UK ( whatever they mean by that) can expect to have 50,000 cases per day unless we act now according to Patrick Vallance
I’ve tried to pretty much stick to the rules. Had a couple of socially distanced meet ups with 4 mates,....
I can honestly say that I have not broken a single rule, other than not having a mask in one shop. I saw my Stepfather only when it was legal to do so...
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">Sorry, didn't want to quote your whole responses. I think sticking to the rules is key here, but some people (not saying either of you) feel the need express their own rules which for example means my weekend (had 4 friends over for a bbq) is unacceptable while still totally inline with the rules. The idea of oh we need a stricter lockdown with the army on the street and 3 months in jail is total madness and people taking this holier than thou line drives me mad. We can't hide away for ever financially its not realistic. When we were allowed out more I visited my local coffee shop i was talking to the people there saying i feel conflicted about coming and putting them at risk, they basically said to me if people don't come we close its that simple. If the plan is stay at home then the gov' </span>basically<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;"> need to pay everyones wages, bills and foods for the next year or two, but thats not gonna happen.</span>
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">We need to live with this thing and do what we can to limit risk. Am I going out hugging and kissing all my friends no, but I am going to the coffee shop maybe 5/7days a week and going out for lunch and dinner with my partner and friends. </span>
How does he want us to act, surprised, confused, resigned, angry?
UK ( whatever they mean by that) can expect to have 50,000 cases per day unless we act now according to Patrick Vallance
But lets nor scaremonger or downplay what he said afterwards - that this value leads to 200 hospitalisation cases nothing like we saw in the first peak.
The key message here was this is whats going to happen if you don't do your part. Prepare yourself for a rough 6 months and support the NHS ability to help COVID and not COVID admissions - this is not going away - but most importantly please, please do your bit as an individual to reduce transmission, a clear message;
Use a mask, especially indoors in buildings and public transport / poorly ventilated areas
Wash you hands after / avoiding surface contact
Avoid contact with people outside of your immediate household wherever possible, and social distance otherwise at least.
Regardless of politics, its really is that simple for the next six months.
We can’t hide away for ever financially its not realistic.
Actually it is realistic, if we wanted to. The govt could quite easily support the economy for an indefinite period whilst we find a solution which minimises the number of deaths from the virus. The only thing stopping it is the political will and the willingness of the public to accept it.
But lets nor scaremonger or downplay what he said afterwards – that this value leads to 200 hospitalisation cases not
Beeb says 200 deaths a day
Use a mask, especially indoors
What about in schools, Boris told me it was impossible to teach like this.
Avoid contact with people outside of your immediate household wherever possible, and social distance otherwise at least.
I am also unable to socially distance at school.
The new rules seem to be being ignored just as wilfully as the old rules in our neck of the woods.
Both of our neighbours had guests over yesterday taking the household totals to 9-12. On one side our neighbour is a nurse so you'd think she would be all over it.
In the local park last night we again had several groups of 20-30 teenagers (per group) all sitting together. The Caribbean barbers down the road was rammed all weekend - none of the staff wearing visors, none of the customers wearing masks and to be honest I've never walked past and seen any different. At school it's pretty noticeable which parents aren't wearing masks and it's amazing how many people now have asthma so "can't wear a mask". I've come close to popping my clogs several times with asthma and if I can manage it I suspect most of the other asthmatics can as well.
Today we're being told that cases could rise to 50K a day in the next few weeks - all I hear is it's the government's fault but personal responsibility is clearly not a "thing" anymore.
I've also stuck to the rules since the outset - because I'm in a high risk group as is one of our kids. I lost my job early on so it's been a miserable 6 months all things considered and it now looks like it's going to get worse again. FFS.
Beeb says 200 deaths a day
Actually AA you are correct, apologies, its deaths not admissions.
We've got 200 hospitalisations a day already.
Avoid contact with people outside of your immediate household wherever possible, and social distance otherwise at least.
Not sure I agree with this. There's loads of evidence that transmission outdoors is very low, and very little risk from outdoor socialising (like bike rides, funnily enough). It's going to be hard enough doing the rest of it, so we need to protect and even encourage activities which provide some relief from the restrictions on other parts of life.
In the local park last night we again had several groups of 20-30 teenagers (per group) all sitting together
Class bubble? if they dont have to do it at school its tough for them to understand why not the rest of the time.
@dazh - I agree. Clarity on being outdoors is better should be there.... Health and wellbeing is much more than this bloody virus.
Not sure I agree with this.
And therein lies the issues. These are the UK's top scientists, maybe trust them and do as you're told? Why do you feel you disagree with social distancing outdoors?
if they dont have to do it at school its tough for them to understand why not the rest of the time.
This. I told my 16 year old she probably wouldn't be able to hang out with her mates after this week. Her instant response was what difference does it make when she's with them all day at school? She's right.
Class bubble?
The youth who were drunk in the park here on Friday were from surrounding villages and towns, nearly 100 in total I would estimate....
