And what is happening is, according to the BBC graph, hospital admissions have risen to 227 compared to an April peak of 3000. With doubling every 7-8 days, if we continue unchanged then in about a month we will have seen 4 doublings. 4*2*227= 3632. So we need to act now if we are to avoid that and hard lockdown again.
Btw, what's been happening in the States and is there anything to learn? Didn't they open up faster than us and sort of let things rip?
Genius. How to dampen down demand for the testing you have failed to deliver… new fines, up to £10,000 for risking spreading the virus to others, if you’ve taken a test. So… if you think you have it, and you consider yourself to be at low risk of being effected by it seriously yourself… don’t get a test, and don’t risk the large fines.
Yup, and you know that their obsession with behavioural nudging means that this is the calculated aim or at best, a perfectly acceptable outcome.
TiRed wrote this earlier:
Excess mortality of up to 30000 deaths (half the first wave) should be anticipated
And going back to the national archives for past years:
An estimated 43,900 excess winter deaths occurred in England and Wales in 2014/15; the highest number since 1999/00, with 27% more people dying in the winter months compared with the non-winter months.
i.e. this coming winter will be back to normal, and quite a lot better than 1999, when we did nothing at all.
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/resources/figure5_tcm77-425290.pn g" alt="" />
URL not working for me, but it looks like you’re comparing the winter excess mortality* for a single year with an estimate for excess deaths** this winter above the average expected for the time of year. Apples and oranges.
Short version… no, TiRed is not estimating that this winter will be normal.
[ * compares summer and winter mortality rates ]
[ ** estimate of number of deaths this winter beyond what has would be expected when looking at past winters ]
Edit: you’ve added a graph… thanks… we don’t want another winter like 1999, looking at that… it didn’t look “normal”.
My estimate (It’s a guess really) is 30k deaths above a typical influenza year. I’ve also simulated projections for different relaxations of contacts. The conclusions are Covid deaths of up to 80k, with a typical value of about 40k. The 2014 epidemic is included in my (but not ONS) reference range for weekly deaths.
Now the bit The media ignore; uncertainty is so high that precision is impossible. Preparation is therefore vital for a reasonable worst case.
Compared to March, we have some flying instrumentation now, but prediction beyond six weeks is still largely a futile exercise.
i.e. this coming winter will be back to normal, and quite a lot better than 1999, when we did nothing at all.
Already said, but not what he's said. And 1999/2000 was a really bad flu year, through Christmas and New Year especially.
What were the excess deaths for 1999/00 and 2014/15 ?
And what was the cause of the spike in 1999/00, and was it followed by a "second wave", or just a return to the average?
From your graph… flu rates were high [ Influenza Like Illness incidence ] in 1999, so strongly assume that was the problem that winter… but 2014 looks like something else… remember why we have winter fuel payments?
thanks… we don’t want another winter like 1999,
First wave of the milenium bug
oldnpastit, don’t go down the route of assuming this virus is just like flu… most of the mistakes made early this year by people who should be far more knowledgable than you are or I were based on using that single wrong assumption when planning for what was coming our way.
So, we’re (still) in the dark.
I think you just have to read the signs. The "leaked" idea that the government were considering a national lockdown is really them 'testing' the idea with the public and press and warming the plebs up to the idea.
My guess is they'll carry on with the mixed messaging, telling public sector workers they should be back in the office and prop up Costa, that pubs are safe spaces and you can get a test any time you need it, that increased infections are the fault of under 30s but don't matter so long as they don't hug their Nan.
They'll hold off calling a lockdown until they believe we're right on the cusp and then Boris will hit us with another ill timed, bumbling, Friday evening announcement I reckon, they might try to leave it as late as 02/10/20.
They'd probably prefer to go longer to try and get it to coincidence with already booked half-term leave...
Now sit back and watch all my predictions miss spectacularly...
Now sit back and watch all my predictions miss spectacularly…
Those are the rules of the game I’m afraid. At every point I always ask “how wrong could I be?”. My above predictions are what I consider reasonable. The worst case scenario is probably twice as bad. It’s very easy to take an exponentially bad prediction and let the media run with it. There is a reason I don’t do that side of communication.
