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Hospitals were mostly pretty quiet here through the last few waves, not sure why maybe we're just a fairly healthy population compared to some areas that got swamped.
The link isn't broken between cases, hospitalisations and deaths, it's just modified. The graphs will follow each other but the hospitalisation and deaths waves will have samller amplitude.
Hospitals were mostly pretty quiet here through the last few waves
Some "wave two" hospital stats...
That's for the whole of the North East not Gateshead. It doesn't seem to suggest what percentage occupied they were out the total available unless I'm missing it.
It does read that over the North East there were about 100 patients in ITU at the peak?
My local authority has close to the highest case rate per 100,00 in England and has done for some time now, yet daily deaths have stood at zero since mid-March. It’s really hard to see why we’re still doing any of this.
I have to admit to being fascinated by the stats and numbers.
200K population and 500 deaths is 0.25%, compared to the UK wide (128K/66.7M = 0.2%) - so your death rate is 25% higher than the average, but no deaths in 3 months despite a higher than average rate. Of course cases is now and deaths is still possibly a week or two in the future...... but I agree that the case for reopening is still gathering momentum
Why's the rate higher? Could be several reasons, have they all been in the pub watching the football 😉 - I know what you Geordies are like (my mum's from Wallsend, I'm allowed to say that!)
so your death rate is 25% higher than the average, but no deaths in 3 months despite a higher than average rate
We had a very good initial vaccine rollout here with a high uptake at the start. That has slowed a bit since and is behind the national average but it mattered the most early on anyway when it was the elderly getting jabbed. That's my guess.
sounds reasonable.
I think that we should continue to use some (reduced and far less stringent) social measures for now ’till we know more.
Boris has hinted tonight that there will be “some measures remaining in place after the 19th” aka a modification rather than a U turn but assuming it’s current policy on masks and cleansing to remain I’d be in agreement.
Boris has hinted tonight that there will be “some measures remaining in place after the 19th” aka a modification rather than a U turn but assuming it’s current policy on masks and cleansing to remain I’d be in agreement.
I'll be ditching the masks and social distancing like.
Like what?
I’ll be ditching the masks and social distancing like.
As will most people the moment it's announced, along with people who are already non-compliant or incapable of wearing a mask properly along with old dears who think those magic faceshields are acceptable alternatives.
The way out of this now is vaccinating the over 12s.
Like what?
Pardon?
it's a Geordie affectation, like, y'naa.
Oh because I ended the sentence with like, sorry second nature I didn't even notice it marra.
Well maybe not. The next item in the news is Sage list of "interventions" for..... the next five winters. So I guess were to expect periods of reactionary social intervention for some time yet...
Wot with Boris in charge? The man can't even understand the concept of protection when it's in his interest yet alone everyone else.
It’s perfectly fine to say compared to what we have been through that it is broken as the rate is at a much more manageable and acceptable rate. (No deaths is ideally acceptable but that’s not the world we live in)
A 6fold decrease in hospitalisations compared to October isn't 'broken'
As I said before NHS is in a state at the moment, deaths are thankfully v low, but that doesn't mean NHS can't be overwhelmed by admissions alone
Summer helps and hopefully things can be relaxed, but winter flu surge is expected to be big this year
Enjoy relaxation now while you can!
airvent
I’ll be ditching the masks and social distancing like.
If restrictions allow, that is most certainly you're right of course.
My partner is likely to still have to wear them for her 10 hour shifts for the foreseeable so I'm comfortable and actually want to wear a mask in shops for the the odd 10 mins here and there. Ditto hand washing.
I didn’t even notice it marra
Thought you were from Gateshead, not west cumbria !
Things are looking pretty good in Queensland (no doubt you were hanging on this crucial news!).
We had some localised transmission but a 3-day lockdown and thousands of tests has shown it's not really spread anywhere (some were Delta variant). Apart from Brisbane and a local authority immediately north that will get 24 hours more, most of us are back to minor restrictions tonight.
Lockdown process (hopefully) working again.
Looks like New South Wales hasn't been going quite so well. Fingers crossed today's news is better...
Looks like New South Wales hasn’t been going quite so well. Fingers crossed today’s news is better…
31 cases yesterday here in NSW, one week into lockdown.
If you'd have told me that a week ago, I'd have been happy that it hadn't completely spiraled out of control, but I doubt another week is going to get it back down to zero. And if it ain't zero when we open back up, it's just going to flare back up within a day or two given how easily this seems to be transmitted.
