dry coughs every 10 to 15 mins for 2 days
That's not encouraging. Although his were phelmy coughs apparently. He obviously discounted having covid out of hand so won't be getting a test. I'll maybe keep myself to myself for a few days and hope I'm fine.
and as a result absolutely no appetite for another lockdown among the public
Chatting to folk I know (mostly locally) they're happy to do another "lockdown" as we had earlier this year on a couple of provisos; everyone else does too (accepting there will always be a few knob-ends) and that there is support from the Govt for both income and businesses. I think the majority accept that we can't have an indefinite lockdown due to the economic cost and that knock-on impacts on folks physical and mental well-being but that another 4 week period should be sustainable to try to knock the numbers back down.
everyone else does too (accepting there will always be a few knob-ends) and that there is support from the Govt for both income and businesses
And those are exactly the two things that the govt appears to have ruled out. Looks like we're heading for the US approach. Essentially the message from govt is 'We can't be arsed, you're on your own'.
I love a good slogan, me
That's a rubbish slogan. HTH
Chatting to folk I know (mostly locally) they’re happy to do another “lockdown” as we had earlier this year on a couple of provisos; everyone else does too (accepting there will always be a few knob-ends) and that there is support from the Govt for both income and businesses
Yep, I'd agree with that. A set time period (4 weeks I'd guess), clear rules on what can and can't be done that everyone adheres too, and support for the businesses and people it affects.
If you can't do the latter then people will be less likely to adhere. I don't see for instance how you can close down the entire hospitality industry again and not offer any support for it, it'll simply not exist when you reopen.
I don’t know about anyone else, but anecdotally this second wave is shaping up to be worse than the first. In the past week I’ve heard of 3 infections of people at my work, and just now about infections in year 10 of my kid’s school. Back in March there were none at work or in school.
I don't want to do anything to try to defend the Government, but in reality there were little or no testing done for Covid in March. Back in Feb and most of March it was tearing through the population completely invisibly. We were still having mass sporting events, bars and pubs were packed, shops, no social distancing, no masks until the 3rd week of March.
The Government provide some graphs here.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk
The cases graph is scary, but without going all Trump on it, it represents a spike in testing as much as it represents a spike in numbers.
Looking at the graphs for Healthcare and Deaths, yes it's obviously rising, but it's not rising as sharply as it did in March. Will it be worse than last time? That's the million dollar question really.
To know, I think we have to know how has it occurred? Boris would like us to believe that it's because we all got a bit lax about it, and if we just listen to them now, it'll come down again... I don't know how true that it, in Caerphilly near where I live, they went into local lockdown around 4 weeks ago, numbers have fallen massively but not enough (at the moment) to let them out of it. Other regions went into lock down a few weeks later, some places have improved, some have gotten worse. There's loads of valid theories why, but they're holding steady at best.
The NHS seemed to be absolutely sure we'd have another peak now, it's 'Cold and Flu season' when we close windows and spend more time indoors creating the perfect environment for it to spread. If that's the case it could well be worse, because it could carry on until Spring. That said, if we case our minds back to March / Apr and May this year, we had glorious weather for the most part, as we did in Sept when this all started. Maybe Boris is right? Either way, if we can't vaccinate our old and vulnerable soon and it does carry on until April/May again, it might result in more deaths, even if we manage to keep the curve flatter this time.
The Oxford / AstraZeneca phase 3 vaccine trial is due to end this month or next, and there's talk the Government may decide to use emergency powers to approve it's use without a license for the most vulnerable people straight away, which could make a huge difference, not without risk of course.
The cases graph is scary, but without going all Trump on it, it represents a spike in testing as much as it represents a spike in numbers.
Unfortunately the hospital admissions and deaths a tell us that the rise in cases since July is real whatever the postive test graphs show or how many tests are done. The number of cases is no doubt lower than before the Spring lockdown but it's high enough to be putting stress on the healthcare system again and it's hard to ignore that.
