@Kryton57 kudos to your lad, that's an awesome thing to do. You are right to be proud!
Very proud of Jnr today
I'm not surprised what a caring thing to do, double helping of pudding.
Mueller investigation went as far is it could and results were
"It also found that Russia had interfered in the election "in sweeping and systematic fashion", and outlined 10 times when Mr Trump possibly impeded the investigation."
This is really interesting, if you follow the thread there is much more detail about the heavy criticism of the war, impact of sanctions and acknowledgement of military failures. This on a pre-recorded (so presumably approved) political talk show.
https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177?s=20&t=v-nCEJ8cZrT3Wrc3Mupj7g
It would help if that fit faced fat arsed evil POS could actually let some in.
I think there a number of factors they aren't talking about in play
They still haven't sorted out the Afghans and more need to come here from there
There are a lot of Hong Kong immigrants coming in quietly, this may accelerate at any time
They probably are getting some scarey briefings from MI5/6
The civil service culture doesn't rise to the occasion like the armed forces can, this was seen in Afghanistan. I can imagine the panic trying to get sign off for spend on the visa centres.
These aren't excuses, it's crap, everyone knows it's crap.
That's interesting. Maybe Putin is looking for someone to blame whilst climbing down.
On a more serious point, I personally do want to know about the technical aspects of the tools of war being used. I don’t get kicks from seeing them used but it’s another aspect of the invasion that I know I want to know about rather than be clueless.
I'm with nickc on this. Knowledge is good and the more we know about these things the better. If you hear on the news that, say, thermobaric weapons have been used it helps to know what one is and what it does to appreciate the significance of that news story, or if you hear that Poland want to give them 23 Mig29s you need to know tbe size of the current Ukrainian airforce to appreciate if 23 is a big number or not and what that might mean.
.
.
Also, I have a spare room and was wondering if I should offer it out. Like tpbiker I'm not that keen on sharing with a complete random, but I thought maybe some sort of 'meet a refugee/speed dating' style thing could be set up, people who have rooms, people who need rooms, meet up, even virtually, see who you get on with and match people together? No idea how the practicalities of that would work.
I’m not surprised what a caring thing to do, double helping of pudding.
Definitely
@kryton57 that's just lifted me out of a (generally tired and grumpy) shite mood and given me a smile. Good for them.
More of this (as a nation) please.
We had a Zimbabwean refugee live with us for a while. It was good experience for us and the kids, if you can - do it.
We don't have a spare room anymore so can't offer.
Re. the refugee in your home thing. There was an interview on radio 4 PM on Wednesday with a ex Syrian refugee and a host, sounded like an incredibly positive opportunity for both parties TBH. Then on Friday a woman from a charity that sorted it all out gave a little insight into how it's organised, it's not entirely a matter of registering your interest then a big family rocks up the following day.
It'll be on BBC Sounds. From about 5.45 PM both days.
Ukraine offering large rewards to Russian pilots that defect with their planes/ helis. Not sure how likely it is to happen but their hybrid warfare campaign against Russia is astoundingly good.
Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) Tweeted:
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense just published a promotional video offering each Russian pilot a reward if they defect to #Ukraine with their aircraft.
USD 1 million per aircraft and USD 500,000 per helicopter.
https://t.co/a0oCin9MfR https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1502001711589830657?s=20&t=xdNSyZFrFxSmb0cUGAaQsA
Instead of offering spare rooms, nlaws and aid packages, what about stopping buying fossil fuels from Russia? Maybe if Putin saw that we were individually and collectively prepared to stand by our principles and not just make token gestures, he might take European opinion seriously.
Then on Friday a woman from a charity that sorted it all out gave a little insight into how it’s organised, it’s not entirely a matter of registering your interest then a big family rocks up the following day.
One step ahead of me then🤣 I'll have a listen and hear what she has to say
Maybe if Putin saw that we were individually and collectively prepared to stand by our principles and not just make token gestures, he might take European opinion seriously.
