I’d like to second what Northwind says.
No one has been "instructed" to go to work.
Since lockdown, if you couldn't work from home, you could go to work if social distancing made it possible. Last night didn't change that.
Are those pics of today's underground any busier than last week, do we know?
Calling them idiots for trying to balance that vs the risk they take in doing so, while sat in your spare bedroom-cum-office space working on your company provided laptop
I'm a travelling Salesman looking at 50% of my income and a wife on redudancy this year to support a family of 4 because I can't travel for their sake, and others, so you and your high horse can **** off quite frankly.
This one person I can meet, does it mean just that one person or can I meet other one persons on different days?
No one has been “instructed” to go to work.
Thats not what todays document says
https://twitter.com/christophertape/status/1259850451304013826
This is London, is it not? A place where a significant portion of the 9 million population do not own a car, or a bike, and have up until now relied entirely on a busy public transport system.
If you live in central London, a car is an expensive liability. There's no parking, and where there is it costs an absolute fortune. That's why people generally don't own cars and everyone uses public transport instead.
Boris has just said they will be bringing in social distancing on the Tube.
Good luck with that!
Manchester is the same. When I work at agencies in town I get the tram or bus in. So does everybody else. Virtually nobody drives into the city centre in the morning as you'd have to be a masochist.
This one person I can meet, does it mean just that one person or can I meet other one persons on different days?
As many as you like. Line 'em up like speed dating and just move to the next one when Boris rings the bell.
No one has been “instructed” to go to work.
Thats not what todays document says
"If their workplace is open" and it won't/shouldn't be open unless the appropriate social distancing/PPE measures are in place.
“If their workplace is open” and it won’t/shouldn’t be open unless the appropriate social distancing/PPE measures are in place.
And assuming it is....but your only option to get to work is a crowded tube or your 9 year old is at home with no prospect of school before September? Will furlough cover that to save that person either being laid off or put on unpaid leave?
“If their workplace is open” and it won’t/shouldn’t be open unless the appropriate social distancing/PPE measures are in place.
Again… it’s all down to employers now. Good luck!
Might I suggest that there is a timetable in place that sees a return to “normality” by the end of June in order not to extend the furlough scheme?
Going to take differences along the Irish Border - with the UK having less tight controls and the onus being placed on the Irish side to manage the difference.
Well, Lord Sumption has shown his true colours on BBC PM.
Just another ‘Nanny State’, ‘common sense’, ‘self preservation’, ‘look after number one’ ranter, legal expertise or not.
Just read it in the 50 page document shared above.
Reference #3 is 404 - how many others? We have to manually check all hyperlinks in our documents.
Anyone hear Sunetra Gupta on Radio Scotland just now?. Professor of theoretical epidemiology at Oxford, seemed very sure that at least 40% off the UK, and potentially 60% have been exposed to CV.
I'd never heard that before, also adamant that herd immunity is essential to any move out of lockdown.
Not sure which thread this belongs on, changes to furlough scheme to be announced tomorrow I think there will be some kind of phased reduction in support
Future of furlough scheme to be announced tomorrow
https://f7td5.app.goo.gl/jjrarF
Sent via @updayUK
@kryton - sorry, I seem to have touched a nerve there and don't know why?
very sure that at least 40% off the UK, and potentially 60% have been exposed to CV
I’d never heard that before, also adamant that herd immunity is essential to any move out of lockdown.
There have been lots of people claiming that half or more of the population have been infected. And nothing to really back it up. Other countries are already out of ‘lockdown’, without ‘herd immunity’. I’d take their opinion with a huge pinch of salt… or not even bother checking them out, unless you have time to waste. See back in this thread for debunking of similar claims.
Anyone hear Sunetra Gupta on Radio Scotland just now?. Professor of theoretical epidemiology at Oxford, seemed very sure that at least 40% off the UK, and potentially 60% have been exposed to CV.
Just goes to show even professors of epidemiology can be clueless fools.
