Just in terms of work phones – could we be in a situation where the employer insists it goes onto the phone? I could see all civil servants being pushed into it. Possibly local government.
depends what the company does I guess - if they pile everyone into an office daily then I can see that they would want to keep infection away, but conversely, people who work on their own but in public they might want to avoid something that sees people being enforced on sick leave.
BIL's previous company tracked company cars (not secretly). He had to fire someone for not going to work.
Why country specific responses?
Because different population behave differently.
If we’re going to say that each country should have predicted how this was going to pan out and individually shut down borders and Airports in mid Jan/first Feb
But thats not what I said.
Screening and quaranteen from imcoming flights, public education about not going to work even slightly ill are all options that could have been used. Ramp up testing capacity in advance dont wait till its obviously too late, increase tracking and tracing early rather than wait until its overwhelmed in a week to start. All these things could have had a massive impact as Tired has shown.
Nice bit of sarcasm – really useful, thanks.
sorry, didn't mean to be an arse. You'd pointed out the ambiguity of my and other's use of "phone contacts". While you clearly understood what was meant, that you needed to point it out implies you thought other people wouldn't.
Wont it always be passively collecting data though? Otherwise people aren’t going to turn on an app when they leave the house.
if you meant Bluetooth I use it at home all the time so turning of isn’t an option.
The apps use Bluetooth LE. This is also used for advertising beacons and when you tap on a speaker to pair it etc.
Doesn't use GPS, isn't tracking your location, doesn't need your phone contacts. However the UK app is not using the Apple/Google distributed design, so data is stored centrally and thought to be personally identifiable.
The way I described the way it works to the family was...
Imagine everyone was carrying around a bag of raffle tickets. Every time you meet someone (for a defined time/distance) you both secretly swap a ticket and keep the stub.
When somebody tests positive, that person's raffle ticket numbers are broadcast out and anybody with a match is flagged as a contact. You have no idea who the person was who tested positive, or who else has been contacted. In theory, you can do secondary/tertiary/etc. contacts but not sure if this is practical.
Someone mentioned walls - it's tuned to whatever the BLE signal strength is for the 2m (or whatever they decide on) with no obstructions. So getting a contact logged through a wall/ceiling is unlikely.
What difference is that going to make when you are going to have to install an app and give it your details so they can tie test results back to you?
It's less about being to tie it back to me and more about what else it's extracting at the same time. I'm starting from some of Team Boris not being able to keep their hands out of the personal data cookie jar. No doubt any requests to evaluate the app independently and review what is collected will be blocked with commercial sensitivities and now its not the time / accountability tomorrow.
Either way, a mobile app really isn’t going to save us.
I'm sceptical - it's a nice warm techie announcement in the sprit of land armies and ventilator building.
How are the Google / Android versions going?
We dont have the testing capacity, have you missed the news for the last 2 months?
dont yet. nor do we have an app.
As i said above, the tests need to be available, quick, and able to detect eh virus early and in assymtomatic people; otherwise it is utterly pointless, as you would just get symptomatic confirmed cases self isolating, which doesn't require the app at all.
Screening and quaranteen from imcoming flights, public education about not going to work even slightly ill are all options that could have been used. Ramp up testing capacity in advance dont wait till its obviously too late, increase tracking and tracing early rather than wait until its overwhelmed in a week to start. All these things could have had a massive impact as Tired has shown.
If you're going to quarantine every arrival for 14 days you might as well close the airports. Very few people are going to travel somewhere if it's 14 day before they can go out.
If you say test instead of quarantine then testing every arrival is more tests than we have *NOW* those test would be much better used on NHS staff. Plus there's a few day lag on each test, so you're still talking about a few days in quarantine for everyone. Who's going to come? Almost nobody, you might as well close the Airport.
Back in Jan that just wasn't practical.
In hindsight we know the world could have nipped this in the bud in Jan,but that is pure hindsight, the conventional view was to keep things going.
Doesn’t use GPS, isn’t tracking your location, doesn’t need your phone contacts. However the UK app is not using the Apple/Google distributed design, so data is stored centrally and thought to be personally identifiable.
If the government is also using it for outbreak tracking / hot spot identification then it would send gps data back? Patterns of ticket buying can be identified?
How are the Google / Android versions going?
It’s irrelevant if UK gov isn’t using it.
I would be happy to use an app that used the official OS APIs, that are open and transparent on how they work. A government back door closed app is going no where near any of my hardware. Ever.
