Right, groundhog day again.
Watching The BBC news and they've just shown an animated graphic of how a cough can spread in a supermarket and suggested that wearing a face covering MIGHT be the answer.
It is the answer, it was the answer and it always will be the answer to people coughing up clouds of the virus in confined public spaces.
Like in France, the government needs to be busy manufacturing 15 million disposable, washable face masks a week and distributing them through chemists to try and help limit the spread of the virus as we begin to open up again.
If the government wants to get the economy moving again it needs to build public confidence. Making face covering mandatory in shops and on public transport would help build that confidence.
I see a few fights breaking out on the tube and in shops where some people follow the government 'recomendations' and others don't.
Otherwise she would have kept a lower profile.
Why? She hasn’t before. She has a theory, and hopes to find evidence to back it up. She has none. All available evidence suggests she is wrong. People want her to be right, which makes her great for generating click bait headlines. Ignore her ‘till she has something.
Because I found them more interesting
Fair enough. I think there is so much information being gathered at the moment, so many unknowns, and the situation is so fast moving that everything is of interest.
I see a few fights breaking out on the tube and in shops where some people follow the government ‘recomendations’ and others don’t.
Do you mean you have actually seen, or you foresee?
inkster - I didn't see the news but was it this graphic from a month ago?
https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/09/animation-shows-single-cough-spread-coronavirus-across-shop-12530656/
Agree the gov *should* have ordered facemasks for distribution to the public; they haven't and won't.
Cost would be miniscule in the context of overall covid spending; would send a message and might encourage the public to continue wearing one into the future - nudge theory in practice.
So, on Monday....gov publication suggests public should wear facemask when shopping or travelling with strangers on public transport; encouraging people back to work from Wednesday; doesn't allow much time to get hold of facemask. Fine if you have sewing m/c and can knock up a few.
Screwfix list 8 pages of facemasks/respirators on their website but none available for click'n'collect.
Just another example of how johnson and his shabby acolytes are utterly useless.
oldagedpredator
SubscriberIs it just me who thinks countrywide movement being permitted isn’t a small change.
No, it's definitely not a small change. It's a smaller change than "go back to work" and the proposals for reopening schools which is why it's got less attention but in a less mad week it'd be a big deal.
Agree the gov *should* have ordered facemasks for distribution to the public; they haven’t and won’t.
Cost would be miniscule in the context of overall covid spending; would send a message and might encourage the public to continue wearing one into the future – nudge theory in practice.
So, on Monday….gov publication suggests public should wear facemask when shopping or travelling with strangers on public transport; encouraging people back to work from Wednesday; doesn’t allow much time to get hold of facemask. Fine if you have sewing m/c and can knock up a few.
ScotGov recommend a "face covering" when in shops, on public transport etc. This could be a buff or a scarf.
Couldn't sleep so just spent a good hour reading the analysis of Boris's clarification of yesterday's non-speech.
As far as I can make out there are so many loopholes and counter-instructions in the new guidelines that anyone can pretty much make it say what they want it to say. What he has said he wants it to say and what it actually says are two totally different things entirely.
So basically my first thoughts on it were pretty much correct: he's cocked it up so badly that the only way to get back in control of it is to go back to lockdown but with more stringent rules like France and Spain had. This will not be popular with the public so he won't do that. That leaves us with a really disruptive cycle of peak/trough/peak/trough of infections as we try and keep the load on the NHS to manageable levels. Of course this will be focussed around the loading according to London levels, the provinces will be left to fend for themselves.
We are in for a long, bumpy ride where what is happening in London, Wales, Scotland and the various bits of England are going to require different approaches at different times. This means a single, easy to understand message is going to be nigh on impossible for the foreseeable future and will risk alienating the public who, on the whole, have been well behaved up to now.
Boris and his team have misjudged this so badly that their previous mistakes have pushed them so far down the current route that they won't admit to any failings and actually do what's needed. The failure to ramp up testing early, cooperate with other countries over PPE, the dithering over the lockdown and to try and go their own way on the app they have pinned so much hope on is still waiting to bite us hard. While no-one has been able to know for certain what direction to take in other countries at least they have made decisive choices. Our route of dithering and delay will cost us in the long term, costs we may not see for upwards of a generation.
We are living and breathing the history our kids and grandkids will be learning in the future.
Long way to go yet.
Today’s FT
Estimates of infection rates vary widely but, according to research by the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) based on figures from European governments, Belgium has the highest percentage of citizens with some degree of potential immunity in Europe: 6.4 per cent of the population has contracted Covid-19. In Italy, the figure is 4.4 per cent, in the UK it is 3.8 per cent and only 0.7 per cent of the population has had the disease in Germany.
In Sweden, where the state epidemiologist estimated 40 per cent of the population would be immune by the end of May, only 2.5 per cent of the population has come into contact with the virus, according to ISPI.
So London is ahead of the rest of the UK in terms of "the peak", which means parts of England could have R at or above 1. It seems the English R is skewed by London. So releasing people from Manchester who might well flood to the lakes without could be mightily dangerous.
reluctant jumper
We are living and breathing the history our kids and grandkids will be learning in the future.
