alternative SAGE committee which will broadcast on YT.
Yeah, I'm looking forward to that. Hopefully lots of detail.
After 3 1/2 years of brexishambles, the inability to manage this should be no surprise to anyone.
Pretty much where I am with this.
What has been surprising is the allowance of the media to let them hide behind scientists
If the media had held them to proper account for Brexit, they might have got the virus thing right.
*Reports epicyclo*
Bottom line is if you’re at home and think you are dying of covid don’t go to a UK hospital because you’re statistically more likely to die!
I'm planning to avoid funeral homes or crematoria - even worse survival stats for their customers.
Sad to hear that Piers Morgan (leader of the opposition) is off being isolated.
The curve has been flattened very well, people have stuck with lockdown far better than government believed we would.
You do realise 28k people have died dont you? The curve has indeed flattened but its just a shame the government let it rise so high in the first place. Had they acted sooner and better 10's of thousands of lives could have potentially been saved. Germany has had about 20k less deaths so far.
Does anyone have links to the more medium term effects to those infected?
That would be my question as well. It's been quite interesting to see the shift in narrative to the continued health cost of restrictions. No one seems to be mentioning the impacts of infection. Short term might be days / weeks off work or reduced productivity. Coming back after that are you down for 2 - 3 - 4 plus months, more?
Still on the numbers - London is seeing a major drop in numbers relative to the rest of the UK. What are the main drivers on this? Is the improved air quality a factor? What happens when we re-start and the pollution levels increase? This might have already been covered by I've stepped away from reading for a couple of weeks.
I have watched a couple of the evening media briefings - marvelled at how the government managed to move the goals at both ends of the pitch last week. Hopefully someone will ask Boris on Thursday how many of the posted tests have been returned. I also get the feeling Enemy of the People is back in play as game of choice for anyone daring to challenge the numbers or push for accountability. Where as Brexit seemed to be very much Jam tomorrow Covid seems to be accountability tomorrow. The game that seems to have come out over the weekend is Chicken Licken - kind of like chicken but it's all about the threat. Unleash the OAPs or they will riot. Seems to be classic Cummings. I wonder if the Shadow Sage will appoint it's own arm chair expert to throw a spanner in the works.
London is seeing a major drop in numbers relative to the rest of the UK. What are the main drivers on this?
Epidemics follow based on lags due to the time needed for transmission to get going. Italy was ahead of the UK, London ahead of the regions. The closer to London the closer the peak to London. Some areas could be two weeks behind (or more). Lifting the restrictions has to take this into consideration.
Germany has had about 20k less deaths so far
To be fair, Germany acted on a similar time scale to the UK with regards to lockdown, however I would content that behaviors in Germany led to reduced very early transmission, and they are seeing the benefits of that now. Small changes early on# can easily explain large (exponential) differences later. It wasn't due to testing, because Germany was not testing at the start of the epidemic.
#A 25% increase in transmission amplified over 6 doubling times is 400% - that's the difference between UK and German deaths.
Still on the numbers – London is seeing a major drop in numbers relative to the rest of the UK. What are the main drivers on this?
It was much higher so can drop more quickly? Also the regions were locked sooner in there infection cycle hence the much lower numbers, thus proving how the delay impacted the country as a whole.
Lifting the restrictions has to take this into consideration.
By delaying nationwide lifting or unlocking London sooner?
I’m reminded of “the most punchable face in politics”.
Face of the Day & a punchbag...
To be fair, Germany acted on a similar time scale to the UK with regards to lockdown, however I would content that behaviors in Germany led to reduced very early transmission
This is why we need a bit of rigorousmulti variate analysis done (if such a thing exists!!) to try and nail down what these things were.
Indeed, but Germany does not have a culture of struggling into work if "feeling under the weather". I strongly believe that it will be little things subject to large amplification. Everyone wants to look at the obvious (testing), but they weren't. But they did have early advice.
Don't know if this has been done already on here, or if it is worthy of a thread of its own...