Actually it is realistic, if we wanted to. The govt could quite easily support the economy for an indefinite period whilst we find a solution which minimises the number of deaths from the virus. The only thing stopping it is the political will and the willingness of the public to accept it.
Sorry to be flippant but if its as realistic and easy as you claim why not set out a plan and pop it in the mail for Boris he seems to be lacking ideas currently? Fact is its not, social services can't even support the amount of people its required to support now. Expecting the gov' to support the whole country for the next 6+ months while we sit at home and watch netflix isn't realistic... not without mass unemployment and a horrific recession that we just can't recover from.
Use a mask, especially indoors in buildings and public transport / poorly ventilated areas
If mask wearing indoors in poorly ventilated areas is a must, then there are a couple of logical follow-on questions from that.
Still, we're now expecting a statement from the PM tomorrow, let's see.
Kryton57
Full Member
@cheddarchallenged – why didn’t you call the cops?
Kryton57 - we did earlier in the summer (loads of antisocial behaviour issues and mini-raves that pretty much started mid afternoon and continued through to the early hours every night from June through to 2 weeks ago.
The Police would invariably turn up 1-2 days later - the one time they did turn up while it was happening (in a van full of cops) they said they weren't allowed to climb over the 4ft high locked gates to get into the park and the council wouldn't let them have a key - there were literally hundreds of kids jeering at them. I It's a complete waste of time but the sense I got from the policeman was that he was pretty embarrassed about having their wings clipped by leaders higher up.
And therein lies the issues. These are the UK’s top scientists, maybe trust them and do as you’re told? Why do you feel you disagree with social distancing outdoors?
As I understood it, the guidance about getting together with others - indoors or outdoors - still required 2 metres distance, or 1 metre and some other measures eg masks. That's the fundamental bit that has consistently been missed in the coverage with each change in the guidance, whether it's tightening or loosening.
not without mass unemployment and a horrific recession that we just can’t recover from.
You need to think beyond the traditional orthodoxy about how money and national finances work. The govt could underwrite the entire economy indefinitely if it *wanted* to, but it doesn't. The answer to why is who would lose out if they went down such a path.
The new rules seem to be being ignored just as wilfully as the old rules in our neck of the woods.
There's ignoring it, then theres a whole other world of conspiracy theories, hoax claims and general libertarian idiocy. In Bolton, which has the highest rate in the country, its rampant
Yasmin Qureshi, Labour MP for Bolton South East, said many people in the area believed the virus was a fake, government-constructed concept and as a result were refusing to adhere to social distancing guidelines.
I gather #thinkingforyourself isn't meant to be ironic.
How about #dontbeadick
The youth who were drunk in the park here on Friday were from surrounding villages and towns, nearly 100 in total I would estimate….
I think you may have fallen down the sarcasm 😜
Does anyone have any positive observations today?
Of course not.
Are you mad?
We're in the middle of a global pandemic, likely to be at the start of a second wave, we have a government of incompetent half-wits who clearly haven't got a ****ing clue what they're doing and a good chunk of the population are determined to act like total bell ends
You need to think beyond the traditional orthodoxy about how money and national finances work. The govt could underwrite the entire economy indefinitely if it *wanted* to, but it doesn’t. The answer to why is who would lose out if they went down such a path.
You claimed it was something that could be done "easily" but even thinking beyond the traditional orthodoxy of finance doesn't make it easy to do. You make it sounds like Boris wakes up tomorrow and goes right we pay for everything you can all stay at home. You're suggesting we fundamentally change how the uk and the world to an extent operates. Simple needs such as how would the gov' supply the whole country with gas and electric so we can cook our lockdown potatoes and porridge. Its like saying its easy just to change the voting system to PR its far from "easy."
Does anyone have any positive observations today?
Yes. It's sunny outside.
The govt could underwrite the entire economy indefinitely if it *wanted* to, but it doesn’t.
If it was that easy every tinpot dictator and populist leader (including Johnson) would do it. There are real world consequences to trying to do this in isolation, we live in a global economy that nobody properly controls.
We’re in the middle of a global pandemic, likely to be at the start of a second wave, we have a government of incompetent half-wits who clearly haven’t got a ****ing clue what they’re doing and a good chunk of the population are determined to act like total bell ends
Binners with the headlines today - sadly, if anything he's under playing it.
It is sunny, but I'm stuck at home waiting for a new work laptop which you can guarantee will be deliver the second I pedal off the drive.....
Some positive observations. Yes it is sunny.
And... after six months we now have a lot more knowledge about this new pathogen. We know who is most at risk for morbidity and mortality. We can test them and prioritise that testing to have the biggest effect on their protection. We have some treatments that reduce both hospital stay and morbidity and more treatments are coming, most likely by the end of the year. Vaccines, although not yet proven to protect, seem to generate a reasonable response, so some protection is likely to follow. The economy is not great but if you stand back, it seems to recover when we let the brakes off. Influenza is likely to be relatively mild this winter. And it’s sunny.
