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Colleague has been off with fever, aches, cough, tight chest and loss of smell.
100% sure was never tested, and got no further than 111 advice to stay at home so I reckon those stats are hospital based only.
Friend of mine who ended up in hosp due to breathing difficulties, tested positive, and is now well on road to recovery says loss of taste and smell is happening to her too.
Hey, weird - realised this morning I've lost my sense of smell, and taste is much dulled! What are the odds!?!:)
*googles it* Uh-oh.... 🙁
I keep thinking back to Italy. All those cases were in a small area as opposed to France/UK/Spain with a much bigger spread.
Also, if Italy’s morbidity numbers are growing linearly instead of exponentially is it not working?
That graph totally misses the point of flattening the curve stuff like is totally useless and possibly harmful
^^^
sacked eugenicist tit pretends to have inside trackOptions:
1. Scoop it all up and put it back in the bottle (likely=lockdown forerver).
2. Lockdown at some level until vaccine and effective treatments arrive, alongside people getting it and having some degree of immunity? Then live with it hoping milder strains prevail.
3. Let it rip
4. Er…?Option 2. is complicated and messy with plenty of room for argument… Anyone prefer the others?
Yup, gotta be 2.
I’m calling
lockdown until antibody testing arrives
return to normality for anyone who has had it
treatments arrive
return to normality for out of risk groups
vaccine arrives
return to normalitywith lockdown lifted after some weeks anyway because people will go nuts and the conomy will splode and stuff, lockdown being reasserted if cases spike again
Yup. That's just a detailed 2 and that's what's gonna happen. (With the minor quibble that a vaccine may never arrive - we don't have a flu vaccine that works for every strain or vaccine for the thousands of different 'cold' bugs). Christ it's even possible there will never be an antibody test.
I think that was more like, stuff it, let everyone get it, then enough people will have it to reduce the available hosts such that R0 drops low enough that it ceases to be a pandemic problem. It involved a lot of death very quickly.
I think that's what people assumed it meant, which seemed ridiculous to me. Government scientists aren't Nazis generally.
Slowing it down to feed people through ICU and save a lot of lives, is not the same.
That's what I took it to mean. Managing the influx of cases, protecting the vulnerable and relying on herd immunity to throttle the disease in the long term i.e. 1-2 years. Instead of locking absolutely everything down and hoping it goes away on its own which was always impossible.
It now appears that locking everything down as much as is possible still results in a slow trickle of cases so perhaps the two approaches have converged.
I think you are likely to be disappointed by the number of people who have had it and can return to normality, mrmonkfinger. One of the media myths. I saw something this morning in one of the French things I read that found only 20% of people being tested thinking they've got it have it.
Have a look at the have you got it thread on here. If all the STWers that think they've got or have had it really have that's a significant proportion of the STW population, but the fact is they probably haven't got/had it, because if they had then extrapolated to the community as a whole they'd be many more seriosu cases than there are given Chinese, Spanish and Italian data. There's one case I reckon is highly probabmy CV and I hope she's doing OK
Lots of people with colds and flu think they've got CV, the vast majority of them haven't.
On the subject of anosmia - my daughter had it with her cough, and my wife had it more or less randomly shortly afterwards, with few other symptoms.
The general flu/cold like stuff is hard to attribute to COVID-19 but the anosmia seems rather unusual for otherwise mild symptoms, and a lot of people are reporting it. Is this the best indicator we currently have?
I think that was more like, stuff it, let everyone get it, then enough people will have it to reduce the available hosts such that R0 drops low enough that it ceases to be a pandemic problem. It involved a lot of death very quickly.
Well that's exactly what we're doing. All people are quibbling about is whether the brakes were put on in time to allow the hospitals to cope. Time will tell about that.
That 20% is only for live infections isn’t it?
and a lot of people are reporting it.
And a lot are still testing negative even though anosmia is integrated into who gets tested (because they haven't had enough tests to test everybody who is ill).
People just aren't objective when it comes to their own health, including me. Mind games.
Edit:
That 20% is only for live infections isn’t it?
Must be, the people wouldn't have been tested otherwise. The only population with a high proportion of testing in France are hospital workers where 40% have tested positive in the east of France with the corresponding number of severe cases and deaths even though you can reasonably expect health workers to do everything within their power to save their working age colleagues.
lockdown until antibody testing arrives
return to normality for anyone who has had it
treatments arrive
return to normality for out of risk groups
vaccine arrives
return to normality
The lockdowns will be determined by trying to model the arrival of surges. That requires extensive community testing, both for 'live' infections and antibody testing. The idea is to keep the UK teetering on the edge of a massive spike in cases, managing workflow through the NHS, locking down when numbers are about to explode again, releasing when the rate drops back. Rinse and repeat until vaccination arrives.
