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The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.

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and if that’s all it does it’s arguably risking overloading health services by mandadating admission

Reminds me about what the PM’s experience had me thinking… should we actually be getting more patients into hospital, where they can be properly monitored, anyway?


 
Posted : 03/05/2020 2:11 pm
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Don’t stop…

If the claim is that the FDA see this as a silver bullet, I see no evidence for this beyond conspiracy chatter on social media.


 
Posted : 03/05/2020 2:12 pm
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I'll guess, but it's probably an IV tamiflu. It's hard to get to properly antiviral concentrations quickly - perhaps at all. It's toxic and has to be given IV.

And yes, in the US they are admitted for observation much earlier than here. In fact the entry criteria for the Gilead Phase 3 trials is

"Peripheral capillary oxygen saturation (SpO2) > 94% on room air at screening"

That would not get you into a UK hospital.


 
Posted : 03/05/2020 2:51 pm
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That would not get you into a UK hospital.

It might if you were PM.

Oh, I have no problem with extra caution when looking after the PM… just wondering if, assuming fewer cases going forward, we should start treating “normal” people in the same way.


 
Posted : 03/05/2020 3:36 pm
 DrJ
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should we actually be getting more patients into hospital, where they can be properly monitored, anyway?

Yeah but if we get hospitals full of people that's gonna look bad on the news. Much better that folk just drown in their own snot behind closed doors.


 
Posted : 03/05/2020 3:55 pm
 DrJ
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I was thinking the same. How many of us watch the daily briefings waitng to be told what we knew already, waiting for the government and medical advisors to catch up with us.

Does anybody watch them for information? I watch out of ghoulish curiosity to see what nonsense spews forth from half-wits like "Comical Jenny" Harries and the rest of the array of nincompoops.


 
Posted : 03/05/2020 4:06 pm
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Does anyone have links to the more medium term effects to those infected?

Also any further research on how long people are infectious for?


 
Posted : 03/05/2020 4:38 pm
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Trump being as reassuring as always…

....And then came a Plague, a great and powerful Plague, and the World was never to be the same again! But America rose from this death and destruction, always remembering its many lost souls, and the lost souls all over the World, and became greater than ever before!


 
Posted : 03/05/2020 5:44 pm
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On UK media and their contribution to UK exceptionalism:

https://twitter.com/sturdyalex/status/1256818635932422149?s=21


 
Posted : 03/05/2020 7:11 pm
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Excellent point about reporting

My Brexit foaming BinL was whipping his friends into a pro-Tory frenzy on Facebook yesterday celebrating the government hitting it's 100,000 test target, and how the anti-government media could do one. I spent all day yesterday managing not to point out that quite a few of them were still in the post, in the interests of family harmony.

I fear I'm going to explode now todays figure is out....(from the Biased Broadcasting Corporation)

What did we learn from today's UK briefing?
Michael Gove announced that a total of 28,446 people have now died with coronavirus in the UK, an increase of 315 on Saturday’s figure
Today’s figures show testing has fallen to 76,496 tests in the 24 hours up to 09:00 BST on Sunday – a drop of more than a third on the 122,000 tests carried out on 30 April. It comes after the health secretary had previously announced that the UK had met its target of carrying out 100,000 tests-a-day by the end of April


 
Posted : 03/05/2020 7:23 pm
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Surely people have to want to get tested though? The idea is we have capacity for 100k tests not that they get used every day. You can only test as many people as turn up.

Also stupid question from the press about nightingale hospitals. If they hadn’t have built them and run out of capacity they would have been criticised for that. Now they built them they are criticising them for saying they were a waste of time.


 
Posted : 03/05/2020 7:28 pm
 DrJ
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There’s no shortage of people who want to be tested. Matching up those people with testing capacity is another failure of the management of this crisis.


 
Posted : 03/05/2020 7:39 pm
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There's little point in testing most people for live virus. Madame and I haven't been in contact with anyone for 6 weeks so a test would logically be negative, and pointless. What would be interesting would be a blood test to see if we had the virus 6 weeks ago and now have antibodies. That would be useful information as Madame is a teacher.

How long there will be measurable quantities of antibodies if we've had the virus I have no idea, but testing people asap would be be both useful and informative - far more useful than testing for live virus in anyone who desn't have symptoms and hasn't been exposed to risk for over three weeks (which the aircraft carrier experience suggests is more realistic than the 14 days widely adopted).


 
Posted : 03/05/2020 7:58 pm
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There’s no shortage of people who want to be tested. Matching up those people with testing capacity is another failure of the management of this crisis

Seem to be a lot of stories about people having to travel to more distant testing centres to get a slot, given that you need to have symptoms to request one in the first place.

Was chatting with family about the Nightingales - when should they be stood down? If we were to get a bad winter flu season and the ongoing virus issue then the capacity could be very useful next winter, but can't see the venues allowing that to happen. Though I doubt that the demand for international exhibition space will be huge through 2021 even.


 
Posted : 03/05/2020 7:59 pm
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Setting up the Nightingale hospitals was probably the only right thing the Government did, the only thing they actually prepared for. I imagine they'll be stood down at some point, might be as expensive to maintain them as to shut them down, then set them up from scratch again should they be needed next winter. (It's the one thing the gov't have shown they can do at short notice.)

