There's a much more obvious explanation of the 6330 unaccounted for excess deaths, makkag. They're the home covid deaths that haven't been recorded as covid deaths. There's underreporting in every area that's bothered to check - Lombardie, Spain, France, are all aware that people are dying of covid but not being recorded as such. The UK isn't any different.
Someone on the bbc news said Boris had sketched the plan with marker pen.
Personally I thought that was over charitable, crayon maybe and the sketch was a few scribbles on a page
>>>red is total deaths so far what 32k plus the blue so I reckon 90k
You bugger, you’ve sussed it already! And here was I trying to bootstrap my confidence limits for the sum from a non-linear mixed effects analysis of England and Wales NHS regions. The plots really are blue and red too 😉
Your guess is in the right ballpark too. But with numbers like this you want to have a bit more confidence.
@tired Out of interest are you factoring in care home deaths to your tail predictions? I think in the general population we don’t have any significant immunity and the epidemic is still in its very early stages, however in care homes unfortunately it is running rampant and sadly in the next month or so I can imagine a lot of care homes residents may be dead or immune. So in this environment herd immunity could force R down (for care homes), so the rate of deaths could drop much faster than in the wider population. As they are the most susceptible to this virus they make up a significant number of reported deaths. The same principle would apply to elderly or sick hospitalised patients.
Edit:- so what I’m saying is once it has burnt itself out in care homes/hospitals I’d expect the overall deaths to come down more quickly, though I expect this will just prompt further lifting of restrictions to replace them.
It’s all in the detail. Or lack of.
And how exactly is the government meant to give detail as to exactly how this is to happen, when it will be different for each business/public transport method and/or area, and so on. Let takes one of those questions:
How are businesses to ensure social distancing?
This could be one or all of the following:
Use of office space to ensure distance between staff
closure of staff resturants/cafes
split shifts
altered rotas
split staff between wfh and office
bring only essential staff back into work
split staff between different offices
and so on...
The solution will be different for every business depending on the number of staff, what they do/sell, how big they are, how big their offices are, many offices, how many staff, ect etc.
No shit the government didn't go into detail about how businesses are meant to do this, this is down to each individual business to decide.
Public Transport. I'm willing to bet that the plan for public transport in London will be very different to the public transport plan for, say, Lincolnshire.
The UK care home population is only about 300 000. The rest of the vulnerable aged people are out there in the community and if the virus isn't contained they'll be exposed to it sooner or later unless they self-isolate indefinitely. Not a happy prospect.
So under current social distancing rules how many people can get in an underground carriage?
How many on a double decker bus?
How many in a railway carriage?
I don't drive so a trip home from Didcot to Weymouth by train could prove a bit tricky...
@tired Out of interest are you factoring in care home deaths to your tail predictions?
Indirectly. There is a nice correlation between reported COVID19 hospital deaths two weeks previous and current all-cause mortality. And the one thing we do know is how many people normally die in any week of the year. Those 6000 extra deaths are people dying at home. Some may have had heart attacks or strokes not seen by A&E, but one thing is certain, they died. It's a statistical model and correlation is not causation, but there is a reasonable expectation that A implies B and A also implies C a bit later. A is not observed. I was surprised it was so predictive, actually.
TallPaul - shouldn’t we be telling businesses exactly what they need to do to stay safe? I’m afraid I don’t share your optimism that all businesses will sort it with the safety of their staff to the fore.
Prescriptive regulations don't tend to work too well because they can't account for all the complexities and vagaries of all types of businesses, hence why they have in the last few years been replaced with more outcome-based regulations. Lots of HSE is like that and also buildings regs. 'Fire regs' as a family of regulations and laws will move even further in that direction soon.
Anyway the real thing was that factory workers & construction workers should go back to work from next, week, but they can’t use public transport & have to maintain social distancing
Nothing has actually changed. Factory work and construction wasn't banned before. Don't go to work unless you have to vs go to work unless you don't have to. The same list of banned work applies, ie those with public gatherings, hospitality and retail mostly.
This is mostly about getting people off furloughing, as obviously it's costing a fortune. The advice is the same but reworded to more positively encourage opening businesses up and no longer have to pay furlough.
Interesting that the unions are against it. Keep staff off work, get paid for doing nothing, unions happy 😉 (that's not entirely serious comment, but...)
