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A couple of questions re "phased re-opening".
Is it not true that at the moment there is no definitive answer on whether it is possible to contract COVID-19 for a second time?
Could someone who has proven immunity still be carrying the virus and pass it on, or simply by contact, pick it up from a surface and infect someone else who hasn't had it by contact?
I read Prof Karol Sikora this morning on Twitter talking about ‘immunity certificates’ for those who test positive for anti-bodies.
big danger with this is everyone (me included) who doesn't think they're at risk, will be deliberately trying to catch it so they're allowed back out - or being pressured by their work to do so.
Massive base of people - some of those will then infect the at risk groups, and some will have hidden health conditions that cause them to get it badly.
Is it not true that at the moment there is no definitive answer on whether it is possible to contract COVID-19 for a second time?
Could someone who has proven immunity still be carrying the virus and pass it on, or simply by contact, pick it up from a surface and infect someone else who hasn’t had it by contact?
As far as I understand:
Not confirmed, but considerably less likely - hence the herd immunity thing. Far far less likely to get it or pass it on if most people around you are partly immune.
If the virus cant take hold within your body and replicate in the way it is at the moment in virgin victims, you'll be a much less prolific "shedder" during the incubation phase, as your body will be fighting it better. Again, not impossible, but greatly reduced.
big danger with this is everyone (me included) who doesn’t think they’re at risk, will be deliberately trying to catch it so they’re allowed back out
Absolutely this..
Basically folks would be desperate to get it so they can get back to the pub.
A certificate for essential workers to go about their day jobs however does make sense. But it should only apply to certain folks, and not be a free pass to escape all lockdown measures, otherwise it just encourages others.
the mrs is struggling to get her asthma prescription filled. though not having to travel and the reduction in traffic is helping.
Boris has now tested clear?
What a man he is. Infected to clear in 3 days. A real example to the rest of us.
Really! He looked anything but clear on yesterday's 'address' !
Not confirmed, but considerably less likely – hence the herd immunity thing. Far far less likely to get it or pass it on if most people around you are partly immune.
isnt the problem that catching coronavirus &any vaccine too only confers immunity for 6-8 months?
Do we have to have this every morning? Life is enough like Groundhog Day as it is, do we need you to be both Sonny & Cher?
Inadvertently I've been on ground hog day a bit longer. Started it just to give a bit of contact - in an oh it's him background noise way. Was wondering if I had much really to say at the moment.
Anyone else want to pick it up?
Boris has now tested clear?
...and Charles' 7 days is up as well:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52088684
Boris has now tested clear?
sure about that?
wonder if charlie will head off home now?
Inadvertently I’ve been on ground hog day a bit longer.
Me too. I'm now on week 4 of WFH and I'm sick of it.
isnt the problem that catching coronavirus &any vaccine too only confers immunity for 6-8 months?
yes but you and every other "immune" person wandering around for 6-8 months drastically reduces the ability of everyone else to catch it. The current high "R" value and proportion of people who get it "bad" is due at least in part to us as a population currently having no immunity/vaccine - expect this to go down once it's established.
A certificate for essential workers to go about their day jobs
Well they haven’t got one now and they’re expected to er carry on 🙂
I suppose the only thing to do is look at China and Korea to see what they’re doing as they seem to be more on top of this.
Me too. I’m now on week 4 of WFH and I’m sick of it.
Your beating me, I did a week of self isolation out for a couple of days and back to this. Where I'm at I'm set up for it but the lack of face to face with friends is a pain.
I have mulled over sharing the next bit - given the way the current rules impact on us. Mainly because it's the stuff we dont talk about but right now should be. Or more correctly how to deal with stuff.
The self isolation bit was tough - last time I was in on my own not going out I was happily having a solo nervous breakdown. That was 20hrs a day of OCD cleaning, as you can imagine a global pandemic where the solution was cleaning was always going to be 'interesting' experience. Anyway didn't pop - the thought of it did scare me a bit. No didn't go on a cleaning binge and yes I did have to ask a friend if it was real!
Got through it by reading / posting on here and getting in touch with people, seeking nice stuff and avoiding over exposure to the news. Day in the rabbit hole created a bit of routine - get up, avoid news, check life here, post up if there was someone saying I'm scared etc. Anyway - that's me overly sharing. If I'm Sunny and Cher then we really do have problems!
