Not read back through everything but have we done Barrow.
Barrow in Furness is running with 804 cases per 100,000
It also appears to have some of the worst air quality in the UK
NW Mail - Barrow Air Pollution Levels
Couldn't lay my hands on it but I'm also certain Barrow has some of the worst health stats in the UK. I don't think it has a high level of ethnic diversity.
Not read back through everything but have we done Barrow.
Barrow in Furness is running with 804 cases per 100,000
It's all the things you mention in terms of deprivation and underlying health. The correlation between diabetes/pollution/inflammation and poor outcome will no doubt emerge.
But also one major employer (being defence-related, has it even shut down?) - once it gets into the yard and the communities it supports I can't see a good outcome.
Having said that, the figures will relate to Furness in general, there is a large population of retired/care homes along that coast. Kendal also was pretty bad, IIRC.
Another one here who's head is now spinning about what the advice from Westminster now is. Reading the online press you find stories about the police essentially not enforcing the rules as they know it's virtually impossible meaning parks are full of people sunbathing, having a BBQ and getting takeaway beers. How does that correlate with what the Welsh and Scottish Assemblies are saying? As for this 5 level traffic light system that's being talked about, what a load of crap. Traffic light means 3 stages: Stop, Caution, Go. Something the vast majority understand. 5 levels leaves it completely open to interpretation therefore people pushing the boundaries and promoting unnecessary movement of people. It's almost like it's deliberately crap so they can blame us for it's failure. Clear, concise instructions is what's needed not this situation where you can essentially choose the rules that suit you at any given time.
It's a complete and utter mess that can only lead to a big second spike and a return to everyone staying at home with more damage to people, the NHS and the economy. Thank God I'm in Wales and we have defined rules that I will stick to.
Excellent interview with David Spiegelhalter on Marr just now. Particularly comparing populations vs CV19 deaths; eg: there are 10M under 15's in the UK, and so far 2 deaths. Risk of death doubles with every 6 or 7 years in age
Also interesting to see the results of the study to see how far the infection has gone from the surveying of population.
Having said that, the figures will relate to Furness in general, there is a large population of retired/care homes along that coast. Kendal also was pretty bad, IIRC.
I heard Kendal was bad, so is Copeland. Not sure if the shut the yards down or just went for much stronger biosecurity. I think they made some big changes at Sellafield - rumour mill had it as having a cluster of cases.
On retirement clusters guess we are watching for what happens if it get's into the Southern England retirement towns.
I don’t hear doctors / nurses / paramedics / carers throwing a tantrum about going into work in the current circumstances. If you’re not prepared to do it, you’re not forced to. Perhaps being grateful that you have a publicly-funded job to go back to would be a better start.
What a piece of work.
there are 10M under 15’s in the UK, and so far 2 deaths
Deaths among kids is very low (but there have been more than 2, just following the news tells you that, no need for a data deep dive) but it is not the risk to them that is the concern… it is the risk of the virus spreading via them. And to a lesser extend that goes for those in their 20s, 30s, 40s etc.
I think this 5 level alert system will act as a feedback loop to manage a steady stream of the “herd” into the gas chambers. Better not close those nightingales just yet.
Just because a sign changes, doesn't mean we as individuals have to.
If you're being as safe as realistically possible, then just continue as you are. If other random idiots die, that's on them, not you.
I won't be changing my methods anytime soon. My 11 year old hasn't been near friends for 5 weeks and will remain so.
If you’re being as safe as realistically possible, then just continue as you are. If other random idiots die, that’s on them, not you.
You can’t really protect yourself as an individual, it takes measures that include everyone. Well, unless you have a private estate to escape to. Keep doing what you can though.
I find the last paragraph of your post offensive.
Likewise, either trolling or ignorant AF- MrsMC is a front line social worker having to go into people's houses to deal with the increase in domestic violence etc. Teachers on here have been angry, frustrated and understandably concerned, but have gone above and beyond throughout the lockdown, and certainly don't need that kind of ill informed sniping.