How many few of the gov have any recent experience of working in manufacturing or construction environment?
They have absolutely no idea about the practicalities but doesn't stop them from pontificating.
Shysters and gobshites - but we all know that.
Yep. Total cluster funk. Go all out on a new message and branding to make it seem like you've changed as much as possible while actually changing absolutely nothing. Classic Dom & Boz. Its no wonder confusion reigns.
Judging by the response to the announcement on social media the forests are going to be rammed with bikes. No doubt lots of people will be meeting with their normal riding groups too.
I’m staying local for the time being.
Well team Boris still on form for messaging then.
Everyone’s take from it is totally different.
Another success for the clear messaging you require in an emergency.
TallPaul – shouldn’t we be telling businesses exactly what they need to do to stay safe? I’m afraid I don’t share your optimism that all businesses will sort it with the safety of their staff to the fore.
As a business owner, I would really appreciate some clarity and actual rules to follow. The advice given up to now has been so open to interpretation. The safety of my staff is more important than than my business. Without them I have no business. Plus they're, you know, humans that I actually care about. I am happy to stay closed for longer even though we are losing money if that's what is necessary.
Social distancing is virtually impossible in any kind of kitchen unless you're working on your own. Now they are saying 2m distance unless it's not practical. That basically means do it unless it's hard, then don't bother. So do I force them to cover their faces? Should our customers? Surely if they help, they should be mandatory. So tell us! It should not be up to us to make this call.
Watching Boris doing his big important speeches is like watching a comedian play a straight role.
It’s 2m social distancing or ahem ppe, course there’s a bit of an issue with having to say it out loud when your hospitals are still lacking it.
Thing is he doesn’t have to make random stuff up,other countries are ahead of us in this so watch their steps and do what works.
According to R4 "Scotland are refusing to follow" it's ok they've got Swinney in soon to explain the why they won't follow our great leader.
The BBC are slowly changing their headline story on the News website every now and again. It's gone from being really positive to now saying that there a re unanswered questions the PM needs to clarify. Easy to tell as the front page says the story is 4/5/10 minutes old but when you click through its says it's a few hours old.
Just ha f a massive row with a work colleague too. He's of the opinion we should just open everything again as 'the spread has been stopped now'! He genuinely can't see how an increase in movement will make the R figure rise above 1 and we'll quickly be back at the stage of overwhelming the NHS again. His opening words today we're to ask when I was next heading to the bike parks now I can travel to them and spend all day there according to his interpretation of the rules. I then spent a few minutes showing him all the parks social posts saying they were closed and to stay away. He's a reasonably intelligent bloke but he just can't understand why we're being so cagey about letting everyone move about freely again.
TallPaul – shouldn’t we be telling businesses exactly what they need to do to stay safe? I’m afraid I don’t share your optimism that all businesses will sort it with the safety of their staff to the fore.
What to do, yes - how to do it - that's another matter and far too complex for the government to advise on.
Now they are saying 2m distance unless it’s not practical. That basically means do it unless it’s hard, then don’t bother.
In a way - that's not a bad message although hard to swallow and understand. This was never to protect the individual. Your insistence or otherwise to social distance your staff should be nothing to do with protecting them specifically but your contribution to the entire reduction in social interaction in society. By reducing the social interaction in the workplace where practicable by some WHF and bringing in other control measures where it can work and then cutting out the frivolous or luxury interaction like pubs, clubs and restaurants (and throwing government money at those businesses and employees in the meantime so they are still they when we want them again) it allows other businesses and organisations to get moving again.
I know it's a perfectly natural human reaction but too many are making this personal to them and the people immediately around them. We shield the vulnerable and do what we can for the rest of us thinking about the collective interaction rather than specifically.
If I was in charge I would have not changed the conditions about numbers of exercise periods and the picnics and sunbathing nice to haves and reserved the extra risk 'allowance' to allow those pupils chosen to go back to school to do so in a perfectly normal non socially distanced manner.
What to do, yes – how to do it – that’s another matter and far too complex for the government to advise on.
Slightly disingenuous, that.
We used to have posters with pictures of a few examples on for stuff. Those posters actually had carefully picked examples that covered 80% of potential issues Pareto style.
