How shit must their lives be that, at the first opportunity, they migrate to KFC for an infusion of grease and reconstituted chicken bits made from mechanically recovered slurry?
While I appreciate the sentiment, pretty sure that Frank hasn't eaten there recently, that would make KFCs bored libel lawyers day! 😄
BBC News - Coronavirus: Is it time to free the healthy from restrictions?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52543692
The problem isn’t the code as such - you could reproduce the main results with a 10 line model - the problem was their use of it, which led than to say the epidemic was still a couple of months ago right up to late March. Other modelling was just about as bad.
If we could protect them - and that would require very good access to quick testing and protective equipment - the researchers believe we could lift many restrictions and allow a "controlled" epidemic in the general population.
From that Beeb article /\/\
There’s a word for this, can’t quite grasp it, I want to say H something.
Besides, protecting the vulnerable doesn’t appear to be a safely achievable objective at the minute.
Not just in the U.K. either. Have Italy and Spain started including care home deaths yet? I’ve not looked for a while. Or Sweden for that matter.
Apparently the Neil Ferguson model was not very good. Any of the IT bods on here have any comment on this.
Source: AI Fintech CTO (my tech foundation being in software engineering)
Leaving aside that the title of the blog indicates a possible source of bias...the criticism of the code is pretty much what any software engineer would say about any code written by a data scientist / analyst / some kind of non engineer boffin.
It's not very good in the sense that it's not scalable or readable, but perfectly fine in the sense that it could yield useful and plausable predictions. Most of my AI models my teams create start life as a codebase like this. The models that are useful will then be restructured and tidied up with the help of an engineer. Similiar to how drawings by architects get redone by detailed design engineers. But given this code is just for academic noodling there'd be no point.
And if you think that the spreadsheets that run all your favorite big business / economies are any different you'd be dissapointed.
For anyone interested but doesn’t use the Covid19 Sympton Tracker
Webinar on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCa09am-cOsC-FSgr_nLkFFA?view_as=subscriber
5pm today
Couple of previous webinar already up by the looks of it. I’ve not watched to know if there any good.
Interesting, from that bbc article:
Having seen the papers headlines today, we are going to see a crap load of people out and about.
"lockdown freedom beckons" is a particular lowlight"
I've just read the Scottish Government report on why and when schools will return.
It has a rather interesting graph showing predictions that a pre summer return could lead to a chunky second wave of cases in July. To return in August, combined with restrictions and restraint over the summer, sees a much, much smaller second wave in September, before seasonal flu kicks off.
Having seen the papers headlines today, we are going to see a crap load of people out and about.
“lockdown freedom beckons” is a particular lowlight”
Once again, policy is being shaped by leaking it to the populist press rather than formal government address.
The Government continues to treat everything like a PR exercise, not the health emergency that it is. A few days worth of 'good' front pages are more important for than facts and considered scrutiny and cross-Parliament support.
The UK isn't in a position to properly assess anything and none of the provisions to accompany easing of lockdown are in place. It's a quick-win populist "I'm the PM that brought us out of lockdown!" moment for Boris.
Just checked our latest infection and death figures, as frankly they haven't been in the news in recent days.
Anyone else think that anything other than a tiny tweak in the lockdown rules next week could be another mistimed disaster?
despite what Maggie said there is such a thing as society.
Too bloody right. We, as parents, have been showing that one needs to look out for the neighbours since our two were small. We did this to prove the old witch wrong and will continue until either the virus gets me or old age.
"They are casting their problems at society. And, you know, there's no such thing as society. There are individual men and women and there are families. And no government can do anything except through people, and people must look after themselves first. It is our duty to look after ourselves and then, also, to look after our neighbours."
So in many ways you are also proving her right? Plenty of people seem to take this quote out of context or maybe I just read it differently to everyone else.
Anyone else think that anything other than a tiny tweak in the lockdown rules next week could be another mistimed disaster?
