Let’s see what the new guidance is
Missing the point that behaviour is being nudged to change for this weekend, ahead of any new “guidance”.
Those are the ones you don’t hear about on FB and Twitter that accept things, get on and don’t make a lot of noise.
Most of the concerns expressed in recent posts have nothing to do with Social Media, and everything to do with the messaging in traditional media and their news websites. That will inform behaviour far more than social media chatter.
Our lockdown is being eased on Monday which for us means Madame returns to school with a mask, small classes to be taught outside if she wishes, a 100km range on our MTbs (but no club riding), still no pool 🙁 , all of the shops I normally use open but only takeaways from restaurants. Wherever we go it's possible to stay 2m away from people (we don't need to use public transport).
It seems reasonable given what's been learnt and achieved since 17/3. People have learned new habits and tricks, they're being very sensible in these parts (where we have negative excess mortality). The verdict on masks is that they reduce the viral dose the wearer gets and reduce the virus emitted by the infected so they're being generalised. The hospitals now have empty beds except for a few places in the north and east which will reamin partially locked down.
Treatment of severe case has evolved and they're saving a higher proportion. The immune response is being managed, less invasive methods of getting people oxygen being proved effective. Complications are anticipated and better managed. Various treatements are under trial, some with encouraging results but still no date for a vaccin.
The most vulnerabel are being protected in that they don't have to go work and can isolate or are being isolated, ironically it was the medical visits that were often the source of infection in homes so the carers have become more vigilant to the point of living in in some homes. It's under control and protecting the vulnerable/elderly from the rest of the community is proving both possible and effective.
So it's not back to normal, it's the start of a new normal that may be normal for some time to come. So when your media talk about the end of lockdown in France bear in mind that's it's roughly what lockdown equates to the in the UK now and if there's an end to UK lockdown it'l be a good deal looser than anything you are hearing about as an "end of lockdown" in Belgium, France, Spain or Italy.
But yes, it's time to end lockdown, it's time to adopt a new style of social interaction that takes into account the risks which although small to the majority are very real to those who suffer/die.
Agree with purist
Graham Brady - The head of the 1922 committee, who actually run the Tory party, has just been interviewed on Five Live.
Be under no illusions, their priorities are to get the economy up and running again. They want everyone back at work ASAP. In true Tory style its instructive what their own personal priorities are. He wants the garden centres and golf courses open first.
He's also trotting out Joris Bohnsons line yesterday that the statistics in deaths are meaningless. As Kier Starmer pointed out at PMQ's that it is the government itself that has been publishing their own statistics
He’s also trotting out Joris Bohnsons line yesterday that the statistics in deaths are meaningless.
Even though nobody ever said that ...
Another opinion on the Imperial code release:
https://twitter.com/ID_AA_Carmack/status/1254872368763277313
Just disgusted at the whole media and government. No other words, really.
In true Tory style its instructive what their own personal priorities are. He wants the garden centres and golf courses open first.
Come off it - the logic for opening such venues is that the risk of transmission is deemed acceptable. People of all walks of life visit garden centres & play golf. Not every club is Wentworth after all - municipal courses?
(Disclaimer: no love for golfists, a good walk spoiled by spending 99% of your time in the brambles looking for your ball!)
Same with Gove’s quote about experts, few people are aware of the remainder of the sentence.
Yeah
I think the people in this country have had enough of experts with organisations from acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong.
Whoa OOB that's a bit harsh on SAGE 😜
And you have to put the full quite in context, Give was defending the £350m a week claim, which the IFS said was 'misleading'
But Therin lies the danger , everyone remembers the first part of the quote (& even tho gove was factually wrong at the time). And in a culture war, it's not long before all experts become the enemies of the people
I think the government is disappointed with the public. They built all those Nightingale hospitals and the British public just wouldn't do the right thing and die in sufficient numbers. The government hates waste. Operating with unused capacity goes against the principles of a lean, just in time economy
I think that answers a previous question on here about when the Nightingale hospitals will be stood down. The answer, it seems may be never.
