One of them is the death toll.
You really don't want to see the analyses I've been looking at this afternoon 🙁
The next all-cause mortality data comes out on Tuesday for Week 18. I am hoping that this shows a clearly defined peak in excess deaths. I now have a methodology to predict total excess deaths from COVID19 hospital deaths. I will wait until that data before I release the analysis, because at the moment the epidemic tail looks awful. I'm hoping it get's better with that extra week's data!
He didn’t say to go to work tomorrow.
He said go to work next week, thats tomorrow!
How the general public will read this, is another matter – but I don’t see the mass exodus to Snowdown/Cornwall/peak district etc like some seem to think will happen.
I'm not so sure ,
Papers last week said lockdown over by monday
stay home save lives, is no longer official message
Paper
Johnson just said we can drive anywhere for unlimited exercise, parks
Back to work for manufacturing
I think it will be busy, especially if the weather is nice
Thousands of Germans have been marching to protest about the lockdown measures apparently.
5 folk turned up to aberdeens protest at lockdown.
Could have social distances then in a phone box.
. I now have a methodology to predict total excess deaths from COVID19 hospital deaths. I
Its easy you dumbo expert, just add the blue bit to the red bit, red is total deaths so far what 32k plus the blue so I reckon 90k..easy.
I thought it was the Conservative party members that voted Team Boris in. The rest of us are just along for the ride.
It was. Then we had a general election.
red is total deaths so far what 32k plus the blue so I reckon 90k
You bugger, you've sussed it already! And here was I trying to bootstrap my confidence limits for the sum from a non-linear mixed effects analysis of England and Wales NHS regions. The plots really are blue and red too 😉
Your guess is in the right ballpark too. But with numbers like this you want to have a bit more confidence.
Your guess is in the right ballpark too. But with numbers like this you want to have a bit more confidence.
I couldnt understand why they kept showing the graph, it was upsetting me, but I dont think they knew what it showed.
He said go to work next week, thats tomorrow!
...in fairness, IF you can't work from home and IF you can do social distancing at work.
I agree the message is confused and ambiguous, when clarity is what is needed but in the muddle he did include those points. Should be clearer though.
He said go to work next week, thats tomorrow!
But not if it breaks social distancing guidelines.
Same as it has been since lockdown for the vast majority of us.
weeksy, last thursday was the first time in two weeks johnson contacted the devolved leaders to discuss.
I would say he's made no effort to achieve consensus and agree on common messaging.
He is so far out of his depth.
If I was feeling extremely generous to him and very pissed I *might* say johnson is a PM for the good times; I am neither of those and we are not in good times.
Taking one of his comments about going out for a drive; if a neighbour of mine in Lincoln drove to, let's say, Ambleside on Thursday he could correctly say '...PM said I could go out'; residents and police in the Lakes would rightly say...go home; response....I'm staying alert; johnson said it was OK; what's the problem?
That would be a very simple example of confusion resulting from unclear messaging.
On my ITU we are at the point of contracting in; having a number of CV19 patients, but well able to cope. The concern is about any second wave; we can't keep all our excess capacity without affecting the work of the rest of the hospital. The other low level grumbling issue is staffing; working in full PPE is taking its toll and no one is keen to continue.
The thing that seems to be not understood by the general public is that things are just the same as they were; no cure, no vaccine, no guarantee. The only thing we have done is slow the spread, and as lockdown frays around the edges that will only get worse.
It's the end of Ramadan, Eid, towards the end of the month. I hope things will be better.
I’d assume in simple terms, they disagreed. But he’s the boss so he gets the final say for ‘us’
Assume nothing, he never even shared his new slogan with the other leaders.
Hes inept, has been in every job he's ever had.
But not if it breaks social distancing guidelines.
What are the guidlines? Does the office worker assessment them from home tonight
That’s down to employers. Good luck!
Why 'only' 90k?
I thought the mortality rate was 1% and that they were 'it would not matter if you had the entire NHS looking after that one patient they would still die'.
1% of 60% of 65m is a lot more than 90k.
Genuinely not twisting anyone's tail for the hell of it, but what is there to suggest mortality is closer to 0.25%?
The exercise thing is a worry, but if people can maintain social distancing then it's not so bad
What does it mean for a trip to the beach?
Anyway the real thing was that factory workers & construction workers should go back to work from next, week, but they can't use public transport & have to maintain social distancing
That's putting lot of responsibility on bosses to say whether blue collar workers will be in
White collar keyboard warriors like many of us get to stay safe at home tho...
Why ‘only’ 90k?
I guessed it from the graph Boris kept showing.
I did like the fact that we've had 32k deaths and its not reached 5 yet!!!