You can’t really protect yourself as an individual, it takes measures that include everyone. Well, unless you have a private estate to escape to. Keep doing what you can though
To an extent yes, but you can do a decent job of trying. It's not failsafe of course, but I'd be it increases your chances of staying safe.
Deaths among kids is very low (but there have been more than 2, just following the news tells you that, no need for a data deep dive)
ONS number, as opposed to newspapers
It may be higher because this is based on where CV19 is on the certificate, but if you use excess deaths vs CV19 there is a discrepancy but not orders of magnitude. Whether it's 2, or 5 or even 20 it is a vanishingly small risk.
Yes I agree the issue is not with the risk to them but the risk of passing on, but I was interested from his interview at public perception of risk. Essentially to U15's there is no risk.
While you’d expect a video put out by momentum not to put the govt in a good light, it’s hard to argue with what is presented here (comparison between UK and NZ)
Whether it’s 2, or 5 or even 20 it is a vanishingly small risk.
I’ve only heard of 3 under 14 in the news. But the third one was a big story on Friday (the death of an infant), so discounting them in an interview this weekend seemed rather cold.
And I still don’t get what the point is… no kid mixes only with other kids.
The only three letter motto that ever mattered was “Be more Germany”. That probably would have been a hard sell in the run up to Friday but the message Merkel gave at the beginning will have saved tens of thousands
This is serious
Do not mix unduly
Isolate yourselves if you feel at all unwell.
In Greece they closed a whole school of one child had symptoms.
It wasn’t testing it was clear instruction and self-discipline. How does the U.K. do on those two things in general. The leaking press is a disgrace when it comes to message.
BTW excess mortality in 1-14yo to Week 17 is currently -65 BELOW the 10-year average (95% CI. -90 to -41). This virus is not killing children.
Alert system seems to be another tool for educating the masses going forward, NZ have been using theirs to get the message across to the public. Lot's of tools needed over the next few years.
I think the government website has been pretty good with clear information tbh.
And I still don’t get what the point is…
Well, I have two kids in this age group both of whom have at times been terrified by the perception that it is death sentence if you catch it.
It isn't.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not arguing for a removal of lockdown, as you say the kids can still catch and transmit. And maybe creating that fear 'helps' to persuade people to continue to follow the rules, but there is a balance between creating that fear and the impact the fear itself has.
BTW excess mortality in 1-14yo to Week 17 is currently -65 BELOW the 10-year average (95% CI. -90 to -41). This virus is not killing children.
Just seen this - speculation of course but what kills U15's; eg: getting run over going to school, falling out of trees.....etc.
Well, I have two kids in this age group both of whom have at times been terrified by the perception that it is death sentence if you catch it.
Good point. Kids I know are all worried for their grandparents though, not themselves.
I feel the government and their advisors are expecting it to go very wrong. The is a number of key players in the fray who are very keen to keep their names out of the media. The press can be relied on to pursue and destroy any 'difficult' natural scientists for the acts of concupiscence which '6 or 7' Boris was lionised for. Result of all this is the government ducks responsibility for this chaos since they are 'following the science', the scientists get teed off with being misrepresented, an alternative SAGE committee is created, other countries look on in horror and Boris claims we are being admired. Experts, it seems, are only trusted when they give the 'right' advice and the rest can easily be discredited and have their careers adversely affected.
I find the last paragraph of your post offensive.
I apologise. Reading back it was very offensively phrased.
Ultimately though the choice surely comes down to keeping schools closed for the next 18 months or returning on a staged basis? Any interaction will have an associated Covid-19 risk.
RTAs and cancer account for about half.
Old data but pertinent
https://www.rcpch.ac.uk/resources/why-children-die-research-recommendations
I think my local Idiotbook page would have a meltdown at those scenes.
As CV support group did over “typical cyclists” congregating outside a bike shop.