Whats thought to be the current death rate? Reason I ask is I just looked up West Berkshire cases, 558 diagnosed so far and 133 deaths, I'm guessing "a few" undiagnosed cases are about, obviously I'd like to know the number of cases since mass testing started, but you know numbers and journalists!!
Remember, it’s important that “the public” stay put if they suspect they have the virus… “the public”…
https://twitter.com/jimmfelton/status/1307422861485912067?s=21
Never forget…
https://twitter.com/jonlis1/status/1265402689330057216?s=21
Luckily the grown-ups are here to take over the Corona/Brexit crises.
Death rate remains unknown. But the ratio of admission rate to death rate is about 10%. It was higher (worse). Ratio of cases to admissions is the problem!
There is a very large age dependence to mortality. Less than 45 and the rate is roughly nil. Above 85 and it’s 25%. Mortality doubles every 10 years from age 45.
At the epidemic peak, all-cause mortality was double normal background rate for every age group above 45. The absolute rate is still pretty low for male, slightly overweight, middle age cyclists - about 20 per 100k/week against a normal background of 10 per 100k/week.
You are unlikely to die of covid, but likely to hear of someone who has from an acquaintance.
Fair enough if we have to have another lockdown, I'm fine with that (maybe shouldn't have needed to come to that, but TiRed and others have suggested all along it was likely).
How will it be enforced more effectively this time? Proper hard and fast rules on exercise duration and distance? Adequate resourcing to police it? Personally, I have no problem with teaming up a copper with members of the armed forces and give them the power to arrest and hold someone while the copper does his job, I know others will start worrying about martial law and military rule, that's fine to have a different opinion to mine.
The media not continually showing footage of vox pops interviews with people clearly not social distancing as though it's acceptable. Online forums not full of people looking for some wriggle room, or concentrating on making a political point about the flaws in the rules as though every other piece of legislation by every other government has been perfect?
Think we need new 4 word slogans to make the message clearer - Don't Be A Dick, and Don't Take The Piss.
Well, my lass has woken up with a temperature and cold symptoms, and while it's unlikely to be Covid (snotty), into self-isolation we all go. Shame - nice weather outside for riding.
After berating the lack of testing locally, got one booked in the next town this afternoon!
The absolute rate is still pretty low for male, slightly overweight, middle age cyclists – about 20 per 100k/week against a normal background of 10 per 100k/week.
You are unlikely to die of covid
You sayin I'm fat!!!!
The Good Law project have now initiated action for the gov to disclose details of proposed Operation Moonshot.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/sep/18/government-faces-legal-action-over-moonshot-covid-testing-project
Here's their Letter before Action which requests a response by 4pm on Tuesday 22nd September.
How about an update from Open Democracy; some of the content was already known but there is now information about a previously unknown CV19 contract for Serco.
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/serco-lands-another-45m-for-failing-covid-test-and-trace-scheme/?utm_source=rss&utm_campaign=edpicks&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Editorpicksrss&utm_campaign=RSS
Finally, has anyone else seen this?
https://twitter.com/Against_3G/status/1306973806142074884?s=20
Personally, I have no problem with teaming up a copper with members of the armed forces and give them the power to arrest and hold someone while the copper does his job, I know others will start worrying about martial law and military rule, that’s fine to have a different opinion to mine.
wow, a bit of an over reaction to a few people sitting in a park in a group bigger than 6. A few people may start worrying about martial law because that easy what it sounds like. Just for a second imagine how that would go down. You already have groups of the public who are disproportionately targeted by the police (and fined during covid) so what you are suggested is we let the army follow them around too.... because thats gonna end well.
@joepud - I was talking about enforcing another proper lockdown.
I'm open to your alternative suggestions as to how the resources can be found to make a better job of it next time. Covid Marshall's maybe?
Covid Marshalls? What a good idea...
My current contract is up soon. Maybe I'll be Covid Marshall next - will there be a uniform?
Don’t Be A Dick, Don’t Be A Dom, and Don’t Take The Piss.
Don’t Be A Dick, Don’t Be A Dom, and Don’t Take The Piss.
I like it!
@joepud – I was talking about enforcing another proper lockdown.
I’m open to your alternative suggestions as to how the resources can be found to make a better job of it next time. Covid Marshall’s maybe?
