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One if my favourite son writers critical with corona. He embodies underlying health conditions too 🙁
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5-zYNPdT1a4
edit...cant get it to post on phone
I give up 🤷♂️
Quick question for the science people:
If we have a lot of people indoors on Zwift, possibly getting regular power, cadence and HR data. Would you be able to pick up on infection trends? Would you notice a fitness change even if you didn't show any other symptoms?
Honestly you couldn’t make this stuff up. We’re all doomed.
Nah even with the incompetence the fact we’re not all wandering around infecting more people means we’re not.
Anyone know why other countries are throwing resources at disinfecting roads? There was even a video on the the Beeb of street signs being scrubbed down in Italy! Surely there is very little chance of picking up the virus in this way?
It’s morale boasting and is a visible sign that the gov is doing something and costs little but plays a big impact on people’s perception of what a government is doing for them.
Or they are worried that people may start licking them , never know what YouTube challenge may spring up 🙂
It’s a good thing.
Not getting excited yet but new cases down three days in a row according to worldometer.
Some positivity molgrips, let's hope so buddy. 🙏🏻
Dudeofdoom, agree, Italian government must be in a desperate place, anything that looks like they're doing something. 😔
Intestertingly the ‘scum’has an interesting opinion piece today.
This is worrying, given how blinkered and gullible their readers usually are
For posterity, the numbers given by the Korean doctor Kim Woo-Ju in the video:
Date - Mar 24th
8961 confirmed cases / 3166 recovered / 111 deaths
20% of cases asymptomatic
80-90 11.6% mortality
70-80 6.3%
60-70 1.5%
50-60 0.4%
40-50 0.1%
30-40 0.1%
S Korea are probably kings of testing right now so that asymptomatic figure has to be worth taking note of.
If we have a lot of people indoors on Zwift, possibly getting regular power, cadence and HR data. Would you be able to pick up on infection trends? Would you notice a fitness change even if you didn’t show any other symptoms?
Interesting line of thought there oap, my own anecdotal evidence(therefore worthless) of running a power meter on my commuter for yonks shows a drop in watts just prior to simple colds as if a battery had been taken out, a lack of oooompf before starting to show the symptoms.
yes, Italy are three weeks in, for my money at this moment in time, it looks like the halfway point of the 'total' lockdown measures. It's a hopeful sign.
@oldagedpredator - it's a bit too variable I think. Certainly being ill will affect your heart rate at a given power, but so will tiredness, stress and then there is the mismatch between power and heartrate over an interval (HR drift).
I think heart rate variabilty can identify such things better but I've not looke dinto that much
blinkered and gullible
You missed out thick, hypocritical, selfish, self righteous and xenophobic.
Anyone know why other countries are throwing resources at disinfecting roads?
I think when there's incoming fire and you can't see the enemy you tend to start firing at anything you can see.
Love the Ladybird take on it.
Intestertingly the ‘scum’has an interesting opinion piece today.
This is worrying, given how blinkered and gullible their readers usually are
Yep it’s why I’m grumpier than normal, it’s too early to be banging on about getting to normality in un-normal times.
The numbers should dictate when the new normal starts not public opinion.
Virus’s don’t give a shit about public opinion.
I wonder what the Scum will think about the prospect of another severe economic shock around the turn of the year.
You can definitely feel some influential media types getting upset about their investments, and clearly prepared to for the elderly and sick to lay themselves down and die to protect them.
The BBC is full-on 'state broadcaster in a time of war' mode this morning.
The roadsign thing - I wonder if they've had shitload of volunteers and want to give them something to do to a) look like they are appreciating the offers of help and b) make people feel like they are able to help. IIRC we had things like this during the war?
Nah even with the incompetence the fact we’re not all wandering around infecting more people means we’re not.
I was thinking of a more general sense that we'd got ourselves a govt. incapable of writing a consistent message between the front and back of a piece of paper. Doesn't bode well for the future state of the nation....
IIRC we had things like this during the war?
Pots, pans, railings etc collected to be melted down into bullets, shells, helmets etc.
Complete waste of time, but 'good for morale'. Until Beryl then found she had nothing to cook her homegrown spuds in.
Loving that Ladybird book, good find!
Not getting excited yet but new cases down three days in a row according to worldometer.
@molgrips
Yep it’s funny the new daily routines/rituals you get into.
1)switch heating and coffee machine on.
2)check world o meter.
3)check FT graph.
4)drink a lot of coffee
5)check singletrack for bllcks.
6)post some bllcks on singletrack.
7) more coffe then you tube To young Turks to see how the USA Is.
8) See what Trump has said recently and slowly shake head.
Always worrying when the people who actually know what is happening start killing themselves
I don't think we can draw much of a conclusion from a sample of one.
EDIT: ignore my comments, was thinking about the split of deaths. Not woken up yet.
I don’t think we can draw much of a conclusion from a sample of one.
That won't stop people trying.
Covid-19 has caught Dominic Cummings.
My thoughts are with it's family
Morning folks, another day in the rabbit hole
Do we have to have this every morning? Life is enough like Groundhog Day as it is, do we need you to be both Sonny & Cher?