Can't disagree, but OPEC have refused to increase output - their quite happy with short supply
Have to admit, i stopped posting and reading this thread the more this invasion continues, it just defies belief, and it's honestly sad to know that there's nothing that could be done without turning this in to WW3, Poland's offer shows that, the thought of a NATO country providing this level of defence would just turn it up a notch, same with Biden sat there saying the US just can't do a thing without it going full scale, all because there's an absolute nutter being followed without thought by almost an entire country.
FSB chiefs being put under house arrest, openly anti war talk on Russian tv, 3 high ranking military leaders killed in ukraine as they are having to lead from the front to encourage a demoralised army... am I the only one thinking things are starting to unravel around Putin? Will it be fast enough though?
Can’t disagree, but OPEC have refused to increase output – their quite happy with short supply
Given that oil has been at a very low price for ages I’m not surprised.
I have a spare room and would have no problem. I’ve two teenage daughters so I would only accept female refugees or mother and child but I reckon that would be fair enough. My Dutch mother in law did the same 2 years ago with a Syrian refugee for a year and she is a right particular sort so I think if she can manage so can we.
^^ I think the UAE has agree to increase output?
America is even wooing Venezuela... dealing with the devil there I suppose but still not close to having to deal with Putin.
Lesser of evils.
I the only one thinking things are starting to unravel around Putin? Will it be fast enough though?
As much as a shitshow as the Russian effort has been, Putin will keep throwing soldiers into the grinder, and just launch more missiles and artillery.
Russian military losses at least double Ukraines but he can afford to lose more,
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1502372530371317764?t=JAc621CqYHmdKwk15r8wEQ&s=19
Still all those deaths will not be popular at home and the sanctions will hurt
Also
https://twitter.com/Rosslyn43508202/status/1502315878582530051?t=AjaH2dwQq2LPlJ4MjGjobQ&s=19
Defecting pilots will have the repercussions on their families on their mind. I wouldn't be surprised if there's some other anti-defection measures in place, maybe something radio activated. Nice way to cause paranoia amongst the air crew though.
On the refugee question, I have no room. If I did, I'm afraid to say I probably still wouldn't. So much shit with having strangers in your home even as paying renters who you've personally vetted and have a known leaving date.
Very proud of Jnr today
I’m not surprised what a caring thing to do, double helping of pudding.
So you should be Kryton - as for pudding, more like ram raid the local ice cream parlour.
The 80’s documentary with the blond Russian robot boxer (and epic soundtrack) that I mentioned up there ^^ just finished on ITV. I posit Red Dawn for tomorrow night…
Yep, that is quite the plan that Putin and his generals came up with.
https://twitter.com/TimNeale65/status/1502454499793043459
I see on Twitter, seemingly reliable report, that the mayor of Mariupol has been kidnapped by Russian troops at gunpoint and with plastic bag on his head.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Mariia_Zolkina/status/1502306362960850949
It's just been on the beeb.
What is wrong with these people?
Can’t disagree, but OPEC have refused to increase output – their quite happy with short supply
OPEC shooting themselves in both feet as usual. All they've actually managed to accomplish is an aggressive and now politically acceptable switch away to renewable energy in Europe and increased reliance on domestic supply in the USA.
With any luck in twenty years the only things needing hydrocarbons are aircraft and synthetic fuels will be a reasonable proposition at that point.
Some sanity from Biden at least:
We must resist at all costs being pulled into this war based on emotion.
I haven't heard one EU, UK or US politician banging a drum to get us to get involved at all. Emotionally or not. I hear lots of "Here, have some guns, good luck, hope it goes well" but no one is saying "Hold my beer..."
We must resist at all costs being pulled into this war based on emotion.
Not sure whether this has been linked earlier but an interesting article about the need for NATO to redefine its position on triggers for intervention.
Biden is saying what many other political leaders have said.
It provides absolute clarity - if NATO hold to it.
Is of no help whatsoever to Ukraine and it's citizens.
But we will not fight a war against Russia in Ukraine
FFS. That's a great position, but to shout it out?
"Vlad here, lads. Just seen the tweet from Biden. We're good, no great to go with carpet bombing and chemicals - don't forget the rape squads - it'll be like Berlin and Austria all over again!"
Biden's making Trump look like a master tactician.
That’s a great position, but to shout it out?
