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I read the Spectator article & then see pictures of an ice rink having to be turned into a morgue and think. "Hnmmm. That's right, we are over-reacting"
The essential problem with his article is that he doesn't know for sure that he is right... & if he is wrong then lots of people have died. By all means, if it transpires that it isn't as bad as it might be then great, relax the measures, but we certainly aren't at that stage yet.
I also notice that his best case scenario is a mortality rate of 0.25-0.5% which he describes as in the normal range for flu, whereas the seasonal flu average is 0.1%. Looks like he is deliberately playing it down.
How are we doing on the Italy curve?
It seems that southern Italy is about to go off.
Rate of new infections is slowing down but still increasing. It remains to be seen whether there will be a second widespread outbreak in southern Italy.
The country to really watch is the USA. If their current trend continues they will top 120,000 case by Monday and have the most cases in the world (although it is out of a much larger population than Italy or Spain)
I wonder how the orange idiot will act then.
[ooops… posted this to the wrong thread before ]
Hmm… self employed who may have already seen their income come to a halt can apply in June for help from the HRMC… so assuming it’ll take “some time” for HRMC to process the applications… that could be, what, six months without income for some? Bloody hell.
June for help from the HRMC
I thought there was also a deferral of the July payment to January(?). An expectation that SE workers are saving enough to meet the July payment can now use this? It's all going to be in the details.
Doesn't help those with no money now.
What if you paid it all this January? July is the latest you can pay the second instalment, not a scheduled payment date.
[ I haven’t, I’ve held back as I was expecting that measure to come ]
.
All the well paid contractors are not part of this HRMC scheme.
Its been a couple of years since I had to deal with SA tax. It was you made two payments a year - one January and one July.
I think they were each 50% of your previous years bill. For example 2018/19 tax year - you make one payment against this in July 19 and the second in January 20. The payments would be based on amount of tax paid in 17/18. By the end of January you also had to pay any outstanding tax on the 18/19 return. So you may find you need to pay more or you may find you get money back as you'd paid more than the amount owed.
a big f you to the newly self employed. That can't stand surely?
I put a tax return in for 18/19, but it's complicated, cause it wasn't that much for the self employed part, just starting up, and it's complicated with wages and redundancy payments. That year majority of my money didn't come from self employed, but I did do a tax return.
But they just get to ignore the whole year of 19/20, I've been self employed?
Feeling like I'm going to get heavily shafted here.
First payment on account due by end of Jan, second due by end of July. You can pay as early as you like.
Feeling like I’m going to get heavily shafted here.
Yes, you are. But they can only go by on the record tax returns, not what you expected to do. Plenty of people recently lost their PAYE jobs are just as screwed.
Which is why a low but universal income for three months for everyone would be better for ensuring people don’t go hungry or seriously without in any way. Paying some 7.5K and others next to none, because they fall through the cracks, stinks to me.
DrJ - are you comparing like with like?
Does your comparison take into account paid holiday, employers pension contributions and other benefits which come with perm jobs?
Taking a contractors day rate and assuming 5 days a week for 52 weeks is not a valid comparison.
The typical base for a comparison is day rate for 46 weeks vs perm salary plus all benefits.
Is the self employed help really only for those that made less than £50k profit? Surely that's irrelevant given the payments are capped anyway. I don't believe the help for those in employment placed any salary restriction???
kelvin
SubscriberYes, you are. But they can only go by on the record tax returns, not what you expected to do.
19/20 is the last 12 months, I'm not expecting to do anything. I've earned it, and can put a tax return on the 1st of April. ie in 6 days time.
That’s right Bob. There’s obvious logic in not helping big self employed “earners” though. The lack of a (wage) limit for PAYE is to try and stop companies laying people off.
First payment on account due by end of Jan, second due by end of July. You can pay as early as you like.
You're right, I said it had been a while.
John Hopkins now showing confirmed cases at 510k; US numbers are rising rapidly and, at current rate of growth, will overtake both Italy and China within 24 hours.
With Russia downplaying their numbers, extremely low numbers in Africa and S America the 510k looks to be a significant understatement.
For the Tim Martin haterz, mr jd wetherspoon has let us know we wont be being paid for beer supplied, and sold by his co pre corona virus.
Think we have January's money in, but not February's and won't be seeing March invoices paid any time soon
He really is an utter and complete twunt, isn't he?
I don’t believe the help for those in employment placed any salary restriction???
It didn’t, but it’ll only pay up to £2500 per month, so £30k ish.
