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From that Cambridge Virologist mentioned before (bottom p.161):
I take great umbrage at the lengths of time you are meant to be infectious for because it is just not true. Nine days is nonsense. You don’t excrete a live virus that long.
I don't understand this, don't want to be doubting a Cambridge professor and all, but if the virus was only infectious for a few days prior to symptoms then how come theres such high numbers of health care workers infected once the patient reaches the ward potentially weeks after initial infection? This is like saying it's just a coincidence and that doctors are coming into contact with infection from elsewhere, surely not... or is she saying that infection from a 'live' virus is different from infection from a patients cell production?
Add to the time the person is secreteing live virus the time the virus will survive on/in them. If it can survice three days on an inert surface I'd expect at least that on a warm, humid human.
Just because people are experts doessn't mean one or two of them don't have rogue opinions.
I don’t understand this, don’t want to be doubting a Cambridge professor and all, but if the virus was only infectious for a few days prior to symptoms then how come theres such high numbers of health care workers infected once the patient reaches the ward potentially weeks after initial infection?
Yup, plus wouldn't the UK's health advisers already know the duration a virus remains 'live' in the body? On the other hand she ought to know her stuff. I'd like a definitive answer.
Add to the time the person is secreteing live virus the time the virus will survive on/in them.
Could be that. The last cough with live virus plus a few days with the virus living on their clothes/skin/hair makes 7-9 days give or take. Plus they probably take the longer 'child' estimate as their initial estimate for everyone, just to keep it simple.
Also we don't know what detail or nuance that newspaper left out of her comments.
Still be nice to have a definitive answer, wonder if the Prof is on twitter...
Edukator
Member
Like Kerley I’ve noted that the UK is closely tracking Italy (add another day to Kerley’s list and they are both around 1800). Another striking similarity is that lockdown in Italy took place at about 400 dead on 9/3/2020 and in the UK on 23-24/3/2020 at about the same number.
They reckon we are tracking france. Valance said yesteeday,
Italian deaths are under 10% for three days running now.
UK numbers around 20% for past three days. This is exactly where Italy was around two weeks back, both for magnitude and rate of change.
We might well also be tracking France.
France probably sounds less scary to the general public because Covid-19 has made a lot less dead people there - so far.
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Reliant on testing admittedly
They, Seosahm? Valance is wrong. France locked down after less than half the deaths of either the UK or Italy after a period of volontary confinement that had been fairly well followed. The geographical dispersion was and isn't the same. Check out TiRed's (conservative not frightening) estimates on page 153, the UK is on a steeper curve than France.
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Up to 13:00 today
All assumes that site is accurate
The geographical dispersion was and isn’t the same.
Ed
Are you saying it was the same but has since changed and now isn’t the same?
Edukator
Member
They, Seosahm? Valance is wrong. France locked down after less than half the deaths of either the UK or Italy after a period of volontary confinement that had been fairly well followed. The geographical dispersion was and isn’t the same. Check out TiRed’s (conservative not frightening) estimates on page 153, the UK is on a steeper curve than France.
Why do you have such a hardon for predicting doom in the uk?
Do you even notice your bias?
Some countires ahve been fairly successful in limiting the spread with a faster geographical lockdown in response to high incidences in some areas. France initially had a hot spot in the East and the exodus in response to that was from Paris which at the time wasn't too badly affected.
In Wuhan the province was locked down fairly quickly, In Italy the flight was from Lombardie which was the area hardest hit to the rest of Itlay. In Spain the flight was from Madrid, again the hardest hit, in the UK... You tell me, you people have seen it first hand. I've just noted the remarkably even per capita spread across the UK based on numbers for towns.
There are still relatively unaffected areas in France and that doesn't seem to be the case in the UK as it spread very quickly from the points of entry.
The main worry for France is 93, with its very high population density and a whole load of social issues that are making enforcement of confinement harder than eleswhere.
I can’t relate this numbers to the numbers I’ve found. You’ve got us level pegging on day 18 but Italy had twice as many deaths per day at day 18 compared to us and their graph was shooting skywards. We’re on less than half the deaths per day and have decreased 4 days in a row.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-3-day-average
…and a plea. When people post numbers on this thread (or online in general) please link to the source! It saves everyone a load of googling and saves people asking (and answering) questions.
quite right I should have added source
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
My counts started at day of 10 deaths (10 is a bit arbitrary but better than 0) in each country day 0 In UK was March 12th
In Italy was Feb 25th, by 18 days later in UK (mar 30) 1408 deaths in Italy (mar 14) 1441 deaths
If we add in the 40 extra who died at home then Uk is at 1448
Why do you have such a hardon for predicting doom in the uk?
Do you even notice your bias?
If you read back you'l find I ignored the thread for a long time then entered it when the "herd" aprroach was in vogue - to argue against and encourage STWers to isolate and on a personal level at least protect themselves and their families.