He's not tested positive, yet.
oh I'm sure he'll meet the criteria more than NHS staff do and be tested very soon
Covid-19 has caught Dominic Cummings.
He clearly didn't run away fast enough from Downing Street. Not for want of trying - what did he look like sprinting away like that?!
what did he look like sprinting away like that?!
Like what he is.
Does that mean if he has it and passes it on it will be a new particularly nasty strain we will be dealing with.
Does anyone actually believe we’ll come out if this with sub 20k people lost?….
I have a model-based analysis that predicts the total number of cases in a country. My answer is "too early to be say". Anyone who says different knows enough to be dangerous. I say this because the prediction of total cases is exponentially sensitive to parameter estimates which are hard to estimate in the early epidemic phase. I will say there is support for the 20,000 number, but that is all. I will confidently predict that Spain > Italy > UK.
I'm validating the model for 14-day predictions based on the (global) data we have accrued, because that is how far ahead I think models can look with any precision. This will provide confidence that interventions HAVE had an effect, and is how we should communicate the utility of projection. I suspect this will become the message.
Slowly, slowly, these predictions will hone in on reasonable projections. But don't get carried away with headline figure that the media wants. It's a war not a skirmish - "Over by Christmas"...
Does anyone actually believe we’ll come out if this with sub 20k people lost?….
Hope rather than think.
Like a lot of folks I think, I've had to shut down information about this for at least during the day while I'm working. I've restricted myself to one news bulletin a day (the main eve news) and put music on for background noise. I live alone and TBH, the anxiety that all this constant barrage of "urgent" news updates and reporting the slightest update or podium blather from yet another middle ranking politician is just draining.
I work with doctors (GPs and specialists mainly, but fast getting roped into working in trusts) and dentists and while we all want to help, and do the right thing, the lack of PPE, the lack of proper rest, the lack of understanding of treatment of COVID-19 is just frightening. I'm doing more to reassure colleagues, who're largely unused to working like this than actual management...scary times.
Question for y'all.
I've got a feeling that within a few weeks (I'm trying to stay optimistic) , pretty large areas of the UK ( in Wales, Devon, possibly Cornwall and NI etc) will be all-but Corona-free.
How would we all feel if we found ourselves lucky enough to live in an area that's Corona-free, but still living under lock-down rules?
a) Hard done by. We should road-block London and other high risks areas and let the rest of us get back to our lives.
b) Just happy to be safe.
c) Torn, because the ultimate end of this might just have to be immunity by getting it and getting over it.
I read Prof Karol Sikora this morning on Twitter talking about 'immunity certificates' for those who test positive for anti-bodies. If that became a thing, i'd be sorely tempted to say 'C'. I'm not handling the restrictions well. We (work) had to ask for a volunteer to do some site work recently, I put both hands up.
b)
The other two options are just selfish, insular, and a tad Daily maily.
So what next?
I guess this 3 weeks (or more) of restrictions will reduce new cases to some degree. (Hopefully to the point where hospitals can more or less cope.)
So what then in the weeks/months/years before an antibody test/vaccine arrive? Do we turn the tap back on for a while and then off again every few weeks using the same lockdown strategy? Or can we look forward to more sophisticated restrictions ie) Certain counties/towns would be on lockdown while others weren't or nationally say people with sirnames beginning with certain letters go back to normal on a rotation basis on a rotational basis or certain activities les risky activities are allowed while others aren't?
(I'm not suggesting any of those plans specifically, merely giving examples of other lockdown strategies.)
EDIT: I *SWEAR* I didn't read PJ's post before wrote mine!
NOW IS THE TIME
To promote cycling in light of this virus.
It attacks the respiratory system, so having a strong respiratory system helps fight such infections and helps people survive.
Cycling promotes this. So the industry should press this point. Great to get more people out and about which obviously helps fitness and health levels, and currently people are very very aware of their own respiratory system, and any idea or suggestion that improves it, they are more likely to listen to now, than at any other time.
P-Jay has watched Doomsday this weekend but has got mixed up with the plot.
c) Torn, because the ultimate end of this might just have to be immunity by getting it and getting over it.
100PC PC 'C' for me and my family. I see no reason why where would be a vaccine for this any time within 14 months. In contrast I can imagine an antibody test in a shorter time frame. So I deffo want to gt this ASAP and the *only* reason I'm busting a gut to avoid it is because I don't want to pass it on.
It would make sense to open up certain areas of the country when they are ready, because of the economic impact.
Is there any indication of WHERE in the UK the concentrations of infections are (e.g. big cities? London, Birmingham, etc?) or is it pretty evenly spread? If the former then it stands to reason the the lock-down will be more effective at eradicating it in lower-concentration areas.
In Contagion everyone got given a wristband when they were immune. It would be like a reverse-Glasto, everyone with a wristband is allowed OUT 😂
“Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold”
Is our goose pretty well cooked?
If the spread can be controlled then it makes absolute sense to lift the restrictions on a geographic basis. That would particularly make sense in rural - and food growing - regions.
I'm currently envisaging a reverse-Doomsday scenario.