Anyone else absorbed in this?
Currently switching between CNN, BBC2 & Radio 4.
Far too early for anything meaningful but I fear for the Democrats.
Exit polls on democracy, abortion, crime, economy are inconsistent and confusing.
At state level, inconsistencies between voting trends for governor/ senator/representatives.
I have no doubt that, if Fetterman in Philly didn't have a stroke, he would have pissed all over Oz; now? Who knows but a celeb/tv doc in the senate? He could join rand paul,the dentist.
As for trump, the orange shit-gibbon, he said...if republicans do well, thank me; if they don't, it's nothing to do with me.
Vomit inducing.
Been watching a bit.... but looking all to depressing frankly.
Fetterman has beaten Oz in PA! This is great news.
It's pretty standard for the pendulum to swing against the president in the midterms - add to the mix current inflation (the causes being a mix of global factors, and both Trump and Biden administration spending bills, but Biden has been left chairless when the music stopped) But I'm enjoying seeing the so called "Big Red Wave" being downgraded to more of a ripple.
Rand Paul is an ophthalmologist, no?
This is all potentially terrifying; as has been said elsewhere, how can American democracy continue to function when the Republicans have given up on the notion of democracy?
Still, Trump has had a pop at De Santis…
America has never been a real democracy and its got further and further away from a true democracy for a long time
Trump claims to have diet on everyone who might stand against him. If only they had some on him
Looks like the Democrats will lose the house, as predicted, but there is a sliver of a chance that they'll hold on to the Senate
but looking all to depressing frankly.
This ^ goes nicely with the shower of shite we have running this <insert non upsetting-to-you description of State of your choice >
It looks to me like the Democrats are not doing as badly as feared. The President's party usually loses congressional seats in mid-term elections, but the predicted red wave hasn't happened. I think Trump and the MAGA nutters have actually hurt Republican hopes - they turned out base voters, but turned off moderates in the swing toss-up elections by putting up lunatic candidates.
The Senate is the key thing. Having the White House and Senate will let Democrats block any crazy stuff that comes out of the House.
You can follow the Senate races here:
https://www.270towin.com/2022-election-results-live/senate/
Trump claims to have diet on everyone who might stand against him
Trump is iDave?
Looks much closer than what was being claimed. The mess our own government is in just now I’ve little interest though in America.
There's going to be Civil War, dirty bombs, public disorder, militia on the streets, etc.
I read it on here, or in the tea leaves or maybe it was another equally reliable source?
I think for the first time the Republicans are paying a significant electoral price for their extremism. GOP were aiming for 60 seats in the House, it looks like they'll get 25, and looks increasingly like Dems will keep the Senate
Interesting that the Trump backed Election "deniers" are doing worse than the Republicans who've distanced themselves from him
There’s going to be Civil War, dirty bombs, public disorder, militia on the streets, etc.
Thing is, it's easy for people to go onto Facebook, Twitter, etc. and post pictures of posturing with guns and other nonsense, but most of them are not really prepared for a real battle with armed police or National Guard units. The January 6 insurrection was a bunch of clowns who had a fantasy about overthrowing the government, but that failed and many of them are facing serious jail time. They may have sympathizers, but very few people are actually willing to face jail time or to get into a gun battle with professional soldiers. They'll moan and complain, but the threatened civil war won't happen unless there is a revolt among military personnel and they join anti-government militias.
The mess our own government is in just now I’ve little interest though in America
Agree!
Yeah definitely looks like GOP will have some soul searching to do (the ones that have souls😳)
It's Musk I feel sorry for
£44bn and he didn't even get to swing an election, the way he wanted
Rand Paul is an ophthalmologist, no?
You're thinking of Paul Gosar, a holocaust denier, white supremacist and dentist
and post pictures of posturing with guns and other nonsense
Considering the state of some of those gravy seals, posture is actually quite difficult
Interesting that the Trump backed Election “deniers” are doing worse than the Republicans who’ve distanced themselves from him
Is there anywhere doing a good “tracker” of how the MAGA Reps are doing in isolation to the rest of the Reps?
From what I've hears so far, sounds like I've been hearing the same thing as nickc, which is more positive than I'd been expecting.
I'd like to see De Santis standing up to Trump and calling him out from now. He could be the unifier that GOP needs (but not America or the rest of the world)
The mess our own government is in just now I’ve little interest though in America
The USA is a massive influencer of world politics, the exporting of american political imperialism over the past 40 years has been nothing short of evil IMO. The complete sellout of political power to oligarchs in the US has spread widely and has been copied rather too closely by british politics.