Unfortunately the hospital admissions and deaths a tell us that the rise in cases since July is real whatever the positive test graphs show or how many tests are done. The number of cases is no doubt lower than before the Spring lockdown but it’s high enough to be putting stress on the healthcare system again and it’s hard to ignore that.
Oh absolutely, there's no disputed that we've had a rise in cases since September and things are worse now than in July.
The questions was is this second spike (I refuse to say wave, as this is still the same wave) worst than the first one? In terms of growth of numbers, no, it's rising as a lower rate as you'd expect given the current SD rules etc that weren't in place in Feb / March.
As for putting stress on the Healthcare system. I can only comment on my local Hospitals because my Wife works in the NHS in our area. At the absolute speak in April things were dire, we were up to 85%-90% of ITU capacity. That isn't unusual for a ITU unit, patients come and go often on the basis of capacity as need, but as cases were rising there was a real chance they'd run out of room. As for the rest of the system - Hospitals were near empty. By cancelling electives, outpatient surgeries and discharging people there has never been so much spare capacity. Now we have around 400 extra ITU beds and provision for a lot more, thanks to expansion, temporary wards etc, plus extra training for Docs and Nurses in acute care. Obviously they're not relaxed about it, but our NHS trust isn't expecting to be over-run in any credible scenario, they're better than that.
One of the interesting things about this virus is how hard it is to diagnose. During the early stages, when the only people who got tested were people who were symptomatic, only 5% of tests were positive. That either means that for every 20 people that real doctors thought might have the disease only 1 actually did, or the tests are generating a lot of false negatives. Assuming it isn't the latter, this probably explains the huge disparity between the numbers of people saying 'I'm sure I've had it' and the levels of antibodies detected in the population.
Boris would like us to believe that it’s because we all got a bit lax about it, and if we just listen to them now, it’ll come down again
We haven't. The fact is, in the absence of significant levels of immunity, the population rate of infections is a dynamic system with a significant lag from interventions to outcome. We relaxed constraints and sent children back to school in early Sept. That released the brakes and the train of infections-admissions-deaths builds up a head of steam. OK we still have some constraints (brakes applied, many locally), so the acceleration is (thankfully) not as rapid as March. But we have relaxed enough to accelerate.
The trick will be to apply just enough brake to avoid acceleration. Systems with a lag (hysteresis) are hard to control - a good example is the economy. We see boom and bust cycles, and this epidemic will be no different. the typical timescale for change is about two weeks.
Brakes are going on to try and slow down the acceleration in admissions and deaths, we know that full lockdown is more than enough to control spread, but that is economically and socially challenging. But where is the point of equipoise? (I don't know BTW and neither does the Government, nor Sunetra Gupta) - there will be one. It may cost excess lives to find it over the winter months, or (as I predict) we will trade flu deaths for COVID19 deaths.
That isn’t unusual for a ITU unit, patients come and go often on the basis of capacity as need, but as cases were rising there was a real chance they’d run out of room
BTW ITUs did not run out of room due to patient triage - when they are less occupied, the very elderly may be admitted. When they were at near-capacity they did not. Grim but a sad fact of life.
Some sensible explaining from the Covid Symptom Study
@n0b0dy0ftheg0at keeping crews together is the general way it works but I'm working for an agency and we cover wherever crew are needed. We cover for sickness and holidays so can move around a lot, could be on five different rounds in a week. I've just gone on one though where they don't have a second loader at all so the idea is I'll stay on that now. I imagine in the Post Office the biggest issue is the morning sort and throwing up your walk, I'm not sure how it is now but 30 odd years ago when I was a postman for a couple of years you were working shoulder to shoulder then.
Its all well and good focusing on the contact rate but if people are ignoring the request then what's the point.
Studies showed what, less than 20% adherence rate.
But where is the point of equipoise?
You mean the point where - in the absence of significant herd immunity - the infection/admission/death rates remains constant? Doesn't that beg the question of what rates of infection/admission/death you're trying to keep constant (I think you call it the R? Plz excuse my layman's knowledge)? Presumably, the higher rate requires harder braking to keep constant as well?
