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Interesting article here from University of Cambridge virologist.
Immunity, relapse, contagion, etc. Also it seems unlikely anyone with a bad cough over the winter had COVID-19
Thank SOM, superb article. (Assuming it's all true.)
I was especially truck by this:
The symptoms that drag on are your body’s response to the virus, but the virus is gone after a few days. I take great umbrage at the lengths of time you are meant to be infectious for because it is just not true. Nine days is nonsense. You don’t excrete a live virus that long.
Those studies are not checking for live virus, they are checking for genome. They do something called a PCR test (polymerase chain reaction), which is the test we are using to diagnose patients. It doesn’t tell you that you have live virus in your nose, it tells you have had it. For about 72 hours of a viral infection you have a live virus. In children it can last for longer – four or five days have been observed in flu.
Which suggests that by the time people get into hospital they virus is long gone. (Although wouldn't doctors know that?)
Its deeply frustrating that the government keep lying to us
Johnson said we werent involved in joint EU procurement because we’ve left the EU, Hancock said we missed the email, Gove said it was a misunderstanding, turns out UK officials were present at meetings from as early as January
This would be the same Boris Johnson who sent an unsigned letter to the EU requesting a Brexit extension. He definitely has form for playing silly buggers in matters of great national importance.
Is he or isn't he at the moment - sadly you can't say definitely with conviction one way or the other.
Which suggests that by the time people get into hospital they virus is long gone. (Although wouldn’t doctors know that?)
Was the case for a work mate. His whole family had fever, dry cough (started with kids). They all recovered but he ended up in hospital with pneumonia. He tested negative for Covid19 and the doctors did say he would have had it but it is no longer present hence negative test.
Just that one example is 4 people who have had it yet none are in the stats. My guess would still be that millions of people have already had it, a lot of whom won't even know.
There is quite good modelling on this - one model says it will peak around the end of April, which would be great - I think that is quite optimistic. Then one takes it as far as May. It will start dying off but it’s not going to die off in time globally to help the Olympics
...and this I don't understand.
Why will it die off before large numbers of us have had it?
My guess would still be that millions of people have already had it, a lot of whom won’t even know.
Fingers crossed. I'll piss myself laughing if the antibody test comes out next week and they have to sheepishly say "Sorry, most of you have had it. Open the pubs, back to work, off you go."
The antigen test has been a massive red herring.
I’ll piss myself laughing
And I'm sure those that have lost family members would join you....
I’ll piss myself laughing if the antibody test comes out next week and they have to sheepishly say “Sorry, most of you have had it. Open the pubs, back to work, off you go.”
I won't, as a whole raft of people won't ever listen to anything their told, ever again. It's bad enough now.
My guess would still be that millions of people have already had it, a lot of whom won’t even know.
Or, look at a country that has got and stayed on top of it and is reporting decent data, S Korea. As of 24/3, they had 111 deaths, 8961 confirmed cases, is about 1.5%.
What are we at in UK, 1400 ish deaths today, puts us at circa 95k cases... allowing for growth since the time those 1400 dead were first infected, probably about 4 times that, so near 400k?
Not millions yet - not even 1% of pop.
Come back when we've buried 30,000 from it, and we have had 8 or 10 mil infections.
Is he or isn’t he at the moment – sadly you can’t say definitely with conviction one way or the other.
Well, that's the thing with constructive ambiguity and truth stretching.
All funny japes when it's just conning a populace into voting against its own interests, twice.
Not so funny when something that requires real trust gives into view.
I've said it twice before on this thread. Half the country know Johnson is a liar and wouldn't vote for him because of it. The other know he is a liar and love him for it because he will 'shake the plaster off the ceiling' to make their Daily Mail fantasy world come true.
But in the end no one really trusts him.
I doubt very much that any other other PM would have done that much differently over the last week or two. The time for politicking is not now.
However, there will be a time and it will not be long. No Deal Brexit looming at the end of the year and CV will still be hanging around then.
If he is going to go through with it, he needs ousting. If he delays, the swivel eyed loons will have him. Their masters are getting more impatient for their payout.
