Bloody hell ^^
Most of the commentators I have read on this subject don't distinguish academia from the other professions practiced by the "usual suspects".
Mods/Drac
Please don’t close the thread, this is a vital topic that needs to be open and there is a lot of useful information here for mostly silent observers like myself.
If it continues to descend (once again) into bad behaviour I (and I think many others) would prefer you ‘sanction’ the offenders or send them to the naughty step and let the thread continue otherwise we all lose out.
Agreed. There is huge value on this thread. Most of us know our inputs aren't going to change anything, and recognise that we don't have any special insight. But it is a valuable release of the tension we are all feeling and every now and then, someone does post something genuinely valuable or thought provoking. It is just ordinary people on a forum about bicycles expressing their fears, worries, ideas but there is therapy and value in that. Most people know how to behave, it is the same 3 or 4 people who derail it every single time. Ban them (again) but perhaps for a decent amount of time. Please don't chuck the baby out with the bath water by closing this thread.
I think there is never going to be any change in stance between those on here that think NATO has played a part in Putin invading Ukraine and those that simply see it as Putin's war based on his own megalomaniac agenda.
That argument will never resolve itself on here.
I'd prefer it if the discussion was simply about the terrible conflict going on right now in front of us angry day on TV and the likely outcome. Plus ways of potentially stopping this totally unnecessary waste of life.
Anyone wondering about the independent status of Ukraine might like to read Ukraine and the United Nations
Spoiler - It's an independent sovereign state.
If it continues to descend (once again) into bad behaviour I (and I think many others) would prefer you ‘sanction’ the offenders or send them to the naughty step and let the thread continue otherwise we all lose out.
Definitely this. There's 2-3 posters on both sides of the debate who don't seem to be able to express disagreement without a sneering tone that just isn't quite enough to make me hit the report button, and are utterly incapable of accepting that someone has a different opinion that they don't like and default to attack mode.
I'd happily like to have a month of not having to put up with that on this thread, and on the others that they play on.
Plus ways of potentially stopping this totally unnecessary waste of life.
Ukraine is not going to surrender and not going to accept anything less than evicting all Russian troops from Ukrainian soil. It hope this report is accurate and that Russian military capability collapses. The faster Russia loses, the fewer people will die.
https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1502216676540141570
@poopscoop Agreed:
I think there is never going to be any change in stance between those on here that think NATO has played a part in Putin invading Ukraine and those that simply see it as Putin’s war based on his own megalomaniac agenda.
The challenge comes with the second part of your statement:
Plus ways of potentially stopping this totally unnecessary waste of life.
Either Putin stops and rolls the tanks (and chemical weapons) back to Russia OR Ukraine gives in and subjugates its population to Russian totalitarianism, appeasement and frankly a miserable, deprived socio-economic future. Not to mention the risks that will be created as Putin will feel even more emboldened to expand elsewhere - I'd predict somewhere along the Baltic coast FWIW.
There really isn't a middle path to end suffering at this stage. Ukraine has already 'lost' and will continue to lose one way or another. thols post above seems like a reasonable assessment as it stands.
I'm going to call now that the Russians will use chemical / WMDs in Ukraine. We didn't do anything when the red line was crossed in Syria, so Putin will go ahead again now.
Mariupol is already a second Aleppo and Kyiv will be laid siege within the coming days. WMDs will follow soon after.
This all goes back to the point that the 'causes' of the war can't be agreed upon.
So personally, I'm going to keep pushing the Putin is at fault argument.
But I accept that others genuinely believe that NATO is somehow to blame.
I will never agree with them (as you say)! And that's because I think letting Russia take Ukraine will not give peace and stability in the short, medium or long terms.
If it continues to descend (once again) into bad behaviour I (and I think many others) would prefer you ‘sanction’ the offenders or send them to the naughty step and let the thread continue otherwise we all lose out.
Definitely agree.
Descenting opinions are a good thing, and do make us question our own opinions about certain matters, but we need to stick to the 'play the ball not the man' approach. There are a minority spoiling it for everyone and drowning out the sensible discussions.