I think we're back to some confusion about the ends of these measures. Are we trying to minimise the death rate or 'optimise' the death rate (sounds heartless I know) to the ends of preventing the ICUs being overwhelmed but preserving economic activity?
A three tier easy to understand* system sounds good to me, easy to know which band you are in.
*Assuming it is easy to understand. I find it hard to believe we won't have a half term lockdown, but now there's science to prove it delays but not removes C19, I s'pose it won't happen.
Systems with a lag (hysteresis) are hard to control – a good example is the economy. We see boom and bust cycles, and this epidemic will be no different. the typical timescale for change is about two weeks.
It's probably more like an autopilot in turbulence since money and finance almost have lives of their own, but I take your point. OTOH, the technical analogy shouldn't be leaned on too hard since human behaviour in open (social) systems seems to always defy being treated as solely a technical problem.
You mean the point where – in the absence of significant herd immunity – the infection/admission/death rates remains constant
Yes, R = 1.
There is no herd immunity of note, it has not played a significant role in the transmission dynamics. Were it so, hospitalisations would not be accelerating. There is some balance between lockdown and where we are now. We don't know what combination of education, hospitality, work, public transport leads to balance. But we probably aren't far from it - a lot closer than March, that is for sure.
the technical analogy shouldn’t be leaned on too hard
The analogy is really why we see cycles of boom and bust, nothing more.
Not sure if this is one for here, the Boris Johnson thread or the Easing of Scottish Lockdown thread but it's a good article.
but now there’s science to prove it delays but not removes C19
Say what? There are countries that currently have single figures of people infected. Nowhere can have zero figures while it allows travel from countries with thousands of infected people… but there are proven controls that can drive infection rates right down to close to zero. We might chose not to do so, but that is about politics and society, not science. Our “lockdown” worked (but took longer than it should have, because of a late start)… what came after it (you know, the things the government said we needed to control the virus after lockdown, and their chums are still failing to deliver months later) are failing.
A three tier easy to understand* system sounds good to me, easy to know which band you are in.
*Assuming it is easy to understand.
completely agree, my worry is that we have 5 point tiered system at the moment
but its a vague & the government havent actually stuck to it
eg workplaces were supposed to remain closed until level 2 but were were encouraged to go back to work, pubs & cafes etc at level 3
There was an example of how Covid screws up hospitals on the radio earlier. They interviewed a very grateful 57-year-old sporty guy got Covid 6 months ago. 3 months in a coma in intensive care, three heart attacks, one pacemaker, a list of other horrors I've forgotten, then when he came round he had to learn to do everything again; to move limbs, to eat, to walk. Six months in hospital!
If 15 000 a day are testing positive maybe twice that are catching the virus if you take into account completely asymptomatic and those who don't bother to test but assume most people with some symptoms will test. So 300 000 in 10 days, 3 million in 100 days, 11 million a year - over 4 years to herd immunity with several hospitals devoting 20-40% of capacity to Covid.
We (the French) need to do better at keeping our noses clean.
over 4 years to herd immunity
if immunity only lasts for <year like other coronaviruses we may be in trouble, if its longer like SARS seems to we may be OK....
There are countries at level 1 in that old chart… but we’re still pretending it’s not possible… because we can’t be arsed to spend a month or two making it happen… so we’ll stay near top of what chart all winter, destroying what’s left of many sectors and counting the job losses and ignoring the cost of the “do as little as possible” approach in the long term.
We are at 4 on the Nandos scale - you'll be hard-pressed to get a minister to state even that!
A three point scale would be easier:
1) Do more RED
2) Do the same AMBER
3) Do less GREEN
We're at the Do more point. definitely RED.
Today's data as they do not show it on the BBC
See if you can spot a trend that matches Nando's Code 4. 3000 admissions and 1000 deaths/day was April.