I don't have an alternative but I don't need one to know putting the army on the streets to "hold someone while the copper does his job" is a bad idea. Just what job are the police doing taking people home, arresting them... giving then a kicking. I mean lets just give the police guns after all we need to enforce a "proper lockdown." A nation wide lockdown is so bad for peoples mental health lets just think about that for a minute.
We have policing by consent in the UK. Generally people buy into the authority of the law and follow it. It's something the over privileged idiots we have in charge do buy into and so don't get at all.
To get people to comply requires leadership - explain why it's needed, provided the tools through test and track, payments for those that need to self isolate and a clear strategy - that's what most of us want and will willingly comply with.
How will it be enforced more effectively this time? Proper hard and fast rules on exercise duration and distance? Adequate resourcing to police it? Personally, I have no problem with teaming up a copper with members of the armed forces and give them the power to arrest and hold someone while the copper does his job, I know others will start worrying about martial law and military rule, that’s fine to have a different opinion to mine.
I get the frustration with some of the poor compliance with lockdown / social distancing rules but jeez that all sounds a bit mad. Getting compliance with any law requires it to have a high degree of general support (this would have **** all general support). If you try to enforce something that doesn't have general support and is inherently difficult to police it'll all go to ruin. You'd also run the risk of reducing compliance as the more outlawed you made stuff the cooler it'd be to try an get the round the rules.
I think during the first lockdown the degree of compliance and behaviour change was frankly amazing. It's the middle period where it's dragged on and things have slipped for a lot of people. With a bit of effort and nudging in the right direction I'm sure we could do a lot to get it under control without wrecking the country and unleashing the Stasi to crush folk straying too far on a bike ride.
Tomd... I agree. I also think that sections of the media are prodding people's fears with exaggerated covidiot stories. Actually playing both sides and simultaneously pandering to the conspiracy theorists.
But my experience is still one of high compliance with the (increasingly confused) rules and general good will.
Maybe I have too much of a positive view of humanity generally...
It’s the middle period where it’s dragged on and things have slipped for a lot of people. With a bit of effort and nudging in the right direction I’m sure we could do a lot to get it under control without wrecking the country and unleashing the Stasi to crush folk straying too far on a bike ride.
I think this is pretty key. Lockdown fatigue is a real thing people can't be expect to follow such extreme rules all the time without it having serious implications on mental health. Slips are always going to happen and people will take risks they feel are acceptable, for example even at the height of lockdown I was still doing 40/50 mile rides from my house roads were dead, interacted with no one touched nothing I didn't own myself apart from the odd gate on a fire road/bridal way.
The only real way to get the R number down and get this thing gone is all stay inside until we have a vaccine but that isn't practical unless the gov' want to invest some seriously socialist measures. We need to learn to live with this thing its gonna be around for a long time.
Just what job are the police doing taking people home, arresting them… giving then a kicking. I mean lets just give the police guns after all we need to enforce a “proper lockdown.”
You took a bit of a leap there fella.
I agree lockdown compliance was good last time and it did its job. But this next time? How do we get it to the same levels? I'm not suggesting we have armed squaddies on the streets in tanks.
I'm well aware of the risks and flaws in my suggestion, I'm waiting for an alternative suggestion for enforcing a future lockdown given the lack of leadership/example at the top and the lockdown fatigue - yes, and mental health issues, which I have some experience of myself, when we need to make it happen again
We need to learn to live with this thing its gonna be around for a long time.
Close to what my wife, a nurse, said this week. Except she said it’s here for good and reckons almost everyone will get it eventually.
I’m well aware of the risks and flaws in my suggestion, I’m waiting for an alternative suggestion
well dude, i don't have one i just know putting army on the street isnt a good idea. Historically when have that ever ended well. If we had decent social services and the gov' could provide for people who have to isolate and not work maybe more people would be willing to stay at home.
Close to what my wife, a nurse, said this week. Except she said it’s here for good and reckons almost everyone will get it eventually.
Gotta be honest its not totally an original thought my sister in law said it too and shes a GP. All we can hope is getting better treatment to ensure less people die of it.
At the moment it feels like the government have lost perspective on why the message exists and gone solely for producing messages as the end it itself. Hardly surprising given Cummings love of the glib catchphrase.