INSERT: ..and dying...
No, it’s definitely not a small change. It’s a smaller change than “go back to work” and the proposals for reopening schools
These changes are still broadly speaking geographically contained.
Ryan Air's Michael O'Leary feeling bullish this morning on flights coming back in July. No distancing on planes. Putting it out there the 2 week quarantine would be un enforceable and most people would break it.
Like in France, the government needs to be busy manufacturing 15 million disposable, washable face masks a week and distributing them through chemists to try and help limit the spread of the virus as we begin to open up again.
If the government wants to get the economy moving again it needs to build public confidence. Making face covering mandatory in shops and on public transport would help build that confidence.
If people make their own masks that chimes with the plucky little Britain we can do it narrative. Remember 2020 when we fought the virus...
According to the newspapers this morning, we just have to use good old-fashioned, British common sense.
Which means we're absolutely screwed...
Hancock on R4 now.
If you ever want to hear what a pointless political career unravelling in a few minutes sounds like, I would recommend a listen.
Nice but dim. You can sense Raab in the wings sharpening his dagger.
Hancock is still of use to them though, taking his daily trouncing so Joris doesn't have to.
If the government wants to get the economy moving again it needs to build public confidence. Making face covering mandatory in shops and on public transport would help build that confidence.
There's a fairly major security issue arising from widespread use of masks. It's not been publicly acknowledged but culturally in the UK, we don't really do well with face coverings (look at portrayal of women wearing burkhas as an example).
You replace one rather intangible threat (catching an invisible virus while sitting on a bus) with a much more tangible threat, the fear of violence/crime while sitting on a bus surrounded by masked individuals. That's not building public confidence at all.
I see we are back to conspiracy theories, scare mongering and selective quoting overnight, none of which helps anybody. Posting opinion of a mass death rate amongst our children does not help people. Also:
Fine if you have sewing m/c and can knock up a few.
Screwfix list 8 pages of facemasks/respirators on their website but none available for click’n’collect.
Just another example of how johnson and his shabby acolytes are utterly useless.
I’m not going to defend the government but you missed off the fact that several sets of instructions regarding how to make a face mask from commonly available materials not all of which need a sewing machine Have been made available, and the fact that proper masks are still a priority for key workers so likely Screwfix will have sold out quickly and can’t get resupply.
Seriously, stop the scare mongering and conjecture and stick to the facts for the sake of everyone’s mental well being, please.
So releasing people from Manchester who might well flood to the lakes without could be mightily dangerous.
Ignoring what people might get up to while they're there, and who or what they might visit, people descending on outdoor areas, especially remotes ones, must be one of the lowest risk activities there is.
I'll condemn the government response as much as anyone else but I'm struggling to understand emphasis on this subject in particular.
Sending people back to work is a far bigger risk.
Opening cafes and bars will be a gigantic step (can you imagine letting drunk people out again?)
Even in crowded spaces, the chance of infection outdoors is minimal.
Nice but dim. You can sense Raab in the wings sharpening his dagger.
You should've heard Raab being dismantled on Radio Scotland yesterday. Was like a drunk child caught in headlights.
Even in crowded spaces, the chance of infection outdoors is minimal.
I think this has been overlooked. Cafes, bars and b&bs are not open so people are within the vastness of the countryside, not even confined to the confines of a city park, so surely more dispersed? Yes, they can take the infection elsewhere but the risk - especially with social distancing being observed - is quite low. I imagine the car parks are the biggest issue.,,
Opening cafes and bars will be a gigantic step (can you imagine letting drunk people out again?)
This.
All the chat I've heard about social distancing and spreading out tables in restaurants and bars will be utterly pointless when pubs are open and folk get a few drinks in them.
Posting opinion of a mass death rate amongst our children
Missed this bit, all I can find is a very low incidence (2/10M or across the population so far according to ONS), but with 2 kids in that age group I like to be informed so I can inform them properly and alleviate their fears.
I imagine the car parks are the biggest issue.,,
It's any pinch point where you get more people. A bit about it in the BMC Covid-19 Recovery Plan. The link to the guidance is within the web page
The British Mounteering Council's Covid Recovery Plan for getting back to the countryside. I imagine many other organisations have submitted similar documents to DEFRA over the past few weeks. The government's announcement still caught organisations like Cumbria Tourism out.
The question is it fair to assume the government has gone further faster than the organisations were recommending?
I thought this posted in the other thread brought a little optimism, on the basis that despite the buffoonery we are performing a lot of the measures / hopefully can stick to <R...
I imagine the car parks are the biggest issue.,,
Even then, I imagine the risks of people congregating in car parks are actually quite tiny.
You have to look at how the virus might spread, and that is more likely to happen on the way there when you go fill up with petrol, or pop into the shop for your picnic, or when you go to the toilet, or perhaps even at the Pay and Display machine.
way fewer cars in these places than in supermarket car parks surely. And when we've had to make a supermarket run, I don't touch other people's cars, and on the one occasion someone was in a car next to us I allowed them to get out and move away before getting out myself. I guess in theory I was breathing the same air as them though, but the chances of them having it x the chances of it being in that airspace from normal breath x the chance of it getting past my natural defences x the chance of that being a effective viral load = miniscule
Even then, I imagine the risks of people congregating in car parks are actually quite tiny.