Yep, as a complete non expert the numbers dont look to have dropped enough.
Also seems like Boris is kind of going off on his own with this one without discussing with the devolved governments.
So up here we have Sturgeon essentially saying "another three weeks of lockdown", then a day later Boris says "things change on Monday" - and it seems they haven't told Sturgeon and Drakeford what will change*
*probably because Boris doesn't know as it wasn't planned, wasn't following any scientific advice and he got flustered in PMQs and just blurted something out.
Anyone else think that anything other than a tiny tweak in the lockdown rules next week could be another mistimed disaster?
I'm not sure 1 week from now or 8 weeks from now will make it any better or worse. It will just move the next set of deaths further along (or not). I don't think it's about the removal date, but more about HOW it's done and what people then decide is sensible.
Whilst i may jump on my KTM for a quick ride, i won't be changing much else, i'll still be distancing and home shopping even if they say "go for it, do what you like"... However many many people won't be.
So in many ways you are also proving her right? Plenty of people seem to take this quote out of context or maybe I just read it differently to everyone else.
Not sure what it has to do with Corona Virus, but yeah, you're right and people commonly misunderstand that quote.
Same with Gove's quote about experts, few people are aware of the remainder of the sentence.
Transmissible strain of CV story debunked:
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/coronavirus-strains-transmissible/611239/
Lots of good CV stories on The Atlantic, I haven't read them yet but its coverage of other topics has been superb.
I’m not sure 1 week from now or 8 weeks from now will make it any better or worse
Well presumably in 8 weeks virus level will have dropped much more so any uptick in infection rates would mean we can still maintain low hospitalisation rates and maybe let the nhs doing some other vital work. If R ticks up from monday and we are still at around 600 daily deaths we'll be back up to 1000 in a few weeks.
Boris is basically Trump with some Latin phrases.
Always in campaign mode, always winging it.
*More* transmissible, obvs.
Have to agree this 'leak' just before a non-rainy bank holiday is going to be a disaster! It was sunny here yesterday and there was a lot of non-cohabiting groups milling around. This will just be taken as an excuse to do what the hell they like.
Lockdown might as well be over.
it never really started?
In terms of only being outdoors for exercise (not BBQ's, sunbathing), not driving anywhere unless an essential journey (driving to exercise still frowned upon here in Wales) and social distancing just not being observed.
Anyone else think that anything other than a tiny tweak in the lockdown rules next week could be another mistimed disaster?
Absolutely. It's almost like they want to give us a fortnight of relative freedom before locking us all down again when the death rate jumps up again.
Also seems like Boris is kind of going off on his own with this one without discussing with the devolved governments.
I'm fully expecting Wales to not lift any restrictions as our numbers have been steady but still high for a while now, no real decline from the peak. Hospitals are still near capacity on Covid wards to the extent that there's little staff available for the routine stuff like my dad's ongoing cancer treatment. A small spike would be all it would take to overwhelm things.
Have to agree this ‘leak’ just before a non-rainy bank holiday is going to be a disaster! It was sunny here yesterday and there was a lot of non-cohabiting groups milling around. This will just be taken as an excuse to do what the hell they like.
It's almost like they've done it to make the VE Day Bank Holiday memorable!
At worst all I want to hear announced is that a few choice businesses can reopen, ones that can keep to social distancing measures and won't be flooded with people. Like car dealerships, sofa shops. The trouble is once one business has been allowed then others will fight their cases to open too and we'll then have the bored hoardes out shopping all day as per normal. Delay with the current rules is what we need.
But I’m fully expecting leaks, quotes from ‘sources’ in the papers, and planned ‘loose lips’ apparently off the cuff comments in interviews to be used to start things off from tomorrow night onwards… people will be nudged out of the current arrangements, not given a clear path out. If it goes wrong then, it won’t be because of top line government advice… it’ll be the public ‘misunderstanding’ and the government can just repeat ‘existing’ messages, rather than having to officially roll back on any ‘end of lock down’ announcements.