Everyone already knew it.
Biden’s making Trump look like a master tactician.
To you, maybe...
If this is accurate, it's pretty amazing.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1502345408365748225
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1502345410274160641
Unfortunately for Ukraine the old "never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake" strategy is in play
The reality on the ground is terrible
Whether it's the right call in the long term is another question
Personally I think we are doing what we can, there are rough edges (refugees) and the toll on Ukraine but at the moment we need to be sorting our capabilities out as we will be no where near ready to engage if that becomes necessary
Still crap for Ukraine
thols - that was posted yesterday about 4 pages back.
vinnyeh - very interesting analysis in the link you posted; can't see any reason why NATO shouldn't now amend Article 5 - seems, to be, this should become a screaming imperative.
putin's modus operandi will, undoubtedly, have been noted by other authoritarians; as will NATO's military inaction.
I imagine thats coming soon now, as Russia have just announced convoys of military kit to help Ukraine valid military targets.
Clearly, they see NATO are scared of ww3 and are using this tactic to try to prevent supplies to Ukraine, but if one Russian fires over a border at a supply truck/plane, what happens then?
That’s a great position, but to shout it out?
I think the reason they're shouting it out is to prevent Putin using the possibility of NATO involvement as propaganda. Informed Russians know the war is a disaster, most Russians don't seem to think Ukraine is an enemy. Russians are distrustful of NATO so Putin would benefit politically from NATO getting involved. Not enforcing a no-fly zone, not supplying rusty old Migs from a NATO airfield, publicly announcing that NATO will not intervene are intended to destroy Putin's propaganda that he is protecting Russia from NATO by making it absolutely clear that NATO is not involved in combat.
Putin is backed into a corner, he dealt himself a losing hand and has played it badly. His political hail-Mary is to get NATO involved so that Russian popular opinion swings behind him as the man who led the Russian people through the NATO invasion. A single NATO boot on Ukrainian soil will be sold as a NATO invasion of Russia. Biden's statement was intended to torpedo that propaganda.
I imagine thats coming soon now, as Russia have just announced convoys of military kit to help Ukraine valid military targets.
Clearly, they see NATO are scared of ww3 and are using this tactic to try to prevent supplies to Ukraine, but if one Russian fires over a border at a supply truck/plane, what happens then?
They're trying to provoke NATO into getting involved. Propaganda stunt made out of desperation. Russia has realized they are losing badly and are going for hail-Mary stunts.
I imagine thats coming soon now, as Russia have just announced convoys of military kit to help Ukraine valid military targets.
Clearly, they see NATO are scared of ww3 and are using this tactic to try to prevent supplies to Ukraine, but if one Russian fires over a border at a supply truck/plane, what happens then?
Putin won't want to be the one to start a fight with NATO. It's a bluff.
Putin won’t want to be the one to start a fight with NATO. It’s a bluff.
It's exactly what he wants. He knows NATO will not try to invade Russia because Russia has thousands of nuclear armed ballistic missiles. Any fight with NATO would be limited, not a full-on nuclear war. Putin's afraid of Russian political opposition and the possibility of a military coup, he's not directly afraid of NATO. A limited war with NATO would strengthen his political position within Russia.
All politics is local.
. A limited war with NATO would strengthen his political position within Russia.
It would be a disaster for him. From the performance of the Russian armed forces so far they would get absolutely hammered. Their air force would be shot out of the sky and then the NATO airpower would decimate the armour.
On the ground, the T72's are no match for NATO MBT's and even the T90 is just a rebadged T72.
It would put him into a corner and could easily escalate.
I think the reason they’re shouting it out is to prevent Putin using the possibility of NATO involvement as propaganda.
A good point, but the media seems so controlled in Russia that they could strike first, claim NATO aggression and the poor buggers in Russia wouldn't know who to believe, only that they are at (bigger) war.
It's not unreasonable to take from Biden's statement that what goes on in Ukraine, stays in Ukraine. Hope is one of the most powerful weapons and I think his message will give heart to the aggressors and demoralise the defenders. Lacked subtle ambiguity and qualification, in my (very limited) view.