Especially when the likes of the National Trust & Peak District authority still haven't confirmed if/when they'll be reopening the car parks.
way fewer cars in these places than in supermarket car parks surely.
It's the points where multiple people interact with the same thing - as above - toilets, ticket machines, even first gate. For the touchy bits there's hand washing. Thinking about it for the toilet it would be face masks. The solution is basically a lot of hand cleaning.
The Guardian were running a story lady night that the scientific advisors had not been involved/signed off the new guidance or some such?
I can't find any other source to corroborate that - anyone heard more?
They were both asked this on the presser yesterday. The response was “we fully stand behind the concept of what is being done. Slogans/campaigns are a political issue.”
Kryton - yes I saw that yesterday and really liked it. Hopefully one of our resident scientists can tell us if it is a sensible “Basic Pandemic 101”
Wuhan draws up plans to test all 11 million residents.
In 10 days....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-52629213
Chris Whitty basically said they don't get involved in comms. In other words, what the government tells the public isn't their expertise and doesn't involve them.
Neither of them really confirmed or denied it strictly speaking.
Kryton – yes I saw that yesterday and really liked it. Hopefully one of our resident scientists can tell us if it is a sensible “Basic Pandemic 101”
Indeed, one of the things it did for me that despite all the whataboutery which in the media is mostly negative, it does show that the global activity toward reduction is largely positive.
BBC Scotland have already done a pandemic retrospective pointing out that 2,000 lives could have been saved in Scotland if lockdown had happened 2 weeks earlier.
Advisors advise. Ministers decide.
The basic premise is as follows:
1) A global pathogen was expanding in a fully susceptible population with a doubling time of 2-3 days
2) No treatment options mean that morbidity and mortality would overwhelm healthcare
3) Reduction in rate of new cases can only be achieved by reducing contacts
Those were the facts, the subtleties are for debate:
1) How do we restrict contacts?
2) What is the risk to each age group?
3) What are the economic consequences?
Ministers decided the policy based on predictions based on incomplete science. Once the lockdown decision is made, the next step is to try and balance health and economics. Science does not inform on economics.
As for slogans? "Get Covid done"? 😉
BTW, Although "R" seems to be popular, I view it as a bit of a distraction. What matters is the slope of the cases and deaths curves, globally, nationally and at he regional level. R is a composite measure based on transmissibility and duration of infection. The latter is still poorly understood. The slope of the curve is definitely going down. Doubling and halving times are what matter.
TiRed - are there any glaring errors on that NCASE website Kryton linked to? Obviously not the full picture, but are the general principles it discusses valid for thickies like us?
Hancock on R4 now.
If you ever want to hear what a pointless political career unravelling in a few minutes sounds like, I would recommend a listen.
Nice but dim. You can sense Raab in the wings sharpening his dagger.
Hancock is still of use to them though, taking his daily trouncing so Joris doesn’t have to.
Posted 1 hour ago
True, I was waiting for him to lose his temper again like he did with Nick Robinson a couple of weeks ago. Odious little man.
All the chat I’ve heard about social distancing and spreading out tables in restaurants and bars will be utterly pointless when pubs are open and folk get a few drinks in them.
Absolutely this.
Here in Stockholm, the warmer weather has brought some really irresponsible behaviour out, partially helped by the fatigue of the situation and the desire, I think, to try and have some sort of normality return. Walking the dogs the other day we saw a bar in our local park doing an outdoor grill. I understand that this is a thing that they do, but people were clustered around the bar like flies round shit and even the people on the grass were moving towards it so that they could stay in the sunlight.
People will be people. If there is the slightest hint that they can relax, they will. If they get fatigued, they'll relax.
A different view on resuming economic activity
New York Times opinion piece looking at a part time rota based return.
Interesting. The only problem is areas that require full staff as they are busy.
Just read all the new guidance for schools. Apparently face masks for students and staff not necessary. Yet they are deemed advisable for general public when visiting shops, public transport etc. Hmmmm.
Guidance for 15 students in primary classrooms. Having seen some classrooms that will never give social distancing. We worked out that max number of students in some of our secondary classrooms, meeting 2m rule, was about 6 or 7.
kryton - selective quoting from my post about facemasks; tut tut - the very thing you complain about.
As for Screwfix, their website states 'We are sorry we haven’t got our usual stock available. Please note Screwfix is ringfencing PPE to donate to the NHS for distribution in hospitals, hospices and care homes. We have currently withdrawn from sale selected PPE products until further notice to ensure it is distributed to where it is most in need. Thank you for your patience'.
This does not reflect your interpretation.
You carry on fretting.
Social distancing in Stockholms bars and bars is monitored and if rules are broken they can be forced to close
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/newsbeat-52618788/coronavirus-how-sweden-is-keeping-its-pubs-and-bars-open