What the government seem completely oblivious to is the attrition rate of the NHS staff. Anyone watch the C4 documentary on Covid wards that was on last night? If the numbers don't start to decrease for a significant period, the staff will crack. This gov't of cowards loves their military analogies, perhaps they should ask some generals how long it's feasible to keep troops in the front line before they have to be replaced by reserves. Then they should look at what NHS staff reserves they have and perhaps make any decisions about reopening based on that.
The government will tell you that the NHS system didn't get overwhelmed. A system needs people to operate it. You can have all the guns and ammo in the world but you need the personnel fit and available to use it.
Yeah the problem is going to be people getting together for BBQs etc and enjoying themselves as if lockdown is I've then Boris popping up after the weekend to say don't overdo it you can just go out a little bit more. Then in three weeks the figures go back up again, hopefully papers get sued for such reckless headlines.
Some (possibly) interesting figures on excess deaths here.
Oh and I agree with many above - it IS as bad as that.
Govt Twitter Feed.
Notice how the hashtag has subtly changed already. No #stayathome any more.
It says #StayHomeSaveLives
hopefully papers get sued for such reckless headlines.
Fat chance.
They're just repeating the government leaks.
In the common style of every dictatorship.
Dr J
Whoever said it or not, I think we should let Stalin be the judge;
'One death is a tragedy, a million deaths is a statistic
(cue responses saying Stalin never actually said that)
I have an intrinsic and unshakable belief in the reasonableness of the majority. Those are the ones you don’t hear about on FB and Twitter that accept things, get on and don’t make a lot of noise. That’s the 80% of the 80/20.
Quite. The problem is when the goodwill of those 80% is taken advantage of.
In true Tory style its instructive what their own personal priorities are.
I imagine that the first ones to be sent over the top will be factory workers who are essential for creating wealth. The Donkeys will be lounging back waiting for the money to start rolling in
the British public just wouldn’t do the right thing and die in sufficient numbers.
Sure they did, but they did so conveniently behind closed doors, in their own homes or in the care homes they were shovelled out to.
Strong message from The Lake District National Park today
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-6663743397532057600-V7Ms
Sure they did, but they did so conveniently behind closed doors, in their own homes or in the care homes they were shovelled out to.
This. Out of sight, out of mind and most importantly out of the numbers. Until such time as the numbers could conveniently be hidden behind a wall of sex story (Prof Lockdown gets his trousers down) and "wahey, we can soon come out of lockdown!" headlines.
Rather telling that another reason the Nightingale hospitals weren't used to anything like capacity was because there were no staff to run them. Chronic shortages of trained nurses means you can put all the beds you want there but if there's no-one to look after patients, you can't use them.
Tell you what - if I'd made 4000 beds and they weren't used, I'd be freakin' hacked off!! Straightening my duvet is already a majot chore 🙁
It says #StayHomeSaveLives
They've edited it, it just said #savelivesprotectNHS when I checked! Hopefully it's just someone with dicky fingers not them changing it as public opinion changes.
Tell you what – if I’d made 4000 beds and they weren’t used, I’d be freakin’ hacked off!!
It served a publicity purpose at the time.
Shame that publicity was "look we built a massive hospital in 9 days" rather than "oh shit, we had to build a massive hospital because we failed miserably to implement testing or quarantine or lockdown".
Building that capacity was an essential part of being prepared for this emergency. It was one thing they got right.
I hope the lifting is nothing to do with this worrying statistic.
Worryingly plays into the anti-immigrant stance of a lot of people. There must be something that makes those of a different colour more susceptible to it.
Part of the reason they need to get people back to work is that the furloguh scheme has been massively abused. Through the grapevine I've heard of lots of companies furloughing staff but still getting them to work, even not telling them they were furloughed in the first place. I hope there is a thorough investigation into this as it has jeopordised the support for people who need it.
Not that this defends the government of course..
Building that capacity was an essential part of being prepared for this emergency.
They could've just requisitioned an IKEA - loads of beds and no nurses. Same end result. Plus meatballs.
