See Wales revision
https://twitter.com/channel4news/status/1258806240202960909?s=21
That’ll likely be the England scenario from Monday IMO.
That announcement stresses a four nation approach, so that does seem very likely, and welcome.
The exercise bit of that announcement is interesting, Wales again being more clear than the “UK”… they are suggesting you can exercise outdoors as often as you want now (small cheer) but make it explicit that you should exercise from your home, to your home, and stay local. As the “relaxations” start to occur, it is vital that clarity about driving to other areas to exercise, or going on long rides to other areas, just isn’t on. I doubt that the “UK” will follow that clear lead… but perhaps Scotland and NI will.
Garden centres? Why them?
Garden centres? Why them?
No real reason why they can't be set up in the same way as supermarket, and gardening provides both physical and mental benefits?
slowoldman
SubscriberGarden centres? Why them?
Do you even Daily Mail?
LHR does not test their staff,
LHR does not test anyone, so it's a wide open door - albeit with fewer people and so presumably fewer cases coming through in recent weeks.
There’s a significant mental health benefit to gardening, whether that benefit is enough to outweigh the risk I’ve no idea.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/world/americas/mexico-coronavirus-count.html
Article about the situation in Mexico. Another case of not trusting reported figures and looking at excess instead.
Garden centres? Why them?
stock has a very limited shelf life, and narrow window to sell it all- will have to turf millions of pounds worth of stock if not ables to sell.
There’s a significant mental health benefit to gardening, whether that benefit is enough to outweigh the risk I’ve no idea.
Probably a significant mental health benefit to fishing, rambling, sailing canoeing etc etc. Probably less social interaction going for a long walk in the country or sitting on a river bank 50m from the next angler than strolling round a packed gardening centre. Why does gardening get special treatment?
As a data nerd, there is some superb visualisation coming out of all this.
https://twitter.com/victimofmaths/status/1258783876870176770?s=21
Really? Care to explain
Well I like it. Got pretty colours.
Why does gardening get special treatment?
I guess encouraging people to be active in their own gardens reduces the risk of them breaching the broader social distancing rules while doing it. I can't see that rambling and canoeing aren't allowed, walking running and cycling are suggested exercise types, not the only ones?
Have a lot of sympathy on the fishing front, I know a lot of people use it for mental well-being.
Meanwhile, better late than never?
BBC News - UK 'to bring in 14-day quarantine for air passengers'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52594023
Why does gardening get special treatment?
Not enough old people have died so the pension bill is still too high, open garden centres, that will solve it! Need to get the furlough cash back somehow!!!
Or as above, because they are lower risk and high reward and people will stay in their garden if they have things to do and it looks nice!
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fped.2020.00206/full
This doesn’t appear to say they don’t have the receptor, more that there are higher levels of circulating ace-2 in the blood in children.
I personally don’t believe that the infection rate is much lower in children than adults, more that they fight it off so quickly it makes it very hard to detect.
From the link tired put on here yesterday, it might be worth at a later date looking for cd4+ t cell reactivity to sars-2 spike protein as that may be a better indicator of infection levels over antibody detection. Mainly as I wonder how long any antibody response will remain detectable
Thanks Graham. I think Occam's razor say your theory is right. I don't question it when my young kids shrug off illness/bike crashes/falls. I just accept they have sky high immune systems and bendy bones. If kids get CV mildly and recover from in fast that explains why they don't suffer much and haven't (yet) been recorded passing it on without the need for any complex explanation.
Thanks for the link.
politicised
Eh?
As counterpoint (and I don’t know what the local circumstances were, and it’s not peer-reviewed, and I don’t know what they controlled for or how, and … )
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1All identified outbreaks of three or more cases occurred in an indoor environment, which confirms that sharing indoor space is a major SARS-CoV-2 infection risk.
Yeah. Even if you think being inside of itself carries no greater risk than being outside it's usually far easier to social distance outside. It would utterly fly in the face of what we know about respiratory viruses to suggest they are not more transmissible inside that out. It's not coincidence that Flu spikes in winter.
fishing, rambling, sailing canoeing
Those are all allowed, except fishing and fishing would be allowed if you could credibly make the case that it's exercise.
garden centres
Makes no sense to me. People aren't allowed to go out except work and exercise. So even if Garden Centres are open nobody's allowed to go to them:
The regulations specify maintenance and upkeep. This does not extend to renovation and improvements.
https://www.college.police.uk/What-we-do/COVID-19/Documents/What-constitutes-a-reasonable-excuse.pdf
Still no surfing or driving somewhere quiet to ride but I can go out and clog up my already packed local cycling/walking routes as much as I want, madness!
