I lived in Spain in 89-90, it took months to get the paperwork sorted. No idea how long it takes now but you don't want to run past 31/12.
I don’t think people are going back to les bises, hand shaking, shouting into other people’s faces at close proximity in discos, sharing drinks/joints, cramming into chilly gondolas or any of the things that resulted in very high R numbers in places like Ischgul
Damn, really gonna miss those chilly gondolas.
Oh in terms of Brexit? Yeah of course - I'm looking to go within the next few weeks and request a padron etc. I hope 3 months is enough even with Spanish bureaucracy.
Oh in terms of Brexit? Yeah of course – I’m looking to go within the next few weeks and request a padron etc. I hope 3 months is enough even with Spanish bureaucracy.
You'd be suprised.
Mrs Gove
I know they are doing it for effect, but imagine being this much of a ****.
it’s the whole basis of either natural or vacine induced herd immunity
Which isn’t always possible. Plenty of viruses that we live with have to be controlled through social and physical barriers to transmission long term, because there is no route to ‘natural’ herd immunity, and a vaccine isn’t available. The whole ‘herd immunity’ path just isn’t there for many viruses, and we don’t yet know if it will be for this one. The exit from this may still be improved treatment and/or concerted containment/isolation. We can and should try and aim for a/multiple vaccines, but we can’t plan for future spread of the virus based on a ‘natural’ herd immunity that may not be occurring yet, if ever.
I know they are doing it for effect
You’d hope so. But it might just be a genuine lack of empathy and intelligence.
There's always been the doubt that a vaccine can be had and how effective it might be and for how long, and if it will have to be regularly adapted to ever varying strains.
We can look at the evolution and spread of previous viruses. They tend to get less virulent as they mutate and the population develops resistance - so less people catch the virus and less get severe symptoms.
There may be no exit, just living with it. Long term it will probably just become yet another virus that becomes assimilated into the "common cold".
We're currently in a damage limitation exercise trying to find a compromise between health, economic and social impacts. Priorities will evolve, they already have with some governments choosing courses that favour one aspect or the other in response to medical, social or economic imperatives. I don't think there's the will for concerted containment and the window of opportunity has in any case passed - we're down to damage limitation.
It’ll be lifted on Thursday, I’m sure, now Eid’s out of the way and everyone’s just ignoring it anyway
Lifted? It's never even been imposed. Legislation to back up their guidance may or may not appear next week. I suspect it'll be mainly ignored by those they were targeting either way.
I suspect it’ll be mainly ignored by those they were targeting either way.
Anecdotal evidence would suggest it’s been comprehensively ignored by pretty much everyone, on account of it being a completely nonsensical load of old bollocks.
But then this isn’t about the government doing something, it’s about them making it look like they’re doing something so that they can subsequently deny all responsibility for it. It’s just blame-storming
Boris and chums obviously think we’re just a bunch of thick northern peasants.
Yeah, well not so thick that we didn’t all see straight through this bag of shite
So what's the odds on Cummings' Govt reversing the northern (not Eid related honest Guv) restrictions by Friday?
And where will the next set of restrictions be announced for? This could roll around the country… the PM’s “whack-a-mole” analogy suggests this is likely to be short spells of applying and removing restrictions on an ongoing basis for areas all over the country (but I’m guessing not London).
So what’s the odds on Cummings’ Govt reversing the northern (not Eid related honest Guv) restrictions by Friday?
They’d have done it on Saturday, but that would have looked a bit too obvious. They said they’d review it every 7 days, so it’ll be ‘as you were’ on Thursday
And where will the next set of restrictions be announced for
At a guess, I’d say the next place with a large population of brown people who fancy having a bit of a get together
Wherever it is you’ll still be encouraged to go out for a pint if you’re the right colour
Interesting the Andy Burnham's request to re-impose shielding requirements has been dismissed by downing street.
Another demonstration that johnson and his clown circus are completely divorced from reality - and the north.