Now I want meatballs.
This is a great paper for those who fancy some science instead of politics
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20061440v1
The basic premise is that about a third of antibody negative healthy donors have pre-existing immune cells that may provide some immunity. These cells could possibly have been generated by previous coronavirus infection (two common colds). Hence should one be subsequently infected with SARS-COV-2, if you have pre-existing cross-reactive immune cells, you could have a milder infection.
It does NOT argue that a third of healthy people have had the infection.
Ferrals makes a very strong point. Hard for the scheme to be extended when companies are using it pay the wages of staff that they are still asking to work (albeit from home). But that is ultimately the government’s fault… making it an “all or nothing” scheme that did not help companies cope with their workforce only being able to do, say, less than half their normal work… with the government only paying 40-50% of their wages, rather than 80%. Companies are taking any help offered in money form from the government, while also trying to make sure they’re able to ramp back up later… which is harder to do if staff haven’t been involved with work for months. I’m not excusing the abuse, and I don’t personally know of any companies abusing the system, just pointing out that is an inevitable result of the way the financial help from the government has been made available.
The UEA press release goes on:
[Researchers] found that closing schools, prohibiting mass gatherings and the closure of some non-essential business, particularly in the hospitality sector, were the most effective at stopping the spread of the disease.
Enforcing the wearing of face masks in public was not found to make additional impact.
This works for me...
hopefully papers get sued for such reckless headlines.
They all seem to be citing un named government sources. These are escaping from under the iron fist Cummings. The noted hater of unsanctioned briefings has information getting out and about - either he's off form or it's a not so subtle attempt to crack the lock down.
You'd have thought they one thing the government would be trying to avoid was mixed and messy messages pre-bank holiday. Forget five tests it could just turn into opening by turning fear of virus into fear of missing out.
Just for mischief:
Anyone got odds for us trying to beat Germany to first football match? Or maybe just the easing of restrictions enabling team Boris to get more of the backing band in place for next PMQs?
This works for me…
Unless it’s rated to stop the virus passing through the mask filter it’s not a valid example of how it would work.
The piss still needs to be escaping but the radius would be reduced. A bit like getting splashback of a urinal!
Tired - that paper is interesting, it implies that the n terminus of the spike is more varied from the other coronavirus species than the c terminus.
I wonder if that might indicate a target for a more generic coronavirus vaccine, would be nice to have one that protects against the pandemic and a snotty nose
Fair enough, but on a basic level for the rationale for wearing a precautionary face mask when shopping for instance (as per Scot Gov advice) it works for me.
Works for me too tbh
They’ve edited it, it just said #savelivesprotectNHS when I checked! Hopefully it’s just someone with dicky fingers not them changing it as public opinion changes.
Just pointed out to me that in the Guardian today it says
"Government Twitter accounts meanwhile began broadcasting a new, more nuanced message on Wednesday – “Stay Safe, Save Lives” – with the stark “Stay Home, Save Lives” slogan set to be ditched".
Oh and in other Guardian news UK contact-tracing app could fall foul of privacy law, government told
Tired, during the exponential growth phase, all that matters (with urgency) is the growth rate, and that was tightly constrained to a doubling time of 3 days by a mountain of data from across Europe including the UK. Whereas the models used 5 days. Baffled as to how they could make such an elementary - and hugely important - mistake.
Remember when Vallance was saying we were 4 weeks behind Italy, and everyone who could read a graph was saying "huh? 2 weeks, more like"? Uncalibrated models. Remember when Johnson said we would see the numbers would accelerate to a 5-6 day doubling unless we took action, and everyone was saying "it's already 3 days, dummy"? Uncalibrated models.
Whoa OOB that’s a bit harsh on SAGE
Indeed, and people *are* being harsh on SAGE. That's why the Gove quote was fresh in my mind. Look a this thread ^^^^^^. Experts from these organisations are despised because they are "the government".
Ditto NHSX.
Prof Neil Ferguson too. General consensus was that it was (I quote) "good" that he had gone. [1] FFS, he was the guy that came up with the 500k estimate that directly lead to the UK lockdown.
