it’s always teens/youth
Depends where you look. If you went to the garden centre today, I doubt the packed out cafe would contain many teens or youths.
It’s hardly surprising though.
She has presumably been forced into school with 1000+ other kids and not even allowed to wear a mask vs members of the family?
Actually, she's now at uni locally and is mostly distance learning, which makes it weirder, if anything.
> deleted some Daily Mail nonsense <
That's it. Blame the young people. It's all their fault, just like the government and the Daily Mail reported. Perhaps you should reflect on the government's catastrophic failures rather than being manipulated by misdirection into blaming young people. I'm nearly 50.
kelvin, what happened to kimbers' post showing a graphic printed in the DM some months ago?
Your post suggests you deleted it; that's a mod level action.
Have you unintentionally outed yourself as a stealth mod?
It's all very well inviting dissenting voices, but if those voices are actually materially harmful, then what end is served by inviting them in?
I could be strongly of the opinion that a daily draught of mercury is good for the constitution - and it would be supported by medical practice 200 years ago - but you would be remiss, surely, if you didn't warn people to disregard my opinion, no?
I'm always up for new stuff, but let's keep the 5G-turning-frogs-gay for elsewhere can we?
Let's keep it clean here.
The people to blame are the selfish ones who gather like cattle on the beach, in the pub, throw parties, etc. Young people are ti blame too; looking around my college the majority of them are not socially distancing at all.
Adults however, should know better and lead by example for the younger generation. Just follow the rules and dont be stupid.
The people to blame are the selfish ones who gather like cattle on the beach, in the pub, throw parties, etc. Young people are ti blame too; looking around my college the majority of them are not socially distancing at all.
The Conservative Government and the people who voted for them are to blame for the poor handling in the U.K.
The Conservative Government and the people who voted for them are to blame for the poor handling in the U.K.
Yeah when I voted for Jason McCartney I voted based on his pandemic handling abilities.
As to trying to blame the young, they're just doing what anyone else would be doing their age. Its not a large enough risk to them so they'll crack on with life. If this was the zombie apocalypse then that attitude might be different.
Your post suggests you deleted it
I posted a graphic from a tweet by a Guardian journalist claiming to be the alert levels the government announced earlier this year. Turned out to be quite different to what the government actually published… and was from the Daily Mail.
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The Conservative Government and the people who voted for them are to blame for the poor handling in the U.K.
This.
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Its not a large enough risk to them so they’ll crack on with life.
You know different teens and youths to me… those I know have taken seriously the social distancing aimed at protecting people other than themselves. They’ve gone well beyond government advice and rules.
Yeah when I voted for Jason McCartney I voted based on his pandemic handling abilities.
Did you vote in support of his record about reducing welfare payments? Can you imagine how reducing the support of disadvantaged people can contribute to health issues which then cause an increased risk of Coronavirus?
https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/24887/jason_mccartney/colne_valley/votes#welfare
The people to blame are the selfish ones who gather like cattle on the beach, in the pub, throw parties, etc. Young people are ti blame too; looking around my college the majority of them are not socially distancing at all.
It's well known that beaches didn't lead to a massive rise in cases. My perspective is that in locations where people feel comfortable, like work, school, college etc. they will often forget to social distance effectively.
And finally, blaming an entire demographic is somewhat counter productive. Especially when that group has virtually no power to effect meaningful change. The government has that, look at what they're doing with it!
Cases going up- deaths still going down even with lag effect
Boris can shove his rule of six up his arse
DrJ
Well indeed but the point is that Covid is a godsend to Cummings et al – the chance to shovel masses of cash to pals without oversight and simultaneously divert from the dumpster fire that is Brexit. A few people died. Big deal.
Anything is a godsend to populism.
If it wasn't Covid it would be immigrants or just making a crisis
"Blame the EU for forcing us to sign an oven ready deal"... "the Courts for upholding laws" ...
And finally, blaming an entire demographic is somewhat counter productive. Especially when that group has virtually no power to effect meaningful change.
Blaming someone who can't vote or never will vote for you is extremely productive.
Yeah when I voted for Jason McCartney I voted based on his pandemic handling abilities.
I assume you voted for him, knowing the consequence would be Boris Johnson (notionally) running a country for 5 years. I can only assume you were content with that and knew of his record as Mayor of London and Foreign Secretary.