Nobeerinthefridge
MemberAnyone hear Sunetra Gupta on Radio Scotland just now?. Professor of theoretical epidemiology at Oxford, seemed very sure that at least 40% off the UK, and potentially 60% have been exposed to CV.
Exposed to, maybe. Exposed to doesn't mean a lot though.
Her team released a study towards the end of March that reckoned as much as 50% of the population had already been infected.
https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b
Doesn't make sense to me, but then IANAE, etc...
Her team released a study towards the end of March that reckoned as much as 50% of the population had already been infected.
An update on that:
Death rate in UK will not increase if lockdown lifted: Prof Gupta of Oxford
Hmm… she makes it clear what she wants to find, she is not claiming that it has been found… but the headline there, again, is just click bait based on the assumption that they will find what she wants them to find. She’s good at PR, I’ll give her that. A good headline generating machine.
Prof Gupta felt the virus was only very virulent in the small vulnerable fraction of the population.
Ahhh… feelings.
What was needed to inform the uncertainty about the true death rate and number of infections was wide ranging serological surveys.
Agreed.
It appears lockdown has now been lifted if you are a traveller/tinker as the local beach area @ Doon bay, kirkcudbright has had the gates removed and the beach toilets opened up by D&G council to allow them to stay.
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There have been lots of people claiming that half or more of the population have been infected.
I don’t think that’s true. Its happened but not “lots”. Are you conflating someone posting a link to such a claim to them actually claiming it? I can only really remember one or two claiming such a thing outright.
People discussing the possibility may have happened more frequently but that’s not really the same thing.
Nor do I think half the UK population has had it. Strikes me as dangerous bllx.
Scotlands ex-CMO claimed about 6 weeks ago {28th March) that 65,000 of Scots had already been infected. Given the R number was higher then, and the doubling rate, that would put it at around 50% by now.
Strikes me as dangerous bllx.
In case I wasn’t clear, I agree.
You’ll soon see how people want to cling to it though, despite there being no basis for it.
So I strongly agree with this line, to put that genie back in the bottle ASAP…
What was needed to inform the uncertainty about the true death rate and number of infections was wide ranging serological surveys.
Looks like all the lunatic conspiracy theories about C19 are being conflated into one, the ‘Palndemic’! Honestly, my faith in humanity has been pretty low for some considerable time, but it’s pretty much reaching its nadir now...
https://www.gq.com/story/plandemic-anti-vaxxer-conspiracy-theory
If only there was a way to find out if we've had it..
Back to work on Monday, we're still not sure how it's all going to work on a tower block with one hoist, no toilets or washing facilities within the buildings perimeter (all the facilities, canteen etc.. are in the block over the road)
Ahhh… feelings.
The preceding para says this:
“ Imperial College assumed the epidemic had only just started as only a few deaths had occurred, and they used a high death rate of 1-2-3%. It is thought they used the data from the yacht Diamond Princess and Chinese studies. This model showed the peak was yet to come. Prof Gupta’s team showed that it was equally plausible that the epidemic had already peaked sometime in mid-March and a number of people had recovered, and deaths were happening with a time-lag of 2-3 weeks from infection; this model showed only 1 in 10,000 deaths and suggested a healthy percentage of herd immunity.”
Selective quoting is pointless when someone can go back & read the article for themselves. She did say she “felt” but put in context of what she believes she’s found.
The last line say this:
“ Prof Gupta’s updated research will be published in the next few weeks.”
So, let’s not lynch her till then yeah....
but the headline there, again, is just click bait based on the assumption that they will find what she wants them to find. She’s good at PR, I’ll give her that. A good headline generating machine.
Some truth in that..
So, let’s not lynch her till then yeah….
My concern isn’t really whether she is right or wrong, but with the consequences of her being wrong and people taking it as a license to change behaviour.