Still no surfing or driving somewhere quiet to ride but I can go out and clog up my already packed local cycling/walking routes as much as I want, madness!
I share your frustration, but rules have to be simple. A vast number of outdoor activities are collateral damage in this.
(You *can* surf as long as you're fairly near where you want to surf.)
(You *can* surf as long as you’re fairly near where you want to surf.)
Maybe in Cornwall but here in Wales the facebook police would hang you!
Most carparks are closed anyway.
It’s not coincidence that Flu spikes in winter.
Is there any good data on what is the most significant route of flu infection? Is it breathing in the flu virus or is it touching infected surfaces?
Of course, correlation with being indoors more makes perfect sense for the direct infection from aerosolised virus. But, my understanding was that the Winter spike in flu was actually due to the cold temperature and low humidity which means the virus survives for longer on contaminated surfaces. WRT to flu, basic hygiene can be used to offset some of the risk associated with being indoors for longer.
I’ve no idea how this applies to SARS-CoV-2. How is its viability affected by the temp and humidity?
the facebook police would hang you!
Yeah, I fully take that depressing point. 🙁
the facebook police would hang you!
Probably the same ones having VE parties yesterday.
BBC News – UK ‘to bring in 14-day quarantine for air passengers’
How are the BBC falling for this blatant 'Look, a squirrel!' nonsense? We have the worst infection rates in Europe, any quarantine would be for the protection of the new arrival, not vice versa. Plus there are virtually no bloody flights!
I can only assume they churn out this kind of shite in the middle of a BH weekend because most of the sensible reporting staff aren't around to spike it.
After all, who the **** gave the green light to this report?
https://twitter.com/sev_kudu/status/1258831786169286657
covid is very different from the flu. unfortunately it is the closest analogy in many peoples minds, so they are assuming the risk of transmission is lower going into the summer. it could lead to a second wave.
Is there any good data on what is the most significant route of flu infection? Is it breathing in the flu virus or is it touching infected surfaces?
It's both:
http://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2014/the-reason-for-the-season-why-flu-strikes-in-winter/
...but winter/summer is a tangent. The articles above are saying respiratory viruses spread better inside.
This isn't about winter/summer. This is about inside/outside.
(Having said that, people who think Winter will pose no additional risk for CV and other respiratory diseases are naive to say the least.)
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1258665220844720134?s=21
https://twitter.com/tim/status/1258649318648614912?s=21
How are the BBC falling for this blatant ‘Look, a squirrel!’ nonsense? We have the worst infection rates in Europe, any quarantine would be for the protection of the new arrival, not vice versa. Plus there are virtually no bloody flights!
Does seem remarkable that we haven't done this sooner , but it's months late now, and many weeks behind what other countries have done, my mate & his gf were shocked when they flew back from New York in mid March when everyone from their flight got onto the picadily line to go home
Who could've ever predicted that the government's version of the app wouldn't be as good as the Google one?
Does seem remarkable that we haven’t done this sooner , but it’s months late now, and many weeks behind what other countries have done, my mate & his gf were shocked when they flew back from New York in mid March when everyone from their flight got onto the picadily line to go home
I can see the logic. People coming in at the moment are coming into lockdown so less likely to spread CV.
As we are gradually released from lockdown the need to check people coming in increases.
Who could’ve ever predicted that the government’s version of the app wouldn’t be as good as the Google one?
Am I the only one that thinks its a bit too convenient that the much derided centralised app approach is suddenly 'creaking'. Sounds to me like they just had terrible take up and someone's decided to blame performance problems.
Apparently the Neil Ferguson model was not very good. Any of the IT bods on here have any comment on this.
I'm not putting too much faith in an anonymous author on a website called "lockdown sceptics".
Am I the only one that thinks its a bit too convenient that the much derided centralised app approach is suddenly ‘creaking’.
