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A lockdown that was always going to happen.
If it was always going to happen, why didn't it happen earlier?
Re. the comment earlier that lockdown in Italy began after 400 deaths. The FT graphs say it was after 800. Also looking at the case trajectories the US is looking really bad.
the herd immunity strategy (that was very much the governments plan & cummings baby at one point-*see link) struggles because you only get immunity from other coronaviruses for 6-8 months & its assumed itll be the same for this
It also means a huge number of deaths
I don't think there is a specific tactic called 'herd immunity'. Herd immunity is a thing that happens eventually, and needs to happen either naturally or by vaccine. Because the virus isn't going away. What you lot are talking about is the 'sod it' approach which is not what anyone really advocated, certainly not me.
slowoldman
If it was always going to happen, why didn’t it happen earlier?
Fear that if they lockdown too early the lockdown would get lifted too early.
Which is still a major factor at the minute. How long do people think we'll live like this? I'm entirely unsure myself, 3 weeks, 6 week, 3 months, 6 months, 9 months, 12 months?
I haven't a clue.
If it was always going to happen, why didn’t it happen earlier?
Because it's easier to achieve when you have the public on-side. That needed a gentle introduction to the concept - ramping it up in stages - and a few deaths to make it seem like the correct thing to do.
Fear that if they lockdown too early the lockdown would get lifted too early.
Yep - that too. Starting off saying that the lockdown would last 6-9 months would cause panic buying on an even larger scale and more reluctance on the part of the public to accept it.
I don’t think there is a specific tactic called ‘herd immunity’.
That's a difficult one. The channel 4 - think it was channel 4 - special on C-19 had a government person on who very much seemed to be saying that was the approach. This was about the 13th of March.
Whatever you're model is, TiRed, it's doing pretty well so far, even if only for 7 days.
The thing about virus survival time got me thinking about bacteria and virus survival in chlorinated water during and after treatment. It was generally very short as hyperchloirnation in the treatment plants killed everything in the water before the chlorine level was reduced again before distribution. However sometimes despite the chlorination equipment working perfectly the little beasties got through, usually when there were problems forming a floc or a filter breakthrough. The bacteria or viruses survived because they were protected in the micro particles or unfiltered floc. And once into distibution at potable chlorine levels they survived for a long time, long enough to be picked up in samples much further down the distribution system.
So in big drops from a sneeze the virus would remain acitve for hours if not days.
Because it’s easier to achieve when you have the public on-side. That needed a gentle introduction to the concept – ramping it up in stages – and a few deaths to make it seem like the correct thing to do.
Yeah keep seeing people say this, but not seen any proof,
blinded by our lack of testing, ramping it up in stages, simply gave the virus time to gain an even bigger foothold
just sounds like people making excuses for the government lacking the courage to do what needed to be done (times article indicates cummings was prioritising economy over lives)
Yep – that too. Starting off saying that the lockdown would last 6-9 months would cause panic buying on an even larger scale and more reluctance on the part of the public to accept it.
and Hancock saying they only started talking to supermarkets 3 weeks ago about stock levels shows they possibly werent intending & certainly not planning for it
Slowoldman:
I got the Italian lockdown date of 9pm 9/3/2020 from here:
The deaths declared at the time were about 400, you can check that against worldometers or the EU site.
Because it’s easier to achieve when you have the public on-side. That needed a gentle introduction to the concept – ramping it up in stages – and a few deaths to make it seem like the correct thing to do.
I'm not sure nudge is the whole story, it's probably mixed up with not thinking it could get here as quick, trying not to crash the economy by throwing out the anchors, thinking it would pass us by and best not over react.
The public at large did not seem to have a clear idea there was an imminent threat.
Whalley Bridge Dam last year - evacuate now dam is about but burst - 99.9% of population, OK clear risk to life and limb, sod you kitty cat we're off.
Would the shock have been greater if we had gone straight corralling the population - who knows. If we did it and the rest of the world didn't react - it all passed us by then we've just torpedoed the economy.
I agree that the “green shoots” line risks being a poor message to communicate at this point, even though it came with strong caveats.
Just heard that - what a nob !
Back on the numbers - the figures we are getting now for deaths and infections relate to roughly which date(s)? Am I right in assuming there is a lag on death and infection figures - todays infection figures are from the weekend of the 21st but the deaths are from the week prior?
Back on the numbers – the figures we are getting now for deaths and infections relate to roughly which date(s)?
This is the one I'm finding it hardest to get a consistent view on other than it seems to be getting longer. A few weeks back we were being told 3-6 days from infection to symptoms, another 5-7 to hospitalisation and another 4 to death. So about 17 days. I linked an article in the Birmingham mail earlier today a page or so back with a doctor claiming his cases dying today were infected a month back. Each report seems to extend the timeline which is bad news for when we can expect peak and a return to normal.