Good news is that Batfink Jnr didn't have it (just a cold), so PRASE THE LORD he can go back to daycare and I can post on singletrack work unmolested by a 2.5 year old.
In the meantime, have bought him this to see him through lockdown
Nice bike Batfink, good to see things still ok in Australia
Cute bike. Looks like Lego.
We appreciate the Australia updates. Keep ‘em coming.
Another example of the Australian measures being more effective - yes I know geography and demographics are a factor but it works.
Great looking bike for batfinkjnr 👍 What did dad get?
In the meantime, have bought him this to see him through lockdown
Nice. Hey! Ho! Let's Go!
I'll be impressed if Australia has managed to squash this delta outbreak. Thought genie was well and truly out of the bottle this time. Shows what you can do with proper swift lockdown and decent test & trace.
Sample size of two. But, has anyone with fairly vocal "it's all a lizard plot" type conspiracy believers noticed they've suddenly gone fairly quiet and now talking(quietly) about "them" letting the previously "not real it's just flu" virus infect everyone not vaccinated. And that the vaccines aren't quite the "control mechanism" they previously believed.
I know it's all anecdotal but curios if anyone else has noticed a change of stance. The change on stance with vaccines I think is more tied to almost all of their peers now being vaccinated at least once. And in the case of parents, both jabs.
Great looking bike for batfinkjnr 👍 What did dad get?
I've been on a bit of a spend-a-thon lately - So you're going to have to narrow it down! Best purchase has been a very nice espresso machine and grinder - which I am really appreciating. Shhhh, don't tell the bean-to-cup/Aeropress brigade on here though.
I’ll be impressed if Australia has managed to squash this delta outbreak. Thought genie was well and truly out of the bottle this time. Shows what you can do with proper swift lockdown and decent test & trace.
I think the other states (ie, excl NSW) did very well locking down sooner, leaving less of the genie to stuff back into the bottle. But Australians are a strange bunch: They seem equally divided between "extreme lockdown as soon as we have one case! Slap the cuffs on anyone not wearing a mask!" and the "we're going to have to learn to live with it, iTs JuSt fLu" brigade.
The Federal Government over here is really copping-it for the botched roll-out (#strollout is trending nicely) - people are absolutely furious and rightly so. Me and the Wife are getting our second Pfizer Jabs in a couple of weeks - after that I will relax significantly.
They announced a number of things today: Further reduction in commercial flights (for people given permission to travel internationally), corresponding increase in "repatriation" flights for Australians stranded abroad - which will now all quarantine at dedicated quarantine centres (rather than city centre hotels, which has never seemed sensible to me), and a bunch of other stuff - all interesting, but announced to desperately try to distract the great unwashed from the vaccine availability issue.
the vaccine availability issue.
Me and the Wife are getting our second Pfizer Jabs in a couple of weeks
You're still ahead of me. In fact if you have a strider bike sized child you're likely ahead of or on par with the UK.
You’re still ahead of me. In fact if you have a strider bike sized child you’re likely ahead of or on par with the UK.
Yeah - the 40-50 year olds were given the go ahead to book a few weeks ago.
The issue here is uptake in the age groups north of that.
The R number has reportedly fallen slightly in England to between 1.1 and 1.3 from 1.2 to 1.4 despite the rising infections, does this suggest it is burning out?
Might be a short drop, can't see it burning out yet though. I'm expecting to see it go up in the next few weeks but then we will see the impact of further vaccinations
And the impact of schools being closed. That should reduce the rate of increase as well.
We won't know about "burning out"... 'till a few weeks into the next term.
Weekly increase of 74% doesn’t sound like burn out to me 🙁
The R number has reportedly fallen slightly in England to between 1.1 and 1.3 from 1.2 to 1.4 despite the rising infections, does this suggest it is burning out?
I was similarly curious about this drop in R number last week in Scotland while the number of infections are now at record levels. Seems curious to me.
Part of the fall in Re is going to be down to people modifying their behaviour as they feel the danger has gone up again.
I see the Scottish number is away back up again - now in the range of 1.2 to 1.5
A lot of my thoughts about the education situation in England are echoed in this piece…
Can't help but think the only thing that might stop a full blown "Freedom Day" on the 19th is if Boris gets infected with Delta in the coming days.
Can’t help but think the only thing that might stop a full blown “Freedom Day” on the 19th is if Boris gets infected with Delta in the coming days.
Considering he's had a bout of Covid, I doubt that.
