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Zippy, ad far as I’m aware Italy, Lombardy in particular are more or less only testing those arriving into hospitals.
We’ll be on full lockdown within days I reckon. Too many people don’t get it, walking the dog by myself this morning I saw two roadies drafting each other. Both of whom are not far off the highest risk age groups in terms of direct to them risks.
Local open water swimming group are still meeting several times a week.
At the minute it’s hard to see the end toll not being six figures in the UK. Even more so with the likes of Cummings making the calls.
I’ve retitled the thread as we don’t need conspiracies anymore.
If you can still read this the government made me chan...
And I wouldn’t fancy eating anything from a box of refrigerated or frozen food 24 hours after it was put in some random room, would you?
I'd like to inform you of the existance of tinned, dried, bottled, cartons. And that fresh vegetables keep for days in the English climate.
I'm not barring anything, I'm making suggestions, entirely realisitic suggestions that are far better than going into your local supermarket and contaminating/getting contaminated when with a bit of simple adaption you don't have to.
As for "utter guff". my plan is what's slowly happening in countries taking the virus seriously, but in some countries the population seems determined to ignore or refuse the simple solutions and find unjustifiable justifications for the stupid things they are doing that put themselves and others at risk.
Social distancing isn't working in the UK because it isn't being enforced. People are refusing to respect a call for voluntary measures and the price will be paid in lives.
If I go out without a very good reason I face a 135e fine, go out again and it rises to over 1000e, go out again and I risk ending up in a prison infested with the virus. All good.
re splitting of the countries to hide totals….ironically I spent about 20 minutes looking for the split totals I could only find the over all total
Maybe as inferred above it was an article about the regions. I was looking late last night after a family marathon Wii boxing session. Best way to deal with being cooped up with the kids!
If we do go in to lock down, how will that affect things like MOT. My wife is a nurse and the MOT will run out in early June but with garages shut the car cant have its MOT inspection, any thoughts on this?
Great so everyone stops self isolating when they get symptoms.
Bit of an obtuse pop at me that, Trailrat, I have never said anything about people stopping islolating when they get symptoms in any contribution to this thread, and trying to link the ideaa to what I've posted is a far stretch. Try contributing to this thread/forum for reasons other than taking a personal pop at me, you did it yesterday and generally do.
Edukator. Can you stop with your digs at the UK. It's getting really irritating.
Yer man Dr Michael Ryan chief executive director of the WHO was on Marr saying he thinks the UK are taking the correct steps, just this very morning. I'll take his word before yours.
So please, piss off with your agenda.
Edukator I think you may need to step away for this thread for a bit. Your not stop posting and taking things personal when others post isn’t good for you.
Its not that obtuse.
If that's a quote of yours (I never looked at who wrote it I don't care it's terrible advice) .....but if you feel it's personal clearly you wrote it to get the reaction
Offering folk a bonus based on attendance.
Terrible idea.
End of the Matter.
Tagnut. If your car has a valid not expiring march 2020 it will be extended automatically for 3 months. If it's a first mot you must apply for an exemption
If we do go in to lock down, how will that affect things like MOT. My wife is a nurse and the MOT will run out in early June but with garages shut the car cant have its MOT inspection, any thoughts on this?
I would imagine with the decreased traffic and she is a key worker that they wouldn't be that fussed about her using it as long as it is not obviously dangerous.
Well a countries attitude to social distancing does help - even the experts think so.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51970379
Social distancing is affected by government decisions to ban gatherings or close schools, but it also depends on people being willing to take part. That's why public messaging - and individual attitudes - matter.
Lesson six: It's also down to individual attitudes
It's far too simplistic to say, as some have, that Asians are more likely to comply with government orders. In Hong Kong, public trust in the government is low - and there have been months of anti-government protests. But, in one of the densest cities in the world, many have voluntarily socially distanced themselves - with some even avoiding Lunar New Year gatherings, the equivalent of skipping Christmas events.
Prof Pangestu believes that while Hong Kongers do not trust the government, "they are very proud of Hong Kong, and see the outbreak as a threat to [the territory's] identity".One survey suggests 98% of people in Hong Kong wore facemasks in public due to the outbreak
Meanwhile, Karin Huster, a Seattle-based nurse and emergency field co-ordinator for Doctors Without Borders, spent a month in Hong Kong working on coronavirus training. She noticed many there had a strong "individual sense of responsibility" because they remembered the 2003 Sars outbreak that hit the territory particularly hard.
That's also seen in the prevalent use of masks in part of Asia, which Ms Huster says is seen as a sign of "respect towards others".She noticed that occasionally people would avoid getting into a lift with her because she was not wearing a mask. By contrast, in much of the West, people have specifically been told not to wear masks unless they are ill, and many Asians have experienced harassment while wearing one.