And I feel like cycling again! How’s that for a list?
You’re suggesting we fundamentally change how the uk and the world to an extent operates.
We don't need to change a thing, it already operates that way, and we already have a system in place to distribute it. The only thing we'd be changing is who the money goes to.
There are real world consequences to trying to do this in isolation, we live in a global economy that nobody properly controls.
This is true. But we are insulated somewhat from the fact that we are a 2 trillion (or whatever it is) economy which issues and borrows it's own currency. Also the other major economies are in exactly the same boat so we wouldn't be acting in isolation. It would need international cooperation to prevent a race to the bottom, but it can be done. When the alternative is allowing a catastrophic collapse of the economy the question we should be asking is why aren't they doubling down instead of talking about 'repaying the debt'.
Does anyone have any positive observations today?
Mrs Anagallis feels better but still has no sense of smell. I however feel like a pig shat in my head.
No test results...bored.
So that's a fresh lockdown for Newport, Bridgend, Merthyr Tydfil and Blaenau Gwent announced then. I'm completely surrounded so does that mean I can drive along the M4 to further afield or am I basically stuck?
@daveatextremistsdotcouk - they haven't announced closing, they could stay open for locals and run on a skeleton staff.
@reluctantjumper - Vaughan Gething is meeting with all councils, health boards and police forces in South Wales to discuss, so we may all be locked down this week...
Does anyone have any positive observations today?
The vaccine seems to be progressing well so there’s a possible end to all this.
Caerphilly which was the first Welsh county to go into local lockdown is started to flatten its numbers out.
Otherwise no.
I’ve spent the weekend being pissed off because a MTB ‘Brand Ambassador’ / influencer blatantly and publicly ignored the quarantine rules, then blamed me for calling them out on it.
The local lockdowns in Wales are being completely and utterly ignored by most. The ‘good reasons’ I hear for leaving their county are flimsy lies at best.
Welsh Gov seems unwilling or unable to tackle the causes of the spread based on its own data.
There’s seems to be an inevitable march towards the bad old days of March, April etc, only I don’t think the public have any desire to actually do anything but try to ignore it.
It would need international cooperation to prevent a race to the bottom, but it can be done. When the alternative is allowing a catastrophic collapse of the economy the question we should be asking is why aren’t they doubling down instead of talking about ‘repaying the debt’.
So it's gone from something simple and easy to requiring international cooperation??? This is sounding a lot like Boris and his moonshot. Im not saying I disagree with you, but you seem to be massively over simplifying it. Im all for state run utilities like power, trains and so on some stuff just shouldn't be in private control but its not as easy as you seem to make out.
daveatextremistsdotcouk
Full Member
BPW closing
We'll see, no other Wales MTB venue / centre has closed, they're just asking for only local people to attend.
BPW did at least try to stop people from lock-down areas coming, but it's not like they're taking ID at the door.
Vaughan Gething is meeting with all councils, health boards and police forces in South Wales to discuss, so we may all be locked down this week…
Fully expecting a lockdown by Friday. Perfect timing for my first block of days off for nearly a year, typical. I will be respecting it though.
I like TiRed's perspective. Do what you can to follow up the rules and encourage others to do the same. Don't panic, we are stuck with it now, make the best of a bad situation.
At school it’s pretty noticeable which parents aren’t wearing masks and it’s amazing how many people now have asthma so “can’t wear a mask”
Lots of professional cyclists in your area?
I agree with TiRed - let us each do what we can. And ride bikes more.
The Whitty/Vallance thing was surprisingly shoddy. 7 day doubling is an exaggeration, but on the other hand, they were basing it on the *reported* cases and *infections* are probably running 2-4x higher (ish, with uncertainty). Which makes a nonsense of their estimate that 50k cases would lead to 200ish deaths later on. An *infection* fatality rate of around 0.5% is probably reasonable at this point, but that implies the exponential curve was displaying the number of infections, in which case it should be around 10k currently rising to 150k, not the 3k rising to 50k they were using. Ie, they were out by a significant factor.
Of course it was just a projection for the purposes of scaring people, but a bit worrying they can't get the basics right.
Also, that lovely plot showing the rise in cases across the age groups? SAGE were telling us that R was less than 1 for almost the entire period. Morons.
Im all for state run utilities like power, trains and so on some stuff just shouldn’t be in private control but its not as easy as you seem to make out.
You misunderstand me I think. I'm not talking about the state running anything or nationalising anything (although I note the railways are effectively renationalised). All it would do is provide the funds to keep people in jobs and prevent businesses from going under until a point in the future when they can reopen. Where the state could intervene is in redeploying those people who can't do their existing jobs to help with the pandemic. Instead they've chosen to withdraw support and leave businesses and employees to the ravages of the market on the basis of a fundamental lie, that they 'can't afford it'. They can.