Look after yourself Boomerlives
OAP glad you managed - did you get out on your bike or walking?
Got through it by reading / posting on here and getting in touch with people, seeking nice stuff and avoiding over exposure to the news. Day in the rabbit hole created a bit of routine – get up, avoid news, check life here, post up if there was someone saying I’m scared etc. Anyway – that’s me overly sharing. If I’m Sunny and Cher then we really do have
I thought you were going stir-crazy 🙂
Were gonna get a lot more of it thou and if posting on a forum helps people deal with it then carry on.
I thought you were going stir-crazy
The off the wall thoughts are business as usual - was slightly stir crazy in but not in any more of crazy way than the rest of us going WTF is happening.
OAP glad you managed – did you get out on your bike or walking?
Have now but didn't at the time as it was symptom stuff isolation - dont mix with others stay in.
Did have time to reflect on events.
Anyway - the important thing is more how we help everyone deal with the mind game of this rather than me.
I’m better with tubeless than emotional difficulties thou.
Were gonna get a lot more of it thou and if posting on a forum helps people deal with it then carry on.
As before - if someone else want to take over the morning address. Normally I get up and think right I have something to say - today didn't really have something in mind. Also a lot more people are getting to the same places now.
Is there any indication of WHERE in the UK the concentrations of infections are (e.g. big cities? London, Birmingham, etc?) or is it pretty evenly spread? If the former then it stands to reason the the lock-down will be more effective at eradicating it in lower-concentration areas.
Official details here:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14
London is split out into its boroughs, but basically its concentrated in big cities and the south east. The further away you get the lower the rates
(not surprising due to population densities)
Boris has now tested clear?
What a man he is. Infected to clear in 3 days. A real example to the rest of us.
It’s 7 days from the symptoms starting not from the test date.
No reason why rural areas will be less affected, or recover quicker, especially as some people still seem to find any excuse not to stay at home and drive to rural areas for essential dog walking, angling or birding, or whatever.
In Shetland we had 27 confirmed cases (for what it's worth) at the last count in a population of only 22000. Though sadly I expect that will rocket as there were suspected cases in care homes and a health centre staff at the weekend. Not sure if we've had one or two airlifted from the Isles now due to no ICU here.
yes but you and every other “immune” person wandering around for 6-8 months drastically reduces the ability of everyone else to catch it. The current high “R” value and proportion of people who get it “bad” is due at least in part to us as a population currently having no immunity/vaccine – expect this to go down once it’s established.
+1 and we have no idea how long resistance to the virus lasts. 6-8 months is a total guess based on a comparable virus. That number has gained a lot of traction on STW, elsewhere less so.
Some more good news:
The medicines and healthcare products regulatory agency has approved a breathing aid that can help keep covid-19 patients out of intensive care which has been developed by a team from University College London and the Mercedes Formula One team
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1244516727368671238
+1 and we have no idea how long resistance to the virus lasts. 6-8 months is a total guess based on a comparable virus. That number has gained a lot of traction on STW, elsewhere less so.
[my uneducated opinion] the longer incubation and contagious times of this virus compared to the normal flu and colds means each branch of the virus family tree has been through fewer people over a given time frame, so less chance of it being significantly different to the one you had before/the one in the vaccine. Any experts want to confirm or disprove this?
isnt the problem that catching coronavirus &any vaccine too only confers immunity for 6-8 months?
Another bit of 'good news' hardly reported at the end of last week was that there's a decent chance that as the virus has shown to be a slow mutating virus (thank goodness or we'd be in much more trouble than we already are) so like Measles etc it's likely that a single vaccine would be enough to protect us for life.
I'm not trying to downplay the enormity of the situation, but even through this we have to remember that 'The News' will be pushing the bad aspects of this more than the good because it holds our attention more. There's a practical aspect of this because you just know there's a hardcore of people who still don't believe it's anything more than just scaremongering
Everyone has some experience of influenza, even newborns (who get a free dose of six months of maternal protection antibodies). Each year a differnt flu strain hits us (it lives in birds and pigs), but our past experience fights it off. When it doesn't appear that this is going to happen (H1N1), we reach for the medicines and mass treat - or not (Spanish flu pademic).
COVID-19 has some similarity with the previous SARS-COV1 (about 59% the same) from 2003, but almost nobody saw that virus so there is no residual immunity. Anywhere. In anyone. So this is a global experiment in the mass transmission of a novel pathogen that we have only known about for about five months. If I am being honest, compared with influenze, we've learned a huge amount in that time. The original modelling captured all that influenza knowledge and the shreds we teased from early data in China to predict.