Not easy if you don't have decent surveillance data.
It now appears that locking everything down as much as is possible still results in a slow trickle of cases
We haven't got anywhere near the first surge peak yet. It certainly won't be a slow trickle.
I think that’s what people assumed it meant, which seemed ridiculous to me. Government scientists aren’t Nazis generally.
I think some people on STW thought so. Everyone I know in real life seems to have totally grasped it.
That’s what I took it to mean. Managing the influx of cases, protecting the vulnerable and relying on herd immunity to throttle the disease in the long term i.e. 1-2 years. Instead of locking absolutely everything down and hoping it goes away on its own which was always impossible.
+1
It now appears that locking everything down as much as is possible still results in a slow trickle of cases so perhaps the two approaches have converged.
Yes, with the proviso that I'm pretty sure they always knew a European style lockdown would result in a fair few new cases. I wonder if the current situation in Italy has caught them by surprise though! You'd think three weeks on there would be a significant reduction in cases.
Government scientists aren’t Nazis generally.
Depends if you believe this quote from Cummings is true, a lot of people in government don't like him, but Tim Shipman as reliable as any journo & he wouldn't have published it if he wasn't certain.
herd immunity, protect the economy and if that means some pensioners die, too bad”.
& Austerity has pretty much been doing that for a decade
That Cummings mate is saying the same thing ? Tho of course he may have an axe to grind
.
And a lot are still testing negative even though anosmia is integrated into who gets tested (because they haven’t had enough tests to test everybody who is ill).
People just aren’t objective when it comes to their own health, including me. Mind games
WHO are looking at the link and Whitty was yesterday considering adding it to the list of symptoms but I'm much reassured by the casual dismissal of it by a stranger on the internet - thanks! 🙂
Does anyone believe "lockdown lite" that we seem to be under will be done in 3 weeks? I think they know it will need longer, much longer, but simply don't trust the public to be told it will be 12 weeks and then behave rationally.
@danstw13
Also, if Italy’s morbidity numbers are growing linearly instead of exponentially is it not working?
Growing linearly is a key marker that the growth has reached the peak "speed", so I think the answer is yes, it is working.
And a lot are still testing negative even though anosmia is integrated into who gets tested (because they haven’t had enough tests to test everybody who is ill).
Where did you get that information from? I hope we’re not starting a new one tag. #eduFacts
Does anyone believe “lockdown lite” that we seem to be under will be done in 3 weeks? I think they know it will need longer, much longer, but simply don’t trust the public to be told it will be 12 weeks and then behave rationally.
+1
I suspect when this is over and Whitty/Vallance/Politicans write books about it we're going to find that a massive part of their problem (perhaps the biggest) is managing the public.
The fact the opposition parties have been pretty sensible and not exploited much for political capital is both a credit to them, but also a scary indication of how ****ed we are.
Does anyone believe “lockdown lite” that we seem to be under will be done in 3 weeks?
In the states Trump has suggested lockdown will be lifted in a couple of weeks.
Given that almost everything Trump has publicly stated about the virus and response is diametrically opposed to the reality that is/has transpired, I'd suggest his statements represent a good way to determine what won't happen.
Or, in another word, no.
I'm just pointing out that anosmia isn't regarded as absolute proof because if it were there would be no need for a test and that despite all the symptoms that are considered before someone is tested the actual positive rate for people with symptoms tested is low.
Just relaying the news as I hear it Drac, but don't believe me if you don't want to.
Sometimes you're a bit too quick to insult, far too quick today.
I could do with some clarification- is flattening the curve's main benefit that it spreads the workload for the NHS/reduces chance of overloading the system?
For the individual, the main difference it makes is that they've a higher likelihood of receiving the care they need if infected, or at the far end, receiving the vaccine if still not infected?
If somebody needs, and has access to ICU/ventilation, how likely is it that they'll come home?
Can anyone point me to the numbers of those who've been hospitalised and gone home?
I could do with some clarification- is flattening the curve's main benefit that it spreads the workload for the NHS/reduces chance of overloading the system?
For the individual, the main difference it makes is that they've a higher likelihood of receiving the care they need if infected, or at the far end, receiving the vaccine if still not infected?
If somebody needs, and has access to ICU/ventilation, how likely is it that they'll come home?
Can anyone point me to the numbers of those who've been hospitalised and gone home?