Probably. Uptake has been huge where it has being tested. The technical problems are bloody obvious to anyone who’s ever developed an app for iOS, or read anything by anyone who has as regards the problems facing the route they took. This is what happens when Cummings&Warner&Warner are left to make the decisions.
Hopefully the French will soon be alone in their approach. And then we can have some headlines in the UK papers about how foolish they are…
It’s both
Did you read the blog you pointed me to?
Although other factors probably contribute as well, the main reason we have a flu season may simply be that the influenza virus is happier in cold, dry weather and thus better able to invade our bodies
Danny Dorling in at 49 min
After all, who the **** gave the green light to this report?
BBC went spraytan decades ago. It’s all social meeja now.
We still have 5000 new cases diagnosed per day. What is the main vector for those? Govt scientists have said community transmission is low, so where is it happening?
Govt scientists have said community transmission is low, so where is it happening?
Being passed around within care homes
We still have 5000 new cases diagnosed per day. What is the main vector for those?
The fact we are finally testing people?
We walked to the local free mask pick up point this morning. There was a short queue for pedestrians and two long ones for cars. I'd forgotten just how disgusting a traffic jam of idling diesels smells. There are some things about confinement I'm going to miss.
Zero new cases locally for a while and zero new cases in 64 for a few days now.
Hope the case levels keep under control there Ed.
Locally the overwhelming majority are being sensible, still the odd 🛎 end around admittedly.
’m not putting too much faith in an anonymous author on a website called “lockdown sceptics”.
Despite the fact that the website is run by Toby Young, there is intelligent debate there beyond the headlines. The first call of being a scientist is to be sceptical. It’s given me a few pointers anyway (TSA was one).
The counter comments to that article were equally reasonable, about the use of academic programming to solve one problem, rather than professional coders writing to keep an airbus flying.
Echo chambers just give you echos. That said, I won’t be downloading the Daily Mail app any day soon! There are limits to my scepticism.
Something I've been wondering: death stats on worldometer for the UK have been falling, but new cases are mostly flat. Is this due to better testing and diagnosis?
I'd be intereted to see some recent intensive care survival rate stats, Molgrips. I noted the same for France about three weeks ago. Cases were still high but the death rate improved. At about the same time doctors were reporting success in managing intensive care patients with new protocols, particularly in patients with runaway immune responses.
We still have 5000 new cases diagnosed per day. What is the main vector for those? Govt scientists have said community transmission is low, so where is it happening?
Care homes and hospitals, community transmission is about 0.5, but 0.9 overall
(according to peston the other night )
If I read the Guardian I also try and read the Daily Mail. Both can have good journalism, but both can also be echo chambers full of opinion and biased frames of reference.
& while we are arguing whether a two hour ride is acceptable...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52587368
^ a 2hr ride isn't acceptable
https://twitter.com/MPSHackney/status/1259128381452533761?s=19
Honestly I give up. I don't blame people going out (so much) but those in power who didn't make hard and fast rules/laws
For all those in the park, half the forum have been taking the piss with bike rides for the duration of the lockdown
The government are spending 2 bn pounds on increasing cycling infrastructure.
a 2hr ride isn’t acceptable
Why?
half the forum have been taking the piss with bike rides for the duration of the lockdown
In what way?
Let's not derail this thread with the same arguments we've had on other threads please.
The Gov gave some signals a few days ago that the lockdown in the strict sense would end early next week, hence people have now decided that it's ended already.
R will surely go >1 soon and Covid isn't going anywhere. You won't catch me socialising.
It was never a strict lockdown and yes people have definitely decided it's being relaxed, accelerated by B & Q reopening and yesterday's jingoistic bellendery.
& while we are arguing whether a two hour ride is acceptable…
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52587368/blockquote >And yet every time I’ve been out, I’m pretty much the youngest around (43 & 3/4).
The white women in their 50/60’s walking on opposite sides of the path chatting seems to be a particular favourite.
The white women
Whats the fact they're white got to do with it?
And how do you know they identified as women?
How many of us ever caught a regular cold from going out to the park or the beach on a sunny day, compared to being stuck in a stuffy office with a sneezing co-worker, or sitting next to someone sniffling away on the tube?
a 2hr ride isn’t acceptable
No, it's fine, if you are excercising responsibly and remain socially isolated.