But what does STW think of phone based apps for 'contact tracing'?
My initial and unclouded thought would be 'obviously an excellent use of the available technology'.
But then two words spring to mind:
Cambridge Analytica
Then another three words:
"No ****ing way".
This current lot simply cannot be trusted with that kind of power voluntarily given.
Sorry, but it is a 'no' from me.
But what does STW think of phone based apps for ‘contact tracing’?
In Apple and Google I trust.
To be fair, Germany acted on a similar time scale to the UK with regards to lockdown, however I would content that behaviors in Germany led to reduced very early transmission, and they are seeing the benefits of that now. Small changes early on# can easily explain large (exponential) differences later. It wasn’t due to testing, because Germany was not testing at the start of the epidemic.
I'd be really interested in why the Eastern European countries have done so much better than the Western European Countries. It's not proximity because Russia is doing badly. The only article I can find on it is behind a paywall.
Indeed, but Germany does not have a culture of struggling into work if “feeling under the weather”. I strongly believe that it will be little things subject to large amplification
If so this should have been where uk gov should have been focussed. From Feb, March we should have been advising people to stay away from work if ill etc and given people backing to do this. I had colleges in with coughs the day before the school shut down ffs.
I'm sure the data would be a modeller's dream, even with the Covid proximity alert side of things put aside. It tells you how people are moving, how many people they are encountering on their day to day, what difference each stage of lockdown is making to this. Like a Strava heatmap on steroids.
But it is at this point that the government will find out how misusing personal data for political ends comes back to bite you on the ass a few years down the track.
...Germany does not have a culture of struggling into work if “feeling under the weather.
I had wondered if that was an issue. Once I stopped work and started furlough I noticed I improved more but that could also have been due to time from start of symptoms. It's been interesting to read the stuff on the impact on blood oxygen - hence wondering about impact of air pollution.
How are you feeling TiRed?
But what does STW think of phone based apps for ‘contact tracing’?
My initial and unclouded thought would be ‘obviously an excellent use of the available technology’.
But then two words spring to mind:
Cambridge Analytica
Then another three words:
“No **** way”.
I’ll install it on a burner.
I’d be really interested in why the Eastern European countries have done so much better than the Western Countries.
I would imagine much less travel in from infected areas and then the were able to lock down "sooner" on the back of what went on in Italy etc.
But what does STW think of phone based apps for ‘contact tracing’?
Cant wait for a few kids at school to input that they have symptoms leading to school shutting down quick smart due to lack of staff!
But what does STW think of phone based apps for ‘contact tracing’?
A decentralised one that is not compulsory and can be deleted at some point in the future, I'm happy with.
A centralized compulsory government one - I would be morally opposed to and hate it. Might bite my tongue and accept it temporarily if it ended the current miserable situation.
I’ll install it on a burner.
Could I install on an old phone with no sim, I wonder. It appears to work on location and Bluetooth, which don't need a sim, I think...?
Don’t know if this has been done already on here, or if it is worthy of a thread of its own…
But what does STW think of phone based apps for ‘contact tracing’?
My initial and unclouded thought would be ‘obviously an excellent use of the available technology’.
But then two words spring to mind:
Cambridge Analytica
Then another three words:
“No **** way”.
This current lot simply cannot be trusted with that kind of power voluntarily given.
Sorry, but it is a ‘no’ from me.
If it’s an app that can be downloaded simply download to a device with the bare minimum, if any, of personal data on it? I know that’s not workable for everyone & I don’t like the idea of a tracing app much either but for different reasons (Bluetooth isn’t that secure) a bog standard FitBit might be a workaround..
Might be?
Cant wait for a few kids at school to input that they have symptoms leading to school shutting down quick smart due to lack of staff!
surely your app would only inform your contacts when you test positive, not because any prankster, agitator or hypochondriac sneezes.
Could I install on an old phone with no sim, I wonder. It appears to work on location and Bluetooth, which don’t need a sim, I think…?