Don't say 'this poster is an idiot', say 'I think this post is incorrect because of this evidence and here is what I think could be a better interpretation which is supported by this evidence', it's really not difficult.
^^ I really hope that's the case thols2
but I can't help thinking the end game is coming for Kyiv.
It's being surrounded and will be turned to rubble/ laid siege to. A 20th century approach with 21 century weapons. Brutal.
According to the BBC though the large Russian convoy has redeployed as a possible prelude to an attack on Kyiv - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60702464
How does NATO work, is it an "exclusive/or" club or can member states form additional treaties outside of the NATO remit?
What would happen if a mutual defence pact of ex-soviet states formed, including some that were in NATO, and became engaged in Ukraine?
Do you think if NATO and the EU hadn’t encouraged Ukraine to move westwards that the Ukrainian people wouldn’t now be at the mercy of a deranged dictator with the worlds second largest war machine at his disposal?
No Ukraine would be like Belarus or even subsumed into a "Greater Russia"
I’m going to call now that the Russians will use chemical / WMDs in Ukraine. We didn’t do anything when the red line was crossed in Syria, so Putin will go ahead again now.
What do the West do then?
If there is a chemical attack in Mariupol which kills 30 people, do we respond?
If it kills 1,000?
If Putin thinks the war is lost and takes an 'if I can't have it no one will' approach and uses a nuclear weapon against Kyiv?
What if the West do respond, is that WW3? What if they don't, is that carte blanche for him to do literally anything short of attacking a NATO member? Or would he then think he could attack a NATO member having proved he is willing and capable of using these weapons and we dare not respond?
Please don't close this thread. From a selfish point of view - I have loved ones over in Kharkiv, the last 2+ weeks has been a living nightmare, and as you can imagine it is a thousand-thousand-fold for people over there.
There are not many sources of information that are easy to deal with at the moment. The majority of my actual information is from directly speaking to people who are sat frightened in their homes (or other people's homes) listening right now to Russian shelling and bombing, gunshots and planes, while their children are frightened senseless. I hope to come here to see reasonable posts, find a little information from people who know a little more than me or are better connected.
Arguing and point scoring does not help anyone. I suggest to those who feel strongly enough to argue, put your feelings to good use and donate to the AUGB or the other associations then go and get some fresh air to defrag, knowing that you are completely free and safe, something simple that is just not possible for people in Ukraine now or for the foreseeable.
Please don’t close this thread.
Likewise. I can't see how STW would benefit from closing it because things get heated. Provided it's not breaking the law I struggle to understand why it needs moderating at all.
I even wonder of Putin will attempt to install a puppet government into Ukraine now.
How long would their life expectancy be with a hostile population and many, many munitions in their control.
I think he'll try to rule it as a province of Russia but even then it will require a huge and constant military presence.
As always, getting out of Ukraine will be much harder than invading it.
Good luck to your family and friends, hope they remain safe.
My money is still on the Russian army collapsing in the next three weeks. Hopefully without too much carnage on the civilian population
It’s the insulating from both parties.
I hope you’re not including me in this as I haven’t insulated anyone.
Good luck to your family and friends, hope they remain safe.
+1
I suggest to those who feel strongly enough to argue, put your feelings to good use and donate to the AUGB or the other associations then go and get some fresh air to defrag, knowing that you are completely free and safe, something simple that is just not possible for people in Ukraine now or for the foreseeable.
AUGB
Help Ukraine Emergency Appeal: https://www.gofundme.com/f/helpukraine
Disasters Emergency Committee
UKRAINE HUMANITARIAN APPEAL: https://donation.dec.org.uk/ukraine-humanitarian-appeal
Provided it’s not breaking the law I struggle to understand why it needs moderating at all.
It needs moderating because there are plenty of people with interesting info and thought provoking opinions who get crowded out by the usual blowhards. It'll be good for a few pages, and suddenly there's 100 posts in a row by about 6 people dominating the whole thing, having much the same argument they had 30 pages back. It makes the thread less useful and less interesting.
My money is still on the Russian army collapsing in the next three weeks.
I'm sad to say I'd take your money...