Experts in Asia agree that masks are far less effective than measures like hand washing, and that where supplies are limited, they should be left for healthcare workers. But there are different opinions over whether wearing a mask is worthwhile.Benjamin Cowling, an epidemiology professor at the University of Hong Kong, argues: "Masks are not a magic bullet against coronavirus… but if everybody wears face masks, it probably can help, along with all the other measures [like hand washing and social distancing], to reduce transmission.
"The evidence base is quite thin, but we presume they have some effect, because that's the protection we give to healthcare workers."
Can anyone answer my questions above?
With my opinions, yes....
If we follow Italy, how long before a total lockdown?
If we follow their curve and people aren’t morons ten days. So in my opinion middle of this week, Friday at the latest.
Those of you who are off work how much have you reduced your contact?
As much as possible. The kids only got sent home from school on Friday. No family meetups today. Been round to parents to set up some online stuff. Did it all either sat in their porch or outside. No one crossed a threshold. Everyone who stated >2m apart.
Those of you that are taking all the precautions is all your good work undone as soon as you step inside a supermarket and are exposed to those people who headed to Ikea?
Probably not ‘all‘ bit definitely not ‘none’.
It’s a numbers game. The more people do their bit the better the result, it really is as simple as that.
In my opinion the important numbers are being understated. ‘R’, I think is higher than anyone is willing to admit. Mortality looks like it higher too and can’t be kept under wraps much longer.
I really really hope I am wrong.
If we follow their curve and people aren’t morons ten days
So five days then.
If we follow their curve and people aren’t morons ten days
So five days then.
Nah 2 days
The UK approach is fundamentally different from the rest of the world.
Rest of world is adopting a 'Lock Down' approach to completely starve out the virus and attempt total elimination- The 'Chinese Model'
The UK approach is a controlled epidemic, segregating the High Risk group (>70yrs & those with underlying issues) from rest of society (i.e. Low risk population <70yrs with no underlying health issues) for the duration of the outbreak, whilst allowing the Low risk population to spread the virus at a controlled rate developing herd immunity. (*hopefully immunity is conferred to those that contract the virus...)
Understanding this fundamental difference is central to understanding the govt control mechanisms/ policies.
Once we have demonstrated that we can effectively separate the two populations, govt policies will be used to turn on the taps and allow an increased rate of infection amongst the low risk group (as exceedence of the ICU capacity is unlikely to be exceeded).
The sooner we can squirrel away the elderly/vulnerable and support them to be kept squirrelled away, the sooner the pubs will open..there's an incentive for you.
Adversary? Get over yerself fella...
Personally, I appreciate the input of someone seeing a different approach in a different country.
I'd hope we can all try to let people contribute without always trying to win an argument.
Schools out now. Got enough of that with kids at home.
Stay safe all
If we do go in to lock down, how will that affect things like MOT. My wife is a nurse and the MOT will run out in early June but with garages shut the car cant have its MOT inspection, any thoughts on this?
The police will have bigger things to worry about. The courts are concentrating on the serious stuff. Missing your MOT won't be a problem at the moment.
aaaaaand business as usual this morning. facebook feed full of videos of long queues for opening time at tesco, fights over trolleys etc..... ho hum :-/
The UK approach is a controlled epidemic
The problem is that we simply don’t have the levers to control the epidemic and certainly not to keep it at levels that don’t swamp the NHS.
Italy only closed all non essential businesses last night.
In other news...condescending is up 500% across all forms of social media.
I saw an article somewhere yesterday estimating the real UK infection total to be around 100k.
Does anyone know where that’s from?
fella…
“Bent coppers!”
Does anyone know where that’s from?
probably an extrapolation from Whitty's estimated "between 35,000 and 50,000." six days ago
Rest of world is adopting a ‘Lock Down’ approach to completely starve out the virus and attempt total elimination- The ‘Chinese Model’
The UK approach is a controlled epidemic...
Also a gradual introduction of measure in an effort to give people time to adjust both mentally and practically.
I just hope I can still get to Halfords on Tuesday to pick up my smart trainer, cos I have in-store discount vouchers.
I'm surprised no one has said they have had it? To shock everyone I'm just getting over it, my son has had it already and my wife is getting over it. The symptoms vary massively between people. I had it very mild, wife had a temperature and is still feeling lethargic. I've got over that now. Now I'm on the self isolation. Son had it over a month ago at university so we send him out with surgical gloves on and face mask as not to give it to anyone else. If you get a dry cough and sore throat it's the start please isolate. The loss of lung capacity is scary, but not that bad, it's like having someone sitting on your chest.
