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Lol funky!!!
So company directors no 80% of dividend for us poor souls....
Lancet dude laying into the government
Latest update from John Hopkins is that US now has more confirmed cases than any other country; shit now getting very real over there.
That, combined with a clueless leader, is not a good mix.
Colleague has been off with fever, aches, cough, tight chest and loss of smell.
100% sure was never tested, and got no further than 111 advice to stay at home so I reckon those stats are hospital based only.
Friend of mine who ended up in hosp due to breathing difficulties, tested positive, and is now well on road to recovery says loss of taste and smell is happening to her too.
Lancet dude laying into the government
Listened to QT while cooking in the kitchen. He put in a good shift and gave the government the kicking it deserves. As an aside, QT should be done like it’s been done in the last few weeks in future - much more enjoyable without a rigged audience full of ****s.
Agreed.
The US situation actually worries me, for it's impact on the world economy generally, but also because I don't trust the knob in charge not to do something crazy if the shit really starts hitting the fan over there.
What's really weird is that his opinion poll ratings are now at highest ever!?!
America has more hospital beds per capita than any other country.
They really should be able to deal with this, scary that trump is constantly trying to wish it away
Id like to think this is the point where even his fans realise their emperor is butt-naked , but they wont
My posts about covid-19 in the US are based on my general interest in the states and/but much more importantly....one of my sons lives in upstate NY with his american wife and their 2 yr old son - my first grandchild.
Trump is so far out of his depth with a hollowed out fed system; since spanish flu, which originated in the US, every war - military, cyber, epidemiological - has been 'fought' by the US without it hitting their shores (9/11 excepted, obviously).
Now - something long predicted in general terms and, specifically, this specific time with plenty of warning - the shit is on their door-step.
At a time when they need leadership, they don't have it.
I fear this will so destructive in and of the US.
Johns Hopkins now stating 532k confirmed cases at 1.26am Friday.
At this rate of growth, will be at least 600k by noon on Friday.
I'm sure the 'leader of the free world' (who he?) will step upto the mark.
Morning, another day in the rabbit hole, another day on planet you - take care, be kind.
What’s really weird is that his opinion poll ratings are now at highest ever!?!
I don’t think that’s the Donald’s doing, I think that’s a result of the position. Crisis = rally round the nation’s figurehead/uptick in patriotism
At least to start with.
It's like a war, the fools cheer until the body bags start piling up.
France continues on its exponential upwards trend of both cases and deaths despite being on the 10th day of confinement. Each time there's an update on how long this is going to last it's longer.
Reading around the European press it's becoiming clear to me why the graphs of some countries are much worse (steeper) than others, it's the level of initial contamination:
Spain (Madrid) got a large initial dose due a mass of football fans traveling to Italy for a game when a lot of Italian fans were contageous and then Spanish fans traveling to games around Spain. Other countries such as France have had more of a drip, drip, drip exposure form business travelers and tourists.
After the initial contamination the evolution might have something to do with national habits such as hand shaking but to me it's clear it's the amount of people initially infected before the population realises what's going on and reacts that sets the trend.
Once in motion it's becoming clear from Italian, Spanish and French experience that stopping it takes longer than expected. There's a reservoir of infected people that takes a long time to work through. The 3-6 day incubation period based on Chinese reports just has to be too low for the numbers of new cases to be calling the SAMU and hitting French hospitals 10 days into confinement, especailly as at least a week before that people were already avoiding close contact, handshakes and bises.
3-6 day incubation period based on Chinese reports just has to be too low
Not sure what you're getting at here. The average time is 3-6 days. It's already well known that the actual period is up to 10 days; hence the 14 day isolation if someone in your household shows symptoms.
The Italians shut down on 9/03/2020. Now have a look at their daily new cases graph:
And explain to me where the new cases are coming from given that if there was already an infected person in the household 18 days ago they should have infected their cohabitants within 3-6 days on average (and up to 10) as you say and those they infected would become cases in 6-12 days onaverage (or up to 20) so how do you explain why new cases aren't falling away quite quickly now? Unless the declared average incubation is too low, or the's something else going on.
