Global cases now close to 31 million; global deaths close to 1 million.
There appears to be a major disconnect between the high number of cases in India and the relatively low number of deaths; I don't believe that's the only country with such a disconnect so it's probable the death count is understated.
I'm not sure why everyone is so pessimistic about the vacine. Science has come along way since we tried to crack polio..I reckon they'll have one that works by early next year.
Getting enough of it to everyone is another matter altogether however. Rules mean that no country gets more than enough for 20% of the population until all the other countries have had their 20%. So basically nhs first, old and vulnerable next. Everyone else will be waiting.
Which is fine to a point, but given it seems to be a virus that may not kill healthy folks, but can do lasting permanent damage, it's unlikely the danger of this will go away any time soon
I’m not sure why everyone is so pessimistic about the vacine. Science has come along way since we tried to crack polio..I reckon they’ll have one that works by early next year.
I agree that science continues to develop but there is no reason to believe that a CV19 vaccine will be developed anytime soon.
Even if a (possible) vaccine was developed, look at the timescales for stringent testing and approval protocols.
Two years, at best. Then factor in the logistical considerations you refer to; on top of that, how do we scale up production to provide national/international/global coverage?
What about patents on the first proven and safe vaccine?
Global health before profit? Only one winner there - and it isn't global health.
I would suggest it's best to assume there won't be a vaccine and modify your life/behaviour accordingly.
That is being nothing other than realistic.
Everyone will either get it, or a proxy for infection in the form of vaccination or passive protection. Treatments are coming. Lilly proved last week that antibodies can do something, albeit at some heroic doses. But early days. Vaccine efficacy studies are due to report in October/November. I hope they work.
Mid 2021 is the delivery date for some of the biggest players. Perhaps earlier.
Vaccine efficacy studies are due to report in October/November. I hope they work.
So do I.
joepud
Full MemberI think this is pretty key. Lockdown fatigue is a real thing people can’t be expect to follow such extreme rules all the time without it having serious implications on mental health.
OK but, we have never faced "extreme rules" in the UK. We've never had a lockdown at all, really. We've had moderate restrictions, which some people have treated like the end of the world- but then, some people think being asked to wear a mask is the end of the world.
Lockdown fatigure is definitely a real thing but don't confuse it with Government Fatigue, the number one factor in compliance and noncompliance by a long way is the government that's running it. And ours has been incredibly awful. Arguably the worst, in those nations that have actually decided to handle it- not as bad as Brazil or the US but that's a whole different issue. If you wanted to deter people from following the rules, westminster's approach has been flawless.
ElShalimo
Free MemberMost people breaking lockdown don’t have £1000, they’re looking for their next fags, weed & booze whilst wandering the streets
Your explanation of why people break lockdown is bollocks imo but your point is sound. Fines don't deter people who have money, and people who don't have money might have no choice- what happens when you get pinged by the track and trace app but furlough is over and the eviction ban is over and you've got bills to pay? You go to work, and risk a fine, which you can't afford. It's near-perfect feudal capitalism.
I agree that science continues to develop but there is no reason to believe that a CV19 vaccine will be developed anytime soon.
Even if a (possible) vaccine was developed, look at the timescales for stringent testing and approval protocols.
Two years, at best. Then factor in the logistical considerations you refer to; on top of that, how do we scale up production to provide national/international/global coverage?
What about patents on the first proven and safe vaccine?
I understand your pessimism Frank
Two to three years for a phase 3 vaccine is about right - under normal circumstances. Almost a year of that is start-up, a 6 months to a year to find the patients (recruitment), and then a year for the last of those patients to run through the trial, and then process the results. Very roughly speaking of course. My day job is running large commercial clinical trials, typically oncology - but I've done a few flu vaccine studies in my time too. Delays in clinical trials are largely due to competing priorities, workload, unnecessary bureaucracy (genuinely unnecessary - you wouldn't believe the delays I've seen for absolutely no reason) etc. Every so often you get a "unicorn" trial where you have none of those, and things happen very quickly.
The study has already started, there will be absolutely no problem recruiting patients, and usually the "topline" results are available within days of the last patient completing the last study examination. From there its a case of submitting the data to the regulators to approval.