The Russian Army has been 'successfully' shelling Mariupol for weeks now. Those guys firing rockets into the city and innocent civilians don't seem ready to collapse.
Putin is also already hedging his bets by recruiting from Syria and Central Africa (see above), plus he has Wagner et al if things really go pear-shaped, so I'm afraid collapse is wishful thinking.
In the same way last week people were assuming that Russian convoy (which is now beginning to encircle Kyiv) would be a sitting duck... Most of it is still intact and its guns are already pointing at Kyiv.
Likewise. I can’t see how STW would benefit from closing it because things get heated. Provided it’s not breaking the law I struggle to understand why it needs moderating at all.
Because it’s not about legal complications, its about the forum rules and the fact it’s requiring more and more of our time to mod. We are already trying to deal with those who are disrupting the thread.
I am wondering how many artillery shells and rockets the Russians can actually supply, and continue to manufacture?
I cant be the only one who has been tempted to quote post two from the CV thread in here.
im concerned that while western governments have been reasonably coordinated in their sanctions approach, that international business wading into the situation is just removing the few face saving about turn options available to Putin..
its about the forum rules and the fact it’s requiring more and more of our time to mod. We are already trying to deal with those who are disrupting the thread.
There are individuals whose postings follow a relentlessly vexatious pattern to get a minor point across that ends up derailing the thread. They are not adding to the discussion just playing stupid pseudo-intellectual games to show the world how wonderful they are.
We all know who they are. Ban them for a week.
If the Russians are struggling with fuel and equipment and it is going to get cold those soldiers he's going to bring in are not going to fair well. The cold will be well outside their normal operating conditions. It'd feel bloody hard for us to spend a day in. They, worryingly, need to be used in a shock and awe way and given they are also expendable it could get horrific.
We all know who they are. Ban them for a week.
Dare I ask who they are? I think you need to be specific as I don't really know who you're talking about. Seems to me all you're doing is suggesting that people who disagree with you should be banned.
I'm actually wondering what the UK supplies are like of stuff like NLAWs and MANPADS - I fully support giving weapons to Ukraine but I'm hoping they're replenishing stocks in the background in case things do escalate....
Also wondering if we or the US has a good surface-to-ship system that can be easily deployed and used with minimal training - those Russian Navy ships lurking off the Ukrainian coast would be sitting ducks (given they've already taken one out with MLRS) and would be far more of a loss and humiliation to the Russians than tanks etc.
Facebook has just popped up with a request for donations for a sponsored ride from London to Kyiv. I appreciate the motives but….
EDIT just re-read it and they are going to be doing the distance between London & Kyiv not the actual route. As you were😐
Dare I ask who they are? I think you need to be specific as I don’t really know who you’re talking about. Seems to me all you’re doing is suggesting that people who disagree with you should be banned.
I think you probably know who they are. On both sides of the debate on this thread. And other threads.
And a week isn't long enough. The mods have been trying to reduce their impact on the quality of the forum debates for a few weeks now, and they are just taking the piss.
I'll take a month long ban if anyone finds this offensive.
Facebook has just popped up with a request for donations for a sponsored ride from London to Kyiv. I appreciate the motives but….
Facebook suggested I might like to join the Ukranian Foreign Legion. Their algorithms are clearly not understanding how a keyboard warrior operates 🤣
Maybe if people find themselves having an endless circular argument on this thread they could take a break and move over to the 'Tell me an interesting fact' thread for a while.
Seems to me that thread was custom-designed for endless pedantic arguments.
Facebook suggested I might like to join the Ukranian Foreign Legion. Their algorithms are clearly not understanding how a keyboard warrior operates 🤣
have they got a cyber warfare division?
or a social media corps?
I am wondering how many artillery shells and rockets the Russians can actually supply, and continue to manufacture?
They are reported to have limited stocks of modern smart weapons. They will have huge stocks of old cold war stuff. Whether it's been stored properly and hasn't degraded is another question. That stuff won't include modern smart weapons but I think Russia probably has enough artillery shells and rockets to level every city in Ukraine. Finding enough trucks and fuel to deliver it seems to be their most urgent problem.
