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I thought there was some difference in the UK counting process/timing that happened over the weekend. That would move some cases from one day to the next (or vise versa). Might have dreamt that...
I'm home. I'll update on everything later but I've just walked the stairs and it felt like an altitude summit so I'm going to take some time to calm down
Four of us on the ward, the other three all moved on to ITU. I feel very fortunate
Thanks everyone for your support.
I thought there was some difference in the UK counting process/timing that happened over the weekend. That would move some cases from one day to the next (or vise versa). Might have dreamt that…
We both dreamt it then but I vaguely think that they had to contact NOK, I don’t get why.
Frank - Great News!!!!
OOB - sorry, not trying to be confusing, just not very good at links on my iPhone.
Your link ^^^^^ to the sky article on CPAPs looks interesting. Another layer to reduce the need for full ICU ventilations sounds like a positive step.
TiRed - I definitely need to step back from the news. Im home and bored with no flights, children to homeschool, and I've had my daily exercise allowance with the dogs already.
I think we need something a bit more lighthearted in here.
Is it a good enough idea for a new thread?
Maybe re-christen this one technical and have a different one for more general discussions.
No reason why rural areas will be less affected, or recover quicker, especially as some people still seem to find any excuse not to stay at home and drive to rural areas for essential dog walking, angling or birding, or whatever.
There should be less chance of large numbers of people being exposed and less opportunity for mixing. I'll caveat that with for villages / hamlets / isolated houses. Towns are going to have the same issues as cities? In once you reach a certain population density way. My suspicion is there would be more chance of people in rural areas catching the virus earlier in all of this - assumption that it's not here combined with less stringent biosecurity. Guess that's something we only see when the numbers are in.
Excellent news Frank.
Great news Frank, take it easy, we don't a relapse
OOB – sorry, not trying to be confusing, just not very good at links on my iPhone.
No problems at all, posting from a phone is a PITA!
Excellent news Frank.
Delighted for you. A work colleague has been in the same position. Take it gently. For at least two weeks. Probably more.
…and Charles’ 7 days is up as well:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52088684
Im sure he tested positive on Weds25th which means he's done 5 days or 6 at the most if Weds25th and today are classed as full days. I'm sure the protocol is 2weeks isolation for testing positive and 1week isolation for being in close vicinity to a positive even though you have no symptoms. he's made a very quick recovery, must be some superfit dude.
7 days from first symptoms, I think, rather than from a positive test...
Happy for you Frank; take it easy - slow and steady.
What do people think about lockdown exit strategy for the country. If lockdown is working and we peak in the next couple of weeks and infections and deaths start decreasing of subsequent weeks
(1) at what point do restrictions start because being relaxed
(2) which restrictions and in which order
(3) How do we avoid infections increasing again once population starts mixing
On the 3rd point I think we cant relax lockdown restrictions until testing and contact tracing is up to South Korean standards. I also think we'd prob need antibody testing as well.
So even if infection and death rates fall back significantly lockdown stays in force until other control measures are in place
What do you think?
There is a problem we're identifying with the numbers from what I hear. GP's can put a clinical diagnosis of Covid-19 down on the death certificate but with no testing many may not be and may simply be putting pneumonia. Beyond this there is a reporting lag from the weekend due to the death registration process. From looking at last weeks numbers Wednesday and Thursday's look more realistic. I can tell you from inside the hospital that numbers are starting to escalate quickly. I expect although can't be certain we are going to see very large increases in numbers by the end of the week.
fadda, yes correct. It's seven days if you're positive and have isolated alone which he did. If you're living with one or more person then it's 14days for everyone.
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-advice/
There is a problem we’re identifying with the numbers from what I hear. GP’s can put a clinical diagnosis of Covid-19 down on the death certificate but with no testing many may not be and may simply be putting pneumonia. Beyond this there is a reporting lag from the weekend due to the death registration process. From looking at last weeks numbers Wednesday and Thursday’s look more realistic. I can tell you from inside the hospital that numbers are starting to escalate quickly. I expect although can’t be certain we are going to see very large increases in numbers by the end of the week.
Telegraph and Express reported the same today...I think it's too early to read too much into these numbers as there seems to be a reporting lag.
The figures don't make sense based on Italy and Spain either, unless we have a very low CFR
olddog
Member
What do people think about lockdown exit strategy for the country. If lockdown is working and we peak in the next couple of weeks and infections and deaths start decreasing of subsequent weeks(1) at what point do restrictions start because being relaxed
(2) which restrictions and in which order
(3) How do we avoid infections increasing again once population starts mixingOn the 3rd point I think we cant relax lockdown restrictions until testing and contact tracing is up to South Korean standards. I also think we’d prob need antibody testing as well.
So even if infection and death rates fall back significantly lockdown stays in force until other control measures are in placeWhat do you think?
I was kinda thinking that we can all go about our merry way as soon as a vaccine is available. As we pretty much know, the young and the healthy are (mostly - good on ya Frank!) OK, its the vulnerable at risk - so get them vaccinated, all is good.
Anti-vaxxers and flat-earthers can be brought together into a large gym hall to decide their own fate...