Message here in Wales is still stay home and save lives.
Wales is closed, for the time being,your'e more than welcome,to come back,as soon as it's safe to do so.
All the trail centres are closed, with no access to the trails,the entrances have been blocked off, with large concrete blocks,also access to the main mountains are also barriered off.
I would advice against visiting,no trail checks or maintenance are being carried out,so if you have an accident,the emergency services would find it difficult, to get access,to help you. The Police are still doing stop checks, on most the main roads,as well as beauty and tourist spots. I live near Coed y Brenin,and if i see people taking the piss,i'll also report you to the Police.
Stay home,save lives!
I thought the mortality rate was 1% and that they were ‘it would not matter if you had the entire NHS looking after that one patient they would still die’.
1% of 60% of 65m is a lot more than 90k.
Genuinely not twisting anyone’s tail for the hell of it, but what is there to suggest mortality is closer to 0.25%?
I last asked this about a week ago. No-one answered.
It was. Then we had a general election.
Ah of course the Conservatives don't change leaders mid term.
There is a difference between Team Boris and the party. I will give you the members only actually elected Boris. Perhaps reassured by the MPs who admitted he had a rough edges but they would be alongside with one hand on the wheel when Boris was in the seat. Don't think anyone elected Cummings and his carnival of the unusual. The cuckoo in the nest who threw the other advisors out as soon as he could. Issuing an ultimatum to Javid on ditch your advisors or you go in the run up to the pandemic. You have to marvel that Boris thought it was a good idea.
At the moment getting rid of Boris isn't your or my decision. It's the party and that creates the rather interesting East Sussex Conundrum. Keep Boris but sacrifice the membership who are, demographically speaking, front and centre in the target group for suffering due to their age.
The members might be getting twitchy with freedom to drive being on the cards. Nice trip to Eastbourne...
Eye opening tweet detailing how s.Korea do it
https://twitter.com/michaelvkim/status/1258987354934538248?s=20
My brother in law just visited his terminally ill dad, he's in the navy so now has to go back & spend 2 weeks not leaving his room at a base in Bahrain (he's in the navy)
I thought the mortality rate was 1% and that they were ‘it would not matter if you had the entire NHS looking after that one patient they would still die’.
1% of 60% of 65m is a lot more than 90k.
Genuinely not twisting anyone’s tail for the hell of it, but what is there to suggest mortality is closer to 0.25%?
The answer is that we would not WANT to infect 60% of 65m by controlling the spread through lockdown. Hence the fatality rate is reasonable, but the prevalence is absolute worst case in the absence of any control measure. With control measures, one would hope for a LOT less deaths.
Of course for the LONG game (years) we might one day reach endemic infection with 60% past infection prevalence, like influenza, with mortality perhaps also like influenza (about 20k deaths per year). We would, however prefer to not get there in less than one year!
The thoughts of Cumbria Tourism
We are shocked by the timing and short notice of tonight's announcement. We are awaiting further details but the safety of residents must come first. For now, tourism businesses in Cumbria remain closed and we urge everyone to continue to #StayHome.
I've just watched Boris again. It still sounds like a child trying to explain an overly complicated dream they've had
...like a child trying to explain...
Might explain why he wasn't sitting at the big desk.
As tired said, if we spread out the infections it reduces the additional excess deaths. Probably wouldn't reduce the total covid deaths over time but it would definitely reduce the excess deaths. The fact that a&e is empty at the moment is partly down to the usual idiots not going but also down to some really sick people not going and potentially dying from causes that would in normal times be prevented.
a fully exposed population at one time to covid wouldn't just increase deaths from the virus but most causes (excepting some like car accidents)
Brexit Britain can't afford pensions, treating the sick, or supplementing the idle. They're pulling the plaster off. It's a gift for them, this. It's going to make the miner's dispute look like amateur hour.
Hence the fatality rate is reasonable, but the prevalence is absolute worst case in the absence of any control measure.
We've done this before. Worst case, without any control measures, is 4-5% because the hospitals get overwhelmed. Keeping it to 1% requires control measures to ensure that that doesn't happen.
The answer is that we would not WANT to infect 60% of 65m by controlling the spread through lockdown.
But that isn't that exactly what we are doing? We are locking down enough to ensure that the ITUs don't get overwhelmed. Eventually we will get to 60%. In fact, if 1% is right, we are already at 5% infected, so another 24 months at this rate and we'll get to 60. OK, I know that's simplistic as the rate will decline as there is more immunity in the population, but my bet is that they will play with the degree of lockdown to keep the rate pretty constant. I think the factor most likely to make them re-think this approach is burnout among ITU staff.