MANPADS
The UK system relies on a high level of operator training, it's nigh on impossible to fire off the shoulder and hit anything
Defending key locations is what it's good at but the ground defended area is small but that assumes guided munitions, it may do better against what is currently being used from the air
However it can hit out to 5km IIRC and will give the helicopter pilots a lot to worry about. FGA will also hate it but it's designed to hit them head on not to chase
It was traditionally deployed with ADAS which is a great passive early warning system which I would have thought would be quite helpful as well
-
.
I’m hoping they’re replenishing stocks in the background in case things do escalate
I'd hope that manufacturers the world over can spin up production demand - or they've been building stockpiles for a while, probably since 2014.
Maybe it’s just me but I’d much rather see reasonable debate about the issues than stuff like FuzzyWuzzy’s above going on about MANPADS/NLAWS/MLRS etc.
I am absolutely not a war-whore, and I am stridently not into military anything. However I really value the input from people with armed forces and weapons knowledge and experience here because it allows me to make sense of what I am reading, and I am also looking for hope in the situation which does help my state of mind - however futile that hope ends up being. And the actual veterans we have here often seem to be the voices of reason, honesty, restraint and compassion. I wonder why that would be...
have they got a cyber warfare division?
or a social media corps?
Same thing innit.
Seems that Putin has called for foreign volunteers to fight for him in Ukraine. That's interesting, it sort of backs up the narcissist theory (i.e. he just needs to be popular) because it would appear he can't stand the fact that people are volunteering for Ukraine but not for him,
With all the talk about Putin may not want to stop with Ukraine and expans further I can't help but remember some of my schoolboy reading of the Biggles books and in particular "Biggles sees it through". Set in Finland and the Winter War (First Soviet-Finnish War).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War
A few similarities.
That or he wants to keep some quality troops back out of paranoia and has had it pointed out to him his conscripts wont really cut it and even his autocratic powers might run into some issues if too many kids come home in body bags.
Hence hiring a bunch of battle hardened "volunteers" would be a better option.
Surely pootin wouldn't compromise the containment of radioactive waste or fuel to invoke Chernobyl II? Mad people do mad things.
Reports of a Belarus false flag bombing of a village
Seems that Putin has called for foreign volunteers to fight for him in Ukraine. That’s interesting, it sort of backs up the narcissist theory
I just assumed that it was advance justification for bringing in people borrowed from his allies armies, like Syria.
Instead of what? Armchair aid workers, wannabe geo-political commentators? How are any of you who think you're having a highbrow conversation about something you also know very little about any better than those throwing their 2 pence into the mix about matters pertaining to the military aspects?
Facebook has just popped up with a request for donations for a sponsored ride from London to Kyiv. I appreciate the motives but….
What handlebar mount for a NLAW?
Who are most likely brutal bastards with even less regard for human life than most. I already dread to think the way any Ukrainian POW's are being treated, with some of these irregular and volunteers in the mix it all starts to get a bit more murky.
Hence hiring a bunch of battle hardened “volunteers” would be a better option.
There's no way GoPro haven't done an adaptor for that surely?
What handlebar mount for a NLAW?
The issue is that it’s a false narrative, NATO doesn’t force countries to join it. The sovereign state applies, usually waits a few years then gets in.
NATO membership requirements are tough for the former Soviet bloc countries
I am certain that Russia has a expansionist strategy, it regularly deploys it’s military and paramilitary forces to satellite states to maintain a sympathetic leader in situ. Examples Belarus and Kazakhstan etc
This, in my humble opinion, sums it up succinctly. Ukraine has been an independent country for around a thousand years, since Vikings arrived and settled. AFAIK, Moscow wasn’t much more than a village when Kyiv was a city!