More idiocy in the form of floating ideas via the media to gauge reaction:
- lockdown the over 50's...not enough police in the UK to enforce that one and guaranteed to lose swathes of tory support
- lockdown london and use M25 as some sort of border? more bollocks.
Neither of these will ever be heard of again.
What we should do is...test, trace and isolate - and repeat; that should have happened from mid-march.
Dump Serco.
Use and build on the expertise which we have in public health.
I will continue to use my common sense (not johnson's british version of common sense), avoid the great british public, practice good hygiene and ignore johnson and his clown circus.
frankconway
I will continue to use my common sense (not johnson’s british version of common sense), avoid the great british public, practice good hygiene and ignore johnson and his clown circus.
Absolutely, couldn't agree more.
Frank,
I think the government has been watching too many movies during lockdown.
The over 50's idea sounds like a remake of 'Logan's Run' and the Locdown London idea was surely inspired by 'Escape from New York'
Did anyone else see 'Apocalypse Now' on telly last night?
Locking London down was dismissed way back when it would actually have made a difference, so it stands to reason that they'll float the idea now.
@inkster - I watched X-Men Apocalypse last night. I think Cummings is Apocalypse
I'm hoping that Angela Rayner is Jean Grey. She's ginger, moody and may possess unlimited powers (if only Starmer/Xavier could train her to harness them).
So what’s the odds on Cummings’ Govt reversing the northern (not Eid related honest Guv) restrictions by Friday?
Well when you look at the governments own data there's only a couple of boroughs that have a small spike recently but the rest are flat, dropping or always low.
So I'd say highly likely.
Whats the next non white big event so we can plan when the next lockdown is and where?
In my wee galloway town if you dont wear a mask then you dont get into shops (signs saying No Mask?-No Entry)
In the Lake District last week I didn’t see anyone challenged for not wearing a face covering. Not once. Anywhere.
Not sure what response is best. In my local co-op they had a message on the tannoy saying that mask wearing was compulsory but there were many medical exemptions so don't worry if you see someone not wearing a mask and don't confront them. It would be a shame to stigmatise those with a genuine medical need. Its still pretty easy to keep a good distance from others in most situations.
Interesting the Andy Burnham’s request to re-impose shielding requirements has been dismissed by downing street.
The irony is people shielding in busy tourist towns were probably at less risk during lockdown as there weren't really many people about. Now the tourists are here it's pretty much baton down the hatches.
I think the government has been watching too many movies during lockdown.
I thought Dom got some of his best ideas by miss understanding fiction. That Christmas job advert being a case in point. Unfortunately he hadn't grasped that the person he used as an example would be totally allergic to his spun up world not want to work in it.
Playing Devils Advocate slightly but...
If the data was correct showing that these northern areas had worryingly high numbers of infection (and they've been talked about since Leicester lockdown and some had other measures) and if there is a high population of Muslim/BAME in parts of those areas, and if they had allowed unlimited travel for extended families from around the country for Eid, leading to the infection being spread around the country amongst the BAME communities that we know are worst affected by the virus....
Would we be all up in arms about the government allowing big meetings among the community most at risk and allowing the spread?
A whole lot of "ifs" in there, and I'm not intending to defend poor decision making and woeful communication, but it occurred to me that not banning travel and meetings may have proved an equally bad policy.
Mrs Gove
I know they are doing it for effect, but imagine being this much of a ****.
https://twitter.com/TheMendozaWoman/status/1290028631876501504
Sarah Vine is vile and ugly.
On the inside and the outside.
I’m not intending to defend poor decision making and woeful communication
When did they have the data, how long have they know when the event is, why did they announce the changes 3 hours before they were due to kick in, and before they'd written them or passed legislation for them? It's all very kafkaesque, and "imagine if they did nothing" is no good excuse for doing something in such a poor manner. Arse and elbow come to mind.
The thing that gets me most is that there is no extension to the support for people shielding in these areas... don't meet family and friends... but get out there and back to the workplace... how does that work?
why did they announce the changes 3 hours before they were due to kick in, and before they’d written them or passed legislation for them?