The fact that the republicans even have a chance too win 1 house should be a warning to labour, that the current collapse of the tories must be used to actually affect and improve lives for the majority (especially the disenfranchised) and not just conduct business as usual ignoring the public to comply with the wishes of the extremely wealthy and assuming that any lead will be lasting.
The democratic agenda has been uninspiring and for that they are in a precarious state, they are just the flip side of a coin in the oligarchs pockets to the republicans, and people can see that and lose hope. Labour must not fall into the same trap.
I could see the republicans ditching trump now, the worry for them is that he's so petty & spiteful that he will be a thorn in their side
Looks like Lauren Boebert may, just may, lose her seat in Colorado, it's still incredibly tough to call but sweet lord that'd be good to see, she really is one of the absolute worst.
I could see the republicans ditching trump now, the worry for them is that he’s so petty & spiteful that he will be a thorn in their side
Depends how this all plays out maybe, the Reps should have done a lot better, and if the MAGA Rep fair worse than average they may asses to cut their losses and assune a 2 term Democrat admin whilst sorting their own shit out?
"Maybe" and "may" doing an awful lot of uneducated optimistic guesswork heavy lifting there.
The USA is a massive influencer of world politics
Especially the brand of "free marketeers" than are currently masquerading as the Conservatives (Truss, Steve Barker, Kwasi Kwarteng, JRM, Dan Hannan et al) hence the idiotic budget once they finally got their hands on the levers of power. They look across the Atlantic and listen to the same economists and Ayn Rand worshippers, and believe that UK=USA, I mean, if you never leave London, it's easy to imagine that you live in the same environment as New York or Los Angeles, I'd imagine that all of them can tell you who the Senate candidates for Arizona or Georgia are, but have never once in their lives followed the Greek or Romanian elections.
"But I’m enjoying seeing the so called “Big Red Wave” being downgraded to more of a ripple"
More like a plop to be fair...
And tj's right, a country where a third of the population is denied the right to vote is not a democracy.
^^ Genuine question here, how are they denied the right to vote?
(Nice to see the Republicans aren't doing as well as predicted. A small sliver of positivity. Election "rigging" going to be blamed at a guess...)
I could see the republicans ditching trump now, the worry for them is that he’s so petty & spiteful that he will be a thorn in their side
Problem is that the Republican base love him because he airs all the grievances that they feel. They basically feel that the world is heading in the wrong direction and that they've been denied the respect they deserve. Total fantasy, but that's what animates them. In order to run as a Republican candidate, you have to win a primary election in which only Republicans vote, which means appealing to the right-wing nutjobs. Moderates have mostly been driven out of the Republican party, so they keep losing seats that should be easy wins for them because their nutty candidates alienate normal people. Those losses only anger the Trump nutters even more, so the Republican Party is in a death spiral caused by Trump, but they can't pull out of it because he owns the base voters. People like J.D. Vance, Ted Cruz, etc. know it's all bullshit but they have so little self-respect that they willingly sign on so they can keep their seats at the table.
Unlike in th UK, where you continually get contacted to make sure you are on the electoral register and unlike many developing countries where there are drives to get the population registered, the US makes getting on, and staying on the electoral register as difficult as possible for certain demographics.
And even if you can get on the register, many republican controlled States make it as difficult to vote in poorer districts as possible by closing or understaffing polling stations. For example; in the last election, black Georgians spent on average 10 times as long queuing to vote as their white counterparts.
Many States don't allow people who have been to prison the right to vote, encouraging law enforcement to double down on voter suppression.
The stripping of names from the register that aren't typically European on eronious grounds, often because names have been miss spelt (deliberately or otherwise) when being processed.
Then there's the extrodinary levels of gerrymandering, where black neighbourhoods are specifically targeted for absurd redistricting (look at some of the maps of redistricted areas for a laugh!) in order to render minority votes meaningless.
Voting in the US is definitely more a privilege than a right.
^^ Genuine question here, how are they denied the right to vote?
I'm skeptical that a third of U.S. voters are denied a right to vote, but vote suppression is pretty bad in many states. A common thing is to deny convicted felons the right to vote until they have fully discharged their sentence and any fines they owe. If they can't pay their fines, they don't get to vote. However, I don't know how big of a difference that would really make, even though I think felons should have the right to vote, even if they're still in prison.