Reinfection rates look to be higher with Delta, so don’t rule it out.
Someone locally collates the daily figures by local authority and posts it up on FB. Been watching the infections go from 100 to 700 a day in the last few weeks, but today had the first deaths reported in a good couple of months, 1 in Derby and 1 in Rushcliffe.
Pressure is beginning to mount yet again hospitals, routine stuff will be getting pushed back again sadly.
The word from the school playground this week is lemon juice is instant positive result on the covid test and two weeks off school...
The word from the school playground this week is lemon juice is instant positive result on the covid test and two weeks off school…
And an A* in Chemistry (stolen from the Daily Mash)
Article about the vaccination programme in Germany: https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/germany-s-vaccination-campaign-the-race-for-herd-immunity-a-70b12434-cd2c-4059-af45-15cbf83c4686
Interesting, what seems like numbers of high numbers of Anti Vaxxers. With delta quite a number of those will need immunity by infection will they not?
What feels like good news in Sydney today: Only 16 cases in the last 24 hours, and 13 of those were in isolation for their entire infections period.
To early to celebrate obviously, but I'm pretty happy that numbers aren't spiralling upwards.
Took the kids to the beach today - it was pretty busy, but obviously loads of room to social distance, and plenty of UV. Batfink Jnr (almost 5) had her first surf lesson - pretty confident that any germs in her nasal cavity have been pretty thoroughly flushed out.
Good to hear thing seem to be being contained in Australia, if not controlled yet.
England will move into a period without legal restrictions where the public will have to exercise "personal responsibility" including on face masks, the housing secretary has said.
Writing in the Mail on Sunday, Health Secretary Sajid Javid said there was a compelling argument that easing Covid restrictions was needed for the country's health.
We need to learn to live with Covid, he added, acknowledging that "cases are going to rise significantly".
Mr Javid said: "The economic arguments for opening up are well known, but for me, the health arguments are equally compelling.
"Rules that we have had to put in place have caused a shocking rise in domestic violence and a terrible impact on so many people's mental health," he added.
I look forward to the reversal in the cuts to mental health services in recent years, and for changes to the new benefits system so that women can more easily escape domestic violence. Javid is such a hypocrite.
I wouldn't hold your breath.
Mask use looks highly likely to become optional, next thing we'll be told not to isolate if we are infected and to continue to attend work as if we have the sniffles, Covid absenses from work will start counting towards attendance procedures etc.
next thing we’ll be told not to isolate if we are infected and to continue to attend work as if we have the sniffles
It'll be interesting to see how they deal with this one, i know several people whose workplace has had to close due to a lack of staff because of high amounts of self isolation and we aren't anywhere near the level of prevalence we will be in a month or two. That's fine when it's a pub or a corner shop but what happens when half the bus or train drivers in a region have to isolate or if significant numbers of staff in critical infrastructure roles have to be off work, the country will grind to a halt. We'll need to come up with some way around it like daily self testing instead of isolating.
will need immunity by infection will they not?
Being infected doesn't make you immune for long. Your body builds up antibodies. The number varies from person to person. Reports said they last up to 4 months. Plenty of people have had the same variant of Covid more than once.
Can’t help but think the only thing that might stop a full blown “Freedom Day” on the 19th is if Boris gets infected with Delta in the coming days.
Considering he’s had a bout of Covid, I doubt that.
Again, plenty of people have had covid more than once. Even the same strand of covid. Vaccine isn't 100% and the antibodies your body builds up don't last for long.
we aren’t anywhere near the level of prevalence we will be in a month or two
A political choice.
Presumably the politicians have a plan for the scenario they are bringing on. I mean, they wouldn’t just be winging it, against the advice of health professionals and scientists, would they?
The EU Digital Covid Certificate, which launched on Thursday, is designed to allow Covid-secure travel across the continent but does not recognise a version of the AstraZeneca vaccine called Covishield, produced by the Serum Institute of India (SII), because it is yet to receive approval in Europe.
Up to five million doses of this version of the vaccine have been administered in the UK and are identifiable by the vaccine batch numbers (4120Z001, 4120Z002, 4120Z003) included on recipients’ vaccine cards and in the Covid travel pass available via the NHS app.
From the guardian. The AZ vaccine batches manufactured in India won’t be recognised in the EU. Another brexit bonus. The regulation is clear here. MHRA can recognise and approve independently the Serum Institute site (one presumes that they have - inspections??). But the EMA have not. Hence if you’ve had those batches, you did not receive an EMA-approved covid vaccine. The same applies if you were in a clinical trial.