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-3-day-average?country=USA+ITA+ESP+DEU+GBR+FRA
Not sure that’ll work.
Edit, nope. Anyone know how to fix that link? If it’ll work at all in a forum post?
[url= https://i.postimg.cc/NjtZ3rTQ/1-EFBAE4-B-6-FEE-4880-865-C-3-AB3-D21-DEA79.pn g" target="_blank">https://i.postimg.cc/NjtZ3rTQ/1-EFBAE4-B-6-FEE-4880-865-C-3-AB3-D21-DEA79.pn g"/> [/img][/url]
Im sure he tested positive on Weds25th which means he’s done 5 days or 6 at the most if Weds25th and today are classed as full days. I’m sure the protocol is 2weeks isolation for testing positive and 1week isolation for being in close vicinity to a positive even though you have no symptoms. he’s made a very quick recovery, must be some superfit dude.
As already mentioned with people claiming Boris is a special case for being less than 7 days since being tested, it’s 7 days from symptoms starting 14 days for someone in the same household without symptoms.
As we pretty much know, the young and the healthy are (mostly – good on ya Frank!) OK,
Woman on the BBC News just now suggesting that they are seeing more younger people in hospital than they expected. Very much mixed messages and I guess too early to tell
Woman on the BBC News just now suggesting that they are seeing more younger people in hospital than they expected. Very much mixed messages and I guess too early to tell
Younger people can still get very ill but guessing have a better chance of recovery from being very ill. Remember that A LOT of old people die of pneumonia as a final illness.
THere's quite a confusing definition of "younger person" when talking about all this. I've seen people hear "younger people are getting it" which meant anyone under 70, including those with myriad other health conditions. A few steps later someone is using this quote to scare teenagers gathering in the park.
I think the restrictions will be constantly tweaked on and off. Like turning a tap from a water butt on and off.
TheBrick
Member
I think the restrictions will be constantly tweaked on and off. Like turning a tap from a water butt on and off.
can only really be done if we massively ramp up testing
otherwise government have no clear picture where & when they can do that
they are seeing more younger people in hospital than they expected
Than who expected? Lots of people of all ages hospitalised in the countries effected more than us. ‘Younger’ people more likely to ‘recover’ though (which does not necessarily mean undamaged).
30% of under 60s among those hospitalised reported a couple of days ago for France down from 50% under 60s declared a week or so ago. French numbers are conforming more and more to other countries with a majority of over 60s as numbers grow.
While we are into graphs, has anyone compared the growth rate of posts on this thread compared to, say, MOABs Brexit thread?
Some slightly positive news for us.
My sister, husband and two young kids are holed up on an international school compound in South India. They were given 4hrs notice by the government of a full curfew - you can't even go out to get food without threat of arrest or beating by the police. In that time they got about 30 senior students into airport and onto flights with some staff, my sister and husband stayed (as dorm parent) with 15 kids and another 4 families. The police have now cut them off completely (they had a couple of locals bribing the police to bring in a bit more food every few days) and looks like 21 days of lockdown will be extended. Food is running very low.
Presently India is not on the rescue list as airports are still open - the rescue flights are focused on places with closed airports. That said, rumor is reaching them that BA are to run a flight and Foreign Office is trying to contact people to make plans, so they may get out.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52099252
I seem to think I heard someone from the Scottish government being interviewed (and being cut off quite abruptly by the interviewer) on R4 early this am (6-ish?) talking about the lockdown being here for 3 months (i.e. 12-13 weeks)?
There was a specific reference to the marked difference between Scotland’s position ‘always’ saying’ 3 months as opposed to ‘UK’ official position...
Or was I dreaming (or on drugs....)?
Matt - that sounds a nightmare. Hopefully they get out.
I've just assumed the lockdown would be 3 months from the start - it's what China did, seems to be the way the other countries are going.
Can't see schools will go back before the Whit bank holiday, possibly not till September
MCTD: yeah, I think that was the point, Scotland saying it’s three months and the Uk saying Three weeks (and we’ll see.... but it’s three months really)...
Or six... 🙄
( and I’m currently operating under the premise that the (Scottish) schools aren’t going back until August at the earliest)
Or was I dreaming (or on drugs….)?
Hard to tell, I wouldn’t be surprised by either 🙃
Hard to tell
How the hell do you think I feel?
It might just be the 10+ years ‘social distancing’ I got in in advance (wanted to avoid the rush)...
MOAB - that's shit for them and must be concerning for you; hope the british embassy are on the case.
No idea Piemonster, I'm just relaying what's reported.
There was a report last night on how the virus spread in the early stages in France. One of the main points of contamination was a religious meeting in Mulhouse from which people dispersed all over France. One nurse who attended contaminated 200 medical staff in a Strasbourg hospital. That may have influenced the early demographic making it younger than elsewhere but now things seem much the same as Italy or Spain.
One interesting report which extends yet again the times from contamination to hospitalisiation to death is in the Birmingham evening mail:
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/coronavirus-patients-dying-today-caught-18004263
It might just be the 10+ years ‘social distancing’ I got in in advance (wanted to avoid the rush)…
No official announcements but general feeling here is Spanish schools are done until the 20/21 course starts in September. Can't see anywhere else being much different.