There will be no delay in approval - this is such a huge global priority that review for the data will be done as soon as its available - which I am reading will be Q1 2020. Production will ramp-up in parallel - people will start receiving the vaccine the day it's approved. Erm......as long as Boris actually puts somebody competent in charge.
Here in Australia, the government have already bought the rights to manufacture 85 million doses of 2 vaccines domestically (including the Oxford vaccine). And are projecting that it will start distribution in Q1.
The availability of a vaccine in Q1 2020 is entirely possible. Yes, it will be a stretch - this is the best case scenario for sure, and there are plenty things that can go wrong - but I'm feeling quite optimistic.
Your explanation of why people break lockdown is bollocks imo but your point is sound. Fines don’t deter people who have money, and people who don’t have money might have no choice- what happens when you get pinged by the track and trace app but furlough is over and the eviction ban is over and you’ve got bills to pay? You go to work, and risk a fine, which you can’t afford. It’s near-perfect feudal capitalism.
Don't disagree but you offer no solution; I'm not suggesting there is a solution.
I will continue to assume our 'leaders' are incompetent and exist in a solution-free zone; will, therefore, continue to behave accordingly - can spell out if necessary but...you know what I'm saying.
I’m not suggesting we have armed squaddies on the streets in tanks.
We had the army involved in Sydney. I posted it on another thread I think.
They were using Army personnel to call on people at home who were supposed to be self-isolating, to check that they were. They also used the army to help run the quarantine logistics for returning travelers (all returning travelers are quarantined for 2 weeks. Not "self-isolation" - actual quarantine).
There was no hysteria about the use of the Army. I think it was a good idea to use them for this task in particular - as it didn't result in any kind of potential for confrontation, they weren;t wrestling with youths in the parks - people were either at home, or not. No reason they couldn't do this in the UK.
frankconway
Full MemberDon’t disagree but you offer no solution; I’m not suggesting there is a solution.
Well, in fact I did- and we've already seen it. Eviction bans and something like furlough. People need to be protected for doing the right thing, not incentivised to do the wrong thing. That works two ways, partly the obvious one of just letting people get on with it, and the slightly less obvious one of showing intent and making doing the right thing feel like the natural, easy option rather than the self-sacrificing option.
I totally agree our government is incompetent, and I also think they're just ideologically unsuited to some of the things that are needed; I think they're deeply content with people living with no safety net and with the extremes that you can push people to if they're living one week from homelessness. And IMO it's totally clear that they're terrified of using some of the tools that will work, such as welfare and printing money, not because they're not a good idea but because they are.
But equally, I think they'd like to be able to leave the house without risking getting a deadly infection, so, maybe even the biggest shitehawks can be convinced to help others in order to help themselves. This government, competence aside, is in a quandry of their own making where they fundamentally don't want to help people, and fundamentally need to.
Northwind nails it.
So we get a press conference with the doomsters and gloomsters this afternoon (Whitty/Vallance), who will unequivocally lay out the evidence for further national restrictions, and my impression of the interview with Shapps this morning is that Boris is waiting to follow this up with a national address tonight or tomorrow at 8.
Of course, predictions of political courage from this government come with their own health warning. I suppose we may get 'you really must behave' from all quarters and then we can head down the pub as usual.
The "it's here to stay" argument is on the BBC today - I think most people have understood for a while that the virus wasn't just going to go away and it was about minimising the damage, both direct and indirect.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54228649
Also agree with Northwind that the government don't have the courage and political will to do "the right thing" to deal with the mess that their previous incompetence has left us with.
So what form do people think any extra measures be? Pub closures? What are the main transmission route at the moment. IF the media reports are correct its drinking pubs, rugby trips but it this just the routes that make good headlines so people can tut or is this actually the major transmission routes?
Latest I read was that air-born transmission was more significant than initially though and less so surface. Intuitively this would imply crowded social situation such as pub and indoor parties and other events but when I have been in town centres it looks pretty busy too.
Northwind
Full Member
OK but, we have never faced “extreme rules” in the UK. We’ve never had a lockdown at all, really. We’ve had moderate restrictions, which some people have treated like the end of the world- but then, some people think being asked to wear a mask is the end of the world.