As luck would have it, if like me you were vaccinated around late March, that’s you and I. Probably won’t register on a site and I may not be travelling anyway.
This time last year we weren't having to wear masks and cases in the UK were under 1000 a day. We were regularly seeing "super spreader" events hit the media, but a cases surge didn't take off.
Since Monday we've had ~20,000 to 27,700 cases each day, while we are supposed to wear masks indoors unless we have food or drink in front us or cheering on England.
Christ knows how many daily cases we'll have by mid to late August if masks are ditched completely and we are still PCR testing... 100,000+? Some of those feeling bulletproof after their two vaccine shots are going to get a sharp dose of reality when they see double-jabbed friends/family/work colleagues are wearing Swiss cheese jackets.
Masks are pretty ineffective though so the real difference removing them will make should be small. As you can see how rapidly cases are rising while we are still wearing them it sort of begs the question why bother anyway?
We've now had a month and a half of rising cases while deaths have remained low enough that the resolution on the standard graphs can't show the small increase.
Patients on mechanical ventilation are a tenth of what they were at the winter peak as well.
From the guardian. The AZ vaccine batches manufactured in India won’t be recognised in the EU. Another brexit bonus. The regulation is clear here. MHRA can recognise and approve independently the Serum Institute site (one presumes that they have – inspections??). But the EMA have not. Hence if you’ve had those batches, you did not receive an EMA-approved covid vaccine. The same applies if you were in a clinical trial.
As luck would have it, if like me you were vaccinated around late March, that’s you and I. Probably won’t register on a site and I may not be travelling anyway.
As much as I am no fan of Brexit…a few things strike me about this:
1. The SII AZ vaccine is identical to EU manufactured AZ is it not?
2. This is a bureaucratic decision made solely by the EU.
3. With SII being identical why are the EU not granting approval?
As you can see how rapidly cases are rising while we are still wearing them it sort of begs the question why bother anyway?
Because there’s fast… and then there is faster. In this self imposed “race between vaccines and the virus”, giving the virus more of an advantage just so that those who find mask wearing hard to deal with can stop moaning about it seems an odd decision.
Patients on mechanical ventilation are a tenth of what they were at the winter peak as well.
You’ve just said that we’re no where near the peak of this wave though. That prevalence would be much higher in a month or two.
2. This is a bureaucratic decision made solely by the EU.
No it’s law. When we look at testing generic forms of biological products the studies normally test three arms for equivalence: the new generic, a US manufactured product and an EU manufactured product.
Here’s the Humira generic study. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27813422/
If a manufacturing site has not been approved, then the product does not exist. Would you like some vaccine I knocked up in my garage? Looks the same as the approved one. Or worse some fake vaccine (probably safer even though my garage is pretty tidy)? AZ ran into troubles with this in Belgium since their contract manufacturing organisation (CMO) was not approved on time and hence the delay in delivery to the EU.
It’s a very regulated field. Manufacturing even more than R&D
As you can see how rapidly cases are rising while we are still wearing them it sort of begs the question why bother anyway?
My wild guess is that quite a lot of the spread is happening in schools, with no masks, or people in pubs where people are being reckless/drunk with no masks,
Rules that
we have had to put in placeshould have been put in place, yet because of either blundering incompetence or cynical design were instead ‘rules’ that were repeatedly late, poorly-enforced, poorly-supported, confusingly implemented, and withdrawn too soon have caused a shocking rise in domestic violence and a terrible impact on so many people’s mental health,” headdedshould have admitted.
How easy it is to blame their failure on the very thing that they failed to do properly.
It’s not even bad workers blaming their tools. It’s like a dodgy gang of building repair contractors badly manufacturing their own tools, buying no tools, buying cheap shit tools, making their own rules, and changing them, and then lying about it, and then of course failing to fix the roof over 18 months all the while blaming ‘tools and blaming ‘roof-fixing rules’ for the house which is now in shocking repair and heading back to square one.
A percentage of house-owners will join the builders in blaming ‘tools and rules’ , but not blaming the building repairs contractors.
It’s a very regulated field. Manufacturing even more than R&D
Is the SII AZ the same as the EU AZ though? That’s the key point though isn’t it? It was, as I understand, made to the same tolerances. If it’s made to the same tolerances then it’s surely only a box ticking exercise to grant approval.
section 4 - the increase in cases in the UK is in all age groups, but is definitely higher in school age and young adult populations, and particulary 17-24 years olds.