If you’re going to quarantine every arrival for 14 days you might as well close the airports
Its not hard to understand if you try and link the two words I used together, screen and quarantine.
the conventional view was to keep things going.
And we have got to 5x more deaths than Germany. If you are happy with that, good we can agree to differ.
If the government is also using it for outbreak tracking / hot spot identification then it would send gps data back? Patterns of ticket buying can be identified?
No, not from the designs I've seen (although until we see the UK app T&Cs who knows). The health service has people's addresses anyway that they can use to map positive tests, I would have thought having GPS location tracking of any contact would guarantee zero takeup and make it a non-starter.
dont yet. nor do we have an app.
The app is being testing on Isle of Wight (see Kryters I do learn) this week. It is NOT based on testing but is based on symptoms.
So there must be some Isle of Wight residents here - what permissions does the (Android) app ask for when you install it? That'll clear up whether it's using location info or not.
The app is being testing on Isle of Wight (see Kryters I do learn) this week. It is NOT based on testing but is based on symptoms.
My misunderstanding then. I thought that the point of using the small and contained IOW as a test run was that they could have the per capita testing required, to see if it was a viable strategy.
magine everyone was carrying around a bag of raffle tickets. Every time you meet someone (for a defined time/distance) you both secretly swap a ticket and keep the stub.
Shittiest raffle prize ever!
Thanks for the explanation. I can't see how anyone will be able to resist harvesting the underlying contact data, as it has a direct bearing on evaluating lockdown efficacy and predicting R0.
The hope would be that they would be sensible and anonymise the data, but the issue comes when some bright spark thinks it sufficiently useful to link your NHS Number into the mix, either to push app uptake in the first place, or to examine differences in contacts involving those members of the public labelled as vulnerable.
Hands/cookie jar, as above. Lots of apparently trivial incremental 'enhancements' to the app which add up to a patchwork which misuses the data.
but the issue comes when some bright spark thinks it sufficiently useful to link your NHS Number into the mix
I have a feeling this is why we've rejected the Apple/Google design. I reckon you give your NHS number as part of the enrolment, so you are identifiable and your contact/medical data utilised.
It is NOT based on testing but is based on symptoms.
I think currently the UK has conducted about 1.2 million tests with about 186k positives. So loads more people get the symptoms than actually have the virus.
If the app is just based on people telling it they have symptoms, won't it just end up in a huge chunk of the country being forced into quarantine on the off-chance they might have been exposed? (rather than having definitely been exposed).
the conventional view was to keep things going.
And we have got to 5x more deaths than Germany. If you are happy with that, good we can agree to differ.
I meant the conventional world view, not the conventional UK view.
If you're talking specifically about the UK then yes, there were people saying we should close down airports - Farage was calling for early closure of UK airports on LBC.
(All of this is assuming 'travel' is a factor, which is your hypothesis, not mine.)
If the app is just based on people telling it they have symptoms, won’t it just end up in a huge chunk of the country being forced into quarantine on the off-chance they might have been exposed? (rather than having definitely been exposed).
Many will be able to get tested and released. But yes.
If you’re talking specifically about the UK then yes, there were people saying we should close down airports –
True, but closing down airports was not what I suggested, if you wish to engage in a discussion, read what I wrote, if not just ignore me.
If the app is just based on people telling it they have symptoms, won’t it just end up in a huge chunk of the country being forced into quarantine on the off-chance they might have been exposed? (rather than having definitely been exposed).
so there is no benefit to it, only downsides (for the individual).
does this mean it needs to be compulsory (or compulsory if you want to do certain things) to get enough people to download it? (for benefit of the population as a whole)
so there is no benefit to it, only downsides (for the individual)
Only if you think being informed and not potentially spreading to others arent positive things.
If the app is just based on people telling it they have symptoms, won’t it just end up in a huge chunk of the country being forced into quarantine on the off-chance they might have been exposed? (rather than having definitely been exposed).
so there is no benefit to it, only downsides (for the individual).
does this mean it needs to be compulsory (or compulsory if you want to do certain things) to get enough people to download it? (for benefit of the population as a whole)
Think we're getting confused. The app can't just be a symptom-checker. We had that already on the NHS web site, and that's not contact tracing.
What is key though is what we do when a contact is notified. Do you just get told to stay indoors for 14 days and look for symptoms/phone 111, or do you isolate and a test gets sent in the post to you with an expedited result?