Or, look at a country that has got and stayed on top of it and is reporting decent data, S Korea. As of 24/3, they had 111 deaths, 8961 confirmed cases, is about 1.5%.
They haven't got an antibody test either so they have no more clue than us.
I dunno. Not many folks dying of it in S Korea. I'd rather our government didn't know the same things their government didn't know.
On a slightly less serious note, has anybody else noticed a big increase in fly tipping since lockdown?
They haven’t got an antibody test either so they have no more clue than us.
I dunno.
I do. They haven't. They have no idea what portion of their population have had it.
Daily death toll is 393, shits starting to get very real
On a slightly less serious note, has anybody else noticed a big increase in fly tipping since lockdown?
Yes, massively.
Scrotes will always be scrotes.
Some experts on here who need to join the government response team - soon have it all sorted!
I’ll piss myself laughing
Doctors have died, after contracting this virus from people they were looking after.
You enjoy your laughs.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-3-day-average
Downward trend of new cases (appears to) continue.
I really don't understand why all the countries are coming down down at the same time, surely the countries that 'got it' later should be peaking later???
I don't see how we can make the case that the UK is heading where Italy were (or are if you prefer).
S.Korea have have done some excellent work with qPCR, test track, trace & isolate
Its fair to say they have a much better understanding of how its spreading within their own population that we do in ours
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-south-korea-put-into-place-the-worlds-most-aggressive-coronavirus-testing-11584377217
the work on the Shincheonji Church of Jesus infection was very impressive
https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTERS/0100B5G33SB/index.html
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-3-day-average
Deaths decreasing everywhere too. (Admittedly all these numbers are over the weekend *but* they've never dropped over weekends before.)
Daily death toll is 393, shits starting to get very real
There was talk of "sweeping up" unreported deaths into today's figure, IIRC?
In other words, might be artificially large.
Got real a while ago.
I don’t see how we can make the case that the UK is heading where Italy were (or are if you prefer).
cases are a poor guide at the moment we are tracking Italy very closely on deaths
this compares deaths by days after 10th death
if by say Friday we're well below Italy's equivalent number of deaths (2500) thats good & we'd hope that NHS having had more time to prepare & younger population shouldnt be as overwhelmed
days 0 5 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
UK 10 71 281 355 422 463 578 759 1019 1228 1408
italy 10 41 197 233 366 463 631 827 1016 1266 1441
But how many of the reported deaths are because of the virus, not just those who have it but died of other causes?
Daily death toll is 393
180 according to this:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
(Grep for "Daily New Deaths in the United Kingdom")
Anyone explain the discrepancy between the two numbers?
While we are currently in a bad situation
Daily death toll is 393, shits starting to get very real
whats the arbitrary cut off for shit realness?
we haven't yet (as far as I know) started turning people with a high chance of death away from hospital or ICU
and corona virus deaths haven't exceeded the "normal" UK death rate
whats the arbitrary cut off for shit realness?
Obviously, someone who hasn't read any news since January.
But how many of the reported deaths are because of the virus, not just those who have it but died of other causes?
Difficult to know because as Covid-19 is now a notifiable disease if someone dies with it, say in end stage cancer, but not necessarily because of it Covid-19 is still reported as the cause of death whereas if they had died with normal influenza the cause of death would be reported as cancer
On a slightly less serious note, has anybody else noticed a big increase in fly tipping since lockdown?
About similar here - there are a couple of quiet spots that usually collect a bit. As I'm mostly road walking at the moment I've notice the amount of litter just chucked about is incredible - that people are still finding time to chuck cans out of window is saddening. On the up - if we ever get stuck for resources - there's plenty of aluminium lying about the place.
Anyone explain the discrepancy between the two numbers?
Your username should be outofdate, if you're going to be an armchair expert at least try and keep up
Your username should be outofdate, if you’re going to be an armchair expert at least try and keep up
Asking for the explanation for the difference between the two different numbers *is* trying to keep up.
The time for politicking is not now.
Agreed, although there is scope for observations.