Probably. Uptake has been huge where it has being tested. The technical problems are bloody obvious to anyone who’s ever developed an app for iOS, or read anything by anyone who has as regards the problems facing the route they took. This is what happens when Cummings&Warner&Warner are left to make the decisions.
IMHO the issues with using the Bluetooth in a way the os and hardware developers didn’t envisage so you’ll really need them to come up with something a bit innovative that doesn’t kill the battery.
There’s really not much to the nhsx app once you ditch the Bluetooth code.
The back ends google hosted so should be more than capable.
They’ve actually not done too bad with what they had to play with tbh.
Am I the only one that thinks its a bit too convenient that the much derided centralised app approach is suddenly ‘creaking’.
There's now 3 options for the presonal privacy sceptics - no app, apple/google app, cummings app.
Option 3 being eliminated leaves the apple/google version as the sensible middle ground.
People who were either too lazy or too stupid to find out the basic concepts of how the A/G app works - what data about you it collects etc - have now found out due to the multitude of articles and infographics on the subject.
It's Ok, Boris has it under control, he's rolling out a Covid alert system so we know how serious a threat it is. The same system worked so well for terrorism it erradicated it, oh wait, no it didnt make the slighest difference. Straight out of the Oh look a squirrel playbook.
Just read about that alert system.
What utter bollocks. Great way of making people complacent though if we are rated at "4 out of 5" etc. Makes the government look like it's doing something too I suppose.
Reeks of Cummings bs.
Really not sure where to post this, it’s connected to C19, to the 5G conspiracies, and to @AngryTinkerbel, as well as right-wing, QAnon ass-hattery in general, but bloody terrifying for what it says about modern society in general is what it is...
Hmmm, not sure why the link to the NY Times isn’t showing properly...
So after the mysterious "Frenchman tested positive in December despite no link to China" story, this one looks a little more possible, but can't be verified. No idea how common Wuhan-UK travel would have been at the end of last year, or we'd have been hearing more stories like this by now I'd have thought?
BBC News - Coronavirus doctor's diary: The strange case of the choir that coughed in January
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52589449
The mysterious Frenchman has a wife who had contact with Chinese working in a Sushi bar. The wife is thought to have been the asymptomatic carrier.
More worrying is teachers who caught the virus at a meeting to prepare the return to work having been in confinement for about 7 weeks. One of them had the virus after being confined to the family group for much longer than is needed to elimininate it according to all the theories presented.
Lord knows whay they had a physical meeting, at Madame's school with 1200 kids all the preparation was done by video conference.
You know, I’m not well educated about such things but I am hugely instinctive. For the last 24hrs my head’s been buzzing . I’m absolutely convinced something very unusual Is going on with this lead up to this announcement.
It’s beyond logical that the lemming like society like we now appear to be has been led to the flamboyant dismissal of Lockdown - both politically and in society. I find it strange to believe so many are so ignorant or so stupid, how can this be? Here we have a virus of which we’ve only just coped and 10’s of thousands have died and surely more to come, yet - in general - some people are parading around in a near normal state.
im not sure of the press with it’s isolated pockets of enhanced reporting about gatherings and street parties is to blame for my gut feelings. I’ve seen more traffic on the roads but also completely empty natural places of interest. People walk apart from one another covered with gloves and mask yet push past you in a small space. Transport is down and the environmental impact is decreasing temporarily, we are confined, yet we’re free to publish and be lead by utter BS in the media.
I’m not sure if I’m going stir crazy over what I’m being fed by the media, I’ve come to realise how stupid we all really are, or something else. I really wish - and it’s not beyond the wit of a semi intelligent person - we end up with a series of clearly defined rules for the next phase. However, by 8pm tonight I bet we are all puzzling over what it means when we wake up Monday.
Ah well, I’ll put the beer to chill...
Nudge, nudge, nudge…
Indeed - although more of a shove in this case. Jumping straight over amber.
Seems to be the usual leak fest this morning. BBC was reporting the government is going to have a five point virus status scale 1 Lowest - 5 Highest Threat. We are apparently at level 4 moving to level 3. That would appear to most people to be moving to the mid point. Perhaps an amber status - using the standard risk traffic light system. Yet we seem to have jumped over amber to green.