I encouraged people to take their kids out of school - they eventually shut
I denounced the pub going activity as foolish - they eventually shut
I described the National Trust free opening to encourage the use of its parks and gardens as "****ing ridiculous" - they soon shut
Now the UK has adopted similar tactics to most other countries (the Swedes are still ****ing stupid IMO) I'm a whole lot less critical of the UK.
The lack of an early lockdown will have consequences though. There's no "hardon" about it, that's just in your head. I'm just disagreeing with Valance's predictions and comparison with France when the more obvious comparison is with Italy, we'll see who's right soon enough. I'm not the only one making the comparison with Italy, Kerly and Mrmonkfinger have pointed out the same and TiRed's predictions suggest France may roll over before the UK.
I'm being objective, Seosahm, you're making a personal attack as you did a few pages ago. I'm the one being proved right in case you hadn't noticed.
In Wuhan the province was locked down fairly quickly, In Italy the flight was from Lombardie which was the area hardest hit to the rest of Itlay. In Spain the flight was from Madrid, again the hardest hit, in the UK… You tell me, you people have seen it first hand. I’ve just noted the remarkably even per capita spread across the UK based on numbers for towns.
In the early days the maps by region had London with a very low case count.
Especially when you consider that Europes busiest airport spits you straight out onto the tube.
France was Mar 06 for 10 deaths 18 days later France was on 1331
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/
my measure is obviously very crude but I dont see massive difference compared to UK or Italy tbh (& loads of potential for error base don how deaths are recorded between countries ie was covid cause or comorbidity)
The difference is which measures were taken and when, Kimbers, and the geographical distibution and dispersion patterns alluded to above. If you are looking for a predictive model I think Italy is better than France, whichever comparison you chose it's sobering in that despite lockdowns the numbers rise and both France and Italy prove peak is a long long way from lockdown. Time will tell.
Isn’t that 19 days later Kimbers?
yeah loads of variables
were we still seeing things like this in Italy & France at similar point in 'lockdown'
https://twitter.com/itvlondon/status/1244910161917022208
piemonster
Subscriber
Isn’t that 19 days later Kimbers?
yes, sorry!
edit actually 10th death was a day later - 9 deaths on 6th, 16 on 7th
can we split the difference?
The Metro pictures were nothing like that Kimbers. I spent an hour touring France on webcams a few days ago and the level of confinement was immediately very high, mainly I think because the number of types of business told to close was broader. Berlin metro stations are equally dead. Anomolies noted by French media were scrums to get into supermarkets in densly populated areas and youths playing cat and mouse with the police in some areas.
yeah loads of variables
Huge range really.
But it’s easy to find other vectors to counter where things might help slow the spread in the U.K.
My Italian friends have very close knit family units with high frequency contact and greetings usually involve contact, often to the face.
London has a huge underground network of Corona Tubes!
Prof Jim Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute and professor of structural biology, Oxford University, urged the government to be more consistent in the data it provides. “Some of the NHS trusts reporting deaths in today’s NHS press release are apparently counting deaths over several days, other trusts for one day. Some trusts stop at the 29th [March], other trusts report deaths on the 30th. It is unclear how these numbers relate to the overall daily number from the UK government,” he said.
“However, it does appear deaths from previous days are only now being reported. This will have artificially decreased the previous daily totals and have increased today’s totals. Scientists have consistently warned that we cannot judge our progress in curbing the epidemic by a single day’s reported number of deaths.”
Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge, said the daily figures should be treated with caution but they suggest the UK is two weeks behind Italy.
I lasted 5 hours at home last night before bouncing back to COVID ward via A&E.
Really not having much fun but no reason to be too concerned, just frustratingly low o2 levels. Likely to be here for at least a couple more days
did tell you it was too early to smash it on the turbo! 😉
sorry to hear that frank
we're all rooting for you!
I think Edukator has a point. The apparent downturn in the numbers could instill complacency. Fwiw a friend in Modena was imploring me to stay indoors long before we got locked down on the 15th and I just waved it off as scaremongering.
Everything she told me (more or less the self same doom that Edukator is peddling) came to pass in pretty short order.
I'm wondering if people are worrying less about this than they ought to.
I’m wondering if people are worrying less about this than they ought to.
IME
Some aren’t worried enough
Some are striking a reasonable balance
Some are too worried, to the point mental health is deteriorating. For some that’s enough to be a serious risk in itself
I think I started actively distancing others (more than usual) 9th March, WFH started a little before then too.
I encouraged people to take their kids out of school – they eventually shut
I denounced the pub going activity as foolish – they eventually shut
I described the National Trust free opening to encourage the use of its parks and gardens as “**** ridiculous” – they soon shut
There we got edukator saved the uk ,these things weren't going to happen anyhow....
I also find it curious that people still go on as if they defeated the 'herd immunity' concept. It never was a main goal, the main goal has always been to protect the nhs from collapse.