The reason I am typing this from my self-isolating bedroom is I have no immunity. My body is generating it now like the little antibody factory that it is. If this was flu (which I had earlier, even with the vaccination), that factory had stock already. The FDA have kindly licensed my body (plasma) to be used for others, were I to be in the US. Eventually we may make these antibodies (well one clone from some lucky donor who won the potency lottery) in 30,000-100,000L bioreactors.
[TL:DR] we don't really know how long immunity lasts, nor the mutation rate at this stage. But we think that antibodies made in real people against the last virus can neutralise this one. That means we probably have protection - like tetanus, but we will need a boost (either vaccine or another round of infection)
Stay inside. Think of those who's factories don't run as efficiently as yours. Hint: elderly and anyone taking immunosuppressive drugs.
Cheers Tired that’s nice and clear.
Coming from you, I take that as a complement - BTW I didn't study GCSE Biology! :-O
Uk released morbidity numbers down for a second day in a row, as is Spain. That must be good news?
I think we need something a bit more lighthearted in here.
Who’s good at writing songs?
Just as ring a ring of roses was about the plague we need a new nursery rhyme about Covid.
Things it could possibly include: sneezing/coughing, 2m ‘social’ distancing, lockdown at home, hand sanitising, Joe Wicks, China, hand washing, one period of exercise a day, flattening the curve, face masks, Boris, Moron Trump, clapping for the NHS, working from home, schools closed, ….. any more suggestions?
We could have a go at writing one on here if you like? We need a well recognised popular tune and someone to start us off.
Is it a good enough idea for a new thread? 😄
No reason why rural areas will be less affected, or recover quicker, especially as some people still seem to find any excuse not to stay at home and drive to rural areas for essential dog walking, angling or birding, or whatever.
Regardless of how many people are turning up for a wander round, the chances of exposure either directly or via a contaminated surface in a big city, with public transport, more shared accommodation and general population density, is much higher than in rural districts.
The pictures of the Tube in London are the perfect example that even when cities are trying hard to implement social distancing, it's bloody hard to do.
Uk released morbidity numbers down for a second day in a row, as is Spain. ~That must be good news?
Linky?
Its on worldometer site and the guardian.
@martinhutch yeh, sorry. It just seemed that to suggest rural areas were going to be fine and dandy in short order isn't really the case.
180 deaths in the last 24 hrs
Let's hope it's the start of a downward trend.
Coming from you, I take that as a complement – BTW I didn’t study GCSE Biology! :-O
Hahaha! So did I.
Just as ring a ring of roses was about the plague we need a new nursery rhyme about Covid.
It wasn’t but carry on.
It might be my imagination, but the 3pm (ish) figures have been revised later in the day, a number of times, I think.
It might be my imagination, but the 3pm (ish) figures have been revised later in the day, a number of times, I think.
Aren’t they only counting after NOK informed ?
I take the ECDC 8PM figures as official: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en
Looking at a trend from one day to the next is not good practice. There may be a lag from weekend reports, for example. And I recommend turning down the media. Let's hope that f'' is indeed negative, but estimation of it from yesterday and today is not really a very good idea.
Uk released morbidity numbers down for a second day in a row, as is Spain.
Linky?
Its on worldometer site and the guardian.
I don't doubt it [1]. But I think you should post a link and also the specific morbidity numbers to save us traipsing through the data for ourselves.
[1] Well I do a bit because the Guardian says the death rate has gone up, and we know testing is increasing. It would be a bit weird if morbibity went down in spite of increased testing while deaths were going up. ...but again, I dunno, I just want to see the numbers you're referring to.
EDIT: I gave up and looked for my self. Suspect the poster was referring to this: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
The dictionary suggests morbidity means number of ill people. I can't see that, but number of new cases *and* number of deaths went down between Sat and Sun.
New cases have dropped 3 days in a row from ~3000 to ~2500.
Deaths have dropped 260 to 209 form 28th - 29th.
No idea how significant that is, but it's deffo true, and in these bleak times good news or at least not bad news.
World wide, daily cases.
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases
EU/EEA/UK, daily cases.
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
So what's going on here then? Good news, testing limits, fiddling the numbers, an anomaly, measures working?