If any good comes of this, the electorate may in the future vote for the right people capable of dealing with such black swan events rather than TV personalities who can bluster their way through a hard hitting interview from Phil and Holly.
My eldest daughter started school 10 days ago and yesterday developed a snotty nose and cough. The cough isn't continuous and she doesn't have other covid symptoms so as she felt well and keen to go she is in school today. Hopefully catching her coughs as well as she did all day yesterday, and washing her hands. I'm not particularly worried it's covid, but it is clearly a reminder that 4 and 5 year olds spread Corona viruses and similar to reach other readily at school and the school's measures won't stop that (hopefully they will limit it at least a little though). It feels like just a matter of time before covid in schools is a regular occurrence. I hope the school's/government will cope with it and the closures, but I fear it'll be little better at all than the march to July closures.
the electorate may in the future vote for the right people capable of dealing with such black swan events rather than TV personalities who can bluster their way through a hard hitting interview from Phil and Holly.
Fat chance, we live in the age of Ice Dancing Celebrity Love Island. The electorate's insterest in figuring out who are the right people is as near to zero as makes no difference.
Maybe what we actually need is the Roman Republic, where you had to do something to earn the vote.
The Conservative Government and the people who voted for them are to blame for the poor handling in the U.K.
This 100%! Yes we did't know we would be a pandemic but, these people decided to vote for a party who can do nothing more than come up with 3 or 4 word slogans and drive a digger through a fake wall. (also with a 3 word slogan on it.) These people voted in an incompetent gov' and fell for the spin hook line and sinker. A few claps for the NHS doesn't absolve your guilt.
Maybe what we actually need is the Roman Republic, where you had to do something to earn the vote.
That öl is a dangerous route to take. Who decides what counts as a thing that allows you to vote? Military service? Police service? NHS service? Starship Troopers (book not film) gives an idea of what that road could lead to and, given how much the military and police are shrinking, you’d soon have a really small voter pool.
On a joking note, Terry Pratchett had the right idea with the Patrician. Sadly, we do not have someone that clever and selfless to elect as a de facto dictator.
The cough isn’t continuous
Can you define continuous?
If your child is coughing do you think the school wants them?
Blaming someone who can’t vote or never will vote for you is extremely productive.
Well yes, I have assumed that the outcome we're aiming for is control over the virus, rather than of the general populace.
Maybe what we actually need is the Roman Republic, where you had to do something to earn the vote.
That's one from the house of Cummings.
Can you define continuous?
Most years my daughter gets a cold, with a cough that only manifests at night, when she's lying flat. I'd say that's not a continuous cough.
^ You can vote if you can drive partially sighted from Durham to Barnard Castle.
My eldest daughter started school 10 days ago and yesterday developed a snotty nose and cough. The cough isn’t continuous and she doesn’t have other covid symptoms so as she felt well and keen to go she is in school today.
Probably shouldn't be in school. NHS states an individual with ANY symptoms should self isolate.
Teachers lives matter too.
Probably shouldn’t be in school. NHS states an individual with ANY symptoms should self isolate.
Teachers lives matter too.
Below is the definition - but not entirely sure what constitutes "a lot" or a "coughing episode"
a new, continuous cough – this means coughing a lot for more than an hour, or 3 or more coughing episodes in 24 hours (if you usually have a cough, it may be worse than usual)
Pretty clear to me.
New cough? Keep ‘em home. Unlikely to be coronavirus, but spreading other things at the moment is probably a bit antisocial… you don’t want loads of other parents having to make the same decision you are right now, do you?
Seems pretty clear to me too, but I think we've arrived at opposite conclusions....
I think anyone with a cough does it for more than 3 episodes in 24 hrs
Masks now compulsory in Wales in indoor public spaces. Glad to see all* the staff and pretty much all the customers with masks today, in stark contrast to previously, however it was early in the morning so perhaps the chavs weren't in yet.
* bar the checkout woman.... ?
Checkout staff in our three supermarkets don't wear masks, but they are behind full perspex screens.
deaths still going down even with lag effect
Deaths are currently static and hospital admissions going up. It's not a rapid system, so don't jump the gun just yet. It's a supertanker not a speedboat.