The muddled message is an attempt to get some kind of herd immunity in through the back door IMHO. It’s deliberately muddled - they aren’t thick or useless, they are just cold, hard & calculating. Hence why Cheltenham & the LFC game were allowed to take place for eg.
I’m really not sure how much longer our economy can take this paralysis though - the sad truth is there needs to be a compromise & it’s going to be a very, very painful one too. Lives lost from Covid or lives lost from a broken economy? So many job losses & undoubtedly more to come......
I’m glad I don’t have to make that choice...
Yes I was wondering where and when they are. Bit like that Polish VE day parade video someone posted the other day, which turned out to be in Russia in 2019.
Jenrick is very clear that it's all nuance (getting away with what you can justify to yourself) stay alert means stay at home, in the first instance.
BBC News - Coronavirus: Robert Jenrick defends 'stay alert' message change
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52605879
There were pictures for Glasgow in the sunshine and it looked like the gras was pretty crowded but if you were to photograph the same number of folk from above it would have shown massive spaces.
No offence
Offence taken a maximum intensity
First one is Madrid, from the Guardian live feed this morning so I’m assuming yesterday
Second one is Palermo, yesterday article here https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/05/10/news/coronavirus_ribelli_mondello-256200029/?ref=RHPPTP-BH-I256204929-C6-P4-S1.6-T1#gallery-slider=256065585
Offence taken a maximum intensity
👍
Thanks for updating.
I feel the government and their advisors are expecting it to go very wrong
I think ‘it’s already gone wrong in their minds,which is why they are being cautious as it didn’t go down as they expected.
Someone’s up to something thou but I don’t think it’s Boris an Dom.
Ultimately though the choice surely comes down to keeping schools closed for the next 18 months or returning on a staged basis?
The first isn’t going to happen. The second is. The discussion is when and how.
The issue isn’t going to work or school,it’s how to do it in a safe social distancing way.
This isn’t going away soon so adaption is key.
Robert Jenrick defends ‘stay alert’ message change
"update and broaden"
No, no, no… clear messaging is required as we roll back from the current restrictions. A ‘broad’ message left to us to interpret is a recipe for the public turning on each other and blaming each other for their different interpretations. The message from the welsh administration was nice and clear, telling is what specific restrictions were being lifted, and stating clearly how to avoid that creeping towards no restrictions. The UK needs clear governance now, not the vague nudging “not out fault mister, we told ‘em to be alert and stay safe” nonsense. Some very difficult conversations on the way… between employers and staff, police and the public, neighbours, schools and parents, debtors and creditors, the self employed and their clients… all trying to read the runes.
BTW excess mortality in 1-14yo to Week 17 is currently -65 BELOW the 10-year average (95% CI. -90 to -41). This virus is not killing children.
Its unlike you to be lax with your use if language. Its stuff like this by scientists, taken out of context by journalists that cause issues. I realise this is just an internet chat bored so it doesnt really matter but...
The issue isn’t going to work or school,it’s how to do it in a safe social distancing way.
Exactly, but given building constraints its reaaly hard to see how this can happen in many instances and given the incompetence our leaders have shown so far many will struggle to believe what they say.
how to do it in a safe social distancing way
That’s where the ‘staged’ bit of the return to school comes in. To be clear, all kids returning to school full time means no safe social distancing, it just isn’t possible.
Is that Madrid photo so bad given what we think we know about outdoor transmission? Ignore anything not in the foreground due to the lens foreshortening affect. I wonder how many folk in that photo (who aren't obviously "together") would be flagged up on the Tracing app?
https://news.sky.com/story/stay-alert-the-governments-new-coronavirus-slogan-falls-flat-11985891
Nicola Sturgeon has said she will refuse to switch immediately to a new coronavirus slogan the UK government is expected to adopt, amid widespread criticism of the change.
It is understood the longstanding official guidance to "stay at home, save lives, protect the NHS" will be amended to "stay alert, control the virus, save lives".