Whilst there won't be the usuall demand for exhibition centres, new uses could be found. By the nature of their scale they are ideally poised to offer culture and entertainment within the restrictions of social distancing.


 
Posted : 03/05/2020 8:12 pm
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Surely people have to want to get tested though?

Speak to anyone working in a care home, desperately asking for tests for staff and residents with coughs for weeks.

The idea is we have capacity for 100k tests not that they get used every day.

Logistics is not just about having stuff sitting in boxes, wondering where they might be useful. ‘The idea’ came from a government acting late, and knowing that they were late, so seeking to set the news agenda with their own irrelevant target to hide their lack of a testing strategy.

You can only test as many people as turn up.

Expecting ill, isolating, people to ‘turn up’ to distant drive through testing centres was probably another government mistake, yes.


 
Posted : 03/05/2020 8:15 pm
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If we want to get the economy back up and running (or crawling even) we've got to focus on the kind of testing Edukator is suggesting.

Testing for live virus best works during the early stages of an outbreak, allied with contact tracing. To get out of the hole were in the public need to know wether they've had it or not in order to move forward with any confidence.

What about testing for temperatures before entering any public premises? I know this has been done in other some other countries for a month now. This, along with antibody testing are the main tools we need to use to prise open economic and cultural life.


 
Posted : 03/05/2020 8:26 pm
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DrJ
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There’s no shortage of people who want to be tested. Matching up those people with testing capacity is another failure of the management of this crisis.

Yup. An unused test isn't a test at all, it has to be accessible. Was particularly absurd to hear some of the journeys NHS staff were expected to make, after they work til they drop...


 
Posted : 03/05/2020 8:31 pm
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Today’s figures show testing has fallen to 76,496 tests in the 24 hours up to 09:00 BST on Sunday

Obviously!!! There's no post on a Sunday!


 
Posted : 03/05/2020 8:34 pm
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Obviously!!! There’s no post on a Sunday!

There’s been precious little to laugh about on this thread - but that’s a rare gem.

Chapeau.


 
Posted : 03/05/2020 8:39 pm
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Setting up the Nightingale hospitals was probably the only right thing the Government did, the only thing they actually prepared for.

Rumour Control says there’ll be stood down towards the end of the year. Not before.


 
Posted : 03/05/2020 8:42 pm
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Chris Whitty's Gresham College Lecture on CV from Thursday:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000j8cl/briefings-dr-chris-whitty

Both links take you to the same vid, the youtube one contains links to three of his references.


 
Posted : 03/05/2020 10:11 pm
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He was better on that Matt Lucas thing with Harry Hill.


 
Posted : 03/05/2020 10:14 pm
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Looks like Roche have been certified by the fda for their antibody test.
you would hope that this has been subject to the appropriate level of validation, but from a number of discussions I have had over time with various groups over there I am waiting to see the validation paperwork.
I really hope it works as the antibody tests will at least allow us to pilot a route through and also from pure interest I would love to know the level of total infections in the uk.


 
Posted : 03/05/2020 10:19 pm
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https://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/has-the-government-dropped-a-bollock-is-the-media-partly-to-blame/

I'll hold my hands up, hadn't checked into this thread for while and didn't realise things had moved on to the media's response.

Looking in from an expats perspective, it seems that UK media seems to focus more on some old bit (honestly welled up listening to his efforts on the radio the other day) than the government's awful response.

A few weeks (or was it months?) so UK media was happy to shout about the "shambolic" response in Italy and Spain, yet now they seem have got one into some war time-esque form of reporting.

The UK is due to over take Italy in the next day or two (both in literal numbers and per capita) when it comes to deaths.

Looking in from the outside, its sad. I dont know how you guys are feeling, but anger must be one of the emotions...


 
Posted : 03/05/2020 11:55 pm
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It's definitely a good thing that nightingales haven't been used

The curve has been flattened very well, people have stuck with lockdown far better than government believed we would.

The NHS have not been overwhelmed*, but they've managed this by shutting down every other part of the NHS, CRUK reckon 1000s of new cancers have been missed every week.

Drs are very worried that as covid wards are winding down , where have all the strokes, heart attacks etc gone? anecdotally done very sad stories of people dying of totally treatable things but they stayed away from hospital.

As for testing, it's great that they are getting close to the 100,000 target, but it has missed the peak , while it's essential for health & social care workers, the abandonment of test track & trace has cost many lives, it's not just that it's our only way out of lockdown (so will need to be ramped up again & organised far better)
The sad fact is that most(80%?) of the people that died of it & many that are still dying caught it in the weeks before we locked down, when the government abandoned the 'containment phase'

Of course pointing this out or journos asking about it are unpatriotic or MSM enemies of the people etc 🙄

*Colleagues at different hospitals all have very different stories on how overwhelmed NHS has been, some trusts much, much worse than others & tough decisions made based on limited ITU capacity


 
Posted : 04/05/2020 12:12 am
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Alpin.

Sad, despondent and resigned mainly here.