Joepud ... or a vaccine.
Has everyone given up on that idea?
The whole point of restrictions is to protect people until there is a vaccine and keep the wheels on the NHS.
I saw some behaviour expert a while back who said compliance started extremely high but dropped markedly at 2 points, the big drop being Cummings event. What has been done since to rebuild any trust? I fear compliance will be low from the start of any new lockdown
I agree lockdown compliance was good last time and it did its job. But this next time? How do we get it to the same levels? I’m not suggesting we have armed squaddies on the streets in tanks.
I think you're on to something with the lack of leadership on this. I'm not clear what exactly we're trying to achieve any more. Putting the conspiracy theorist loons to one side, there is a genuine debate about what gives us the "best" outcome as individuals and a society and it's definitely not black and white. I've been pretty well on board with the whole thing but over the last couple of weeks I'm wondering whether the harm being stored up is worth it.
Struck me particularly today at the park with the kids. There was another girl there (age 6ish) who you could see desperately needing and wanting to connect with other kids. Every time she ventured near anyone she got a reaction off her mum like she was about to tread on a land mine. Our daughter's class at schools is running at 1/2 full - only a few kids officially sick / isolating so Christ knows what the rest are up to. I'm worried we're not getting the balance right - keeping in mind most kids and their parents are at minimal risk from this.
I think the underlying thing is that as a society we have a huge thing about death. So the avoidance of death is everything. Which sort of shifts the priority away from securing the best life for our kids and society.
Joepud … or a vaccine.
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">Has everyone given up on that idea?</span>
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">The whole point of restrictions is to protect people until there is a vaccine and keep the wheels on the NHS.</span>
I have. It took God knows how long to get rid of polio whats the likelihood of them solving covid in less than a year. Very slim I bet. Even if there is a vaccine they still need the logistics to get it to everyone which will take a long time.... But we always got the moonshot.
I'm totally onboard with protecting the NHS it's why I never vote Tory, but we need to be realistic we can't just expect people to stay inside lock themselves away it's too draining for people.
Vaccine? It's all gone quiet on that front; I would be (pleasantly) surprised if we had a fully tested and properly approved one in less than two years.
I wouldn't be surprised if a fully tested and proven was never developed.
Neil - as for your comment, I couldn't agree more that cummings behaviour - including his refusal to apologise - damaged compliance irreparably and will do the same to any new lockdown.
Six months since johnson decided to take this seriously and what tangible achievements since then?
Protect the NHS - yes but the collateral damage was thousands of care home deaths.
Generally a high level of compliance with regulations initially but cummings stuffed that.
Furlough support but that's ending soon.
Opening employers eyes to the possibilities of WFH - but that's an unintended consequence.
Downsides...
There has been too little international co-operation.
No clear communication about where we are today and what strategy we are following.
What is the objective of the gov's scattergun approach.
Public health professionals have been marginalised - until recently.
Widespread abuse of public sector procurement.
Absence of accountability across gov.
If a further lockdown, significantly increase the fines for any breach.
A start point of £1,000 would demonstrate serious intent; incremental increases are pointless - double the fine for each subsequent breach or failure to pay.
Three strikes and you get three months.
Too many people are taking the piss and will continue to do so under any new lockdown.
Make it explicitly clear that this is serious; make it hurt where it counts - in the pocket.
Name and shame in local media; why not?
Close to what my wife, a nurse, said this week. Except she said it’s here for good and reckons almost everyone will get it eventually.
Gotta be honest its not totally an original thought my sister in law said it too and shes a GP. All we can hope is getting better treatment to ensure less people die of it.
Maybe not original, but not a widespread view either, at least until recently. Underlying assumption for many has been we'll get the 'end' of this soon by a vaccine or whatever. As per a couple of other posts, if that's not the case it does make you wonder whether the current strategy is the right one
Most people breaking lockdown don't have £1000, they're looking for their next fags, weed & booze whilst wandering the streets
Most people breaking lockdown don’t have £1000, they’re looking for their next fags, weed & booze whilst wandering the streets
That's bollocks; most who breach the regs do so knowingly in the belief the chance of getting done is small and the penalty is laughable.
For the minority who fit your description, that's their problem.