BR
JeZ
There’s a thread for on that Jezzep.
https://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/have-any-of-us-actually-caught-the-coronavirus-yet-then/
Ahh, it was here https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/coronavirus-obey-rules-london-sadiq-khan-lockdown-a4391796.html
And not really based on anything beyond the 1% rate.
The Johnson & Cummings approach of last week … which I honestly believe (and fervently hope) the “grown ups” have managed to talk them out of this past week … of letting the spread happen quicker and wider here than any other country … risks cutting us off from other countries as they seek to close down the spread to save lives at home …
https://twitter.com/quatremer/status/1241456825238720514?s=21
If we follow Italy, how long before a total lockdown?
I've just seen on BBC news that they are debating in Parliament tomorrow new powers that could restrict movement. I wasn't fully listening so I need to watch/read it again. My guess by Wednesday.
Those of you who are off work how much have you reduced your contact? My thoughts are that if you give someone a day off in this country they instantly head to Ikea or a shopping centre.
We've been off work for 2 weeks on leave (although our holiday was cancelled) so been at home.
I've been to the shops twice in that time (not the supermarket).
Last Monday went out with friends for dinner (got on the train as it was announced that we shouldn't be socialising anymore).
Last Tuesday we went to visit a friend at home and took the dogs out. We discussed social isolating etc and decided that was pretty much the last mingling we were doing.
Apart from walking the dog we haven't been out since.
Cancelled our 4 day mountain biking & camping (van) trip and stayed at home.
So yes, the wife and I have been taking it seriously.
Those of you that are taking all the precautions is all your good work undone as soon as you step inside a supermarket and are exposed to those people who headed to Ikea?
Maybe, but I will be as careful as I can be, what more can you do?
We're back to work on Tuesday, which will be a very different place to what I left 2 weeks ago 🙁
Once we have demonstrated that we can effectively separate the two populations, govt policies will be used to turn on the taps and allow an increased rate of infection amongst the low risk group (as exceedence of the ICU capacity is unlikely to be exceeded).
No this won’t work.
ICU is already pretty much full.
Deaths and therefore real cases are doubling every 2 days.
Due to the circa 14 day lag from infection, incubation, sickness, deterioration, needing ICU the NHS is effectively doomed to be overwhelmed already, even if nobody gets infected from now on.
Not just a little overwhelmed either, 2^7 = 128x overwhelmed.
ignore this post, found what I was looking for .....
Apologies for the source but this is bloody scary 🙁
The shut down from Friday has been an unmitigated disaster.
We know from Iran and Italy that as soon as they shut the schools those with second homes fled on masse to their holiday homes by the sea. Countries like Spain and Belgium have acted on this information and the Police have been stopping people fleeing in their cars and turned them back. Germany I believe has been even more stringent.
What has the UK done? Absolutely nothing. The nicer seaside towns of the country are now thronged with families from West London (the epicentre of the outbreak) behaving like frat boys and girls on Spring Break. A lot of seniors live in those towns as well. A lot of them are going to die due to the selfishness of individuals and the stupidity of government. It's either the government hadn't learned a single lesson from what's happened in other countries or they're doubling down on their herd immunity approach.
This weekend has probably seen the UK's largest spread of the virus yet. If you're lucky enough to have two homes then great but pick one and stay there. All those who have de camped should be told to stay where they are now. Otherwise you know what will happen, they will get bored in a couple of weeks and move back to London bringing with them a new spike in infections just as London numbers begin to level out.
It's just an action replay of how the virus spread here in the first place when holiday makers brought the virus back with them from Sking holidays in Italy. (And I bet they are many of the same people)
whilst allowing the Low risk population to spread the virus at a controlled rate developing herd immunity
You may have (understandably) inferred that to be the government plan from what was said a week ago… but they have since declared that “the science has changed” (it hasn’t they’ve just accepted that it’s worth taking onboard what has been learnt outside the UK) and that it is absolutely not the stated plan now. Don’t keep repeating it. Stop the spread.
This weekend has probably seen the UK’s largest spread of the virus yet.
A valid and depressing thought. Despite the PM’s strong messaging on Friday not to go out socialising and not to travel, his handling of this over the last three weeks enabled that spread.
We need a clear …
STAY AT HOME
… three word campaign from the PM now.
I cannot tell you how grave the situation is. I expect complete lockdown this week for all except non-essential society members. I predict we will need extra centres for many beds with care facilities, as they have done in Italy and Spain. If these plans are not being put in place it will be a derogation if government. It is obviously clear that a health service that normally struggles will reach saturation.
This is not scaremongering I’m afraid. Mortality in the U.K. is tracking Spain very closely and slightly ahead of Italy for the same point in the epidemic curve. Behavioural change is what has changed the epidemic in China and South Korea. Without it I’m afraid the situation will become even more serious. Expect and obey isolation measures.