Encouraging in the sense that they are unlikely to die of it, long covid may be an issue though. Discouraging because of the network they provide to disperse infection through the community - going home to parents, etc., and of course I don't think the virus is selective over which hosts it uses to trial mutations.
Patients on mechanical ventilation are a tenth of what they were at the winter peak as well.
Good. Let's keep it that way.
Being infected doesn’t make you immune for long. Your body builds up antibodies. The number varies from person to person. Reports said they last up to 4 months. Plenty of people have had the same variant of Covid more than once.
Does seem a wide range, from reports at least
But, promisingly, their levels remained fairly stable over time, declining only modestly at 6 to 8 months after infection.
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/lasting-immunity-found-after-recovery-covid-19
Although that’s pre delta,
Masks are pretty ineffective though so the real difference removing them will make should be small. As you can see how rapidly cases are rising while we are still wearing them it sort of begs the question why bother anyway?
Bullshine - they are very effective but not 100%. Reduce transmission by at least 70%
As you can see how rapidly cases are rising while we are still wearing them it sort of begs the question why bother anyway?
I’ve noticed a considerable decrease in mask-wearing of late. There is a growing trend to consider them a sign of the beast/totalitarian compliance and/or ineffective. And this trend was growing back in April.
Bullshine – they are very effective but not 100%. Reduce transmission by at least 70%
Got a link to any scientific paper that demonstrates that claim?
And this trend was growing back in April.
When numbers began to increase again.....?
Bullshine – they are very effective but not 100%. Reduce transmission by at least 70%
Got a link to any scientific paper that demonstrates that claim?
I'd be interested to see a source (or 2) for that.
As luck would have it, if like me you were vaccinated around late March, that’s you and I. Probably won’t register on a site and I may not be travelling anyway.
Apparently I had the 412Z003. Luckily I’m not planning on going anywhere near a foreign holiday for quite some time now anyway.
TJ can cite his own evidence for the 70% claim, but a quick google shows 'compelling' evidence
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776536
Compelling data now demonstrate that community mask wearing is an effective nonpharmacologic intervention to reduce the spread of this infection, especially as source control to prevent spread from infected persons, but also as protection to reduce wearers’ exposure to infection.
However, the rub is that the mask wearer is protecting others to a greater extent than themselves so the inconvenience and discomfort is somewhat altruistic. If we could say that it was personal choice, OK but choosing not to wear a mask once it becomes optional in my opinion displays a certain selfishness.
But OK, I'll live with that if they're the rules.
What i won't accept is that non-mask wearers become abusive to those that continue to express a choice to do (imho) the right thing. You may as well abuse someone for choosing to donate some of their salary to charity, or take part in volunteering.
Mask effectiveness info towards the end of this article - I'm not qualified to comment beyond "seems to help"
https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n432
You may as well abuse someone for choosing to donate some of their salary to charity, or take part in volunteering.
You mean… virtue signalling? Abusing people for altruist acts has already been normalised.
Vaxzevria for me. Europe here I come!
You mean… virtue signalling? Abusing people for altruist acts has already been normalised.
I think this is sarcasm, but, if you like. Abusing someone that an act that has no substantial negative impact on the bystander and may (probably does) benefit them as part of wider society. Just don't get why, other than generally being a nasty human being.
But we must respect their choice not to wear a mask (once it is no longer a requirement), otherwise we descend to their level.
I've said before - my 17yo works at a supermarket (for posh people in a nice Surrey town) and has not been shy to challenge non-mask wearers while the supermarket has a policy. But her managers have now said that they will no longer challenge, just ask - 'please can you wear a mask - we have some inside if you need one' but refusers are already becoming quite aggressive so they should not go beyond that. Usually late middle-aged, well to do demographic in her non-scientific data gather; the young are still largely complying.
Vaxzevria for me. Europe here I come!
You need to check the batch number.
Mine says Vaxzevria but is in the 4120Z001 batch - the first jab anyway.
Some of our MPs are amazing. One, that you would have undoubtedly already have heard of unfortunately for you, thinks that doctors want mask wearing to continue for a bit longer because they are in the pockets of PPE manufacturers… conveniently glossing over that it is his government that has used PPE procurement to enrich contacts…
https://zelo-street.blogspot.com/2021/07/stupid-tory-mp-is-predictably-stupid.html