This is a good attempt to counter Russian media manipulation and distortion of the facts.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-60697261
A limited war with NATO would strengthen his political position within Russia.
Not if he's the one to start it.
Not if he’s the one to start it.
Which is why he's been trying to tempt NATO into getting involved. Shelling civilians trying to flee the war is deliberate. Putin is trying to lure NATO into sending in troops on humanitarian missions. As soon as NATO boots hit Ukrainian soil, Putin has the propaganda videos he needs to get Russian public opinion behind him and stop his generals escorting him to the window to admire the gardens of the palace. Putin is terrified of Russian public opinion. The only thing that can save him is if NATO gets involved and Russians hunker down to oppose the invaders.
Not if he’s the one to start it.
But he’d claim he didn’t start it! He’s already, with a great deal of success, blaming NATO and the USA especially for his current invasion further into Ukraine.
claim NATO aggression and the poor buggers in Russia wouldn’t know who to believe
Not just in Russia.
The invasion started not long after Biden said no NATO troops would be sent to Ukraine.
Whether they intend to do anything or not the ambiguity is useful in making Putin think twice, saying a definite no gives him carte blanche tk do whatever he likes
But Hols makes a good point about propaganda.
It's a tricky one...
It may be propaganda, but let's assume that instruction has made its way into the field.
Like I said, if a Russian soldiern acts upon it, what would NATOs reposne be?
Not just in Russia.
Yep.
The invasion started not long after Biden said no NATO troops would be sent to Ukraine.
The invasion was planned months in advance. Putin had already decided to invade, that's why Russia shipped an army to the borders of Ukraine. Biden's statement was made months after Putin had already decided to invade.
Not if he’s the one to start it.
But he’d claim he didn’t start it! He’s already, with a great deal of success, blaming NATO and the USA especially for his current invasion further into Ukraine.
A salient point. Significant numbers of people, in the west, in this thread, in the house of commons, on GB News, said this war was, really, NATO's fault. And that's in a country with a reasonably free press.
He doesn't need NATO to actually start anything, he just needs to be able to keep muddying the waters.
Putin is trying to lure NATO into sending in troops on humanitarian missions. As soon as NATO boots hit Ukrainian soil, Putin has the propaganda videos he needs to get Russian public opinion behind him and stop his generals escorting him to the window to admire the gardens of the palace.
Agree - dictators don't care about much so long as they are still rich, alive, and not in danger of being deposed. Kim Jong Un is happy enough to be an international pariah with a starving population, so long as he personally can keep quaffing the champagne. Putin would be no different.
If NATO actually did escalate it would any of the myopic posters on this thread admit it? 🤔
What do you mean exactly?
If NATO actually did escalate it would any of the myopic posters on this thread admit it?
I'll put it out here. I don't believe that NATO has any plans to escalate. If they do, I will publicly admit that I misread the situation. You can quote me on this.
Did the posters who insisted a few weeks ago that Russia was just bluffing, then gloated that Russia had withdrawn troops based on Russian propaganda claims, only to wake up the next day to find that Russian tanks were charging into Ukraine ever admit that they completely misread the situation? (Hint. This is a rhetorical question. Of course they didn't.)
Kim Jong Un is happy enough to be an international pariah with a starving population, so long as he personally can keep quaffing the champagne.
As much as he might think very differently, Kim's country is, geographically, merely the back porch to China and a Russian outhouse - I think that's one of reasons the Soviets, but mainly the Chinese, expended so much in the Korean war and why Kim is "tolerated".
He, personally, is as likely to be (if not more likely to be) removed by China as he is by America/South Korea.
The situation with Putin is, I believe, different. At the moment, Russia is the leader and the centrer of the federation - not a satellite or bulwark for a greater power. Once the pretence of reliability and economic power starts to ebb, the Federation begins to fail.
At the end of the Soviet era, the Russian economy was knackered - nothing worked, people didn't get paid, factories and products were looted wholesale (while Putin was havin' it KGB large in East Germany). If something economically similar occurs, I reckon he's out - and him trying to poke NATO to have a swing may mean he has a rapid, terminal "medical emergency".
I have seen loads of commentators admitting they were wrong about Russia invading.