America has more hospital beds per capita than any other country.
USA is 32nd.
Sorry that's ICU beds that they have most of per capita & what's needed now
They arguably have best healthcare in the world.... For those at the top
Will they socialiae their healthcare tho ?
France continues on its exponential upwards trend of both cases and deaths despite being on the 10th day of confinement.
Check CoVID 19 Growth Rate
Look at "Western Europe, Confirmed Cases Per Million Inhabitants".
France is rising, but slower, 10% daily now. It is slowing. Italy is only now in a similar place. The French lockdown was earlier in the infection. You are in a better place than Italy.
Spain is worse. Only just slowing now. The deaths are rising very quickly. I think they must have had so very many undetected cases that are now coming to light. They are headed for a big number at the end of this.
UK, I think will look more like France. Not entirely clear yet just from data, the numbers are too small and noisy.
And explain to me where the new cases are coming from
Incubation times I have read quoted up to two weeks. Then you have the same for the remainder of a household. Plus, lockdown is/was not Chinese, military style, barricaded into houses, right from the get go.
And, 50% (or whatever the figure is) are asymptomatic. Some are very mild, may not even be noticed as C19, might just think "a cold".
More positive [1] news. Professor Adam Finn on R4 just now saying it's highly likely that people who've had CV *do* get resistance and in the rare cases where people do get reinfected it's it's not serious. I know it's been suspected all along but it's nice to hear it.
And explain to me where the new cases are coming from given that if there was already an infected person in the household 18 days ago they should have infected their cohabitants within 3-6 days on average (and up to 10) as you say and those they infected would become cases in 6-12 days onaverage (or up to 20) so how do you explain why new cases aren’t falling away quite quickly now?
Lockdown has halted new infections in other countries so I guess the conclusion is that many Italians aren't properly following the lockdown. I'd be *very* wary of concluding that lockdown doesn't significantly reduce transmission.
Obvs I'm using the term 'lockdown' to mean 'lockdown' in the European sense, not the Chinese sense.
[1] Or negative news for those who see it that way.
Unless the declared average incubation is too low, or the’s something else going on.
Or quarantine is leaky, high population density housing, essential shopping still causing contact & spread, secret visits to your mistress etc
New cases only confirmed by testing so there could be a wider pool of infected out there , range of % asymptomatic is big-oxford study in news this week, away from the headline said that small changes to input assumptions give a big range of output (I've seen anything from 20-80%)
Until widespread random serum testing is done to find out % that has had it & asymptomatic , very hard to know
What’s really weird is that his opinion poll ratings are now at highest ever!?!
Bloke on R4 said it seems like he's saying reassuring thing but accepting reality and *doing* the things that need to be done. I not following current affairs in the US at the moment, so I've no idea it that's true, but it would certainly explain high opinion ratings.
In other news, Derbyshire Police are probably regretting using social media to appeal for help to locate a prisoner who has absconded from the open prison.
At the best of times, it brings out the frothing Daily Heil hang 'em and flog 'em brigade. To lose a prisoner when everyone else is in lock down 🤦
You don't want to lockdown so hard that you stamp it right down. You just need to maintain the number of new cases down enough to get as close to the ICU capacity line as possible. If you restrict spread too much, it will pop up again as soon as you lift restrictions.
We need to significantly reduce transmission, but not completely remove it. This thing has to go through the population, just hopefully not all at once.
If you can delay cases into the summer, then by then we should know whether any combination of antivirals or other interventions can reduce mortality and morbidity (organ damage etc).
Supermarket opening times, this is more for illustration than taking any particular shop:
Key workers - first hour eg 08:00 to 09:00
Vulnerable / old - second hour 09:00 to 10:00
The Masses - 10:00 to close
We would seem to have - highest risk of exposure, highest risk of severe symptoms then the rest stacked. We're also potentially mixing the people on the front line.
