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No they’ll just get councils to install on-street chargers (already happening) or they’ll use public chargers like you do for petrol.
This. Have any of your ever been to one of Canada's coldest cities? I grew up in Winnipeg, where the average January daytime temperature is -25 degrees C. Almost every car park, and certainly every driveway [sic] in the city, is equipped with power outlets into which cars can plug their block heaters. It is simply a matter of survival.
Isn't it a matter of expanding the same sort of infrastructure?
Motor vehicle traffic in the UK has gone up 36% between 1994 and 2019: Page 3 of this report on 2019 traffic levels - regardless of what's powering those vehicles it's a huge increase and one I don't understand. What's driving all these extra miles? The table is quite interesting. But my guess is that switching to electric won't drive down the number of miles people drive instead of walk, cycle or train/bus. In fact, it may even increase utility motoring as people think'oh, well, it's not as bad as driving a diesel to the shops / school pickup etc'. Someone suggested on here a while back that people increasingly treat cars like motorised wheelchairs for the able-bodied, and that's a pretty ghastly thought.
Anyway - internal combustion engines? I reckon they'll be an exciting day out to a track somewhere to drive or watch something exotic. They'll increasingly make very little sense for the sort of motoring 99.9% of people do - driving to the shops / entertainment / exercise etc. Our household has two cars, and when they conk out (and we tend to buy second hand and then use them until the cost of repair over a six month period is more than scrap value) we'll be looking at an electric replacement or replacements. With two children and only one adult that commutes by car, we sort of need two things: a big car for taking on holiday / to relatives over 250 miles away / hauling boats and bikes and a small car for local trips, or when the family is doing more than one activity in different places. Addressing that need is really, really difficult because it's one of many edge cases that make rental / self drive a complex operational problem to solve, as detailed in posts above mine.
One last thing: look at light goods vehicle miles since 1994: up over 100%. That feels like a problem that could be / should be solved with LGVs and cargo bikes, and that will be A Good Thing.
These are the issues which really need addressing.. It doesn’t matter what fuel is in your car if you don’t need to use the car….
This is the real issue. An EV is green-er, but nowhere near green enough.
Bearing in mind that the sustainable level of CO2 emissions is ~2t per person per year and an electric car still emits about 1t, you're going to have to make some serious lifestyle curtailments elsewhere to meet that overall target.
EVs will have to replace some cars (let's say 10%). The other 90% are going to have to be taxed and legislated off the roads.
2 generations ago my Grandad owned a butchers shop within walking distance from home. My Dad did an Engineering apprenticeship then the first part of his career walking distance from home..
I went to the nearest secondary school – which was a 30 min walk from home.
Is that really the life people want to go back to? I cant think of anythnig worse.
It might be pleasant (but dull) in a nice village in the lake district or rural Kent but you are condemming most of the population to a lifetime of zero social mobility and drudgery.
Is that really the life people want to go back to? I cant think of anythnig worse.
It might be pleasant (but dull) in a nice village in the lake district or rural Kent but you are condemming most of the population to a lifetime of zero social mobility and drudgery.
Absolutely not - but current lifestyles where people drive everywhere need to change somehow.
My only option to get to my office is to drive - public transport would take 2-3 hours (into London then back out again) and cycling is not an option due to the Dartford crossing.
Why not just let existing cars go on as they are greener than creating a new car?
Also battery certainly is not the way forward, certainly the way it is currently being done
Is that really the life people want to go back to? I cant think of anythnig worse.
It might be pleasant (but dull) in a nice village in the lake district or rural Kent but you are condemming most of the population to a lifetime of zero social mobility and drudgery.
The answer is in two parts:
1, we don't really have much choice.
2, I thought everyone knew that the "car = freedom" advertising from the automotive industry was bullshit.
If anything cars have killed off entire areas economically. My village (population approximately 2000) has about 6 full time jobs. It's a ludicrous situation to carry on.