I also feel like Putin's time is coming to an end. Fingers crossed soon! and fingers crossed the Russian people get someone decent to replace him.
fingers crossed the Russian people get someone decent to replace him.
+1
I have seen loads of commentators admitting they were wrong about Russia invading.
My apology to any who did. A lot of smart people thought it was a bluff.
The invasion was planned months in advance. Putin had already decided to invade, that’s why Russia shipped an army to the borders of Ukraine. Biden’s statement was made months after Putin had already decided to invade
This is true,but I took Biden's statement as an implied 'we know we can't stop you so go ahead' I remember thinking as soon as I heard it that we had reached the tipping point where it went from a threat, a maybe to a definite and it did.
The ambiguity was important in preventing/delaying the invasion.
thols2
Free MemberMy money on this is that Putin realizes that his bluff has been called and he slinks back to cower in his little grotto. He’s not going to win this, it’s just a matter of how badly he chooses to lose.
My apology to any who did. A lot of smart people thought it was a bluff
Good save Sir 😂
Good save Sir 😂
Thank you, despite my Scottish heritage, compliments are always appreciated.
A lot of people seem shocked by the blindingly obvious that has been explained several times over.
NATO exists to defend NATO members - boots on the ground to help Ukraine tragically wasn't going to happen, no matter what atrocities or false flags Putin carries out.
NATO may act to protect civilians if there is a UN declaration that permits it, but Russia and China won't let that happen.
This is all about Putin trying to protect his current position and create some sort of empire/legacy.
I am very intrigued by the apparent arrests of the the FSB people though - was someone believed to be planning on removing Putin maybe? S
I also feel like Putin’s time is coming to an end. Fingers crossed soon! and fingers crossed the Russian people get someone decent to replace him.
If we approach it from the rational perspective this might be the outcome (I don't have all the factors but only guessing ...)
1. The possibility is there (for Putin to slowly step down) if this Ukraine Russia war prolongs until 2024.
2. Most likely Putin will still be in power but perhaps just a figure head with less power.
The reasons are as follows:
1. Putin will not be able to press the button even if he wants. Partly because his supporters do not see the possibility of winning or to force NATO/West into a stalemate. However, this does not mean they will not use all the dirty tricks/bombs whatever except pushing the big red button.
2. A lot has to depend on China because China is not ready yet for the mother of all wars, hence they will object to Putin pressing the red button for now. (if they don't see a clear chance of winning or inflicting severe damage on their opponents (NATO/West etc). They rather build up their strength first than to expose their weaknesses.
2. Putin can fight but will not gain much and economically will suffer terribly. That's when China will have more say. The support for war might reduce a little (they still hate their opponents) and will just be postponed until the next round.
3. China will "rein in" Putin if China does not see any progression by 2024. Although currently in Public China is seen "neutral" but the support for Russia is there. Russia is China's buffer zone.
4. After that they will go back to their "drawing board" to plan again for next round.
If we apply the strongmen argument then, yes, he will push the red button (*all continents will enter the war) but he will also not enjoy the outcome (he will not have sitting targets and NATO/West will retaliate). After that the world will enter into a period of great starvation. Then all nations will hang their heads in shame.
* they have friends in many countries
I reckon he’s out – and him trying to poke NATO to have a swing may mean he has a rapid, terminal “medical emergency”.
A nine millimeter brain hemorrhage?
NATO exists to defend NATO members
? What were they doing in Libya?
If we approach it from the rational perspective
Putin's rationality is that he stays the boss of a nuclear armed superpower. Any outcome without that is not rational from his perspective. Understand your enemy.
Putin’s rationality is that he stays the boss of a nuclear armed superpower. Any outcome without that is not rational from his perspective. Understand your enemy.
If you apply that rationale that Putin will press the red button inevitably then why not strike first? In that case is it not rationale for NATO/West to strike first before Putin (and his friends) are fully prepared or become stronger? Not striking first means you let them gain the upper hand.
Bear in mind, Putin might have his rationale but he might not be able to implement it without objection from his "friends".