Top experts not asked to approve 'stay alert' coronavirus message
and...
https://twitter.com/ReicherStephen/status/1259517598833795072
I’ve not seen any serology that suggests that level of prevalence. Maybe they now have some data from the oxford ELISA. But out odds at odds with available data from elsewhere. I can’t see past 10-20% and nowhere near herd immunity. So that implies relaxing distancing turns the transmission know back up.
These are the most interesting serological test results I've seen. They're for a cluster centred on a school in l'Oise which is a badly affected part of France:
L'étude révèle que parmi les 661 participants (320 élèves, enseignants et personnels administratifs du lycée et 341 membres des familles de ces lycéens), seuls 171 (25,9 %) ont été infectés par le SARS-CoV-2 et possèdent des anticorps contre ce virus. Cette moyenne diffère selon le type de participants : 41 % des personnes ayant fréquenté le lycée sont infectées (lycéens, enseignants, personnel non enseignant), alors que parmi leurs proches le "taux d’attaque" est de 11 %. Aucun décès n’a été observé dans la population du lycée et 5,3 % des personnes infectées ont été hospitalisées.
So if a known cluster with 26% proven contamination resulted in 5.3% of the infected being hospitalized I find the Oxford study hard to believe. If half the UK poulation had been infected you'd you'd expect 5% of 50% so 2.5% of the populaiton to have ended up in hospital. Bearing in mind that there were very few old people in that l'Oise study so there were no doubt less hopitalisations than you'd get in the population as a whole.
Edit/ The fact 40% of the Lycée serological tests were positive and well over half of the aircraft carrier sailors' live virus tests were psoitive says that the idea that many people are exposed but neither have symptoms nor test positive for the live virus test nor have a serological test is false. There aren't a mass of people who have been exposed and fought off the virus without either symptoms or developing antibodies.
Just goes to show even professors of epidemiology can be clueless fools.
Aye.
Never blindly equate people with academic qualifications/titles with logic or intelligence. As an example a huge percentage of the Government/Cabinet have these and to put it politely it was an education wasted.
“ Prof Gupta’s updated research will be published in the next few weeks.”
So, let’s not lynch her till then yeah….
I would infer from that statement she has an idea that her figures still back up her initial model. Otherwise she would have kept a lower profile.
Watching Hospital on BBC2
As always an insight, this one is particularly scary
Saw an amusing quip shared on social media, can't remember who from, I'm paraphrasing but.. "stay alert, save lives" is the new "gamble responsibly"
These are the most interesting serological test results I’ve seen.
Why are those results more interesting than other serological results?
Is it just me who thinks countrywide movement being permitted isn't a small change. At the moment we seem to have a healthy level of mixing as a result of the VE Day weekend. One might thing the best plan would be to restrict travel to local areas for 2-3 weeks until the impact of VE Day passes. It's going to be shaken up enough by bringing people back into close contact on transport and in the workplace. Two big shake ups before we even get to moving across the country. Seems to be a nice little transmission accumulator building.
I'm also a bit surprised there hasn't been a real push on wash your hands to accompany it. No word on readiness of track, trace and isolate. No strong biosecurity message to accompany big changes in movement. Feels more like everything is being re-set to early March.
Because I found them more interesting, you might not. 🙂
Because until the randomised resutls from on-going tests come out the sample group is the most representative of the public that interests me because Madame is a teacher and it is representative that what could happen to us. I'm not so interested in the serological results from care homes or villages made up mainly of old people.
My offering on the Oxford Prof evidence front basically highlights the open up encourages spread concerns.
I would infer from that statement she has an idea that her figures still back up her initial model. Otherwise she would have kept a lower profile.
theres as much hubris in accademia as anywhere else
but be very interesting to see the data & the accuracy of her test (i think the Roche serological claims 99.8% accuracy)
is there any definitive proof that it confers immunity & how long that might lasts for yet?
would certainly be good to know what the actual infection numbers and on a personal level, love to know if ive had it (asymptomatically)
Led by Donkeys:
The appeasement timeline worth a look not so much for the sentiment just as an annotated summary.