It’s a fact that NATO doesn’t go to a State or Country and say “we want you to join”, a country has to express a desire to join, then go through an extended process afterwards, as stated above. Otherwise, I’m pretty damn sure that Finland and Sweden would have been members long before now, purely because of their geographical location, in particular Finland who fought off the Russians quite successfully about, what, a century ago? Can’t remember, but Russia had its ass handed to it on a plate, something that Putin ought to be reminded of, as much of Finland’s army were armed civilian volunteers - a parallel with Ukraine. #WinterWar
@cheburaska🇺🇦 - My heart goes out to you and your friends and family in Ukraine; having lost someone I loved suddenly almost exactly a year ago, I’ve discovered what grief really feels like, but I can’t even begin to comprehend how it must be for you! I just don’t have the words available to express my sorrow for your situation, I can really only hope that they’re safe now, and can find safety as soon as possible. My very best wishes to you and yours. 🌻❤️🇺🇦
Russia's uncle fester is currently telling the UN all about the chemical and biological weapons they've found in Ukraine. Birds being trained to spread the contagion.
Not sure how he can look at himself in the mirror at night.
Thanks CZ, and everyone else, your thoughts are appreciated. They are relatively lucky compared to some over in Ukraine. But they're certainly not in a safe place, they have no option to leave and there have been many very frightening moments and some close calls.
War is always ****.
And I apologise, not been functioning quite right recently - I must add that am very sorry for your loss CZ.
Word to that, they'd be royally bounced if they started sharing details. OSA and all that malarkey.
I’ve tried asking my mate who’s the former ambassador to NATO and the UN, and he reckons that you won’t get a squeak out of anyone close to what is happening day to day.
Back to denigrating then
because it often exposes an interest/enthusiasm for the weaponry and hardware of war rather than the victims of it.
Do you need to be? If you watch the documentary’ Winter on Fire’ it gives you a pretty good idea of what the Ukrainian people wanted after the end of the soviet era, which they were denied by their pro-Moscow corrupt regime
But you carry on with your Kremlin apologism if you like. Are you enjoying the genocide? It certainly seems that way
I'm sure it's not that simple, especially with the post-2014 regime attacking the rights of ethnic Russians in Ukraine.
The fact is that Ukraine had a working government pre-2014 and American politicians went to Ukraine to egg on what was in effect a mob coup. How would you feel about Russian or Chinese politicians appearing in Edinburgh to interfere in a Scottish independence referendum?
From another POV this is just another disaster caused by America meddling in the politics of other countries far beyond its shores.
I’m sure it’s not that simple, especially with the post-2014 regime attacking the rights of ethnic Russians in Ukraine.
Be genuinely interested in a source for that to see the "other" side of the debate.
If you really want my view then yeah I do have a bit of a problem with armchair generals, because it often exposes an interest/enthusiasm for the weaponry and hardware of war rather than the victims of it. Talk of weapons and miltary tactics only serves to dehumanise the real impact of war and reduces it to a something akin to a game. IMO we should leave the macho military talk to the people doing the fighting.
I have given some input on military aspects on this thread, because I have some (admittedly dated) professional knowledge. As have others, who've stated their credentials when challenged. I do so because it's what I know about, so feel it may be useful to some. It's not the only aspect but it is a significant one which may have a big impact on the duration/outcome. I feel it is valid to talk about it, amongst the many other important aspects, without fixating on it.
Despite my technical knowledge, I have a deep and personal understanding of the terminal effects of military munitions through personal experience. Trust me, it sometimes keeps me awake at night. The insinuation that I think it's a game, do it to be macho or dehumanise people, or get some kind of sick thrill out of it is very, very offensive.
How would you feel about Russian or Chinese politicians appearing in Edinburgh to interfere in a Scottish independence referendum?
Umm, I'm sure I have no idea what it's like for foreign powers to interfere in referendums...
thanks for your contributions blokeuptheroad, they are always interesting and useful.
I think anti-war views are very welcome by EVERYONE here.
Haven't seen a single person on this thread of more than 4,000 posts express support or enjoyment of war.
Umm, I’m sure I have no idea what it’s like for foreign powers to interfere in referendums…
We're still pushing what amounts more or less to a myth even after the Trump/Steele dossier was debunked as completely fake?
Yes before 2014 and 2004 Ukraine was a state operating within the sphere of Russian economic and military influence. It wasn’t fully independent, but which countries are?
It was an independent sovereign state, as independent of Russia as Egypt is of Turkey. Could you explain why you think this wasn't so?