Anybody else thinking there needs to be less mixing and more separation? Extending key worker only periods and closing for a clean period in between each?
And explain to me where the new cases are coming from given that if there was already an infected person in the household 18 days ago they should have infected their cohabitants within 3-6 days on average
3 people in the house. 1 is infected they and the other 2 follow the guidance to try and stop it spreading. At day 7 of the infection no. 2 gets infected the symptoms don’t show for 3 days in their case, that’s 10 days. Numbers 3 doesn’t get infected until day 15 and now at day 18 is showing symptoms. Hence 3 weeks lock down for now.
Professor Adam Finn on R4 just now saying it’s highly likely that people who’ve had CV *do* get resistance and in the rare cases where people do get reinfected it’s it’s not serious. I know it’s been suspected all along but it’s nice to hear it
But I also heard/read somewhere that the coronavirus family immunity was typically only 6-8 months, so if this variant follows that we could be in for a second big wave later if it's not well contained by then as it's still unlikely a vaccine will be ready anywhere near that time frame. We really should be focusing on therapeutics now so that if a second big wave does hit we already have the treatments in place to deal with it without requiring so many ICU cases
Incubation times I have read quoted up to two weeks. Then you have the same for the remainder of a household. Plus, lockdown is/was not Chinese, military style, barricaded into houses, right from the get go.
I suspect the effectiveness of self isolation in a shared residence will also extend transmission times.
You don’t want to lockdown so hard that you stamp it right down. You just need to maintain the number of new cases down enough to get as close to the ICU capacity line as possible. If you restrict spread too much, it will pop up again as soon as you lift restrictions.
We need to significantly reduce transmission, but not completely remove it. This thing has to go through the population, just hopefully not all at once.
+1
Wasn't this the much derided 'herd immunity' concept?
I follow all that, Drac, and still think it points to a slow down in new case at about the point into confinement Italy is now and yet yesterday was a bad day for new cases.
On the treatment front there was one of the guys in Germany who is running that front on Eins Extra yesterday.
He went through Interferon which works well early on in infection but makes matters worse used late based on pervious experience with SRAS etc. A Japanaese tratment which is available to market and could be used immediatley without further tests if proved sufficiently effective, and of course Chlorquinine which the Doc in Marseille is promoting and getting some abuse over. The conclusion was that there's nothing really effective that's proven safe that's going to be widely available quickly. 🙁
Professor Adam Finn on R4 just now saying it’s highly likely that people who’ve had CV *do* get resistance and in the rare cases where people do get reinfected it’s it’s not serious. I know it’s been suspected all along but it’s nice to hear it.
Did he mention how long people are immune for, with other coranaviruses , it's only. 6 mths or so (not sur if that's due to new strains or short lived immune response?)
Wasn’t this the much derided ‘herd immunity’ concept?
Yes & to keep numbers manageable for NHS you'd have to keep lockdowns in place for many (10+?) years & still see 10s (100s?) of 1000s of deaths.
But I also heard/read somewhere that the coronavirus family immunity was typically only 6-8 months, so if this variant follows that we could be in for a second big wave later if it’s not well contained by then
Firstly I'd like to see that 6-8 months estimate - it seems suspiciously specific! ...but taking it at face value at that point it will be staggered as people lose their resistance and the hospitals will be more able to cope.
...but even if all that is wrong, if people get some kind of resistance once they've had this AFAIC that's far better than *not* getting resistance. [1]
[1] For those of us who regard less infections and deaths as a good thing.
And explain to me where the new cases are coming from given that if there was already an infected person in the household 18 days ago they should have infected their cohabitants within 3-6 days on average
For the same reason the ones quarantined with the infection spread it on those numbers have now come through. So in another week to two they should start falling again.
Kimbers, where did you read we would need 10+ years of lockdowns from?