I’m not sure nudge is the whole story, it’s probably mixed up with not thinking it could get here as quick, trying not to crash the economy by throwing out the anchors, thinking it would pass us by and best not over react.
yeah the nudge theory doesnt hold when you look at the contradictory statements coming from different ministers & parts of government about isolation, lockdown & distancing the farce over parks being open, construction workers being told to stay working and the repeated failure to ramp up testing
eve now the WHO say you should stay isolated for 14 days but Johnson plans to be back out after 7!?!
On top of that youve got influential (with the government) clowns like Toby Young saying lockdown should be ended asap coz its only old people thats gonna die
Damn foreign media, eh?
surely our government have this info too?
https://matadornetwork.com/read/cell-phone-data-reveals-americans-staying-home-ones-arent/
+1 to pretty much what seosamh77, molegrips and scotroutes are saying.
The virus isn't going to go away. There are only two defences, herd immunity or we all stay locked up forever. There are two ways of getting herd immunity: vaccine or a significant chunk of the popultion catching CV. I'll offer a clue as to which of the two approaches is being taken worldwide: There is no vaccine.
It's pretty clear that until a vaccine comes along or there's an antibody test every country in the world is going to have to keep turning on and off the tap letting people get it at a rate that allows their hospitals to keep up. (One other way that could end is if people of a country somewhere get fed up and just largely ignore the restrictions and it becomes utterly unenforceable. I'm sure that day will come for somewhere. Maybe not today but after a summer of being cooped up???)
Many thanks, that cracked it. The worldometer site has an overview page – showing 381 but when you follow the uk link it takes you to the 3 day average of 180 and the 381 number is absent! That’s the explanation.
To save everyone else the bother:
The 381 number is here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/The UK page with the 180 number is here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Just answering my own question about death numbers from earlier: According to R4 PM the 381 number included backlog from previous days. So that's the UK death number for today explained. The apparent downturn in new infection numbers in multiple countries and the downturn in death rates in multiple countries haven't been explained yet. Maybe it really is the end of the first hump. (Although the cynic in me wonders if everywhere tried to get as many deaths/infections through in the March numbers to make April look better...)
So what is the reason for Spain’s outlier place in the rankings? I get Italy being hit first so offguard, but why is Spain worse than all the rest?
surely our government have this info too?
Related but different
I half caught something on the way to the Zwift that sounded like the government was looking on a close contact app. If you meet an infected person it pings up and tells you and your contacts to isolate.
I forget how I came to see this - apologies if it's bindun:
Back on the numbers – the figures we are getting now for deaths and infections relate to roughly which date(s)? Am I right in assuming there is a lag on death and infection figures – todays infection figures are from the weekend of the 21st but the deaths are from the week prior?
As a crude measure take the positive test cases from 7 days ago, and ~25% of those will unfortunately turn into deaths today, for the UK.
Now take that with a pinch of salt, as it’s very crude, but on that basis this time next week, we could be looking at 700 deaths in a day.
So what is the reason for Spain’s outlier place in the rankings? I get Italy being hit first so offguard, but why is Spain worse than all the rest?
Various reasons:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/spain-coronavirus-response-analysis
This one is a bit of a hobby horse for me but if you fancy a look at early stages of response to a virus.
I’m sure that day will come for somewhere.
Fairly terrifying when you see the like of this.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-52086274
In Spain the central government has mismanaged and reacted late every step of the way; if they had any self-respect they would resign and abandon public life after this crisis.
Fairly terrifying when you see the like of this.
Modi seems to have terribly miscalculated, especially when India has one of the the largest internal migrant populations in the world, nearly 40% of the country
Tobias Ellwood MP & deserves an award for his epic use of whataboutery on Newsnight!
Given the horrific consequences of Covid-19 for the developed world, what are the implications for war torn countries like Yemen, Syria and Palestine, who in many respects find themselves in the state they're in due to the actions (or inaction) of our government(s)?
What if you don't have a home to stay in?
Or worse still, the aggressors essentially use Coronavirus as a weapon on a civilian population...
We even have radio presenters bragging about how they coughed their way around the supermarket, but its fine because they'd already isolated for 7 days
https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1245075228381904897
This time next week, we could be looking at 700 deaths in a day.
Not in my prediction interval (your's is too high). As I have previously stated, less than 3000 (on today's model prediction) total this time next week would be good news. I only post what I would like it for good news.
700 a day in a week would be bang on the italy curve by my somewhat less rigorous method of aligning 2 graphs!
youd hope that weve had enough time to prepare better for the influx so could get that down, what Im not convinced is that weve locked down soon enough & sorted the social distancing thing, so seeing less deaths due to overwhelmed hospitals than in italy but wider spread of disease
Airbus UK have started making ventilators. 3 production lines already established with a 4th possibly to start next week. The lines will be running 24/7.