Meanwhile bolsonaro doing his best to wipe out his voter base
I’m just pointing out that anosmia isn’t regarded as absolute proof because if it were there would be no need for a test and that despite all the symptoms that are considered before someone is tested the actual positive rate for people with symptoms tested is low.
Hasn't been suggested anywhere.
If somebody needs, and has access to ICU/ventilation, how likely is it that they’ll come home?
Can anyone point me to the numbers of those who’ve been hospitalised and gone home?
cant find the stats but it varies massively depending on age but I think average was 50%???
even then the people that do leave ITU often have long term health effects, they will need to be put on a regular ward before theyre well enough to go home, their bodies have taken a pummeling if its bad enough they need ITU
I could do with some clarification- is flattening the curve’s main benefit that it spreads the workload for the NHS/reduces chance of overloading the system?
In a nutshell, yes. The NHS will still be overloaded, but the extent should be reduced.
If somebody needs, and has access to ICU/ventilation, how likely is it that they’ll come home?
Depends on age and underlying illness. I did read some suggestion from Lombardy that outcomes for the over 80s (once they were at the point of requiring ventilation) were pretty lousy even if they were ventilated.
Just relaying the news as I hear it Drac, but don’t believe me if you don’t want to.
Sometimes you’re a bit too quick to insult, far too quick today.
No, I’m simply asking where you got it from the news’ really isn’t that reliable. I’m not saying you’re wrong but I’d rather we stuck to proven facts.
Does anyone believe “lockdown lite” that we seem to be under will be done in 3 weeks? I think they know it will need longer, much longer, but simply don’t trust the public to be told it will be 12 weeks and then behave rationally.
I've got 16 weeks in the work sweepstake. All of my major customers at work are planning to 12 weeks as a minimum, the recovery after we reopen everything will take longer plus any further lockdowns as and when they are required. 2020 will be a constant fight of survival and reactionary measures for a lot of companies with no real way of being able to make any investment plans.
We are in for a very bumpy ride.
Yay. The landlady's 75 year old brother has just been diagnosed as having Covid-19.
He has been on the 5th floor of the hospital for 9 days as they are trying to get him to a state where they can operate on his brain tumour. And now he has this.
Oh well, he's in the right place and ahead of the rush. Poor bugger.
Right off to do some deliveries and collections for the vulnerable. Stay safe folks.
Above and beyond, fella. Above and beyond.
Chapeau Drac, thank you.
Thanks Kimbers, martinhutch, slowoldman.
The trouble with that link slowoldman is the implied inconsistencies in defining categories between countries eg France has over 10% of cases marked as critical, the UK 1.5%, and since the UK has been largely only testing in hospital that would imply the percentage of infected that were serious/critical is even lower.
Seems to me that there's not really any value in any of those number, unless you're keeping score.
boris has it
Maybe he shouldn't have been shaking hands with coronavirus patients. He didn't? You mean that was just a stupid lie to make out he was a no nonsense man of the people?
Jesus.
Whatever you think of the man, I wish him all the best for a full recovery.
Maybe he shouldn’t have been shaking hands with coronavirus patients. He didn’t? You mean that was just a stupid lie to make out he was a no nonsense man of the people?
He was many hundreds of miles from the nearest confirmed Corona Patient at the time, it was a Trump like obvious lie that the faithful will swallow just because they want to.
TBH, IMHO there is a pre-lockdown Boris and a post-lockdown Boris. I'm finding it hard to hate him at the moment.
boris has it
Dominic Cummings likely forced him to lick an Italian pensioner.
If he gets it and dies he's a brave martyr , if he gets and recovers it's a message to the public that he can "Get Coronavirus Done"
Await headlines about how he's "defeated the virus" in a week or so.
Of the couple of broadcasts I’ve seen of him of the last week he sounded like he had a bad cold. Imagine everyone he’s spread it to
Isn't his fiancee pregnant and in the high risk category?
Much as I despise the man, I can't bring myself to wish him and his families any harm.
A lot of talk about this crisis making us see our true selves. Up to individuals if you want to reveal yourselves to be spiteful and vindictive.
I can’t bring myself to wish him and his families any harm.
I don't see anyone doing that.
Depends if you believe this quote from Cummings is true, a lot of people in government don’t like him, but Tim Shipman as reliable as any journo & he wouldn’t have published it if he wasn’t certain.
I believe that Cummings would say that - he'd be right at the top of the Nazi state if he'd lived in 1930s Germany. But there is a process going on here, and I don't think everything is being controlled by Cummings sat in his leather chair stroking his cat like a Bond villain.