1, we don’t really have much choice.
I know this is the "technology will save us" argument, but (pesky pandemics and wars aside) we have as a species got increasing quality of life and decreasing per capita emissions/polution pretty much continually since the industrial revolution.
But the idea that people will voluntarily (or happily have the government impose on them) a european 1950s lifestyle is about as likely as Miami hosting the winter olympics.
But the idea that people will voluntarily (or happily have the government impose on them) a european 1950s lifestyle is about as likely as Miami hosting the winter olympics.
How many forum members grew up in 2-car households 30 years ago? Probably very very few.
These days it's common for mum, dad, and kids to have a car each (and use it a lot*). Between 1980 and 2020 the number of cars has gone up from 14million to 34million.
*Although annual milage has dropped recently, in the last two decade it's dropped from 9200 to 7400, but nowhere near enough to counter more than doubling the number of cars.
Back to the 80s but with better public transport wouldn't sound so hyperbolic.
Also, some comment about Sochi being like the Russian Miami seems appropriate 🤣.
I get upset by the number of school parents who use the car (ANY car) to drop their kids at the local schools, when I KNOW that they are literally a 12 minute walk up the road, at most.
As has been said - it doens't matter HOW your car is powered if you're using it wrongly...
People need to simply walk/cycle/scoot more.
And I DO accept roads are sometimes rubbish/scary, but I think for the most part, this is just an excuse the parents/kids regurgitate.
The local school my son goes to has nice quite roads around it..well..apart from teh effing CHAOS that happens every day at pickup and dropoff!
I worry about how lazy the world is getting..
DrP
With a little ambition we would be using the 2030 phasing out of most IC vehicles to also phase out urban and suburban on-street parking. 8 years is plenty of time for people who plan on keeping cars to move to housing which affords their lifestyle choices instead of expecting the public to pay for their storage space. Much of that wasted space could be used for planting trees and providing better walking and cycling infrastructure instead.
ICE lorries are here for a while I suspect, and unfortunately they are the most polluting (CO2 NO2 & particulates).
EVs are going to take over in built-up areas I suspect, but as said above, the game changer will be self-driving transport pods, hailed (pre-booked) by app with flexible costing (more costly to travel at peak times or alone).
Diesel utility vehicles will persist in rural areas I think.
Hydrogen is not a realistic fuel for ICE - it's not energy dense enough - though fuel cells/ EV may eventually become widespread.
a european 1950s lifestyle is about as likely as Miami hosting the winter olympics.
Miami will probably host the worlds first Underwater Olympics. Someone will need to figure out what to do with Turkey Point soon though or the competitors will be glowing.
How many forum members grew up in 2-car households 30 years ago? Probably very very few.
Puts up hand, but it was 50 years ago - my Dad ran a car factory, and had two company cars (both changed at 6 months old).
It's probably why I've always had a car, and always will - I was brought up with them, and passed both car & motorbike the same week exactly 39 years ago (taking in a Renault 5GTS and on a Yamaha RD250E).
Each of our 3 sons had their first driving lesson on their 17th birthday.
And being rural living, can't see us not having a car - in fact my Mum is mid-80's and still has her own car, and drives most days.
I get upset by the number of school parents who use the car (ANY car) to drop their kids at the local schools, when I KNOW that they are literally a 12 minute walk up the road, at most.
But for some it could be they're on their way to work, so 12 mins there, 12 mins back and then drive in the same direction - you've just added 1/2 hour to their commute.
How many forum members grew up in 2-car households 30 years ago?
What you have to remember is that way back, families often didn't need two cars because the mum was staying at home, or if she worked it was at a local shop part time. Because a woman's place was in the home wasn't it?
*Although annual milage has dropped recently, in the last two decade it’s dropped from 9200 to 7400, but nowhere near enough to counter more than doubling the number of cars.
Given the stat I quoted above about increased traffic levels, does what you're saying suggest that people are using cars for shorter journeys overall?