Not actually as difficult as you would make out.
I wouldn't have thought employers are going to rush Furloughed staff back. If they are within the 3 week cycle they then forfeit the payment for that cycle by working. It's really how quickly the employers can do the work to make their workplace safe. Isn't Nissan still a month or so off restarting production?
It is disingenuous for Boris to put the emphasis on employees must get back to work.
If I was in charge I would have not changed the conditions about numbers of exercise periods and the picnics and sunbathing nice to haves and reserved the extra risk ‘allowance’ to allow those pupils chosen to go back to school to do so in a perfectly normal non socially distanced manner.
How do you make those comparisons?
It is disingenuous for Boris to put the emphasis on employees must get back to work.
But it's difficult to point the finger of blame, unless you've passed the buck...
How do you make those comparisons?
Because everything we do from where we are is an increase in risk. Scientist on R4 said so just now. Everything. We have clearly got to the point that a limited increase in risk can be tolerated. It is now up to the powers that be to apportion which elements of 'not normal' to alleviate first reminding ourselves to keep on thinking about collective risk rather than specific risk.
I think you share my opinion that school children can't practicably be socially distanced in school in any meaningful way. Or at best in doing so the benefits of returning to school are pretty marginal. So for me that is where I would channel the extra allowable risk, not allowing more folk to loll around parks where there will be an inevitable increase in interaction.
My only caveat is that I am not a scientist with the numbers in front of me (none of us here are) and someone with better access would need to equate the social interaction increase of one against the other.
Still can't reconcile how allowing countrywide travel is a gradual easing of restrictions.
Does feel a bit like Get Infection Done this morning
So under current social distancing rules how many people can get in an underground carriage?
How many on a double decker bus?
How many in a railway carriage?
I don’t drive so a trip home from Didcot to Weymouth by train could prove a bit tricky…
Approximately speaking from experience
a) 8
b) 15
c) 10
I saw that message as an excuse to get cars on the road aka fuel sales/petrol stations opened.
Raab is busy throwing out clarifications via Sky news this morning. Restaurants and hairdressers closed until July 4 earliest; international - and I suspect this means incoming and therefore outgoing holidays - air travel not expected to be a thing until after August.
Does it allow countrywide travel though? Again, it's vague. Drive to exercise, yes. So hordes of people heading for the beaches. Until someone says "oh, we didn't mean that".
See what this 50 page document thing says, and then how the police decide to interpret it.
What to do, yes – how to do it – that’s another matter and far too complex for the government to advise on.
They need to provide some broad guidelines for businesses to follow.
There's lots of focus on people being allowed out to play, but should people follow the guidelines and avoid meeting other people, the chances of infection are very low. (Given the vague messages, it's likely guidelines will not be strictly adhered to, but that's another story)
The big threat is business re-opening. Particularly where people are cooked up together in confined spaces for several hours each day. And given 2 metres separation is not going to protect people in these environments (and many work places can't even operate like that), especially when they're sharing facilities and perhaps also tools, it's paramount that they have some tenable guidelines to follow.
Boris really is like a child role-playing. Nothing of any substance or worth passes his lips, the man has no interest beyond being the man, and the entire response to the pandemic reflects that.
I'm with tallpaul and convert on this. Very little has actually changed in the immediate term, businesses should be thinking if/how they can operate safely, which they should have been doing all along. If you can't, and if your staff can't safely get there, you don't.
Every workplace is different, the more detailed advice will be out in the next few days.
Our rush to condemn and pick holes because of shit handling of the crisis so far seems to have muddied the message far more than the government did, which is saying something!
Social distancing in the workplace is a bit of a pipe dream, even more so in schools. Convert nailed it above, herd social distancing by keeping bars etc closed, in supermarkets, reducing travel etc. is the only way forward. When other countries started to relax rules it was from a much tighter regime, want to go out and exercise, no chance.
It's going to come back, nothing has changed from pre lockdown, there's a bigger reservoir of virus out there, still low levels of immunity. Germany and South Korea are already seeing it.
Does anyone know how many people who were working are now in lock down because of health issues?
In two streets of neighbours there are several older people who weren’t working, but also some families where one person has a serious health issue so the whole family is staying at home - eg severe MS, child undergoing chemotherapy.