I've been offered the chance to join the 4th line if it goes ahead and I want to help, but don't know how given the kids are now at home and my wife is also working...arggh!
It’d be a good thing to do if you can Daffy, I’m itching to volunteer with the NHS in Scotland.
Parents are well isolated, no kids, can’t be far off being furloughed/redundant/reduced hours as well.
See how that looks after it updates today.
I guess I’m about to find out if there’s a benefit for needing a long spoon in Fife.
I do fit in, to be fair.
why do the government keep making shit up!?!
because the last 4 years set a precedent which they seem determined to follow?
because the last 4 years set a precedent which they seem determined to follow?
Perhaps the nudge unit has a very limited play book:
We have to Brexit - or the people will riot
We have delay containment - or the people will riot
Yes it's a gross simplification but there is discernible trend.
At the moment you can't fail to be impressed at the way some things are coming together now. Problem is in nudge land it's likely to be wait for the national pride, hold onto the Brexit and we'll set sail with minimal resistance. If people didn't play things for their own ends we wouldn't have Spiv's, black marketeers or the Weatherspoons situation.
Given the leader sets the culture and Boris Johnson has definitely got form for being on manoovers for his own end. It would be nieave to think there isn't some exploitation on the go.
Given that there seems to be some comments about Sweden, I thought I should post a view from this side of the nordics. Disclosure: I live in Stockholm and work in the middle of the city.
So, things here are gearing up to Påsk (easter) and it is traditionally the last big skiing weekend of the year with people generally heading out to paces like Idre, Åre (hej Howsyourdad1!) and Sälen to pick up the last of the snow. This has been recommended against by the government, but not banned and the advice was to have a lot more space on things like queues for the lifts (yeah right). Yesterday I heard that Skistar had basically shut their resorts ( https://omni.se/skistar-stanger-alla-sina-svenska-skidanlaggningar/a/Qobylq) so it looks like resort owners are taking decisions for the people too.
Outside my window today is a förskol, filled with [generally] happy small kids. I live in an area with many of these and they are basically still open. Life seems to be almost the same round here, just a little quieter.
As far as work is concerned, we have been told to work from home if you can work from home. I know of some people that are still going in to the office, some because they have to (I work in a regulated industry) but some because they "don't like working from home". I know of other people, generally the younger ones, that are playing down the risks because they are more able to fight it off and more likely to have some sort of immunity sooner. Public transport is still used and still busy, just less crammed. I've never really used it, so can't comment myself.
The biggest news is that System Bolaget, the state monopoly for alcohol, is running reduced hours. This protects their staff but still allows people a small window to get booze which is apparently what people need right now. I'm just glad I put on a batch of IPA the other week. By the time my last lot of beer runs out, my "Isolation IPA" should be conditioned and ready to drink.
why do the government keep making shit up!?!
Gove is blaming China now for the lack of testing, saying they didn't have time to ramp it up because of the Chinese. Despite it being clear this was a nasty disease months ago and despite the government being warned we weren't prepared for a pandemic a few years ago.
All very odd; you'd think the senior civil servants overseeing all of this would've been on the ball this time around, given their key personal involvement in the Iraq WMD fiasco:
https://twitter.com/markcurtis30/status/1245246057711353856
why do the government keep making shit up!?!
Gove is blaming the Chinese now, saying they didn't give us enough warning - despite the fact that they gave us months and the government were warned years ago we weren't prepared for a pandemic.
A Naples hospital that has been entirely converted to dealing with COVID patients was just been shown on Sky News - the level/quality of the PPE and the infection control/clean room procedures (graded room cleanliness much like sterile manufacturing, proper separation between infected patients and everyone else, guards making sure that people don't accidentally enter contaminated rooms or corridors). that they are using throughout the entire hospital embarrasses what we seem to have the resources to do. It made the NHS Nightingale look like a joke.
China stepping up on asymptomatic cases
Looks like China have stepped up their approach to asymptomatic carriers.
Figure of around 25% quoted for asymptomatic infections, which seems to be quite common now, and close to the earlier S Korea figure of 20%.
I note Italian figures are continuing to look hopeful last night / today. Only 4% rise in cases, 7% in death count.
Spain for the first day shows under 10% increase in death count. Maybe they have turned the corner too.
proper separation between infected patients
I can't help thinking that the converted warehouses here aren't going to have much of any separation between patients and any kind of negative pressure environment is a pipe dream. I suppose the real losers there are the staff, if everyone else in the single big room has it.
I can’t help thinking that the converted warehouses here aren’t going to have much of any separation between patients and any kind of negative pressure environment is a pipe dream.
Looking at the pictures coming out of the Excel centre, they don't - it's a M*A*S*H style field hospital more suited to injured soldiers.
But yeah, go Britain - we're amazing etc. Boris is doing such a great job. What a lad.