But the idea that people will voluntarily (or happily have the government impose on them) a european 1950s lifestyle is about as likely as Miami hosting the winter olympics.
52% of them voted for it.
We can't and shouldn't go back to the 70s or 50s. What we should do is create a better new system that allows us to have interesting fulfilling jobs that don't revolve around needless consumption and don't require us to make car journeys simply to show our faces. This is the challenge we face.
lifetime of zero social mobility
Social mobility in the UK was greater in the 1960s than it is now - and my parents benefited from it.
Of course social mobility might not mean what you think it does.
It’s probably why I’ve always had a car, and always will – I was brought up with them, and passed both car & motorbike the same week exactly 39 years ago (taking in a Renault 5GTS and on a Yamaha RD250E).
Each of our 3 sons had their first driving lesson on their 17th birthday.
And being rural living, can’t see us not having a car
But then that's probably exactly the sort of thing that's going to have to change. There isn't a viable way for it to continue.
May not be applicable to you but people moving to rural areas then commuting to towns both pushes up the prices of housing for the people who need to live there to work, and produces gross ammounts of unessecary and unsustainable pollution.
What we should do is create a better new system that allows us to have interesting fulfilling jobs that don’t revolve around needless consumption and don’t require us to make journeys simply to show our faces
FTFY
My missus has been enjoying not spending 3 hours a day travelling since lockdown, to a job that can be fulfilled just as well from home.
How many forum members grew up in 2-car households 30 years ago?
What you have to remember is that way back, families often didn’t need two cars because the mum was staying at home, or if she worked it was at a local shop part time. Because a woman’s place was in the home wasn’t it?
Really!! 50 years ago my mum had a second car teaching in a school around 10 miles away.
35 years ago my grandfather lived with us with a hulking great P4 Rover, I had a 3000E Capri + MG Midget, my sister had a Renault 4 along with my mums Simca 1100 and my dads Austin Princess.
Oh you didn't live in a rural location did you? The only bus was once a day after everyone was at work that returned well before work finished.
Oh you didn’t live in a rural location did you?
Yep. Just not the same one as you that was apparently filled with rich people.
I said 'often'. Your handful of examples don't really prove anything. Second car ownership was much much lower in the 70s and 80s than it is now.
I’ve been hearing this sort of nonsense for as long as I can remember, yet I see no evidence that life in general is any worse than it was 10, 20 or even 40 years ago.
i hear what you’re saying, but i do feel that the extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and these have been attributed to global warming and it’s going to get worse.
You need to get this together a bit quicker, there are not many manufactures left that think internal combustion engines are worth continuing and fewer showrooms with them in.
What will happen as people replace old with new, petrol with electric or hybrid, is a tipping point where it becomes simpler to drive electric than the old tech, then the replacement will take as long as a petrol or diesel car lasts, because there will be no new one to replace it, the rest will just have to fit as it always does, no one is going to construct a new world to make it all nice and perfect just for cars, it's just a change of fuel.
We can’t and shouldn’t go back to the 70s or 50s.
We should, but just for long enough for people to experience how much it sucked back then for anyone who wasn't a white male with a comfortable income.
We can’t and shouldn’t go back to the 70s or 50s.
It's kind of funny how people see giving up one of their motors as such a retrograde step.
Someone mentioned earlier the growth in car ownership since the mid 90s, it's certainly outstripped population increase and car ownership wasn't a rarity 25 yeas ago...
What has really changed over that period is the level and options available for financing a car, PCP/HP/lease take your pick, nobody drives a new car for more than 3 years (I'm told), yet that car will remain functional and carry on being resold and used for another 15+ years, an entire secondary industry relies on that chain of supply.
Dare I say it a pretty huge finance and service industry relies on consumers continuing to conflate wants and needs...