The idea that 'herd immunity has been debunked is daft aswell. It's still a valid concept for consideration going forward and needs to be, all ideas are still in the table at this point, unless a vaccine appears.
Which I wouldn't bet my house on, far as I know there's never been a corona vaccine? There was none for SARS are MERS anyhow..
There we got edukator saved the uk ,these things weren’t going to happen anyhow
I'm not a famous enough influencer to save the UK but along with half a dozen other active STWers I might have contributed to a few STWers being a bit more careful and perhaps not exposing themselves to the virus. Which if you think about it means I have the best interests of Brits (or at least the ones who read STW) at heart.
Which I wouldn’t bet my house on, far as I know there’s never been a corona vaccine? There was none for SARS are MERS anyhow..
SARS / MERS is that because it is technically challenging or because of a lack social imperative?
seosamh77
SubscriberI also find it curious that people still go on as if they defeated the ‘herd immunity’ concept. It never was a main goal, the main goal has always been to protect the nhs from collapse.
The idea that ‘herd immunity has been debunked is daft aswell. It’ll still a valid concept going forward and needs to be, all ideas are still in the table at this point, unless a vaccine appears.
Which I wouldn’t bet my house on, far as I know there’s never been a corona vaccine? There was none for SARS are MERS anyhow..
Posted 3 minutes ago
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I've copied the whole post so people don't have to go back a page to find it, and I'll answer paragraph by paragraph:
The objective in most places had been to limit the number of excess deaths and limiting cases to the numbers the NHS can cope with in intensive care is the best way of doing that.
The herd immunity approach will result in a high number of excess deaths, you might be happy with that. If my 22-year-old son had that attitude I'd understand, he doesn't, he cares about others and accepts that he might be a bit economically poorer, maybe.
There might not be a corona vaccine but there will be treatment protocols, there will be more ventilators made, there might be a vaccine that boosts the immune system even if it doesn't stop infection. There are 39 molecules currently under investigation. A lockdown buys time and that time will be used wisely.
A lockdown buys time and that time will be used wisely.
A lockdown that was always going to happen.
oldagedpredator
SARS / MERS is that because it is technically challenging or because of a lack social imperative?
Couldn't tell you. But even if it does happen, it's 12-18 months away, we aren't staying in lockdown for that long.
If you have a gander a this table from yesterdays imperial report, it's entirely possible that the likes of spain and italy are already well on their way to a herd immunity approach anyway whether they like it or not, so I think the idea will come back longer this goes. The speed of the spread is dictating that we'll not stop it before the 12-18months anyway.
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Don't know about you, but the like of China, I'm very suspicious about their numbers and that they have actually stopped it.
Feels like you’re piling on Ed now… and he hasn’t said anything remotely worthy of that, has he?
I agree that the “green shoots” line risks being a poor message to communicate at this point, even though it came with strong caveats. Spending a weekend talking about herd immunity was also poor messaging, given what we’d already seen and should have learnt from other countries at that point.
the herd immunity strategy (that was very much the governments plan & cummings baby at one point-*see link) struggles because you only get immunity from other coronaviruses for 6-8 months & its assumed itll be the same for this
It also means a huge number of deaths
*paywall but register for free artiles https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-ten-days-that-shook-britain-and-changed-the-nation-for-ever-spz6sc9vb
scotroutes
Subscriber@frankconway – are you one of “the usual antagonists”?
Posted 3 minutes ago
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Nothing on-topic to add, Scotroutes, you're just here to antagonise is the only plausible explanation.
Rather than attack the poster, try taking on the facts, the arguments presented and the logic. You'll fail as usual.
Bunch of amateurs 😉 . I fitted a non-linear mixed-effects Gompertz growth model to the global data, all rebased to 8 deaths on common time. Most country posterior predictions fit this data well. But other functions will also fit the data. The model predicts UK and global epidemic size, but many functions will describe this early exponential growth, e.g.,
log(D) = a0 + a1D + a2D*D + ...
I also fitted a much more complex model to global data based on lagged time for cases and deaths. This model is good for short-term predictions, including possible trends of daily ups and downs. Just don't ask for a month away. They agree well out to 7d, and I am happy with the Gompertz model to two weeks at the moment.
It is, however, much too early to call epidemic size, but I think I feel happy about calling the order of severity (Spain looks like the loser). I can also say with confidence that if daily deaths have not started to decline properly by mid-May, then that would not be a Good Thing(R). That is all I am going to predict.
Don't get me started on the Oxford paper. Get me a some proper data!
[TL:DR] I throw a ball for the dog. Now I think it will be parabola because gravity. BNut what if it wasn't quite the inverse square law, it was actually a little bit different. I might get a good estimate of climb, but overall hight and how far the dog runs might be hard to estimate.
That is where we are at the moment. Believe nothing else.