But Scotland's first minister joined a chorus of disapproval at the wording of the new slogan, with many questioning the notion that people should be alert for a virus which is, by its nature, invisible.
She said she had first learned of the "the PM's new slogan" in newspaper reports and that she would not be switching her messaging "given the critical point we are at".
"The Sunday papers is the first I've seen of the PM's new slogan," she said.
"It is of course for him to decide what's most appropriate for England, but given the critical point we are at in tackling the virus, #StayHomeSaveLives remains my clear message to Scotland at this stage."
Speaking to Sky News' Sophy Ridge On Sunday, Wales' First Minister Mark Drakeford also stressed the stay-home slogan had not "gone away" in his nation.
So much for a ‘four nations’ approach…
Hard not to see echoes of the political mess in the USA between Trump and the States.
Some clarification from Boris here:
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1259440331763978240
I feel like the "Work from home if you can one" suggests a lot more businesses/workplaces opening up over the next week, and consequently more folk travelling around.
There might be bigger changes than we expect tonight.
Just a guess!
So, same advice, but different headline messaging?
I’m glad you think that is a ‘clarification’, I think it’s just leaving the public and companies to work it out for themselves.
There is nothing clear in that tweet, it’s all going to come down to interpretation.
I can see manned borders with the devolved nations.
Did I see somewhere Cornwall had done that?
WTF does "limit contact with other people" mean?
That’s up to you (and whoever the ‘other people’ are). If you have differing interpretations of that, well…
There’s going to be a lot of conflict in the next few weeks, sadly. It’s been bad enough with the mixed messaging of the last week, but I don’t think we’ve seen anything yet.
It's still the green for go border that bugs me. Not amber - caution needed. Tell people they are getting an inch but wrap it up in take a mile (but we never said that).
The geographical differences in that Sky article are interesting. My brother lives in Lancaster and I'm just outside Hastings. A tenfold difference in incidence/100k.
The big difference I can think of is we have no Industry down here. A lot of older folk and care homes - Eastbourne is famous as a retirement town. I wonder if long term damage from the old industries has left retired workers terribly exposed? Am I also correct that there are a lot of Chinese immigrant workers out on the Morecambe sands? I remember an article about a lot of deaths out there a few years back?
That’s up to you (and whoever the ‘other people’ are). If you have differing interpretations of that, well…
It's like the bubbling approach - does your bubble include colleagues. What care homes have proved is close contact causes transmission.
Just going back to schools - I see a lot about the damage of being separated from other kids. Setting people back. No one seems to be commenting on the psychological damage of bringing the virus into the home and killing off parents or grand parents.
How long before some bright spark decides schools can't be run at full capacity and the solution is more free schools. Which kind of plays into Cummings views on education.
The big difference I can think of is we have no Industry down here.
I had wondered if the heavy industry was a factor in the S Wales Valleys cluster - legacy of lung damage from mining.
m I also correct that there are a lot of Chinese immigrant workers out on the Morecambe sands? I remember an article about a lot of deaths out there a few years back?
That lead to gang masters licensing. I'm not sure the people were actually living in the area but brought in.
Re schools, the one thing I don’t see mentioned is the congregation of middle aged parents - particularly for junior schools - at the beginning and end of the school day. Surely a nice little community transmission event, happening twice daily...
Surely a nice little community transmission event, happening twice daily…
At my son's school there is a narrow ramp that leads into the pavement , teachers aren't supposed to let kids go until they see the parents/grandparents, it's an absolute scrum, 100s of parents, younger siblings running around everywhere , it's a virus gang bang !
Lots of clarifications and explaining going on in the press and we haven't even had the official announcement yet! What's the odds on Boris having chuff all to say as everything has already been leaked and blown out of the water as crap?
I had wondered if the heavy industry was a factor in the S Wales Valleys cluster – legacy of lung damage from mining.