It must need some way of contacting you to dispatch you to your Covid-approved lockdown bunker when it turns out you've been contaminated. I'm guessing text, as this seems to be the favoured NHS method.
I would be surprised if there wasn't some built in capacity to send your movement data back to base via mobile data or wifi.
But it is at this point that the government will find out how misusing personal data for political ends comes back to bite you on the ass a few years down the track.
That is basically 'it' for me. They cannot be trusted, simple as. It has been demonstrated by their own misuse of personal data for political ends.
I’ll install it on a burner.
That was my initial thought too.
I would imagine much less travel in from infected areas and then the were able to lock down “sooner” on the back of what went on in Italy etc.
That sounds plausible. So when we're comparing the UK to other Western European Nations we need to factor 'travel' in.
Belgium/Netherlands were hard hit (proximity to Schiphol?) the Uk has been hard hit. (Heathrow - busiest Airport in Europe, second busiest airport in the World.) New York got a pasting - JFK? (High population densities in some of those places too.)
Meanwhile, New Zealand has nipped it in the bud.
'Travel' could well be a factor we need to take into account when comparing countries.
Could I install on an old phone with no sim, I wonder. It appears to work on location and Bluetooth, which don’t need a sim, I think…?
it needs to connect to the internet at some point (not necessarily constantly) to either upload your movements, or receive a list of contagious people, depending on the system used.
The chinese one you have to show you're clear by showing your phone to people, I'd guess you would need it to be a functioning phone to avoid suspicion - cheap PAYG sim?
Many people carry 2 phones - one work one personal
surely your app would only inform your contacts when you test positive
Thats not how it was described on the news last night and given the lack of testing for anyone not a keyworker I cant see how that would work.
That sounds plausible. So when we’re comparing the UK to other Western European Nations we need to factor ‘travel’ in.
Indeed, but in holding our govs to account it seems that if you andcI can postulate these theories, proper experts should have been telling gov in advance and then developing country specific responses before the shit hit the fan. IE act dont wait to react.
surely your app would only inform your contacts when you test positive
It’s people you’ve been in proximity to who’ve tested positive I.e. in contact with - not your own personal diary of contacts. At least that’s how I understand it. It’s also done anonymously.
it needs to connect to the internet at some point (not necessarily constantly) to either upload your movements, or receive a list of contagious people, depending on the system used.
I was hoping the WiFi at home would suffice - guess we'll have to wait and find out more about the app first...
I’d be really interested in why the Eastern European countries have done so much better than the Western European Countries.
There may also be a difference in social culture. I was chatting to a mate who moved from the UK to Sweden last year - he married. Swedish lass - and he said one thing that really struck him was the number of unwritten rules the Swedes were happy to obey just in the course of their day-to-day existence. He reckoned this meant that although there's no strict formal lockdown, adherence to the basic priniples of social distancing and responsible behaviour in the main was the norm.
Shops have perspex shields to protect staff, restaurant tables are spaced to minimise contact, there are no mass events etc. Shops do 'one in, one out' for customers and people understand about protecting the more vulnerable.
Life there, he says, is very much not as normal, but the government trusts the population to behave responsibly and by and large they are doing so, at least in his experience.
By way of contrast, our government clearly doesn't trust the general population further than it can nudge it. In their heads the slightest hint of relaxation will lead to widespread flouting of the lockdown etc. In reality I suspect the problem for many is going to be coaxing people back into a more normal life rather than them being desperate to do just that.
This confirms what I saw on news last night.
Using Bluetooth, the free smartphone app will track when its users come into contact with each other, automating the tracing process.
If a user develops coronavirus symptoms, the disclosure could trigger an anonymous alert to users with whom they have recently had contact, enabling those people to go into quarantine or be tested.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52521526
How will it work with neighbours? The app would show the phones could be within a metre of each other for a number of hours but there is a solid wall between them.
Be interesting to see how it will impact healthcare staff; a number of my colleagues have tested positive; should we all stay at home for a week or two?
That being the case - a burner or similar should suffice to keep your data safe.