This is most disgraceful aspect of this - they are effectively releasing people to change their behaviours en masse at the start of a hot Bank Holiday Weekend. Even more so, since the forecast for Sunday and Monday is much colder. People will just assume that it is OK for them to travel because they have read some leak about the end of lockdown in the Daily Mail.
Our current approach to this virus doesn't seem to be working that well maybe it's time to try something different, yes I know there have been some cases of seemingly young healthy people dying of covid but by and large it's the older less healthy that are dying in their thousands, should we be making a bigger effort to shield them from the virus and let the young and healthy get on with their lives, the level of fear surrounding this virus seems disproportionate.
This BBC article is the latest that I have read/seen that is suggesting this
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52543692
I’m not sure 1 week from now or 8 weeks from now will make it any better or worse
FFS
I’m not sure 1 week from now or 8 weeks from now will make it any better or worse
FFS
I thought that particularly ****ing stupid, too. Those headlines obviously work on some people.
...it’s the older less healthy that are dying in their thousands, should we be making a bigger effort to shield them from the virus and let the young and healthy get on with their lives, the level of fear surrounding this virus seems disproportionate.
If my parents and their friends are anything to go by you'll have a near-impossible job of keeping the elderly and at-risk indoors while everyone else is out and about.
The only real change that I have seen suggested is to allow people to be outside for longer,we're not going to be allowed to go shopping/pub/cinema etc so how is this going to be a disaster? we will still be expected to maintain social distancing and the chance of transmission of covid outside is very small
Look at the headline on the Sun!! FFS they'll be out in thier droves, the sheer idiocy of our media - and ignorance of over 30,00 dead - is unreal.
And what happened to the rest of Adele?
Govt Twitter Feed.
Notice how the hashtag has subtly changed already. No #stayathome any more.
The Sun etc won't have published those headlines unless they've had the nod that all that is happening. Once again we're entering another potentially catastrophic situation that has Dominic Cummings mucky fingerprints all over it.
There seems to be an attitude within the government that their present number 2 position on deaths just isn't good enough
They clearly want the top spot
Look at the headline on the Sun!! FFS they’ll be out in thier droves, the sheer idiocy of our media – and ignorance of over 30,00 dead – is unreal.
It’s not quite that bad Kryters......calm down a touch..
My 16 year old came in from his paper round this morning wondering how much of the disaster of this pandemic is down to the government and press playing Chinese Whispers (no pun or insult intended) with stupid headlines with no context or detail.
If it's obvious to a hormonally challenged 16 year old lad......
It’s not quite that bad Kryters……calm down a touch..
I think it *is* that bad - it's Government policy by right wing/tabloid press which is never good but it's also not media "idiocy". They know exactly what they're doing.
Avoiding holding the Government to account, distracting from the records that we have the worst death rate in Europe, that the PPE the Government ordered from Turkey and had flown in by the heroic RAF is not fit for purpose, putting on a brave British blitz spirit kind of front and then no doubt working out how to blame a second spike in death rates on immigrants, gays, cyclists and Remainers.
It’s not quite that bad Kryters
How is not that bad? Even identified C19 death (rather than much larger excess deaths) will soon be greater than the number of people who died in the Blitz*, and the deaths continue to pile up here in a way they are not in many comparable countries, and the government are using leaks and off record briefings to nudge people into ignoring of even their own weak public advice and preparing to absolve themselves of blame if the consequences are poor.
*there’s one for the papers obsessed with war time comparisons
irresponsible to have the headlines NOW though, before the BH, as everybody will just be out anyway now over the whole BH weekend (the same way as the numpties speed up in their cars when they can see the speed limit sign, rather than when they pass it 😂)
It IS that bad because I had to use Google to find an up to date report of our daily death numbers, because none of the mainstream media has got that daily figure front and centre.