Other things are just bureaucratic. Limiting the types of I.D. that can be used and making it a requirement to register in person, not by mail. Poorer people struggle to get time off work to register, plus the required I.D.s are expensive, so that's a sneaky way of discouraging poor people. Another trick is to limit where registration offices are located so that people in Democratic leaning areas have to travel further to register (which is a huge hassle if you don't have a car and have to go across town by public transport.)
There's always a little bit of stuff like this, sometimes there are honest disagreements about what level of I.D. should be required, for example, but the Republicans have pretty much made vote suppression one of their core strategies. When a party decides that it can only win by suppressing people's votes, they have rejected democracy and should be voted against on principle, regardless of whether any of their candidates or policies might have appeal. There simply aren't any good Republicans any more.
A quick peruse of Fox News and the cries of voter fraud, stolen elections etc have yet to start..
Perhaps because the Republicans were surfing on a wave of optimism they forgot to pre-plan the scam the way Trump and Bannon hadd. Cant see stop the steal getting much traction this time, (though I could be wrong!).
"I’m skeptical that a third of U.S. voters are denied a right to vote,"
Well I was exaagerating, perhaps I should have said ' don't enjoy the right to vote.'
Cheers for the thoughts on voter suppression guys.👍
Heard of one District where a bunch of the voting machines weren't working which will mean counting by hand...
Here we go - 9 hours ago:
So IF the dems keep the senate, republicans get the house, Biden's first term could be viewed as one of the more successful then?
Good to see Boebert still losing this morning. I'm in FL, with only Newsmax and Real America First on the TV. Both are pushing DeSantis for 2024 now.
Even those that do vote have some strange views. I've worked for US companies for 25+ years and have met or worked directly with hundreds and hundreds of them.
I can group them as follows:
NY, Boston, Washington - gobby but okay with varying political views
California - mostly okay, mainly Democrats but some very vocal Republicans
Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois - Republican farmers
Texas - Very right wing Republican nutjobs but very polite
Colorado - same as CA within the university towns and ski resorts
Florida - mostly retired people who don't care
When it was Trump v Hillary Clinton many people would not vote for her because she was a woman. Obama lost votes for not being white.
The scary thing is that these people are all educated, they work in engineering, banking, insurance sectors. If they have the luxury of an education how do the poor, under-priviledged, disenfranchised people think?
Split in the middle.
Disunited State of Murica.
Where's a tiny violin GIF when you need one?
https://twitter.com/AdamParkhomenko/status/1590216896326295552
Atlantic writer taking a positive tone on things (for the Dems)
https://twitter.com/TimAlberta/status/1590173139576635393?t=0TSeyItfZ5_BelFR21vQ6w&s=19
Interesting that the Trump backed Election “deniers” are doing worse than the Republicans who’ve distanced themselves from him
As soon as it looks like Trump is a vote loser rather than a winner he'll be dumped by his party, the same as Johnson
Is there anywhere doing a good “tracker”
Sorry @piemonster, missed this, I follow @ddale8 on twitter, he's a fact checker for CNN.
As soon as it looks like Trump is a vote loser rather than a winner he’ll be dumped by his party, the same as Johnson
While he was President, the Republicans lost the house and senate, then he lost the White House. Those were historically terrible results that came back to Trump alienating moderate voters. He's always been a vote loser but his base voters don't care. Republican establishment leaders know he's a loser but the Republican party is a Trump cult now and the base voters won't abandon him.
If they have the luxury of an education how do the poor, under-priviledged, disenfranchised people think?
American Dream, isn’t it? If you just work harder…
I remember hearing an interview a while back with an out of work blue collar worker who was going to vote for Marco Rubio because he embodied the American dream.
If you type US elections into Google it gives you a nice dashboard too.
Those were historically terrible results that came back to Trump alienating moderate voters. He’s always been a vote loser but his base voters don’t care
We have been through this before, there were **** all "moderate" republicans that flipped to democrats, Biden won because the normally disenfranchised came out to oppose Trump (who actually got more votes in 2020 than in 2016). It fits the centrist myth to keep repeating that elections are won in the middle ground, but it just doesn't match reality. What it does do is help to disenfranchise millions of voters who are repeatedly ignored by the policy agenda of all the major parties.