All a bit shit but...one (not me) couldgo out on the sauce tonight, tomorrow, Sat, Sun, Mon & Tues for a good old mingle before any changes to the current regs.
Good to know that our political 'leaders' are so on top of the situation.
because we can’t be arsed to spend a month or two making it happen…
What measures in the next two months would get us to "Covid no longer present in the UK"?
Another complete 2-month lock down wouldn't, that's already been proven. No country that's had the level of cases European countries currently have spread over their entire territory has got back to single figures.
Edukator
Free MemberIf 15 000 a day are testing positive maybe twice that are catching the virus if you take into account completely asymptomatic and those who don’t bother to test but assume most people with some symptoms will test. So 300 000 in 10 days, 3 million in 100 days, 11 million a year – over 4 years to herd immunity with several hospitals devoting 20-40% of capacity to Covid.
Even if that were sustainable, which it's probably not, and if your estimate of the level of hospital usage is accurate, which I doubt, the issue is still the same as it always has been- we have no idea at all if people develop reliable immunity for long enough. Care to gamble an entire country's future on whether or not it's greater or lesser than 4 years? That'd take the same sort of mind that exports food from a country that's having a famine.
P-Jay
Full Member
The cases graph is scary, but without going all Trump on it, it represents a spike in testing as much as it represents a spike in numbers.
You sure about that?
[img] 
[/img]
That's the uk.
Scotland looks like this:
[img] 
[/img]
looks to me like we are on the exact same trajectory.
whether we are on the same line or not, that's basically what I'll be keeping an eye on to see how we are doing.
if your estimate of the level of hospital usage is accurate, which I doubt,
It's based on this:
We've just gone through 20% and the current level of new cases will take us to higher in a few weeks, perhaps 40%.
“Covid no longer present in the UK”?
None - eradication is not an aim for SARS-COV2 management. It isn't going to happen.
Worry not about cases, worry about hospital-seeking behaviour as a surrogate marker of underlying cases. Deaths are very predictable from hospital admissions I am afraid. there is about a 1/7 chance they will not come back at the moment.
My French isn't the best, but I don't see how you jump from that article which says corona usage is above 20% and rising, to stating that "20-40%" is some sort of sustainable run rate for the 4 years.
"Another complete 2-month lock down"- before you can have "another" of something, you have to have had one. The UK's never had a lockdown.
Another complete 2-month lock down wouldn’t, that’s already been proven.
We never had a proper lockdown in the UK. We had restrictions. Quite severe ones, but not a lockdown compared to what others introduced.
That leaves aside the fact that we left it too late, didn't really enforce it all that thoroughly,and released it a bit early.
Edukator, “lockdown” (or other means of the achieving the most effective social distancing) can reduce cases to a level where other measures can be effectively used to further isolate the remaining cases, and stop any freshly introduced cases from spreading. You can look to other countries as to what those measures are. This is my last reply to you though on this topic, all your posts seem to be written to elect a response, and when people do respond, you just jump/dance around in a manner that is too frustrating to be worth engaging with. Please respect that I’m not in any conversation with you from here on in this thread. Thanks.
Fine, Kelvin. I'll continue to reply to your posts though, especially when you post things like this:
There are countries at level 1 in that old chart… but we’re still pretending it’s not possible… because we can’t be arsed to spend a month or two making it happen…
Level 1 is "Covid 29 no longer present in the UK"
That is not going to happen even with a lockdown as strict as Spain, France and Italy had. The virus continues to circulate among those involved in essentila services. It's not that "we can't be arsed".
You keep threatening to stop posting or ignore me, feel free, I'll continue to comment on your posts when what you suggest is so obvoulsy flawed and would create economic, social and health damage much higher than balancing the level of economic activity and stress on hospitals.
Leave me alone.
How about splitting the forums (fora?) into two parts?
Paying (full) members and non-paying (free) members.
If you're a paying member that gets you full view and comment access.
If you're a non-paying member you can only view and comment on posts from other non-payers.
It sometimes feels that threads are dominated by non-payers - to the detriment of paying members.