I doubt very much that any other other PM would have done that much differently over the last week or two.
Not as convinced on that one - not the wider life rafts. There were things there that take time to develop. Self employed vs PAYE for example. What has been pulled together in two weeks is incredible.
I do think speed of initial containment and keeping track of who and where could have been better.
Did ideology muddy the waters, definitely one for 20:20 hindsight. I think there is wider discussion into how the British state sees the British people. This is a country that was going to test the atomic bomb in East Yorkshire!
Anyway stepping away from the musings and back to the numbers.
Anyone explain the discrepancy between the two numbers?
393 was on the BBC at 15.18 so probably legit.
That worldometer site is stating 400 deaths.
Hasn't there been a one off adjustment applied to do with reporting deaths outside hospitals? Or did I just make that up?
Hasn’t there been a one off adjustment applied to do with reporting deaths outside hospitals? Or did I just make that up?
I though the adjustment was 40 extra, based on death certificates, but I may have mis-read.
Anyone explain the discrepancy between the two numbers?
180 was yesterday, 381 today (although reporting deaths has a 24 hour delay)
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
From the basic modelling i've done (assume a lot less sophisticated that TiRed's) todays number was inline with the rate of positive tests recorded a week ago.
Like people are saying the numbers are only going to get worse over the next week or so.
cases are a poor guide at the moment we are tracking Italy very closely on deaths
this compares deaths by days after 10th death
if by say Friday we’re well below Italy’s equivalent number of deaths (2500) thats good & we’d hope that NHS having had more time to prepare & younger population shouldnt be as overwhelmed
days 0 5 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
UK 10 71 281 355 422 463 578 759 1019 1228 1408italy 10 41 197 233 366 463 631 827 1016 1266 1441
I can't relate this numbers to the numbers I've found. You've got us level pegging on day 18 but Italy had twice as many deaths per day at day 18 compared to us and their graph was shooting skywards. We're on less than half the deaths per day and have decreased 4 days in a row. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-3-day-average
...and a plea. When people post numbers on this thread (or online in general) please link to the source! It saves everyone a load of googling and saves people asking (and answering) questions.
All 381 reported deaths occurred in hospitals. There has been no adjustment made.
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1244998310735331330?s=20
On a slightly less serious note, has anybody else noticed a big increase in fly tipping since lockdown?
I've actually been surprised that I haven't seen an increase in flytipping yet, and if anything, littering is down. Though as I winched my way up the first proper hill I've ridden in 9 months this morning, I noticed that the person who bought the woodland has put up a few CCTV cameras to go with the signs.
In other news, my medical appointment for my crash injury claim has been cancelled by the hospital - the consultants secretary seemed very surprised that I agreed it was a good idea.
And MrsMC has been warned that as she is duty social worker in the office tomorrow, she may have to help a colleague move a vulnerable person from the Midlands to the nearest safe place - in Scotland. I have suggested that she get her line manager to do a full Covid-19 proof risk assessment on that one 🤦
Rev. Ken is a nutter.
That worldometer site
Many thanks, that cracked it. The worldometer site has an overview page - showing 381 but when you follow the uk link it takes you to the 3 day average of 180 and the 381 number is absent! That's the explanation.
To save everyone else the bother:
The 381 number is here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The UK page with the 180 number is here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Like Kerley I've noted that the UK is closely tracking Italy (add another day to Kerley's list and they are both around 1800). Another striking similarity is that lockdown in Italy took place at about 400 dead on 9/3/2020 and in the UK on 23-24/3/2020 at about the same number.
when you follow the uk link it takes you to the 3 day average of 180 and the 381 number is absent!
The worldometers graphs seem to get updated daily at midnight. They are always "yesterdays" data.
The per-country headline figures are updated with whatever daily info comes their way, i.e. "live" and subject to change.
the UK is closely tracking Italy
My schoolboy graph has us completely level pegging, shape and size of curve.
Spain has the same shape but the size is larger, despite also introducing measures at around 400 deaths.
I'd take TiRed's analysis over anything we can come up with though.