Also interesting that you paint 2004 as a negative, the actual election winner was suspected of being poisoned by Russia and the eventual loser was the same guy that was overthrown, again, in 2013. The people of Ukraine clearly have no time for Viktor Yanukovych and his corruption and this is now being used as some sort of victim blaming.
We’re still pushing what amounts more or less to a myth even after the Trump/Steele dossier was debunked as completely fake?
Er, no. I even had to look up what the Trump Steele dossier was.
We may have been thinking about other events to you.
"Not sure how he can look at himself in the mirror at night."
Vampires cast no reflection rememner?
because it often exposes an interest/enthusiasm for the weaponry and hardware of war rather than the victims of it.
If you understand the weaponry, you understand the effects of it, you understand what it can do and what it can't do. By understanding what vehicles and kit is in say; the convoy headed to Kyiv you get a greater understanding about why it's not being targeted by the Ukrainians, if you understand the difference between a T80 and a T90 it tells you something about the Russian forces currently deployed in the south. If you don't understand any of this I don't think you get a full picture of what's going on.
Earlier Biden said that there would be serious consequences if Russia uses chemical weapons. The Russian guy on the UN security council is creating a false flag story to set up an excuse to deploy chemical weapons.
It's a horribly grim situation but where does NATO go if/when they do use them? What other sanctions are available or is this the escalation point?
Seems to me that thread was custom-designed for endless pedantic arguments.
Cheeky sod, it was designed to help me bore friends and family to death with useless but (to me) interesting facts.😁
On a more serious point, I personally do want to know about the technical aspects of the tools of war being used. I don't get kicks from seeing them used but it's another aspect of the invasion that I know I want to know about rather than be clueless.
I most definitely know it's not a game, I've never been reduced to tears over a game.
My whole family both sides are all current/former mil and we do not really talk about UKR. Waste of time. Till it shows up on our doorstep maybe we will give a sh1t.
I see the government at suggesting that the public offer to take in refugees
Whilst I can bet my bottom dollar that none of the Tory elite will be offering up their second or third homes free of charge, it’s something I think we have a moral duty to consider if we can
I live on my own with 3 free rooms. Half of me thinks I should absolutely let some one stay in one of them if they are fleeing that xxxx putin. But tbh, sharing my house with a random for 6 months does not appeal in the slightest. Is anyone else going to consider this?
I think they should all be given Priti Patel's address, or Liz Truss's. They can then sort out who created this shit show
But tbh, sharing my house with a random for 6 months does not appeal in the slightest. Is anyone else going to consider this?
Me and Mrs Bloke have talked about this. We have 2 empty bedrooms. It would depend on how long for and a few other things, but we came to the conclusion that we would very seriously consider it.
Very proud of Jnr today. They have a new very nervous and scared boy starting in class this week, a Ukrainian war immigrant. He speaks no English, and understanding enough about the geographies and situation Jnr has taken him under his wing at school and has introduced him to his friend Patrik. Patrik is Polish, and is able to translate enough so their new friend can communicate and understand what's going on.
Its a tiny but lovely thing to do.
We've already talked about letting someone use the spare bedroom. We have Slovak friends with family very close to the border so it feels very "personal" already.
But tbh, sharing my house with a random for 6 months does not appeal in the slightest. Is anyone else going to consider this?
I have an occasionally spare bedroom so would definitely consider it.
But tbh, sharing my house with a random for 6 months does not appeal in the slightest
I would.
Its a tiny but lovely thing to do.
That just made it very dusty here. Huge CHAPEAU to your jnr @Kryton57
I see the government at suggesting that the public offer to take in refugees
It would help if that fit faced fat arsed evil POS could actually let some in.
*I've been in a 24hours news blackout so don't know if Ukrainian's have started arriving yet?
The fact is that Ukraine had a working government pre-2014 and American politicians went to Ukraine to egg on what was in effect a mob coup.
Well if it was American interference the Ukranian people seem to have been happy with the opportunity given to them. Let's not forget that there have since been free presidential and parliamentary elections resulting in a landslide for Zelensky and his party.