Spot on I have to clench my teeth when people talk about "Lock down" in the UK
I have a friend who is living in Sri-Lanka, there's was a proper lock down a couple of hours a week where you were only allowed to go shopping based on your postcode and constant checks by the police.
What are the main transmission route at the moment.
Schools, most likely. But we want them to stay open in some form, so everything else must go. The government claims that household mixing is the worst offender, so that will be next. I'm not entirely convinced, I reckon their faulty track and trace is skewing the stats because contacts are easier to follow up because you know who's been in your house rather than who was on the next table at the pub.
Ideally, IMO we should shut pretty much everything but the essentials to keep schools (and workplaces) open at this point.
The trend in hospital admissions, which is a more reliable indicator of the state of the pandemic, is not encouraging. Estimated doubling times mean we could be back approaching April levels by mid-October. I think we certainly have to act fast to stop ourselves diverging from TiReD's forecast .
Schools, most likely. But we want them to stay open
We are going to need more teachers, or we are going to have to have social distancing in schools, which will mean a dramatic reduction in pupils in school.
Spot on I have to clench my teeth when people talk about “Lock down” in the UK
I have a friend who is living in Sri-Lanka, there’s was a proper lock down a couple of hours a week where you were only allowed to go shopping based on your postcode and constant checks by the police.
This seems like an absolutest argument. Is there significant evidence that this higher level of lockdown has significant improvement in reducing transmission in a society with similar demographic, population densities and distributions? Jus because it more of something that works doesn't mean it better. It maybe but the lock down that the UK undertook had big effect on transmission.
We are going to need more teachers, or we are going to have to have social distancing in schools, which will mean a dramatic reduction in pupils in school.
That's the 'in some form' I was alluding to. I'm not sure full school attendance is sustainable even with all the other restrictions.
Most people breaking lockdown don’t have £1000, they’re looking for their next fags, weed & booze whilst wandering the streets
Such classism because its not the hundreds of thousands of people hanging out in their homes mixing families, going to dinner and all that general summer socialising that happens. Its just the people with addictions. God Singletrack is such a narrow minded place at times this has to be one of the moronic statements I have read on Singletrack.
As for all the people talking about a "proper lockdown" im assuming right now you are all working from home, going to the shops once a week and only exercising from your house, and not socialising with anyone outside of your household? After all you are good citizens and would NEVER do anything that would potentially further the spread of the virus. I hope you're all still riding solo too.
Ideally, IMO we should shut pretty much everything but the essentials to keep schools (and workplaces) open at this point.
How many workplaces will actually be open. Aside from us computery types who are now working from home anyway, most workplaces require customers physically present.
Which does bring us back to "socialise, as long as you are spending money"
What are the main transmission route at the moment.
Schools, most likely.
Any data from Scotland on this - they've had longer open that us down here. I wish the bloody government would publish details as to what the data suggests the transmission routes are, but I guess that may be relying on track and trace being accurate and working.
Agree our "lockdown" was not as severe as many around the world, and didn't really justify the term. Even in places like Spain and France which had much stricter rules, the second wave is building a head of steam, maybe stricter initial lockdown led to greater "partying" after.
As for all the people talking about a “proper lockdown” im assuming right now you are all working from home, going to the shops once a week and only exercising from your house, and not socialising with anyone outside of your household? After all you are good citizens and would NEVER do anything that would potentially further the spread of the virus. I hope you’re all still riding solo too.
Pretty much, yep. Especially now the kids are back at school increasing the chances of us actually catching it and passing it on. And I'm thoroughly pissed off with it all after 6 months.
Any data from Scotland on this – they’ve had longer open that us down here.
No evidence on it, I may be wrong! The way I see children and parents interacting round my way makes it hard to believe that it isn't a candidate, though.
No need to shut everything down this time surely? A lot of shops are now much better for protection etc, hairdressers and stuff like that follow guidelines, cafes can do takeaways. The big issue is the hospitality industry and the mixing of social groups. That is likely what will take the brunt again I think.
The big issue is the hospitality industry and the mixing of social groups. That is likely what will take the brunt again I think.
I do hope so. Everything adds a bit of transmission risk even with mitigation - some of those areas you've mentioned are likely to be tiny. The question is how much activity we need to remove to balance the great wodge of risk from school mixing.