Any chance there's another self employed thread? Prefer this one to be CV info and thoughts tbh...
So, been invited to a medical exam in connection with my injury claim on 4th April.
Much as I'd like to get this thing finished, I'm not convinced a trip to a private clinic is essential travel at the moment? Not really a medical need as such.
For the Tim Martin haterz, mr jd wetherspoon has let us know we wont be being paid for beer supplied, and sold by his co pre corona virus.
Think we have January’s money in, but not February’s and won’t be seeing March invoices paid any time soon
Keep an eye on Brian Moore’s twitter feed. Martin owes him/pit bull brewery (not sure how much of it he owns etc.) £20k which he tweeted about today - all gone down well of course. 😀
So. Are we all going to be joining the round of applause at 8 tonight?
So, been invited to a medical exam in connection with my injury claim on 4th April.
Much as I’d like to get this thing finished, I’m not convinced a trip to a private clinic is essential travel at the moment? Not really a medical need as such.
I'd go, you might not get another appointment for 3-4 months.
In your case I'd take Essential = Not Frivolous.
And the people who would otherwise not have died, had their dermatologist/oncologist/rheumatologist/... not been drafted into stemming the tide of respiratory failure patients?
There is always opportunity cost. My sister was in the ITU for nine weeks with sepsis and ARDS. She survived, but despite daily care, nobody noticed the large mole on her leg. That killed her five years later.
Interesting theory on the Italians and the smoking.
Also the average age of the population and that Italy has one third of all deaths in Europe attributed to antibiotic resistance which is a factor if people develop pneumonia.
It looks like the USA is heading for a complete catastrophe, thanks the the Moron-In-Chief, and his ass-licking bunch of sycophants; of course, everything is going to be hunky-dory by the beginning of April...
Also the average age of the population and that Italy has one third of all deaths in Europe attributed to antibiotic resistance which is a factor if people develop pneumonia.
They would have a similar problem in the US?
So.
We did.
The stats in a couple of years will make for interesting reading. For example, will the lives saved by fewer car accidents / reduced air pollution / increased exercise outweigh those lost to the virus?
Bit emotional that. Fireworks and applause echoing around
Had a tear in my eye when I see the whole street out not helped as I’m wrecked this week. Still I have beer now so all is good.
A numbers question - using the 25th March figures:
Total known cases = 9,529
Daily increase = 1,452
Recovered = 135
Total Deaths = 463
Just over 8,900 still ill? Assuming the recovered is a total figure - Gov.Uk dashboard doesn't indicated it's daily. How is the recovery figure changing over time?
There was a figure quoted last week about the number of unknown infected. I think it was around 4x the known infected figure. Was there ever anything more on that?
We popped out to have a clap, not knowing if we'd hear any others since the houses on our road are a bit spaced out. Was brilliant though - could hear loads of clapping from all over.
Thanks Drac and everyone else at the pointy end of this. Not just for this virus thing, for everything.
One of the estimated figures I’ve seen was simply multiplying the number of deaths by the estimated death rate. It was 1% IFR in the example I recall.
463 deaths, 460k infected.
Not really something to trust until there’s widespread testing.
Bit emotional that. Fireworks and applause echoing around
Clapping cheering and random improvised percussion ringing round the village up here - they're thinking of you and the rest of the NHS Drac.
Not really something to trust until there’s widespread testing.
If the testing is mostly (solely?) in hospital at the moment - does that mean the vast majority of the 8,900 are within the NHS?
They would account what ever % the most serious cases number is?
Jenrick on Question Time - a child amongst adults.
I had no idea about the clapping thing and was a tad concerned when my neighbours came out all at once banging pans. If I’d have known the reason I would’ve joined in instead of barricading the entry points!
If the testing is mostly (solely?) in hospital at the moment – does that mean the vast majority of the 8,900 are within the NHS?
You can trust my numbers even less 😆
What’s a couple of extra zeros
Colleague has been off with fever, aches, cough, tight chest and loss of smell.
100% sure was never tested, and got no further than 111 advice to stay at home so I reckon those stats are hospital based only.
Yes their only hospital based numbers. Many more told to stay at home so no evidence how many of those actually had Covid. Evidence from China suggests only about 20% or so with non-admission tested positive.
Rusty Spanner - re jenrick; totally out of his depth, delivering platitudes, not solutions.
100% sure was never tested, and got no further than 111 advice to stay at home so I reckon those stats are hospital based only.
They’re not. If he rang 111 it’s counted our electric records have been updated with a Corvid 19 diagnosis to aid in recording them.