Being sensible my family actually only needs one basic car with relatively short range for about 90% of the our likely journeys, supplemented by public transport, walking and cycling. What we end up wanting is two, newer cars which we don't have to worry about range on. And it's breaking that cycle of thought that's the trick... there's lots of reinforcement of the idea that 2 newer cars on the drive is a normal/acceptable/necessary thing for a family, but for suburban dwelling types with local and/or WFH arrangements it's not (I know needs are different for those in more rural locations).
Us lot keeping up with the neighbors in suburbia are the problem.
Well, that and having easy access to credit from companies that make a fortune on car leases. If getting hold of a new car is super-easy, why would you not lease one, then you too can have a shiny new Fiesta/Swift/whatever on your driveway instead of a rusty shitbox of a Nova.
As for electrification of the last mile, people are trying. Budbee (Stockholm based) use some quite big electrically assisted pedal vehicles to do deliveries in the city. Load size is huge and makes it a lot easier for them to put parcels the DPD/DHL/whoever would normal use a Sprinter for. Drivers are mostly young, some students, and (at least in Sweden) get a decent wages for the work.
https://budbee.com/en/sustainability/
I knew a chap in their operations department and they were looking at going 100% electric for the last mile; a big investment, but one they thought was really worth it.
Actually, a side note to that last post... This is Sweden we are talking about here. Even in Stockholm, the temperature can get to -20 and the bikes and their drivers are out in it, with snow and ice on the ground. They use roads and cycle tracks and it works. Pleasetell me why DPD, DHL, Parcelfarce cannot do the same thing in the British "winter".
Sorry, not quite following you there.
Do what in a British winter? Use electric vehicles?
No, presumably use any vehicles.
Probably because we have no concept of winter readiness and blame the government when roads grind to a halt and folk are trapped in cars for hours at a time because they are ill equipped to deal with the conditions. We still think grit magically repels snow ffs.
Well, if we lived in a genuine winter country like Sweden we probably would. But we dont.
Sorry, I should have explained the air quotes on "winter", something my girlfriend laughs at all the time.
It's because in places like major cities, it never really gets super-cold or too snowy/icy to take a bike anywhere, let alone a four wheeled one like in the link. Over here, Stockholm is not as bad as some place further north, but still gets a lot of snow and cold temperatures. People _still_ cycle on normal bikes, even though it is -20 and there is rutted frozen ice on the ground.
As Squirrelking said though, we have a certain element of preparedness. Cars and bikes generally have winter tyres on (legal requirement for cars BTW) and people are prepared for it so life goes on.
I don't see replacing last mile with electric as _the_solution, but I see it as being part of a solution. Reducing the number of vans and lorries travelling around and parking on the streets with something smaller and electric could help out a lot with air quality too and, in London at least, might make sense for companies that deliver inside the LEZ.
Well, if we lived in a genuine winter country like Sweden we probably would. But we dont.
people still believe that winter tires are only good for snow......
I think people will come around to electric once the costs become realistic - look at how many folk drive auto these days - 20 years ago that just wasnt a thing unless you really could not drive manual..... "MANUAL GEAR BOX MAKETH MAN" once they realise its actually better itll change.
people still believe that winter tires are only good for snow……
I've no idea what people believe they're good for tbh.
I've used them in the past and currently have Agilis Crossclimates fitted. Coastal Scotland here, full winters not really needed. Actually, only just fitted the Crossclimates, im surprised how chunky but quiet they are. Certainly going to make exiting muddy wet event sites easier than the previous set.
We still dont live in a proper winter country, cool and damp is what we have.
I think people will come around to electric once the costs become realistic
Hopefully
I'm actually quite disappointed at the range to commercial EVs, looking around your lucky to get 200 out of a van. In a previous life in contract logistics the only vehicle that would have worked for is the site van that never left the compound. Even the final mile vehicles were clocking up 200 miles on a regular basis which is a bit squeaky bum time getting back to the depots. And the vehicles that picked up from us would easily do 300 with the longest daily run being Banbury to Carlisle and back.