We really need to treat these organisations with a bit of respect and stop dismissing them on totally fictional grounds. Apart from anything else how do you recruit good people if you treat them this way? Nobody with talent is going to want to replace Whitty, Vallance or Ferguson in this climate.
[1] "The only good thing you can say about Ferguson is that at least he fell on his sword straight away when he was caught."
Tired, during the exponential growth phase, all that matters (with urgency) is the growth rate, and that was tightly constrained to a doubling time of 3 days by a mountain of data from across Europe including the UK. Whereas the models used 5 days. Baffled as to how they could make such an elementary – and hugely important – mistake.
Remember when Vallance was saying we were 4 weeks behind Italy, and everyone who could read a graph was saying “huh? 2 weeks, more like”? Uncalibrated models. Remember when Johnson said we would see the numbers would accelerate to a 5-6 day doubling unless we took action, and everyone was saying “it’s already 3 days, dummy”? Uncalibrated models.
Thanks for your contribution, I don't know enough to be able to check the working in all your posts but different views are always welcome and interesting!
] “The only good thing you can say about Ferguson is that at least he fell on his sword straight away when he was caught.”
Considering the flack experts been getting,wonder if he's not too sad to have a way out
Especially with government ministers hiding behind 'we're just following scientific advice' defense when the decisions they've made look questionable
Also seems a bit unfair , considering the way cv went through johnson, cummings, whitty, ferguson, hancock, seems like they thought social distancing didn't apply to themselves either
Fair enough, but on a basic level for the rationale for wearing a precautionary face mask when shopping for instance (as per Scot Gov advice) it works for me.
Two issues with facemasks. One is the security one, especially in shops / on public transport. It will lead to an increase in shoplifting/pickpocketing/bag snatching etc and possibly also harassment (especially harassment of non-wearers).
The second is that PPE is only as good as the person using it. Poorly fitted masks, non-standard masks, badly handled/stored masks, non-compliant masks....
It's an image thing. You'll have people wandering around shops in dust masks, folded up newspaper, bandanas, scarves, probably some idiot in a full on respirator... None of it will make the slightest difference in fact, worn badly, it's worse than no PPE.
Same with cycle helmets, you get people wearing a badly fitted helmet topped right back on their head and wobbling around. That's doing **** all to protect the head in a fall and could actually make things worse but it's given the person an unrealistic sense of protection.
Major and meaningful lockdown release on sunday - unlikely.
There are far too many people who are scared to go out, think lockdown should be stricter, say they wont send their kids to school without a vaccine and so on.
The seeds of "get lockdown done" need to be sown, so when it does happen (hopefully at the correctly calculated time), most of us want it.
Whether Cummings has told the papers to do this or he's just done some leaks knowing how they react is anyone's guess.
He may be an unprincipled mercenary who's current paymasters I am opposed to politically - but he is a genius and he always gets what he wants.
Baffled as to how they could make such an elementary – and hugely important – mistake
Not all of us made that mistake 😉 , but I am in complete agreement (see my preprint). My statistical analysis of all global rebased data showed that the epidemic was growing faster in the UK than elsewhere. As I said, it was too early for parametric modelling at that point in the epidemic. Poor assumptions and inestimable parameters.
Remember when Vallance was saying...
I remember when he stopped saying it. I have a good idea why.
We really need to treat these organisations with a bit of respect
Publish their findings, and then we can engage with them. If we just get a select and carefully framed view of their advice, through gov spokespeople, then that doesn’t deserve respect beyond that which the government does. We only know who “SAGE” actually are now, thanks to some pushy journalism. Secret, cherry picked, politically driven and spun advice is hard to have respect for. Sorry. Not the fault of the majority of members, but the result of how this government chooses to work. And the same goes for the non-transparent way they have chosen their private sector partners to run testing centres and capture and analyse contact data. No respect for closed, secret government, especially when claiming to act on “The Science” and advice of “Experts”, when the data and people involved are hidden from us.