I would love it if the devolved governments refused to go along with any premature relaxation of the rules (I accept we are all currently judging the government on something that hasn't been announced and we "might" be wrong) because it "might" force the government to answer some challenging questions for once.
blame a second spike in death rates on immigrants, gays, cyclists and Remainers.
🤣
How is not that bad? Even identified C19 death (rather than much larger excess deaths) will soon be greater than the number of people who died in the Blitz*, and the government are using leaks and off record briefings to nudge people into ignoring their own public advice.
Not ignoring the numbers in any way. There’s an awful lot of very fearful folk who will continue to social distance regardless of the what the Gov/media says. Indeed, some reports have stated there may well be a problem getting people out again as the message has been so effective. See reports of cyclists being attacked for spreading the virus when there’s no proof that this is the case.
There’s a lot of fear out there - justified & otherwise.
Personally, I’m not expecting anything groundbreaking at all. It’d be nice to see my girlfriend again & hold her (I’ve been on my own since lockdown so I’m feeling kind of low), it’d be nice to get out of town & ride somewhere with quieter roads.....but I don’t hold out a lot of hope for either before the end of May - at the earliest..
I suspect the govt strategy is still relying on an element of herd immunity
+1.
I’m not sure 1 week from now or 8 weeks from now will make it any better or worse
Lifting now will nudge the R0 towards 1, so we will effectively lock in the current infection/death rate. We'll just plateau at 6-700 deaths/day.
We should be trying to minimise the area under the curve and if anything tighten the lockdown further to get the infection right down (or at least wait it out a few more weeks). Then when we lift a little and the R0 goes toward 1, we'll hopefully be plateauing at a much lower number of deaths/day.
I suspect the govt strategy is still relying on an element of herd immunity, if they can get even 20% infected then it will help get the R0 down a bit lower and mean they can lift a bit more. Don't think they'd admit to that though.
I would love it if the devolved governments refused to go along with any premature relaxation of the rules
Scottish MSM will highlight Boris over Nicola.
Yoons and BritNats will ignore ScotGov advice, with some comments about "pretend parliaments" and "control freakery".
UK Govt will signal the end of the furlough scheme, leaving businesses and individuals little choice*
* I read a comment that the furlough scheme only pays out full months, so folk would get nothing for, say, June even if it ended on 27th June. Is this correct, or more fake news?
“Premature relaxing of the rules”
What benchmark are we using here for “premature”
Lifting now will nudge the R0 towards 1, so we will effectively lock in the current infection/death rate. We’ll just plateau at 6-700 deaths/day.
Spending a bit more time outdoors while keeping a reasonable distance is one of the lowest impact changes you could make to current guidance. Let's see what the new guidance is - if it's "Sure it's fine to drive to an AirBNB in the Lakes from Kent" that's (IMO) too much of a free reign. If it's "Stay local but you can spend more time outside" that's (IMO) reasonable. Policing either is going to be a nightmare, but that's already true with current guidance.
The problem isn’t the code as such – you could reproduce the main results with a 10 line model – the problem was their use of it, which led than to say the epidemic was still a couple of months ago right up to late March. Other modelling was just about as bad.
Here I completely agree. Parametric models will necessarily give poor answers with the wrong parameters. My early analysis were not based on models for exactly this reasons because it seems obvious that during the epidemic phase you can't know them (only combinations of them).
Now onto behaviours. I always say that Media and Social Media are not real life. I have an intrinsic and unshakable belief in the reasonableness of the majority. Those are the ones you don't hear about on FB and Twitter that accept things, get on and don't make a lot of noise. That's the 80% of the 80/20.
If it’s obvious to a hormonally challenged 16 year old lad……
Case proven 🙂
I welcome some relaxation, sitting in the park is not unreasonable. Standing on a crowded 08:20 to Waterloo is where transmission is going to be maintained. Don't expect mass gatherings just yet.
Happy VE Day. But we have not won yet.