Because they are incompetent. We all know that.
“imagine if they did nothing” is no good excuse for doing something in such a poor manner.
So they should have done nothing and caused a big spike in BAME deaths rather than try to prevent it, no matter how half-arsed their actions were?
They are destroying trust in their advice with their actions... that in itself will have a death count. They should have acted in a timely, legal and clear way. That would have saved lives. Last week's panicky rule changes, that still haven't been legislated for, were and are counter productive... for everyone... including practising Muslims.
Thanks to the idiots, my Mrs can't even see her mother in the Nursing Home - by seeing, I mean standing in the car park, whilst her mum is wheeled to a window and they 'talk' over skype. Can't even do that now. FFS.
We've been doing all we need to, not been out to the pub or shopping, just out for essentials. Working from home etc. The Govt need local measures not just a whole area, as infections are low where I live, and from general observation's everyone is behaving. I've three colleagues who live in and around Oldham, and they stay away as no-one is following any rules there.
I’ve three colleagues who live in and around Oldham, and they stay away as no-one is following any rules there.
As Kelvin said, no one is going to follow the rules if the rules themselves are not clearly communicated and have a clear and rational justification. Publishing rules via twiter late at night or via leaks to Peston and Kuensberg, based on data that no one can see with precious little explanation is going to get the reaction and response it deserves.
At the moment the UKs covid response planning is at the level of a banana republic dictator issuing random and self-serving dictats to cover up for the fact that he hasn't got a f****** clue what he's doing.
nickjb :
In my local co-op they had a message on the tannoy
Congratulations....you must have a reasonable sized co-op, like i said my town is tiny, and you can walk from one side of our co-op to the other in 4 large strides, doubt they've got a tannoy either, same goes for our small tesco express but folk are thankfully still following the one in/one out routine otherwise they get asked to leave, other shops around the town are exercising their right as shop owners to refuse entry if no mask. We have not had anyone testing positive for covid in our town yet and want it to stay that way.
Tourists are very welcome here as Dumfries And Galloway relies on the tourist industry as there is **** all else in this area for employment, come, enjoy the area but dont be an entitled dick
At the moment the UKs covid response planning is at the level of a banana republic dictator issuing random and self-serving dictats to cover up for the fact that he hasn’t got a f*** clue what he’s doing.
Indeed
At this point on proceedings, I don't think I'm alone in weighing up the government 'advice' and asking a couple of simple questions
Q) Do I think they are genuinelly prioritising mine and other citizens' best interests?
A) No. Of course not. Just look at their track record. They couldn't give a flying *
Q) Do I think they know what they're doing?
A) Definitely not. Don't be ridiculous! Again... just look at their record
So I'll be making my own rules up, thanks. Seems like an awful lot of other people have decided the same. In our case, as we've both got parents who are shielding, this will involve being extra cautious, but I'm sure that many, having asked themselves the same couple of questions will conclude '**** it! I'm going to the pub with all my mates'
Whats coming out of government has always been dubious and IMHO self-serving/arse-covering, but after witnessing the shambles of the Greater Manchester lockdown over the weekend, what they now say has absolutely zero credibility. They're a bunch of clowns, flailing around in a ballpool
It would have been useful if they had published this on Thursday:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
And then say anything over x cases per 100,000 get conditions attached. I think Germany use a 50 cases per 100,000 measure.
Its all about grown up conversations
Publishing rules via twiter late at night or via leaks to Peston and Kuensberg, based on data that no one can see with precious little explanation is going to get the reaction and response it deserves.
I totally agree. I'll just make sure I give it the response that vulnerable people in my local area deserve, rather than being an arse.
Its all about grown up conversations
Talking of grown-ups:
Tony Blair has just been on Radio 4 (regarding John Hulmes sad death) and was immediately followed by an interview with Matt Hancock. The contrast couldn't have been more glaring.
