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Best news of the day Frank!!!
@franksinatra so so glad. I randomly woke up at 4am the other day just as you posted you were going into hospital and was the first post I read! I was so scared for you I just couldn't post anything useful but I was thinking and crossing my fingers ever since.
Personal experience of the testing over in Ireland is a joke. Wife works in healthcare and first showed symptoms a week past on fri and waited 8 days for a test and still no results yet ‘famous’ people get symptoms, get tested rapidly and the results quickly too. The numbers being stated on the news as confirmed cases mean nothing - it’s only the ICU numbers that matter.
Hopefully your family gets back safely Matt.
glad to hear franksinatra is doing well!! rest up man
colleague at local hospital says its withing capacity but getting busier
ad local ice rink has just been requisitioned as an overflow morgue
as for length of lockdown, until testing is set up theres no way for the government to lift it, and it doesnt seem to be going well as hoped
https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/1244673954608041987
and this is partly why...
https://twitter.com/adbeggs/status/1244676811843403777
testing was only starting to be ramped up last week, which is a month after Germnany started doing that
Personal experience of the testing over in Ireland is a joke. Wife works in healthcare and first showed symptoms a week past on fri and waited 8 days for a test and still no results yet ‘famous’ people get symptoms, get tested rapidly and the results quickly too. The numbers being stated on the news as confirmed cases mean nothing – it’s only the ICU numbers that matter.
I don't think it's a famous people thing, but location based perhaps.
My dad went in Friday, they originally said test could take a 5-7 days, but he got his result on Sunday which isn't too bad.
I think the issue here is that whilst they don't know, they will try to isolate the individual away from other patients.
Once they know, they can be moved to a dedicated ward and mix with other Covid patients - the longer the tests take, the less likely it is that individuals can be isolated, especially as demand creeps up.
Yeah Dr colleagues have been experiencing long delays in getting test results back, at moment its managable as you say
Don't know what to make of the 3-day-average trend graph posted on the last page.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-3-day-average
The hopeful side says that we'll now track alongside Germany and France but at a lower level, the more realistic says that this is the equivalent of the temporary dips seen two to three weeks ago in Italy (March 14), and we are due to accelerate again shortly.
Is it right our official cases stand at 22,000, but we have 9000 in hospital? Not sure we can read too much into the figures if that is the case. I thought hospitalisation rates were meant to be below 20%
I don’t think it’s a famous people thing, but location based perhaps.
Exactly nothing to do with being famous. I could tested tonight and have the results within 24 hours as my employer has set this up.
Is it right our official cases stand at 22,000, but we have 9000 in hospital? Not sure we can read too much into the figures if that is the case. I thought hospitalisation rates were meant to be below 20%
They were until quite recently mostly testing people who were hospitalised, and members of the Royal family, which would account for that. If you were left festering at home, you're not part of the official figures.
Its deeply frustrating that the government keep lying to us
Johnson said we werent involved in joint EU procurement because we've left the EU, Hancock said we missed the email, Gove said it was a misunderstanding, turns out UK officials were present at meetings from as early as January
https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1244705014834233345
Is it right our official cases stand at 22,000, but we have 9000 in hospital? Not sure we can read too much into the figures if that is the case. I thought hospitalisation rates were meant to be below 20%
I would be guessing over 140,000 people here have it as 1400 have died (I am basing these figures on Germany having 67,000 confirmed with 645 deaths) That also doesn't take into account how many undiagnosed cases in Germany and also assumes that the same percentage of cases result in death in UK and Germany
I think that may over simply things. We may have more people in the system who will ultimately die because of wider community transmission earlier. So might be double that. One of my cycling buddies is hospitalised with COVID now. 50, nothing approaching an underlying heath condition
Scotlands CMO came up with an estimate of up 65,000 current cases in Scotland alone. Given an even spread that would mean 650,000 - 700,000 in the UK. That was a couple of days ago so the numbers would be up to double that now.
The world in data chart is more or less those in hospital only. @Tired will know better as they’re using ECDC data as Tired is?
Although that’s still a reasonable indicator in itself. In the short term possibly better than the numbers we’ve lost to this ****.
I don’t believe many countries beyond a number in Asia have tested enough to have anything approaching a good approximation of total infected by testing. Not enough testing exist to test with to achieve that for most of Europe. I’m honestly not sure how close Germany is?
I don’t think it’s a famous people thing, but location based perhaps.
Location could a part in exposure risk - a super spreader and a level of complacency that it couldn't happen here. I think it's fair to say celebrities have a level of detachment from the day to day world.
The level of testing is more likely to be the presence of private medical. I thought there was something in the media a while back saying you could get a private test for £300. Wasn't there also stories about a sports club somewhere testing players as a matter of course. Slightly different to being in a high risk role and having testing in place as part of looking after your workforce and keeping key workers in play.
Scotlands CMO came up with an estimate of up 65,000 current cases in Scotland alone. Given an even spread that would mean 650,000 – 700,000 in the UK. That was a couple of days ago so the numbers would be up to double that now.
I thought the UK Government suggested the hidden part of the iceberg was around 20,000 two weeks or so back. How would that have grown over the last two weeks?
Is it fair to say the current cases to deaths ratio is more one of severe symptoms to death rather than any symptoms? There's then a wider group who display mild symptoms and another wider group still of a-symptomatic. Is there anything no the different ratios?
Scotroutes wrote:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-3-day-average
/blockquote>I was staggered by this yesterday...