Pretty much, yep
pretty much isnt good enough im sorry. Go straight to jail do no pass go do not collect your £200. Im assuming you will be signing up for the covid marshall job even if its unpaid... but that does mean leaving your house such a conundrum. On a more serious note are you hand on heart telling me in 6+ months you haven't seen a single person from outside your household socially, been to the pub, gone to dinner, seen your parents/in-laws, or anything like that? All you have done is ride on your own from your house and go to the super market once or twice a week? That seems way too extreme for me the mental health implications would be huge. I would be in a corner rocking in a deep depression right now.
No need to shut everything down this time surely?
If you ask the singletrack police thats exactly what we should do. Its easy to say shut everything but then you are face with the reality of supporting those that can't work from home ie non essential factory work, and the entire hospitality industry.
RE: Vaccine.
I don't know how anyone can say it's "gone quiet" there's not a day it's not in the news.
There are currently around 7 viable vaccines in final stages of human testing. The Oxford Vaccine is thought to be one of the front runners. Despite a short delay when a single subject fell ill, which was proven to be unrelated to the vaccine.
The scale of the testing is huge, and generally under reported in the media. In addition to studies in the UK and Brazil, there are also large scale studies taking place in the US, Japan, South Africa and Russia with Peru and Chile starting soon.
There is no longer a question around whether it works or not, it does. It provokes a immune response, we're 'only' testing now to be as sure as we can it won't a) make people sick b) actually give people Covid. Vaccines are generally very safe anyway.
The thinking at the moment is that when Phase 3 is complete in the UK and Brazil, which will be soon the UK Gov. will use Emergency powers to allow it's use Unlicensed. Unlicensed drugs are used all the time in the UK in certain circumstances, it will still go for approval, but rather than wait months for that to be completed, it will be given a very quick review and used.
My Wife, who is a community based Specialist nurse has been put on warning that she (and most of her colleagues) will be joining the mass vaccination team, probably by the end of the year. The team currently working on antibody testing will be leading it, they've already selected our local site, satellite sites, processes and procedures etc. It will be pretty much the same process of Flu vaccines that they do every year at this time, it will be more widespread, but as you can imagine the mountains have moved to make it happen.
However... here's the problem, if every lab in the world that could make the vaccine all started to make it at full capacity, it will take 4 years to make enough to vaccinate the global population. Also, the rules regarding it, say that once you've vaccinated 20% of your population, you have to make it available to the rest of the world, including the developing world.
My theory is this:
That's not terrible news, whilst the media and Gov sort of give the impression that it's a bit of a lottery with covid if you get ill, get really ill, get ill enough to end up in Hospital or die, it's not entirely. They know the high risk people (Old, Sick, unhealthy) 20% of the population is enough to protect all the Healthcare Workers, high risk occupations (inc Teachers I believe) and people in high risk categories. Once that's been completed the rest of us will have to take our chances, Hospitals have increased their capacity and we're better at treating it now. Some people who are in the low risk cat, who are young fit and healthy will get sick, some might end up in hospital, some may even die, but that is the unfortunate position we find ourselves in, and if we can't convince people to stay at home now, there's no way we'll manage it in 6, 12, 24 months, so we'll have to accept that.
I thought we were already making millions of doses of Oxford vaccine to be ready when approved?
Had a bit of a Social Media spat with a MTB 'Influencer' and 'Brand Ambassador' at the weekend.
She seemed to think it was a great idea to publicise her long trip to the Alps (lucky sod) and then, maybe it was because she was bored / needed to put something out, a couple of trips to Afan and moaning about how she was finding it hard to regulate her body temp. In other words "Hey, I had a great trip to France, now a few days later I'm riding around Afan with the start of a fever - poor me".
It really got under my skin, it was so blatant, so I asked her "Shouldn't you be isolating?" She took this to mean (or at least wanted to) asking whether she was in a local lockdown area. but it became like a scab I couldn't stop picking "weren't you in France last week?" but she brushed it off, oh no, she had loads of pics to upload she'd been back longer than the quarantine period. She'd be posting away on Strava, Insta and wherever else - she's travelled back from Morzine, via lord knows which port / airport, and then promptly spend the next 10 days happily enjoying the sunshine riding around Afan and surrounding areas and now, here she is 10 days later with all the classic signs of an oncoming fever.