I don’t write these things lightly.
Not a lot of behavioural change around here, garden centre rammed when I went past, Tescos early opening for NHS workers back fired according to our mid wife neighbour, open from 9am, tills openned at 10am, loads of people packed together waiting for the tills to open.
Enforced lock down is going to be the only way. People aren't going to take this seriously until they know people who have got it, way, way to late to contain it. Pubs and clubs should have been shut a week ago or more. I think people are very I have no useful contribution to make down in their mentality at the moment.
tagnut69
Member
If we do go in to lock down, how will that affect things like MOT. My wife is a nurse and the MOT will run out in early June but with garages shut the car cant have its MOT inspection, any thoughts on this?
Spain are allowing cars without Mot (called ITV over there).
But there are also other strict rules, no more then one person to a car, and no driving if not to get food or for medical reasons.
Also they are on full lock down for a minimum of 15 more days.
Kelvin, it's more than clear messaging that's required now. The Government should have anticipated the mass exodus. The population should have been told to stay put in the home in which they are registered on the electoral roll or have a valid reason / permission to do otherwise. Accompanied by the threat of fines / prosecution.
I understand the nervousness of the government regarding the curtailing of civil liberties but a move like this would have been a no brainer. It would have only targeted a small percentage of the population, the same small percentage that have been and continue to be the main spreaders of the virus.
It would have sent a great message to the whole of the country. It would have backed up the message that we are 'All in this together'. As it stands, that phrase is nothing but a platitude, much as it came to be seen during the financial crash.
In other news…condescending is up 500% across all forms of social media.
Cool story Bro. Social commentary as situational comedy, barely ever been done before, so just so new and edgy.
Anything useful to add or just here for the one-liners in the intermission?
I've just put the call into work and they're allowing me to claim self isolation until the lockdown hits as I'm no longer comfortable putting myself at risk as I work on a building site in London so indirectly have contact with a million plus people each day.
Add to that I care for my Mum and my Dad has terminal cancer (possibly weeks left) and them catching it will finish them off quicker than there other conditions
This may be useful for recalcitrant teens. (It's a bitly link to Twitter because the tweet has old English version of to copulate in the title and we're a family forum). Needs Samuel L Jackson to read it.
I’ve just put the call into work and they’re allowing me to claim self isolation until the lockdown hits as I’m no longer comfortable putting myself at risk as I work on a building site in London so indirectly have contact with a million plus people each day.
Add to that I care for my Mum and my Dad has terminal cancer (possibly weeks left) and them catching it will finish them off quicker than there other conditions
Sorry to hear about the situation. Your employer sounds at least half reasonable so any bit of help you can get will hopefully make you feel a bit more supported.
People need to pull together on this.
deadlydarcy
MemberTBH if this virus took me soon I’m not that botherd as most of my reason for living is gone
Dude, that doesn’t sound like a good place you’re in right now. Please talk to a friend, loved one or a professional. Don’t be feeling like that on your own.
It’s not a good place, but I'm a fairly glass half full type of chap most of the time
funkmasterp
SubscriberI second darcy. Please speak to someone, the Samaritans can be great. I’ve avoided posting in here, but this warrants a response. I’ll give you my phone number, just pm me.
Don't worry my funky friend I'm not suicidal, just not seeing sense in things?
soobalias
Memberreally sorry to hear that MrOvershoot.
seosamh77
SubscriberMrOvershoot
SubscriberNot at all my friend same here.
Father died 21 years ago @ 61
Mother died 3 years ago @ 72
Wife died 6 months ago @ 52I’ve sort of got used to death, it still hurts like hell but none of us can escape it.
TBH if this virus took me soon I’m not that botherd as most of my reason for living is gone 🙁It’s difficult fella. Just know there are plenty here that know you and will miss your voice. So keep the heid and stay strong. We’ll all get through it together.
Gone into isolation myself since Thursday. Flat mate came in with a cough, so what else can you do. It’s a worrying time for everyone. But people will need you in the weeks and months ahead. Just think of the people around you. I’ve a ridiculous about of family 70+ so if nothing else just think of the difference you’ll be able to make others if you’re around.
Just remember though we’ll get through it.
38 years together through so much adversity isn't something I can just shrug and forget.
But once again this community is helping, even if it’s to tell me to not to be so stupid 😉
I'm taking some comfort that had Carolyn still been alive I would have been in a constant state of dread with her advanced MS (she had aspiration pneumonia twice) and us having carers in so I could go to work.
Fat chance of me in isolation I'm the Engineering Manager at a large flour mill we have to keep production going come what may. Still it’s about as secure a job as you could wish for at the moment just sad I can’t share it with Carolyn anymore 🙁