I’m really worried that no one’s thinking about them - current guidance seems to imply the rest of the community will be a bubbling Petri dish of virus just under current levels and it will be a very long time before they can go out. I didn’t hear any support or details of how to manage their situation.
My only caveat is that I am not a scientist with the numbers in front of me (none of us here are) and someone with better access would need to equate the social interaction increase of one against the other.
So in summary, you dont know , waffle experts and stuff?
Not in the slightest! Cases were doubling at a rate of every three days. Three days! There was no community immunity, so from 1000 cases, we’d have seen a million in a month. Even assuming only one in 20 was detected, that would have been 20 million cases by the end of April. Needles to say we are nowhere near that level because the rate slowed dramatically due to social distancing.
Sorry if I wasn't clear. I was responding to your statement that we were trying to avoid getting to a state where 60% had been infected. I wasn't saying that we hadn't done anything to slow the spread of the virus. I said that we had done just enough to prevent the NHS being completely swamped. As I understand it, the plan is to continue to prevent the NHS being swamped, but to relax lockdown as much as possible while doing that. Another way of looking at that is that we intend to run at the maximum rate of infection and hence deaths that can be achieved without overwhelming the ITUs. This will get us to 60% as quickly as possible, with the loss of 1% of those 60%, or 400000 people.
Has there been any Further announcement on what we need to be staying alert from?
Has everyone got their virus under control?
So in summary, you dont know , waffle experts and stuff?
We are all waffle experts and no more. You know this already. I would suggest you either get off the internet and sit in a dark room until this is all over or get over yourself.
Does feel a bit like Get Infection Done this morning
This. Absolute ****ing shambles. Raab on this morning saying that it was OK to go and meet all your friends in the park as long as you observed social distancing. You can drive as far as you like to go for a walk, so if you live in Ambleside, or Hathersage, or Malham, basically **** you.
The only thing that has changed is that it is now pointless for the police to try to enforce the guidance, so at least they don't have to bother.
The comments above about how the messaging has changed and why and what it means... Well that's a fairly good condensed read. Yet another ploy from Dominic Cummings....
R back up to 1.13 in Germany according to Eins Extra. Fingers crossed we can keep it below 1 in France as restrictions are eased.
My only caveat is that I am not a scientist with the numbers in front of me (none of us here are)
No shortage of numbers where I'm sitting and many on here are scientists. We've learned a lot about this virus in the last few months, the problem is how to reconcile what the numbers tell and the practicalities of maintaining economic activty at a level where society doesn't break down either socially or economically.
The objective seems to be to allow the maximum level of activity possible whilst maintaining R below 1. Different countries have different strategies. I'm happy to go along with the strategy adopted by Macron/Edouard Philippe as it seems reasonable, Madame will return to school under the following conditions:
No new cases in the area for about a week I think so we're very much green
Everyone wears a mask, anyone taking it off is sent home
Class sizes have been reduced to around 10 with kids working alternate weeks.
Year groups won't meet each other.
Classroom changes are reduced/eliminated.
Class entries are staggered.
No canteen
Toilets reorganised
Teaching will be done windows open whatever the weather
Teachers can teach outside if they wish - the school has a covered sports area with no sides and a big field
Any troble with kids not respecting the new rules (or old ones for that matter) and they get sent home immediately without passing go.
Just over half the parents have chosen to send their kids to school under the new regime - there's no obligation. However the Internet teaching is much reduced because teachers can't be expected to do both.
Here in Scotland, whilst we are allowed to exercise more than once a day now, it looks like we cannot go for longish rides, unless close to home radius loops...
'Exercise should be done close to home, alone or with members of their household, and people should maintain a two metre (6ft) distance from others.'
@Martin Hutch:
Unleash the people - overwhelm communities - get infection done
We are all waffle experts and no more. You know this already. I would suggest you either get of the internet and sit in a dark room until this is all over or get over yourself.
Hmmm could kill a toasted waffle 🙂
No shortage of numbers where I’m sitting and many on here are scientists.
What I'm saying is I don't think there is a published calculated predicted R number increase of sending kids back in small numbers with an attempt to socially distance, sending them back in small numbers not socially distance and easing of leisure restrictions. I don't have the data to do that calculation myself and I don't think anyone else not in government does either.