And @thecaptain, the confidence limits shown are for the mean not the prediction interval for the daily data - it's a generalized linear model with negative binomial link function. You can think of the bands as being the range in which I am 19/20 times certain that the ROLLING 7-day mean will lie inside this band (not individual daily data).
I think TiRed deserves some kind of special badge for the efforts they’ve made to increase everyone’s understanding in this thread.
So my kids can visit the grandparents
Only if we all go grouse shooting !
Where the government drafted an exemption for their donors to the rule of 6
The way the government delayed & then shut down the committee meeting late last night so none could object to it was particularly underhanded
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1305483373385854976?s=19
Blush. I'm looking at short- and medium-term predictions that don't focus on "look-at-me" cases. To predict deaths from hospitalizations also requires the proportion of deaths in hospital, which has changed since the start of the epidemic. But even when modelled independently, it is clear that deaths are following admissions. Projection beyond about 8 weeks is largely futile at the moment.
Seems Pfizer has taken a sudden leap forward in their Vaccine plans - they seem to suggest they'll have completed their mass trial next month and will start to distribute it in November...
How likely is it massive corners are being cut to get approval before the election in November?
Projection beyond about 8 weeks is largely futile at the moment.
I think the "we can only really see this... not what you've just repeated from a headline grabbing talking point" has been the most important part of what you've done TiRed... the rest of of us have been too keen to jump on nuggets of half truths... whether they be of the "nothing to worry about" or the "guaranteed catastrophe ahead" varieties. It's understandable that we do that... but the constant drip-drip of... "this is what the latest data suggests, stop trying to use them to turn edge cases into certainties for the months ahead" has been useful for us all.
Pretty clear to me.
So what is coughing a lot then. Like an hour with no real break from the coughing? And the other part of the definition, what is an episode? It can't just be a single cough can it?
I think they'll have to be more specific, or there'll be 0 kids in school come winter.
Dosing of volunteers is unlikely to be rate determining. Even for 30,000 subjects. What will be limiting is database aggregation, data cleaning, analysis and reporting. Then when you have an impressive result - statistically fewer people catching COVID in the active group compared to placebo (P < 0.05 for a comparison of proportions affected?), then you file. For how long do you want to show evidence of protection? 1000 patient-years is 1000 patients followed for one full year (tricky for November) or 12000 patients followed for a month. Which trial offers the most information on lasting duration of any protection? What about long-term serious adverse events (like the Oxford trial)? It is a balance for vaccines and therapies. Our therapeutic is tested to see what it does within one month.
Review by regulators takes 12 months for a new chemical or biological entity - The PDUFA date is legislated by act for the FDA. Anything faster will be expedited. How much regulatory scrutiny of adverse event tables do you want? I don't do vaccines and I don't do manufacturing, but the latter is where the regulation rubber really hits the road. Graham does this.
[TD:DR] You can't cram a one-year clinical trial into a bigger-but-shorter one month trial and get the same quality long-term information.
I think they’ll have to be more specific, or there’ll be 0 kids in school come winter.
No, they'll have to have more testing available. The current guidelines for the symptoms to look out for are based on symptoms in adults... not for kids... we need to move to "if in doubt, get a test" for everyone in schools, including kids... the alternative is either lots of kids in school that shouldn't be, or lots of kids missing school that shouldn't be (or both).
[TD:DR] You can’t cram a one-year clinical trial into a bigger month trial and get the same quality long-term information.
It's like the classic "novice project manager" mistake... just because the expert estimate is 6 months with 10 people, doesn't mean that you can use your common sense to push the project out of the door in 2 weeks using 120 people.
It takes one woman nine months to make a baby, so nine women take... Is the classic project management line.
I think they’ll have to be more specific, or there’ll be 0 kids in school come winter.
Oh, to be clear... they'll need to be less specific, because it is looking as if kids often present symptoms differently to adults... and the current symptoms guidelines/list is based on how adults present. This obviously can't be done till we are able to test the hundreds of thousands of people a day that Johnson promised back in... [too long ago, I forget]... they haven't even managed to ramp up to the lower "number of tests" that Hancock promised us as a diversion from Johnson' failed "number of people" target back in... [again, a good while back].
That’s one from the house of Cummings.
I think the House of Cummings would be more content with a dictatorship.