Hopefully, we're planning on eventually having the infrastructure to do the latter.
Just in terms of work phones – could we be in a situation where the employer insists it goes onto the phone? I could see all civil servants being pushed into it.
Not until they give me a work phone with GPS and/or Bluetooth 😄😄
Only if you think being informed and not potentially spreading to others arent positive things.
which is a benefit to others/society, not yourself. BBC said 50% uptake needed to be effective, whats your opinion of 50% of the population?
It needs an incentive to use - that could be the ability to receive an expedited test as Jamze suggests
Only if you think being informed and not potentially spreading to others aren't positive things.
In that case just stick with lockdown. Its much simpler.
If the objective of the app is to help end lockdown and get the country back to work, basing it on symptoms isn't particularly helpful. It will just end up quarantining loads of people who don't need to be and adding to their own levels of stress and anxiety. You've said yourself its it open to abuse so you must realise its a flawed idea.
It should be based on a positive test, otherwise its useless.
If the objective of the app is to help end lockdown and get the country back to work, basing it on symptoms isn’t particularly helpful. It will just end up quarantining loads of people who don’t need to be and adding to their own levels of stress and anxiety. You’ve said yourself its it open to abuse so you must realise its a flawed idea.
It should be based on a positive test, otherwise its useless.
I heard on the radio it was both. You get symptoms, you and your contacts are quarantined. You then get tested and if you get a negative back you tell the app and you all get un-quarantined.
There will be flaws, but in the absence of a silver bullet it's one more tool that might help.
It needs an incentive to use – that could be the ability to receive an expedited test as Jamze suggests
Agreed. Everything is predicated on the rapid availability of testing across the whole country, which is what people have been saying we would need for months.
Now we are right at the crumbling edge of the population's ability to hold an effective lockdown, with all the pieces of the puzzle not quite in place.
I don't understand why UK Gov haven't gone for the decentralised (Apple Google) approach.
For an app like this to work it relies on public trust in the makers to be able to keep the data secure, not be tempted to re-purpose the data or hang on to it, and not cause detriment to anybody who doesn't sign up.
The talk about making it compulsory would be concerning - however I don't see that being realistic, or lawful. And I imagine a market will quickly establish itself for fakes.
I heard on the radio it was both. You get symptoms, you and your contacts are quarantined. You then get tested and if you get a negative back you tell the app and you all get un-quarantined.
even ignoring the lack of testing that is at best 3-4 days of quarantine where you'll be on statutory sick pay, unable to go to the supermarket, and not able to go on your daily walk.
How many false alarms will people tolerate before they decide it is a crock of poo?
Can someone link to Sir David King's "Alternative Sage" Panel on you tube? I can't find it, it was streaming today wasn't it?
I don’t understand why UK Gov haven’t gone for the decentralised (Apple Google) approach.
It makes no sense. Unless you remember that Cummings made the decision. It’s entirely unsurprising then. Centralised data gathering with selected private partners…
Anyway, back to how we shouldn’t compare countries…
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/03/englands-excess-death-rate-among-highest-europe/
even ignoring the lack of testing that is at best 3-4 days of quarantine where you’ll be on statutory sick pay, unable to go to the supermarket, and not able to go on your daily walk.
How many false alarms will people tolerate before they decide it is a crock of poo?
Every lever available is a crock of poo. The antigen test and anti body test both have flaws. [1] A vaccine won't be around for some time between a year and never.
We're going to have to use a combination of poo methods rather than one silver bullet.
3-4 days of quarantine is 10 days less than we have at the moment - a vast improvement.
[1] Some of those flaws will never be solved: Getting virus out of your throat and sending it off in the right way isn't the low skill job most of us thought. Getting blood out of your finger and sending it off in the right way isn't the low skill job most of us thought. Technology isn't going to change those two facts no matter how good the tests get.
I heard on the radio it was both. You get symptoms, you and your contacts are quarantined.
Get it now - so you reckon the initial trigger for the contact tracing process is just self-diagnosing with the symptoms? I'd heard this bit was something only the health professional could trigger, which would suggest at least an official diagnosis, ideally a positive test (although we're back to the lack of tests again).
Yeah, there is no silver bullet. All we can do is combine good-hygiene recommendations. distancing, masks, manual/app contact tracing, shielding etc. with an aim to keep the infection rate low. If it doesn't work we're back in lockdown waiting for the vaccine IMO.