You have to wonder if it's design or incompetence to ignore the accepted scale. If it's design surely mixed messages / risks of going for green were flagged up at the design stage. Doesn't exactly help get out of the phoney war conspiracy zone with this one.
I think the message is reasonable with a little guidance as to what it means but the colour in the background projects a slightly different message.
Stay Alert for what, exactly? Some suspicious-looking pathogens sneaking up your road?
Control the virus? What, stick a jam jar over it and call for a doctor?
Nebulous, meaningless shite, purposely put out so the government can abdicate responsibility for its failure to suppress a second (and third) peak by its weak lockdown in our cities, and the lack of proper test and trace now. Everything can just be blamed on the public.
With every week that passes, I am becoming more convinced that the overall strategy was to control the epidemic only to the degree where it could still be blamed on someone else.
Yep, show common sense when looking out for those microbes. Duck, weave, blow hard and do a runner, Boris will show you
I counted over 100 people at the beach yesturday . Car park half full, large groups of people milling around or walking along the foreshore
No BBQ's ,but it was past 5pm. Have a feeling the 'important announcement' and media hype about lifting of restrictions has been taken as 'end of lockdown.-its safe to resume what you used to do' .
Silly thing to do this week imo. Another week and some better planning is needed.
One of them had the virus after being confined to the family group for much longer than is needed to elimininate it according to all the theories presented.
One anecdote is not data.
The teacher could have caught it from any surface or person outside the home, or while shopping. It can survive for a predicted two years in a domestic freezer, for example.
Even the dimmest person can see that social distancing hasn't taken place between kids - probably why it had such little effect - so a classroom might be, statistically, relatively safe compared to anywhere frequented by adults.
I don't hear doctors / nurses / paramedics / carers throwing a tantrum about going into work in the current circumstances. If you're not prepared to do it, you're not forced to. Perhaps being grateful that you have a publicly-funded job to go back to would be a better start.
Is being concerned about PPE 'throwing a tantrum'? I don't like your tone. Not hearing from doctors doesn't mean they're not concerned but it's made very clear that negative PR is not good for career development. Teachers are very exposed and unprotected.
Even the dimmest person can see that social distancing hasn’t taken place between kids – probably why it had such little effect – so a classroom might be, statistically, relatively safe compared to anywhere frequented by adults.
Could you explain what you are trying to say here it makes no sense.
I don’t hear doctors / nurses / paramedics / carers throwing a tantrum about going into work in the current circumstances
I havent heard teachers complain either tbh, they are still going into work and did throughout the Easter holiday and bank holiday friday. These teachers are also still working from home.
With every week that passes, I am becoming more convinced that the overall strategy was to control the epidemic only to the degree where it could still be blamed on someone else.
I too wonder this, with the smoke screen being NHS coping strategy albeit tinged with realism. This weekend as people have said is likely to be pointed as as our fault. I noted above someone pointed out that police helicopters were circling a street party - if a lockdown was strictly enforced why were the cops called in to break it up?
I’m slowly being convinced that VE days, media leaks and bank hols are being used as exposure events to facilitate a stealth herd immunity programme. I bet Cummings is rubbing his hands with glee over the weather forecast.
Reasonable up to the anti-teacher last paragraph Flaperon.
Where is there any indication that Madame or any other of her teaching colleagues is throwing a tantrum about going back to work? Nowhere. She not bothered, she's probably had the virus anyhow and is on the priority list for the antibody test if ever our gouvernement validate one.
I find the last paragraph of your post offensive. You still have time to edit it. Teachers were among the first casualties here, they were in contact with kids returning from ski holidays before the medical profession.
Doctors/nurses/paramedics/carers are no more forced to go to work than teachers. They can all walk out any time they choose but very few do. Exactly th esame with teachers. Check out the teachers on this forum, they are still working and there are no tantrums about working.
With every week that passes, I am becoming more convinced that the overall strategy was to control the epidemic only to the degree where it could still be blamed on someone else.
That would be The Phoney War problem.
So long as they explain what being alert is other than your country needs lerts it should work. I am more concerned about the green hatching round the edges sending out the green for go message in the background. To me it conflicts with an alert.