As for the herd people, do you really want soemthing three times as easily transmitted and 10 times as deadly as flu doing the rounds like colds do now? IIRC there are about 200 variations of the common cold and many of us go through a good many of them in life. This thing will mutate and like colds you'll catch the ones you haven't had even if you've got resistance to others. 1918 flu killed millions and how many has the flu in it's various mutations killed ever since, lots.
Unfortunately this virus is well and truly out of the bag and like flu we'll probably end up protecting the vilnerable with a never ending series of vaccins.
I don't think it's a good idea to expose more people than the health service can cope with to the virus until the first of the vaccins is available or a reliable treatment to reduce symptoms is validated.
The herd idea is great if you like playing roulette with people's lives.
The herd idea is great if you like playing roulette with (other) people’s lives.
That’s how some people see it. They need to hear more about cases of young fit and healthy people in coffins, or with permanently reduced lung damage to change their minds.
Wasn’t this the much derided ‘herd immunity’ concept?
It's the only game in town until there's a test and/or a vaccine. It's not so much a concept but a description of the process that will become our new reality until there's a test or vaccine.
Yes & to keep numbers manageable for NHS you’d have to keep lockdowns in place for many (10+?) years & still see 10s (100s?) of 1000s of deaths.
Well hopefully it won't be 10 years because there will hopefully be an antibody test/treatments/vaccine quicker than ten years. ...but there might not, in which case we'll have to live with what our immune systems can do.
speedstar
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Kimbers, where did you read we would need 10+ years of lockdowns from?
TWITTER.COM Of course all dependent on how many extra deaths you want to avoid, as well as actual mortality & infection rates -
When I say how many extra deaths government (Cummings?) is willing to live with I mean this
^^^^
sacked eugenicist tit pretends to have inside track
Options:
1. Scoop it all up and put it back in the bottle (likely=lockdown forerver).
2. Lockdown at some level until vaccine and effective treatments arrive, alongside people getting it and having some degree of immunity? Then live with it hoping milder strains prevail.
3. Let it rip
4. Er...?
Option 2. is complicated and messy with plenty of room for argument... Anyone prefer the others?
Wasn’t this the much derided ‘herd immunity’ concept?
Not quite. The initial 'herd immunity' discussion was basically - let's 'take it on the chin' and let it surge through the population in one go, so we can come out of the other side ahead of everyone else (and get Brexit done etc).
That would have produced a massive spike in cases and excess mortality (preventable deaths).
But, in the absence of a vaccine or any other strategy, the majority of us are going catch this thing at some point. There is no means of preventing this, if you locked down completely then the virus would still be there waiting for you on the other side, and a total lockdown is unsustainable economically and socially.
The only lever you have is to try to create a bottleneck* in cases, so that the rate of transmission and hospital caseload is held as close to your ICU capacity as possible. At the same time, you take as many of those at highest risk of hospitalisation and death out of normal society to protect them while some kind of immunity gradually builds up in the general population. You would need 70-80% infection to starting getting proper herd immunity, but even 20-30% may well be useful in suppressing transmission.
*You slow down the flow, not stop it entirely. If you visualise every patient as a drop of water, and our NHS has a pint glass to catch as many as possible, the current strategy aims to turn the caseload into a fast flowing tap rather than just dumping a 10 gallon drum all at once.
Wasn’t this the much derided ‘herd immunity’ concept?
I think that was more like, stuff it, let everyone get it, then enough people will have it to reduce the available hosts such that R0 drops low enough that it ceases to be a pandemic problem. It involved a lot of death very quickly.
Slowing it down to feed people through ICU and save a lot of lives, is not the same.
edit: mh beat me to it with a better post.
2. Lockdown at some level until vaccine and effective treatments arrive, alongside people getting it and having some degree of immunity? Then live with it hoping milder strains prevail.
I'm calling
lockdown until antibody testing arrives
return to normality for anyone who has had it
treatments arrive
return to normality for out of risk groups
vaccine arrives
return to normality
with lockdown lifted after some weeks anyway because people will go nuts and the conomy will splode and stuff, lockdown being reasserted if cases spike again