The situation with Putin is, I believe, different. At the moment, Russia is the leader and the centrer of the federation – not a satellite or bulwark for a greater power. Once the pretence of reliability and economic power starts to ebb, the Federation begins to fail.
At the end of the Soviet era, the Russian economy was knackered. If something economically similar occurs, I reckon he’s out – and him trying to poke NATO to have a swing may mean he has a rapid, terminal “medical emergency”.
I pretty much agree - it's a lot more complicated here. And I do think this is the beginning of the end for him.
But I think his only chance of political survival is to create a perception in Russia that he's the one standing up to the big western bullies, for the sake of the common Russian - and hope it sustains him long enough for the economy to get back on track.
(Unfortunately, the economy is now ****ed until he either backs down or agrees some kind of truce (eg keeps Crimea). Both of which still seem fairly unlikely at this point.)
But as noted above, he doesn't need NATO to fire any shots - he can just throw dirty bombs and chemical weapons at Mariupol until NATO can't stand aside any longer, and sends in medics/humanitarian workers/etc. Then he claims they're expanding even further East.
This is the sort of terrorist repression that people living in newly captured Ukraine can expect from Putin’s goon-squads.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/12/russia-ukraine-crimean-tatars-dissent-repression
Is of no help whatsoever to Ukraine and it’s citizens.
Same as the war in Yemen, which is just one of many wars that have barely been reported in recent years.
"We must do something" in a febrile atmosphere of emotional incontinence has caused us no end of problems, both domestic and foreign, over the years.
"What were they doing in Libya?"
And Kosovo.
i_scoff_cake
Free MemberDo we have a Yemen thread 120 pages long?
Probably a Google search would answer that question. Maybe it's a rhetorical question. If so, why not post it out in the open and say what you really mean?
A limited war with NATO...
But what's the chance of a "limited" war with NATO?
If NATO actually did escalate it would any of the myopic posters on this thread admit it?
Well I'm as myopic as any here I would think (check out my prescription) but if NATO attack Russia I don't think there would be any choice but to admit it?
I am very intrigued by the apparent arrests of the the FSB people though – was someone believed to be planning on removing Putin maybe? S
I don't think so - have a read of this thread. Looks more like Putin kicking off because he got poor info from the FSB*.
https://mobile.twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1502227866540515328
*Note also that big long letter from last weekend - apparently from a FSB officer. Pertinent quote:
"For example – you are being asked to analyze various outcomes and consequences of a meteorite attack – you research the mode of attack, and you are being told that it’s just a hypothetical and not to stress on the details, so you understand the report is only intended as a checkbox, and the conclusions of the analysis must be positive for Russia, otherwise you basically get interrogated for not doing good work."
No wonder he's getting poor info from the FSB!
@i_scott_cake
Do we have a Yemen thread 120 pages long?
Presumably, this was a backhanded way of asking, "why doesn't the Yemen crisis seem to be getting the same attention as Ukraine". Either that or you think the attention on Ukraine is an over reaction and the world should just ignore it like it does with other disputes?
So why does Ukraine matter enough to get this level of media attention? Because its geographically relatively close; does a murder 500 miles away get the same level of interest as one in your street? Because that part of the world seemed to be relatively calm for a long period; does yet another stabbing in inner city london get the same attention it would in a rural area with low crime? Because a number of people in the UK will visited Ukraine, and know people from Ukraine, significantly fewer have visited Yemen or ever met someone from Yemem - does a news story about a little village you visit on holiday spark more interest than a similar story about one you've never considered going to? Because the protagonist is a major nuclear superpower and has threatened any western state that might aid Ukraine with using Nuclear weapons - Saudi (and the other states in Yemen) are not Nuclear. Because Ukraine were formerly a nuclear state, and we have a treaty with them to come to their aid if nuclear weapons are used against them; but also this shit must make other nuclear states less inclined to disarm. And also probably because, although I don't claim to be an expert in Middle East politics etc, my understanding is that the Yemen situation is at least initially an internal civil war - not an entirely separate sovereign nation invading. But potentially also because it seems very unlikely that the Yemen issues could ever result in WW3 or directly impacting life here, but its quite possible Ukraine could if diplomats don't do a good job.
So I think its a totally false comparison.