I happened to be at Afan the same day she was, but on the other side of the valley. The carpark was PACKED with people with accents from all over the UK.
She deleted my comments and anyone else who mentioned Covid, so I guess that's it then.
I thought we were already making millions of doses of Oxford vaccine to be ready when approved?
Possibly, it's not something I've heard, would seem a bit presumptive, but if they all end up in landfill it wouldn't be the most wasteful covid spend, not even close. it's a 2 dose vaccine, we'd need 132m doses for the UK and 15 billion does for the world.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54228649
Anyone got any views on the approaches described in this article?
I've been in favour of this kind of approach since the beginning and I'm hoping some common sense will prevail at some point soon and we collectively start to decide that we cant hide from this for ever.
However… here’s the problem, if every lab in the world that could make the vaccine all started to make it at full capacity, it will take 4 years to make enough to vaccinate the global population. Also, the rules regarding it, say that once you’ve vaccinated 20% of your population, you have to make it available to the rest of the world, including the developing world.
Where's this rule and how enforceable is it? The UK has already signed contracts for enough doses for 5 per capita in the UK.
I can't say much but even the small manufacturing site I'm working at is capable of making 17 million doses in 2021. Manufacturing vaccines is less time consuming than you might think with large single use bioreactors.
The evidence from Australia (who have a functioning track and trace system, and are actually using it) is that schools are not significant routes of infection. Most of our clusters are pubs, restaurants and working-men’s clubs (the Australian equivalent of, which are very popular), and household transmission.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54228649Anyone got any views on the approaches described in this article?
I’ve been in favour of this kind of approach since the beginning and I’m hoping some common sense will prevail at some point soon and we collectively start to decide that we cant hide from this for ever.
I think this is effectively what will happen, but only once we've vaccinated the people who have 'Covid Death' written all over them, if you know what I mean.
As per the link, between Nov and April around 50k more people will die than at any other time, mostly in care homes. It's not the cold that kills them, Care homes are like a furnace year round, it's because colds, flus and other illnesses are making their way around the population. This winter will be worse, probably much worse. This years' seasonal Cold will be Covid19. It is, after all a coronavirus, which a lot of 'colds' are.
If we think back to Spring, when Johnson gave that speech, no one, from either side of the house, from any dept of Gov, the NHS or anywhere else said we can eradicate it, even with the whole globe pulling together as one (as we pretty much are now) we can't, and frankly even if we did, it might just mutate into Covid21, maybe Covid20 is already out there, in the community waiting to laugh at our vaccine efforts.
That's not to say that lockdown was a bad idea and we should have just let it "run it's course". We'd have lost at least 250k people, possible far more, NHS would have been completely overwhelmed. The plan was only ever to slow the infection to allow the NHS to get ready. I'm pretty sure all the restriction lifting that happened over the summer was to allow it to get though a lot more people when it was easier to manage, but one the vaccine is deployed, the rest of us will have to take our turn.
Anyone got any views on the approaches described in this article?
Living with it is OK whist it is someone else's father who is affected. The fact is, we have managed by contact restriction alone to reduce the first epidemic wave of a completely new human pathogen to "only" a bad influenza year. Influenza is managed by vaccination and treatment (for the most serious cases). We have neither of those for SARS-COV2 (yet). We have relaxed contacts since the summer which has increased transmission, which leads to an increase in hospital admissions, which (inevitably) then leads to an increase in deaths.
It is society's choice as to what is an acceptable level of morbidity (which we have yet to really understand) and mortality (which we now have a grip on). But at the moment it is hedging on the side of caution. I have a lot of time for Mark Woolhouse and have known him for years. I have little time for Carl Heneghan - who aside from quite rightly questioning death statistics, has done little of value but throw stones from the sidelines.
Any bets on what this news conference is going to be about? Interesting that its the medical/science bods with nobody political present
Are we all going to get a telling off? I reckon we are. Hence nobody present who stood up and vigorously defended the Barnard Castle Eye Test, to make it look openly ridiculous
It is society’s choice as to what is an acceptable level of morbidity (which we have yet to really understand) and mortality (
This is true, but we need the nhs to be able to cope with it AND do all its normal roles, so "living with it" doesnt mean what I suspect many want it to mean.