Could get really interesting if trump declares and potentially devastating for the republicans. The grass roots of the party have been inundated with election deniers and trumpists. With desantis romping in like this he looks like a sure thing for presidential candidate but it could get really ugly if it comes to desantis Vs trump for the nomination.
With desantis romping in like this he looks like a sure thing for presidential candidate but it could get really ugly if it comes to desantis Vs trump for the nomination.
I'll be stocking up on popcorn to enjoy it properly
Could get really interesting if trump declares and potentially devastating for the republicans. The grass roots of the party have been inundated with election deniers and trumpists. With desantis romping in like this he looks like a sure thing for presidential candidate but it could get really ugly if it comes to desantis Vs trump for the nomination.
Not so sure, if Desantis is seen as the 'credible' candidate, and Trum just has his cult then even if the party is split 50/50 between then I can't see one damaging the other prospects. If it's Trump, then he's won before after a divisive campaign because his supporters don't care and the 'middle ground' of the Republicans hate Clinton (and Biden). If Desantis win's the nomination, then Trumps supporters are at best going to not turn out.
Don't let the "anyone but Trump" rationale obscure the fact that a lot of voters see Biden as useless.
Unless of course Trump runs as an independent, doesn’t have to take many votes to cause chaos.
And not forgetting that Trump has no love for the Republican Party except as a vehicle for his own ambitions.
Biden won because the normally disenfranchised came out to oppose Trump (who actually got more votes in 2020 than in 2016).
Yes but also 2016 had a low turnout as people refused to vote for their normal party (dems disliking Hilary for everything from alleged emails to her gender; and reps disliking trump because well, Trump) but they could still bring themselves to switch parties.
Unless of course Trump runs as an independent, doesn’t have to take many votes to cause chaos.
Hopefully he will start a new party and then sue the republicans for the right to the name since they are RINOs.
Yes but also 2016 had a low turnout as people refused to vote for their normal party
2016 did not have a particular low turnout, 2020 however was the outlier with a high turnout.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_United_States_presidential_elections
I'm still smirking at seeing Boebert lose in her home town. She's an insufferably obnoxious article, that one.
Sad 😂
https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/1590341634709131265?t=jBk_VgGeqkk2Y3w9zcgjkQ&s=19
This would also be so funny if she loses out, conspiracy theorists will go into meltdown https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1590370366228422656?t=-kJl1cd8aHLBEK4usagWVw&s=19
Don't think boebert has lost - yet - unless I've missed it.
Last I read she was 4k votes behind with, by my reckoning, about 23k votes still to be counted.
I really thought ron johnson was going to lose in Wisconsin; no doubt he'll continue blathering about stolen elections.
Great news that voters in Kentucky voted against the anti abortion amendnent.
Good to see that many trump endorsed candidates were rejected; the orange one has, predictably, been blustering again.
My prediction FWIW - he won't stand in 2024.
Great news that voters in Kentucky voted against the anti abortion amendment
I wonder if the republicans put it as a separate amendment, so they would not lose votes if it became a central issue in the party elections.
Hopefully he will start a new party
Trump United Republican NationalIndependance Party?
I see taylor greene has been re-elected; if republicans take the house of representatives she and her fellow travellers will exercise disproportionate influence as mccarthy, assuming he becomes leader, won't be able to ignore them.
If the dems lose the senate then the lunatics will definitely have taken over the asylum.
Pray for the USA.
"My prediction FWIW – he won’t stand in 2024"
The biggest winner in all this is DeSantis, flipping a purple state to deep red.
It's strange that the house is now full of MAGA nut-jobs but Trump won't be on the ticket for 2024. I noticed that some Trump supported candidates who won didn't thank or even mention him during their acceptance speeches.
I expect that many of those who Trump vouched for will be forgetting about him now that they are in office, and will line up being DeSantis, realising he has a much better chance in 2 years time.
Did DeSantis royally slag off Trump in his victory speech, or did I misunderstand the context?
Still a very tight race especially the Senate.
Counting is slowing down by the look of things.
Well, another Biden administration should put their economy in their place.
Did DeSantis royally slag off Trump in his victory speech, or did I misunderstand the context?
Cant be arsed to look through his shite in detail but its highly likely. By all accounts he wants a run at president and the question is whether 2024 or 2028. If he can undermine trump enough so he doesnt have to go head to head in 2024 then all the better for him.
Desantis is bad news, he's basically trump except he can complete a sentence.
Boebert, clawing back the votes
95% counted but just 62 votes behind!