 
Posted : 04/05/2020 12:15 am
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Michael Gove - the gift that keeps on giving....or not, dependant on your point of view.
Every time I see or hear him I'm instantly reminded of Dead Ringers - Govey, Govey, Govey - and him portrayed as the Vicky Pollard of tory politics.
He lacks credibility and empathy; always looks like a bloke recovering from a heavy night.


 
Posted : 04/05/2020 12:23 am
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CURE FOUND!

(not really)

https://twitter.com/jimmfelton/status/1257065465916149760?s=21


 
Posted : 04/05/2020 12:26 am
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You only have approximately six kids? Get another one on the way… it could keep you off a ventilator.


 
Posted : 04/05/2020 12:29 am
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The UK is due to over take Italy in the next day or two (both in literal numbers and per capita) when it comes to deaths.

Comparing stats between countries is difficult as there are so many variables.


 
Posted : 04/05/2020 12:38 am
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Comparing stats between countries is utterly pointless as there are so many variables.

Our government has had daily press briefings were they have kept showing us graphs comparing the UK to other countries. If suddenly the message you are receiving is that comparisons are “pointless”… ask yourself why.


 
Posted : 04/05/2020 12:42 am
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Every time I see or hear him I’m instantly reminded of Dead Ringers

I’m reminded of “the most punchable face in politics”.

Comparing stats between countries is utterly pointless as there are so many variables.

We have well-validated techniques to adjust for differences. It’s called statistics. You measure covariates that hopefully account for variability, then make adjustments for these covariates to estimate the effect. A good one will be oecd spending on healthcare per capita. Another might be age distribution. It’s perfectly valid. Our hospital mortality rate (33-50%) is absolutely shocking. But that’s because hardly anyone is going to hospital. That will be an interesting global metric.

It’s 25% for influenza btw

https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/track/pdf/10.1186/s12889-016-3128-4

Is data more comparable with U.K. influenza.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/medical-databases-show-1-in-10-hospitalized-middle-aged-coronavirus-patients-in-us-do-not-survive/2020/04/11/284485a2-7bfe-11ea-b6ff-597f170df8f8_story.html%3foutputType=amp


 
Posted : 04/05/2020 12:57 am
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Bottom line is if you're at home and think you are dying of covid don't go to a UK hospital because you're statistically more likely to die!


 
Posted : 04/05/2020 1:03 am
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Why the **** do people buy the Sun?


 
Posted : 04/05/2020 1:09 am
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TiRed - the most punchable face in politics title has several vying for that accolade and govey is one of them; the Moggster but he wears glasses, iain drunken smith, john redwood (punch, headbutt and kick in the bollocks), cameron because he's mr smug, farage.
If I was a woman the list would have priti patel and theresa may at the top.
It's a bit late to develop the lists a bit further tonight but your phrase could/should be a new thread.


 
Posted : 04/05/2020 1:23 am
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GlennQuagmire
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Comparing stats between countries is difficult as there are so many variables.

True. However, we're not really looking for a direct equivalency here. The point is that we're doing pretty much as badly as Italy, despite having some major advantages. The benefit of time alone with our first infection coming later was enough- or should have been enough- to make a massive difference but it was absolutely pissed away. Their aging population also disadvantages them hugely. And we've got the geographical benefit of being an island.

Basically, yes there's many variables but the big ones are in our favour.


 
Posted : 04/05/2020 1:31 am
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Piers Morgan hasn't washed his hands properly...


 
Posted : 04/05/2020 3:54 am
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Or didn’t sing rule Britannia long enough(remember that gem of advice)


 
Posted : 04/05/2020 7:45 am
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it was absolutely pissed away.

+1


 
Posted : 04/05/2020 7:54 am
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++


 
Posted : 04/05/2020 7:56 am
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You couldn't hit Gove really hard because of the recoil of utter disgust and revulsion you'd get at the point of contact. International comparisons are hard, we are told, but that doesn't stop other countries looking to Britain (we all need a bit of levity in times like these).
The photo on the net of Boris's eye would suggest she carries a sharp left hook ('it was only a waitress') but he would have made it up by wetting the baby's head with a £1200 case of Dom (true story).


 
Posted : 04/05/2020 8:10 am
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Looking in from the outside, its sad. I dont know how you guys are feeling, but anger must be one of the emotions…

Utterly unsurprised would be my assessment. After 3 1/2 years of brexishambles, the inability to manage this should be no surprise to anyone. What has been surprising is the allowance of the media to let them hide behind scientists, and the willingness of said scientists to be their cannon fodder.


 
Posted : 04/05/2020 8:13 am
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Pleased to see that David King is setting up an alternative SAGE committee which will broadcast on YT. He of the planet-sized brain (he co-invented the catalytic converter, ex Cambridge prof) and the common touch. This is a welcome development. I wonder if Paul Nurse will be invited to join.


 
Posted : 04/05/2020 9:41 am
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BillMC
You couldn’t hit Gove really hard because of the recoil of utter disgust and revulsion you’d get at the point of contact.

[groan]The problem is this govt doesn't know if it's Cummings or Goving...[/groan]


 
Posted : 04/05/2020 9:47 am
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