How will it work with neighbours? The app would show the phones could be within a metre of each other for a number of hours but there is a solid wall between them.
Turn it off when at home?....
Thats not how it was described on the news last night and given the lack of testing for anyone not a keyworker I cant see how that would work.
dumbed down for TV news? they have to explain apps to baby boomers in 30 seconds. "telling it you're infected" could be an over simplification.
To my mind it needs available and quick turnaround testing. Person one gets ill (and should then be sitting at home until they know one way or the other), they find out within a day or two that they are positive, phone app informs everybody from the past few days (tier two people) that they have been in contact with.
All these people then get tested (no self quarantine yet as they have no symptoms). they find out if they are positive, if they are, they then self isolate (even if assymtomatic).
the key is getting two rounds of "go to test centre, recieve result" in less than the amount of time it takes for a tier two person to get to the super shedding stage. Is this four/five days?
So when the tier two person informs the app they are positive, all of their contacts (tier 3) get tested too, but are hopefully negative because tier 2 person got caught early before they were shedding. that transmission path then ends with the tier 2 people, rather than growing exponentially.
On the app - burner phone was my thought. Given Cummings love of data I cant see them being able to keep their hands out of the privacy cookie jar. If it is a Cummings heavy project I suspect a round of Enemy of the People will be played to crack people who refuse to participate.
Just in terms of work phones - could we be in a situation where the employer insists it goes onto the phone? I could see all civil servants being pushed into it. Possibly local government.
Aside from privacy / accuracy concerns - the others are: mischief (the school kids theory) and criminal activity (intimidation and extortion). There is also a question of if the government will also hide behind it and blame the population if things go awry and a second peak pops up. That's just by jaded view of Team Boris being serial avoiders of accountability.
It’s people you’ve been in proximity to who’ve tested positive I.e. in contact with – not your own personal diary of contacts. At least that’s how I understand it. It’s also done anonymously.
yep - I meant contacts as in determined by the app people you have been near. Not the entire content of my phonebook. I'm sure people ive not met in years, and dominos pizza have no need for the information that I am corona positive.
burner phone was my thought
What difference is that going to make when you are going to have to install an app and give it your details so they can tie test results back to you?
Either way, a mobile app really isn't going to save us.
Turn it off when at home?…
Wont it always be passively collecting data though? Otherwise people aren't going to turn on an app when they leave the house.
if you meant Bluetooth I use it at home all the time so turning of isn't an option.
Otherwise people aren’t going to turn on an app when they leave the house.
Is that really too much of an ask?..
Indeed, but in holding our govs to account it seems that if you andcI can postulate these theories, proper experts should have been telling gov in advance and then developing country specific responses before the shit hit the fan. IE act dont wait to react.
Why country specific responses? If we're going to say that each country should have predicted how this was going to pan out and individually shut down borders and Airports in mid Jan/first Feb why not say the whole world should have seen where this was headed and shut down travel from China in Early Jan. That would have been a vastly less damaging response.
...and if we should have done it this time why not Ebola and SARs? We had no idea Ebola and SARs impact on the developed West was going to be so limited so the prudent thing to do was to shut our Travel infrastructure down then too.
Yes, in the UK Nigel Farage was on LBC calling for UK Airports to close very early on, but most people at the time felt the economic disadvantage of that outweighed the risk.
I don't think these events are as foreseeable as they seem in hindsight.
dumbed down for TV news? they have to explain apps to baby boomers in 30 seconds. “telling it you’re infected” could be an over simplification.
To my mind it needs available and quick turnaround testing.
We dont have the testing capacity, have you missed the news for the last 2 months?
Is that really too much of an ask?..
Yeh - people struggle to remember wallets etc let alone turning on an app. Could ring fence it based on home wifi I guess or a privacy setting at home based on GPS location.
Not the entire content of my phonebook. I’m sure people ive not met in years, and dominos pizza have no need for the information that I am corona positive.
Nice bit of sarcasm - really useful, thanks.