At least with city work where the ranges are more suitable itll cut out a lot of point of use pollution.
Probably because we have no concept of winter readiness and blame the government when roads grind to a halt
Every country is prepared for their normal winter and it's the occasional exception that cocks everything up two or three times a year. We're no different - mainly because the extra cost of dealing with that thing that happens a couple of times a year isn't worth it.
People need to not go out in it though, that's the stupid part.
I think people will come around to electric once the costs become realistic
I agree - most people just don't care that much, they just want cars to get from A to B (look at the number of bland small NA petrol cars on the road), and these people when they get into an EV will go 'oh this is nice and smooth and quiet', get one, then just carry on as normal.
Even the final mile vehicles were clocking up 200 miles on a regular basis which is a bit squeaky bum time getting back to the depots. And the vehicles that picked up from us would easily do 300 with the longest daily run being Banbury to Carlisle and back.
Why couldn't you stop and recharge?
Even in Stockholm, the temperature can get to -20 and the bikes and their drivers are out in it, with snow and ice on the ground. They use roads and cycle tracks and it works. Pleasetell me why DPD, DHL, Parcelfarce cannot do the same thing in the British “winter”.
Having spend a couple of winters in Helsinki, which may be a little drier and less volume of snow, and for the benefit of whoever's not been to these places:
The roads and cyclepaths are gritted with small sharp hard gravel regularly which packs into the snow and gives plenty of traction - most cyclists weren't on ice spikes and they were fine. It also didn't thaw/freeze so there wasn't much actual ice, and people just avoided whatever had seeped out of overflows and that. Snow tyres were mandatory and back then (15 years ago) everyone was on studs, which did wreck the roads but they just repaired them. Often the snow remained dry so it got crushed up by tyres and blew away with the draught from passing cars on faster roads - on slower roads it did get icy but it had the gravel packed into it so generally wasn't that bad.
What makes things hard in the UK is a load of wet slippery snow all at once. And even if your delivery van has chains or winter tyres there are too many people who don't and head out anyway and get stuck. Loads of people here simply have no idea that snow is slippery and affects your ability to drive. So they get stuck and it blocks roads.
-20C snow is much gripper than -1C snow as I'm sure Willard knows.
Yup, a lot of the more rural driving over here is on "winter roads" which are basically packed snow and ice, maybe with a bit of grit on. It works well and as long as you think about your driving, is just like driving on a normal road.
Salt is not used for the most part. Because it doesn't really work in extreme cold and can make things worse.
Why couldn’t you stop and recharge?
Are you just out for a troll today. It's not a holiday it's a commercial operation. Downtime is a swear word.
As above, there isnt (wasnt) time, too much economic (competitor) pressure to deliver x number in y hours.
And, for clarity, this was 11 years ago. So nowhere to really charge anyway.
Even today youd need to plan in a 100% guaranteed free fast charging point midway through the day for the final mile drivers as opposed to just knowing you've a full day of fuel. And it's not like online shopping drivers who have relatively compact patches, we were handling warranty returns with large delivery patches so using the same charging point each day wouldn't be an option. The trunk drivers could do this if the ranges improved enough, but larger Van's have even worse range.
For it to really work as things stand, you need enough high speed chargers for you and your competitors to use at lunchtime in random locations with guaranteed availability. And LWB Van's with 300+ mile real world range for the trunks.
it’s a commercial operation. Downtime is a swear word.
Of all the problems to surmount I feel like this should be pretty far down the list.
This is why legislation and government action is crucial - cos then everyone has to do it and no-one loses business.
For it to really work as things stand, you need enough high speed chargers for you and your competitors to use at lunchtime in random locations with guaranteed availability.
It's coming.
I do wonder whether I'll live to see the day of 'road restoration societies' restoring old roads for petrol cars that aren't allowed on the national electric vehicle network. Just like the canal restoration groups and steam railway preservation societies..............