It's 100% a factor in the valleys, lots of older people with long-term health issues ranging from breathing difficulties to physical limitations. It means there are a lot of unfit and overweight people there, both of which are weaknesses the virus exploits from what we know.
It's a similar story up in the North but they have the advantage of less people per square mile so infection rates are a lot lower. The whole of Wales seems to be paying a pretty heavy price for it's industrial past.
I realise this is just an internet chat bored so it doesnt really matter but…
</scientist> Cumulative annual mortality in children aged 1-14 up to 2020 Week 17 is significantly less (P < 0.05) than the previous 10-year average. Whilst the media has reported more than one death in children in this age group, there is no evidence that COVID19 represents a significant additional morbidity burden in the wider population of children <scientist>
FTFY 🙂 - the journalist would have reported what I wrote first time, maybe.
The likely reason may be RTA reductions, but there was some evidence that the run rate was lower before COVID19 took off - which could also be lower influenza deaths.
The Mail on Sunday, hardly a hostile rag to the government, is reporting that cabinet ministers are getting pretty pissed off with being shoved in front of the cameras while Boris is AWOL again because they're not actually being consulted on anything or even informed in advance of the decisions being made. Just handed a press release and told to get out and read it.
You don't even need to ask who's the one making all the decisions.
Boris has prerecorded his bi-weekly appearance for this evening already and won't be taking any questions
We're effectively now living in an elective dictatorship
If that is true then Boris is irrelevant to what is going on.
Boris is AWOL
It could be reports of the Bojo bounce back were greatly exaggerated. If he is suffering a symptom bingo recovery and he has been walloped a lot harder. Being in hospital being offered as evidence of that. He might not actually be fit enough to be upto the job. Which then begs the question - who is calling the shots. Alternatively after Wednesday's PMQs the risk of shake it all about Boris making an appearance and everything going off message is too great. It's all just idle speculation. I would observe we'll all find out when the official documents are released. There again if you believe some elements of the print media Team Bojo are communicating by an encrypted app which deletes the messages. We might never actually know.
Seems this has it's origin a defaced Cold War information posters. That would move the war status from Jolly to Cold on the Boris war analogy scale.
Which then begs the question – who is calling the shots.
You even need to ask?
He's de facto PM
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Nice jacket though
You know it's bad when Boris has lost the Daily Mail. Just read their web page - OK I'll wipe the keyboard now. But things really are bad.
There is nothing wrong with giving clear communication of bad news. That is the single biggest failure of the Government. Spiegelhalter is bang-on with the use of numbers.
Is it just that, having created a disaster, they don't think it matters if they make it worse? It's just crazy, absolutely crazy.
We'll get them in the Garden Centres!
Remember that research has shown that older people prefer shopping in specialist garden centres while younger people are happy to buy plants from outlets like DIY 'sheds' or the supermarket. Younger people are also much more likely to buy non-plant items like garden tools and furniture online. In general people aged 45 and older spend more on gardening than younger people. Homeowners spend more than people who rent their homes.
Taken from research for:
He’s de facto PM
But is he made from teflon? having antagonised the old guard I can't see them letting him run free. If it turned out Cumming's pet theories set the UK behind the rest of Europe or more correctly disadvantaged the money his card will be ejected. Although seeing as it's a symbiotic relationship between Cummings and Boris it depends on if Boris will give him up. No Cummings no PM playtime for Boris. No Boris no ideology sandpit for Cummings.
johnson and his acolytes are living proof of the Peter Principle.
Sturgeon, yet again, communicates clearly and unambiguously; johnson has much to learn from her.
If the leaks are correct johnson, cummings and co will have much to answer for when the necessary public enquiry takes place.
An expectation that the (english) public will generally behave sensibly and rationally is wishful thinking; some will but an increasing number have already decided they can do whatever they want to.
There is no reason to assume the R number in england will not rise above 1 in the very near future.
Is it just that, having created a disaster, they don’t think it matters if they make it worse? It’s just crazy, absolutely crazy.