On a more serious note are you hand on heart telling me in 6+ months you haven’t seen a single person from outside your household socially, been to the pub, gone to dinner, seen your parents/in-laws, or anything like that? All you have done is ride on your own from your house and go to the super market once or twice a week?
I've tried to pretty much stick to the rules. Had a couple of socially distanced meet ups with 4 mates, but knocked those on the head when alcohol meant that a couple of them lost track of distancing. Not been to the pub. Eaten out a couple of times, but only in places with proper track and trace and full social distancing measures in. Ridden with one mate a few times, but only as we know we are both being strict about everything else. Have seen my parents once a fortnight, because they are either side of 80 and need help with shopping and jobs around the house and garden.
Not claiming to be perfect or a saint, but my parents need protecting, my kids need to be in school so I'm prepared to sacrifice pretty much everything else. I'm also over 50, male and overweight (though not as much now) so at some small increased risk myself. I also suffer with anxiety and depression, but that doesn't mean I want to go and run wild and take additional risks to make myself feel slightly better for a day or two.
From beeb
UK government advisers are to warn the country is "heading in the wrong direction" at a briefing shortly
Been doing that for years!!
Where’s this rule and how enforceable is it? The UK has already signed contracts for enough doses for 5 per capita in the UK.
I can’t say much but even the small manufacturing site I’m working at is capable of making 17 million doses in 2021. Manufacturing vaccines is less time consuming than you might think with large single use bioreactors.
The UK, along with 80 or so other developed nations have signed up to COVAX, we, amazingly have invested more than any other country (the US, however has been very quiet on it, but they're a insular country at the best of time, even without a Red / Trump in the White House). It says that not only will we pay for our own vaccines, some of that money will go towards vaccines for poorer countries. It also states there should be an equitable distribution of vaccines. So even though we've ordered multiples of what we need, that doesn't mean we will vaccinate the whole country and then think about the rest of the world. As above, we will vaccinate those who are working in Healthcare etc, then our vulnerable and then it will go global.
Given how SARS and other pandemics worked out, by the time we were able to vaccinate everyone in the UK, we will have reached herd immunity or it will have mutated into a less lethal virus. If not, it will take around 4 years to vaccinate the global population, but there's a chance it will evolve to outpace the vaccine.
Obviously the idea of giving vaccines the UK has paid for to countries with people who have dark skin, or perhaps follow faiths we don't trust or the like won't exactly go down well with, some people, certainly the voter base of our PM, it doesn't matter how much information you can give them that it's the safest thing to do for the people of the UK and the best thing to do economically.
That said, if the US reelects Trump, or even if they don't - it will be politically difficult for them to follow it, it's just not compatible with US thinking, even left of centre Democrat thinking, if they denounce it, the rest of the world may follow suit.
On a more serious note are you hand on heart telling me in 6+ months you haven’t seen a single person from outside your household socially, been to the pub, gone to dinner, seen your parents/in-laws, or anything like that?
I can honestly say that I have not broken a single rule, other than not having a mask in one shop. I saw my Stepfather only when it was legal to do so. the same for my sister and her family. She has four children, which now makes visiting her impossible. My Stepfather can still see the family as he is alone. I have not seen my other sister's family this year. I have only sat in the garden of my in-laws (who are both shielding).
Anyone know how a pub or restaurant gets dealt with if a staff member tests positive?
Mates girlfriend works in a local restaurant and has been confirmed as having covid, as has another staff member. My mates girlfriend has informed the owners, track and trace etc self isolating.
However the restaurant is remaining open. I've seen other places close and post on social media that they were working with track and trace and would reopen asap. Not sure why this place is remaining open with 2 positive staff members who would have dealt with many customers.
Any bets on what this news conference is going to be about? Interesting that its the medical/science bods with nobody political present
Still think they are setting up the PM's 'address to the nation' for later on. If there is a politician at the presser, they will be asked the question, and have to find a way not to answer it.
Still think they are setting up the PM’s ‘address to the nation’ for later on this week.
Definitely.