Get it now – so you reckon the initial trigger for the contact tracing process is just self-diagnosing with the symptoms? I’d heard this bit was something only the health professional could trigger, which would suggest at least an official diagnosis, ideally a positive test (although we’re back to the lack of tests again).
Maybe a pro had to diagnose, I don't recall. I am sure they said the initial diagnosis is symptom based and a test follows to confirm or release contacts from quarantine.
Every lever available is a crock of poo. The antigen test and anti body test both have flaws. A vaccine won’t be around for a year.
We’re going to have to use a combination of poo methods rather than one silver bullet.
3-4 days of quarantine is 10 days less than we have at the moment – a vast improvement.
agreed on that, but based on the discussion above regarding the possibilities/limitations of the app; somebody has symptoms (from previous page, only about 1 in 10 actually had covid19) and everyone they were near in the past few days is put in this quarantine.
It needs (imo) to be only confirmed cases get to flag up on the app; and their contacts get given tests (but only quarantine with symptoms or positive test).
FYI, the latest on Test, Trace, Isolate from the Scottish Government
https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-test-trace-isolate-support/
No commitment (at this time) to use the same phone app.
Highlights the need for testing of those reporting symptoms.
It needs (imo) to be only confirmed cases get to flag up on the app; and their contacts get given tests (but only quarantine with symptoms or positive test).
Fine, but the cost of that is more delay with people spreading it for longer before finding out they might have it.
Maybe tracing apps are a gimmick that don't work, but we're told they worked in South Korea. Are all the other counties using tracing apps? How do theirs work?
A government back door closed app...
Slightly tied into the outsourcing comment above - we are taking they as meaning the government. We don't even know how the contract has been set up.
At this stage I think it's perfectly reasonable to want to know who owns the data and who has ongoing rights to use it. I wouldn't be overly surprised if it turned out the developer is able to keep what they collect.
If it doesn’t work we’re back in lockdown waiting for the vaccine IMO.
a year of lockdown wont happen.
the untimely death of 100000's, and a year of misery, unemployment and poverty for many millions due to restrictions on certain things will be the result if the variety of measures don't work.
there is a point (which I hope is not close, and never occurs) where a quarter million deaths is the lesser of two evils.
when your time frame is a year, pretty much every job apart from the leisure industry becomes "essential" and the daily life of people cannot be paused for that long without drastic consequences.
You’ve said yourself its it open to abuse so you must realise its a flawed idea.
I havent argued either way just tried to point out a few thinks that were being reported about the app. I dont think it is a flawed idea though, given the lag between getting symptoms and test results if we want to ease lockdown it would appear to be this gap we need to target to keep the r value down. I fully expect it to be flawed though in execution.
FYI, the latest on Test, Trace, Isolate from the Scottish Government
https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-test-trace-isolate-support/
/blockquote>Thanks:
The Digital Health and Care Institute are developing a secure web-based tool for the NHS in Scotland, accessible on smartphones or computers, which will allow those who are able to input details of people that they have been in close contact with, and for these to be sent directly and securely to contact tracing teams.
I have a feeling this is 100x more effective than a proximity app. Obs it's 100,000 times more resource hungry, though.
Fine, but the cost of that is more delay with people spreading it for longer before finding out they might have it.
and the cycle continues - with the next wave of contacts then being told to get tested and so on. it needs the speed of testing to be quicker than the speed of incubation to transmission.
a small percentage of testing errors (false positive or false negative) is annoying for those involved but minor from a population point of view.
Don't read to much into that comparison of Z-scores - it is the number of standard deviations away from the mean
Italy, which has had the highest number of Covid deaths in Europe, peaked at a score of 22.74 in week 14 and has since dropped back to 5.12 whilst Spain hit a peak of 34.74 at the same time and has now dropped to 3.06.
five standard deviations would be a very significant outlier (anyone remember six-sigma management? Now you know where it comes from), but a the difference between 40 in the UK and 23 in Italy is moot - what is their normal standard deviation? Did they log-transform the data? Why base on weekly rather than cumulative date... I could go on 😉
What you NEED is a model with descriptive statistics such as population density, oecd spending on health per capita, age breakdown in the population, smoking status, cardiovascular health by age, number of patients in nursing homes, days since lockdown, factors of lockdown, adherence measures... Whilst association is not causation, one can make some pretty informed guesses about relevant covariates. That's the fun bit.