Is it a blip, perhaps caused by the weekend, or a real downturn?
We need to watch the deaths. AIUI they probably tell us more than new cases which are a fairly woolly indicator.
However you look at it, it isn't bad news.
That graph is only confirmed cases which again relies on sufficient testing. So the blip could be linked to testing itself failing.
OAP - Portsmouth FC tested its entire squad privately. One was positive. That was 10-12 days ago.
Telegraph reporting that the actual mortality numbers are going to be released (all covid deaths)
Expecting a sharp increase and a sharper increase to come - the mortality figures can be 11 days behind...
That graph is only confirmed cases which again relies on sufficient testing. So the blip could be linked to testing itself failing.
In multiple countries at the same time?
..but yes. Hence I wrote:
We need to watch the deaths. AIUI they probably tell us more than new cases which are a fairly woolly indicator.
In multiple countries at the same time?
Depends where the tests are coming from/manufactured/components supply chain really.
But yes, the reason it was posted was down to the same thing appearing in multiple countries.
I don’t fancy pinning any hope on it just yet. Maybe in a week or two.
I hit a proper low yesterday with the lack of proper social interaction/outdoor exercise (only have a DH bike).
But todays a new day the sun is shining, so I'm going to take a walk to some local fields with small wooded bits and see if anythings buildable. Then hit the garden and try to plan a weeks worth of stuff that needs doing
Mehr - enjoy the fresh air & turn down the news.
At yesterday’s presser, Vallance stayed they were changing death reporting as of today, but he didn’t expect it to significantly change anything.
I was staggered by this yesterday…
Is it a blip, perhaps caused by the weekend, or a real downturn?
It's all about testing
In the UK we've actually been testing less for the last few days as we are struggling to get the laboratories set up & supplied
Yay! Operation Cygnus
In the UK we’ve actually been testing less for the last few days as we are struggling to get the laboratories set up & supplied
How does that affect all the other countries in the graph?
How does that affect all the other countries in the graph?
was just trying to illustrate that the metric is only as useful as the testing is & theres understandably a global shortage of testing kits & reagents (one of the problems UK labs are facing)
If other countries testing capacities are as overwhelmed as ours then numbers will be volatille
so are we really only able to consider the deaths as the reliable statistic?
Strongly agree with that kimbers, this may have been posted already re data discrepancies. Worth a read.
FT article on data discrepancies
Yep even the death rate isnt reliable
we havent been counting people who die outside of hospital, spain includes anyone who test positive, we & others only count it as covid if other things didnt kill them 1st
Only way to really compare how countries handled it will be in the future & compare how many extra deaths above normal* level
*which itself is hugely variable
Crikey, we really are fighting blind aren't we?
I'm wondering just how easy/difficult/maybe-not-even-possible-at-all it will be for the various countries to perform rigorous testing & contact tracing, after the initial outbreak subsides.
Yay! Operation Cygnus
Helen Whateley is monumentally useless !!
so are we really only able to consider the deaths as the reliable statistic?
I think so.
Until a reliable and fast antibody test comes along and we can test everyone fast. The antigen doesn't cut it.
Having said that I'm not going to rule out a matching drop off among multiple nations as insignificant. I still think that *could* indicate the first peak. Obvs there will be more peaks as the taps are turned on and off in the coming months.
I’m wondering just how easy/difficult/maybe-not-even-possible-at-all it will be for the various countries to perform rigorous testing & contact tracing, after the initial outbreak subsides.
Contact tracing will always be impossible for most of the world. We don't contact trace for Flu for instance.
Testing, once a cheap and fast anti-gen test arrives, will be a doddle.
Testing, once a cheap and fast anti-gen test arrives, will be a doddle.
You'd imagine that supplying PPE to front line NHS staff would be a doddle, but apparently it is too difficult to do.
You’d imagine that supplying PPE to front line NHS staff would be a doddle, but apparently it is too difficult to do.
I wouldn't.
If you can source enough PPE kit why not buy it yourself and sell it onto the NHS? You'll make a killing.
Or is it not as easy as you think?
“The current virus strains are still fundamentally very similar to each other,” he said.
The COVID-19 virus does not mutate very fast. It does so eight to 10 times more slowly than the influenza virus, said Anderson, making its evolution rate similar to other coronaviruses such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS).
It’s also not expected to spontaneously evolve into a form more deadly than it already is to humans. The SARS-CoV-2 is so good at transmitting itself between human hosts, said Andersen, it is under no evolutionary pressure to evolve.
Yesterday we were talking about mutations, different strains and so on
If you can source enough PPE kit why not buy it yourself and sell it onto the NHS? You’ll make a killing.
If I'd done a dry run a coouple of years ago that told me that PPE would be needed and should be stockpiled, maybe that's what I'd have done.
And now the Goats are taking over
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-lockdown-goats-wales-animals-llandudno-nature-a9437636.html
Standing in for white mice presumably.
If I’d done a dry run a coouple of years ago that told me that PPE would be needed and should be stockpiled, maybe that’s what I’d have done.
You did have access to that report. So you'd have stockpiled enough kit to deal with a once in 100 year event? (Maybe) Shame you didn't. If you'd done so you'd be a gazzillionaire now.
Indeed you can buy up stuff for other one in 100 year events RIGHT NOW and make a mint when they happen at some point in the future.
Yet you're not, because it's not worth it.
Which is what most of the world's governments decided. (Except it probably wasn't even a decision because every department needs more money for 100 year frequency events and none of them get it. I doubt they even bother asking.)