Desantis & Trump tearing chunks out of each other would be exactly what the Democrats want to see
It'll go to a recount either way. Just the fact that she and Walker can run this close should be incredibly worrying, except the world's already mad.
My prediction FWIW – he won’t stand in 2024.
I agree. I think Trump was looking for this "red wave" as an indication that people wanted him back. I think the last thing he would want to do is stand for re-election and risk not winning.
100% agree with this. Zero chance he won't run.
https://twitter.com/WalshFreedom/status/1590531502273892352
Good thread on Fox News having a bad night.
https://twitter.com/DecodingFoxNews/status/1590668594379395074
Trump endorsed candidates:
Governors: 8 of 18
Won 8
Lost 8
Still to call 3
Senators: 17 of 23
Won 17
Lost 2
Still to call 4
House Representatives: 127 of 142
Won 127
Lost 9
Still to call 6
Missing the point a bit there chewy, in the midterms, youd expect those candidates to do much better, some of those races should have been easy wins for republicans , but his picks were so polarising that many in the party are very angry that hes gifted the dems some wins even they werent expecting
Republicans now have to decide if they will back Trump for president or not, Trump himself & plenty of his supporters are petty & viscous, theyll have to deicde if they want to risk backing a loser like Trump over a winner like DeSantis, knowing that the blowback on them & their families could be pretty horrific if Trump feels he's been betrayed
Missing the point a bit there chewy, in the midterms, youd expect those candidates to do much better, some of those races should have been easy wins for republicans , but his picks were so polarising that many in the party are very angry that hes gifted the dems some wins even they werent expecting
I doubt they can predict a Marmite case to be honest.
Republicans now have to decide if they will back Trump for president or not, Trump himself & plenty of his supporters are petty & viscous, theyll have to deicde if they want to risk backing a loser like Trump over a winner like DeSantis, knowing that the blowback on them & their families could be pretty horrific if Trump feels he’s been betrayed
DeSantis might have a "clean" sweep of Florida but whether he can replicate his success all over is difficult to say. Not sure they can predict that.
Repubicans will have a headache trying to choose between Trump and DeSantis.
"DeSantis might have a “clean” sweep of Florida but whether he can replicate his success all over is difficult to say. Not sure they can predict that."
Fair point, as much as DeSantis looks like a president in waiting and would certainly appeal to those republicans put off by Trump, there's no certainty that he would connect with the rust belt voters that Trump courted so successfully.
Bot like Johnson and the red wall, there's no evidence that any of the string of conservative leaders that follow him can connect in the same way.
If I were a betting person I'd still put my money on DeSantis winning the presidency in two years time though, not least because Biden will be embalmed by then and there's no immediate replacements in the frame for the Democrats.
It might be worthwhile letting Trump have another go, after all he's only allowed 2 terms so after that he would be history anyway.
It might be worthwhile letting Trump have another go, after all he’s only allowed 2 terms so after that he would be history anyway.
Yes, I agree to let Trump have another go to see what he can/cannot do.
If I were a betting person I’d still put my money on DeSantis winning the presidency in two years time though, not least because Biden will be embalmed by then and there’s no immediate replacements in the frame for the Democrats.
Not sure why DeSantis are in a hurry considering he is still young. He should wait. Why stick his neck in while the economy is tumbling down? Trump will be much better in dealing with the economy crisis.
It might be worthwhile letting Trump have another go, after all he’s only allowed 2 terms so after that he would be history anyway.
Are you nuts?!?! You want Trump to be President again?? Haha. And if by some nightmare Trump did get in, I wouldn't put it past him/GOP trying to remove the 2-terms limit or install a puppet like Putin did
Trump lost last time. Since that election he has tried to burn the US Democratic system to the ground. You think the independents will vote him in next time????
Yes, I agree to let Trump have another go to see what he can/cannot do.
The only difference between you and me chewkw is that I'm joking.
Boebert, clawing back the votes
95% counted but just 62 votes behind!
I liked the bit on The Newsagents today saying the Reps were looking forwards to a majority of 20 or 30 but look set to only get 5 or 6.... and they're hoping its 5. I think even many of the zanier republicans would happily see the back of Boebert, especially so if their majority is very slim.
The only difference between you and me chewkw is that I’m joking.
I thought you have become a Trump supporter. LOL!
Gubernatorial.
There’s a word I hope I never hear in any sphere of British politics.