This whole thing has been viewed from number 10 as a PR exercise. Its the only thing they know how to do. Because they've repeatedly got away with it in the recent past. Take Back Control. Get Brexit Done
The solution to everything is to come up with a catchy slogan then hammer it. Not this time. You can't get out of this almighty cluster**** by sledgehammering a three-word slogan in the media. As the universal derision that this mornings 'Stay Alert' nonsense has been met with, illustrates
Even the normally ever-supportive lapdogs in the right-wing media can see through this. And his own cabinet who have all but disappeared too, apart from poor old Matty Handjob, who's clearly been lined up as the fall guy for this from day one
I feel like the “Work from home if you can one” suggests a lot more businesses/workplaces opening up over the next week, and consequently more folk travelling around.
Although this isn't any change to the current existing "rules", and our local Police force have indicated that a lot of the increase in traffic last week seemed to be linked to more businesses reopening.
Going to be tricky - our civil service agency closed all our offices on lockdown and has been trickling out laptops so people can work from home since, despite the loss of our central post hub putting a blockage on the relatively small portion of our work that is "essential" under the governments own rules.
Staff are obviously reluctant to go back into the office at the present time, although we share a few sites with HMRC that are still open and operating in a socially distant way, and indeed some of our call centre staff are working with them on the virus relief schemes.
people will be going back to work..
those who were creative with their accounting are only getting jobseekers, those who were truthful have no interest in returning to work while the govt pays them out at 80%... but thats not going to last, we just cant afford it.
either give up your job and look after your kids, or open the schools?
if we open the schools... we are halfway back. But at the rate that the government is starting to lose the population (not including the hat full of lockdown lemmings in here) their choice isnt far from martial law/give up and get on.
Its a shame I've ran out of printer ink as i was going to print out a "STAY ALERT - THERE MAY BE TORIES ABOUT" poster for my window
This whole thing has been viewed from number 10 as a PR exercise.
That might be symptomatic of where we are in general with life as well as business. Managers who produce management or business philosophy that views everything through the prism of lifestyle experience. It appears style is dominant over life at the moment and that's causing a lot of problems. Just in a generally detached from the practical realities way.
Stay home. Save lives.
If it's good enough for the Welsh and Scottish...
I'd love it if we could out-slogan or own government and their crap mixed messages.
From now on I'm going to sign off everything with "stay home save lives", be great if we all did and kept it more visible than the new government nonsense.
Stay home save lives.
I’d love it if we could out-slogan or own government and their crap mixed messages.
https://twitter.com/Barcajim3/status/1259428793787265024?s=19
I think it's about time the government started taking this thing seriously.
Time to pull Boris, Hancock and Rab et al from the lectern at the daily coronavirus press briefings and put up somebody the public can trust.
My vote goes for Harry Hill.
Well, he is a doctor after all...
What I'd like to see are signs that everything mossible is being done to get people (including teachers) back to work under conditions that won't create a second wave. We've now got our supply of free masks from our municipality, Madame's school has got free masks for everybody, kids won't be let in without a mask, you can't get on a bus or a train without a mask.
Shops have proven they protect both customer and staff, the infection rate through shopping comes out as tiny in all the studies I've seen. Plexiglass, masks, banning touching things - they need to be generalise. If new slogans are needed it things like:
"Protect each other, wear a mask". The resistance to masks in crazy. They stop you touching your face, even the most basic ones reduce droplet size and viral load.
"Your hands contaminate, stop touching things". It's all very well telling people to wash their hands but they need to learn to stop touching things other people have touched or will touch.
Our environment needs to be changed to get us back to work. For years I argued with jobsworth fonctionaires at the SNCF and post office via the hygiaphones that were installed in response to a flu epedemic in the 50s or 60s. In the 90s they were taken out, they're back!
Sturgeon says 'I don't know what "stay alert" means'
😅
I roughly translate that as “what the **** are you bampots doing”