This amused me with the general message confusion going stemming from the PM's delivery.
On the how would you have done it better - maybe gone for this on the colour key for the five point scale.
White collar keyboard warriors like many of us get to stay safe at home tho…
Us holiday and hospitality workers are still in limbo. 14 days quarantine for arrivals kills all incoming tourism, a similar restriction kills all outgoing. Domestically without pubs and cafés open who is going on holiday in UK? Why travel to isolate in a remote area where you will be less welcome to the locals?
The race between the "economic super powers" has begun, those that get their population back to work quickest have the chance to remain economic super powers, but they also risk a second wave making the Spanish Flu one look minuscule.
Sorry I only work to the Old El Paso Scale - it's going has to have super tasty next to extra mild.
On first watch the speech came across ok, but on review there was zero detail. It’s like he spent 20 minutes in Costa on his much publicised morning walk scribbling a few bullet points on a napkin.
My job as a professional pilot is all about Risk Management, briefing not just what to do, but the details of HOW to do it.
HOW do we ensure safe distancing on public transport? What do I/driver/conductor do if too many people try & get on my train? What can we do on the train to stay safe!
How are businesses to ensure social distancing? What happens if you have school age children at home?
It’s all in the detail. Or lack of.
The German protests are not to be taken seriously. It's a mix of extreme right, anti-vaccin, conspiracy theorists... in tiny numbers. While the other 80 or so million get on with life following the guidelines. Germany has a problem with the extreme right who use any excuse to provoke. People know that and won't join the idiots.
50 in Nûrberg
50 in Würzburg
20 in Kempten
1000 in Berlin
300-500 in Stuttgart...
I oddly took a look a total death number due to something someone posted on another place
Ive gone wk 1 -17 (as that's where the current ONS Data ends for 2020)
2014-19 Total average deaths Wk1-17 195,648
2020 Total Deaths WK1-17 229,308 with 27,330 attributed to CV 19 on death Cert
2014-19 Average is 195,648
+27,330 CV19 cases
= 222,978
Leaving 6330 cases above average by week 17
Seem a lot to me is this down to people not wanting or getting access to treatment. Mental health, drugs, etc - as you would have thought RTA's etc would have been down.
Perhaps someone with a broader understanding than just this small data set could offer an opinion
It’s all in the detail. Or lack of.
That's why I'm stuck between Boris being at 0 or 1 on the I Can Scale
HOW do we ensure safe distancing on public transport? What do I/driver/conductor do if too many people try & get on my train? What can we do on the train to stay safe!
Shut the doors. But there won't be too many people getting on the train because only the appropriate number of tickets have been sold, and you need an "attestation" from your employer or a good reason to travel you attest to yourself (on paper or with an app on a phone and you'll have your ID card of course), and the seats you can sit in are marked so you won't be too close, and they won't let you in the station without a mask, and everywhere you go is way marked and spaced - well that's how the SNCF are managing deconfinement in France.
Anywhere you may be at less than one metre you have to wear a mask, simple.
Whilst out earlier in my area (kirkcudbright D&G) on the bike i cycled past the local beach (Doon beach on way to brighouse bay holiday park) and there appears to be a camp of "cough"travellers"cough", 3 humoungus caravans, pick ups/flatbeds, two cars and a large mobile home and the usual assorted moto x bikes/quads etc..etc tearing around the grassy area - i dunno how they got access to the area as it has been padlocked up but i guess they must have cut the large steel gate from its hinges as its lying on its side. I counted 13 kids and a dozen adults/all set up with awnings/tents/barbecues etc making the most of the empty beach and leaving rubbish lying around everywhere and a huge fire, from what I've heard they have been there all weekend yet nothing has been done to remove them?. Turns out (from the jungle drums around the town) that a few of the local farmers may/may not take a trip down there tonight with slurry tankers and take a drive through the site, our area could be headline news by tomorrow
But that isn’t that exactly what we are doing?
Not in the slightest! Cases were doubling at a rate of every three days. Three days! There was no community immunity, so from 1000 cases, we’d have seen a million in a month. Even assuming only one in 20 was detected, that would have been 20 million cases by the end of April. Needles to say we are nowhere near that level because the rate slowed dramatically due to social distancing.
We have a whole government, civil service and departments of experts to plan/organise/run this, and that’s the sum total of the plan.
Edukator- somebody in France has actually organised a system then and briefed you on it. We have no idea how it will work. The tories DNA won’t let them interfere in the running of private companies, so we will just prevaricate and fudge.
The detail will be published tomorrow in a 50 page document.
Think I'll wait 24 hours rather than wish he'd read the details out tonight.