Whatever your political allegiances and your opinion of him personally, I just wish we had a government that appeared vaguely like they knew what they were doing. It seems an awful long time since we've had that.
This lot are a bunch of complete imbeciles who are totally ill-equipped to deal with something of this magnitude and are just winging it, as Boris has done his entire 'career'.
Sounds like Hancock has his finger on the pulse
Here's the health secretary, Matt Hancock, speaking about the up to half a million coronavirus tests that could be carried out daily by the end of October.
"could be carried out" ??????????, shouldnt that read "will be carried out"?
Just when i think the level of contempt i hold for the government couldn't sink any lower
Here’s the health secretary, Matt Hancock, speaking about the up to half a million coronavirus tests that could be carried out daily by the end of October.
I think we can file that alongside the 'world-beating' track and trace app which we were assured would be in place at the beginning of June, yet here we are two months later with no sign of it and the whole privately-contracted, multi-billion track and trace system a complete shambles
They are utterly and completely incompetent
Perhaps we need Pritti "vacant" Patel to play the numberwang game
Priti Patel: 'there have been 300,034 974,000 tests carried out
In the meantime, yet more millions of taxpayers money being dished out to Dom's mates without any tendering process
Tory-linked PR firm granted £3m Covid-19 contract without tender
These are the lot who were responsible for renaming the official Conservative party Twitter account “factcheckUK” on the run-up to the election and setting up a false Labour party website peddling misinformation.
Very low probability or reporting zero deaths... Expect to see a slight upturn this month
15000
Deaths going up presumes the case increase isnt due to an increase in testing effort does it not. I'm totally out of the loop but is this the case?
So I’ll be making my own rules up, thanks. Seems like an awful lot of other people have decided the same.
I realise that you know this but some are not lucky enough to be able to afford to folliw their own rules. A majority cannot afford to and some like me will be back at school regardless. Even, or indeed because of, an offside ruling from Starmer schools will reopen regardless.
Cases are rising after adjusting for increased testing. This is a consequence of the unlocking. It just takes a couple of weeks to feed into the system and deaths follow. It is surprisingly slow actually. The curvature on the plot below (same analysis for CASES not deaths) is obvious. I think the daily fluctuations may be over-predicted. Ignore the last couple of days due to reporting lags. This analysis does not adjust for testing (deaths does not have to of course). You can see the nadir for cases is much earlier than deaths.
You can also see why @thecaptain and I keep banging on about exponential rather than linear plots.
PS if you like stats, the upturn in cases and deaths are statistically significant (P < 0.001). So that's depressing!
Cases are rising after adjusting for increased testing.
You would think that mainstream news would be able to say such things but then I am still waiting for them to talk about deaths per 100 000 to compare countries!!
This is a consequence of the unlocking.
It' more than just unlocking, it's the holiday season with all that implies. I've had contact with family and friends all over Europe in the last month and so have many people I know. They've put me up in their houses, we've eaten together, travelled in cars together... .
It's not quite life as normal, the handshakes and bises have gone, eveyone is washing their hands, car windows are left open as are house doors and windows. It's a long way from confinement though and inevitably there will be transmission, an increase in cases and a few tragedies.
Being objective the Covid risk we took was lower than driving those crazy unlimited sections of German autobahns where we got stuck in accident jams and watched the air ambulances flying people out, probably lower than crashing my bike down one of the cols I rode and definitely lower than the risk Madame took on her horse today when he decided he didn't want her sitting on him.
The majority of people catching the virus in France are in age groups with a very high chance of survival with few after effects. They are behaving rationally taking reasonable risks and I'm not going to criticise in that the system will cope, we won't swamp the hospitals.
So they're going to ban people from meeting each other in their homes/gardens but allow them to continue going down the pub? I have friends who work in the pub industry who I have massive sympathy for and anyone who knows me will confirm that I like a pint more than most, but this just seems utterly perverse on a number of levels. And do they really think anyone is obeying or enforcing the rule of only going down the pub with members of your household?
