"but the situation in Russia is not the same as here, and I share the hope others have in the young of Russia… despite everything stacked against them… accepting that is just a hope, a wish, a longing… and I’m desperately clinging to anything that helps give strength to that hope."
I think the brightest and best will just pack their bags and go somewhere else to be honest.
A lot of talk about regime change on here.
I'd love to know how intensive the cyber war is against Russia.
They have some very talented independents going after them, Anonymous for a start. Then there must be an absolute deluge of attacks from western countries now playing Russia at its own game. I suspect relishing the chance to go after the*****.
I hope they are absolutely ripping its infrastructure apart from the inside.
I have just had a video call with a Russian friend and he is distraught at what is happening because of one man. As a company we have paused sending product to Russia for two weeks but he knows and I know that we are just buying time to closing the business.
He has two kids at university in Germany, he currently pays €900 per month each, that has effectively just gone up to €1300 per month for him. His daughter needs to renew her Visa in March, he can see them having to return very soon either because of finances or restrictions. He is very worried about anti Russian sentiment.
Everything costs more in the shops already. They expect to run out of lots of things quite quickly but most notably spare parts for vehicles and planes etc. (we did joke that they do not need as many planes now)
He seemed broken and embarrassed but realises they need to pay the price for Putin, he cannot see things improving for decades
Pretty much all the young people in this country didn’t want Brexit or vote for it. They got Brexit. Pretty much all the young people in this country didn’t want a Tory government or vote for it. They got a Tory government.
Binners - I think you are wrong about that. There are young tory voters. There are young brexiteers. They aren't the majority but its wrong to think they are tiny minority either. There's all sorts of things influence them - not least of which is family. Its difficult to believe that Russia's political demographics will be that different: young, making progress in life, aware you are luckier than some, family who embrace 2020s - I think they'll not be keen on Putin. But young, struggling to cope in russia, being told be those around you that its the west's fault and that things were better in the past - I suspect there's putin supporters there too.
I’d love to know how intensive the cyber war is against Russia.
I was curiously looking at RT and Sputnik .com sites last night and any article away from the front pages was suffering a DDOS attack. Nice!
Sadly seems back to normal today.
Still, worth a laugh / huge dose of indignance if you fancy a look.
same story from a colleague; she has savings and pensions in Russian banks that are impossible to access and value dropping like a stone. She's working in the UK, developing science to support the UK economy and wants no part of Putin's plans, but is hurting nonetheless.
I think the brightest and best will just pack their bags and go somewhere else to be honest.
I think many of them already have...
Atlantic Council article from two years ago
I am no economist or military expert or nuanced politician, but what will Putin achieve with this war now.
If in another month the Russian Army has destroyed everything and occupied the whole of Ukraine, what will be left. The surviving Ukrainians will either resist at some level, or just leave.
With the Russian economy in tatters, anyone with qualifications will try and leave.
With the brain drain and falling population in both Ukraine and Russia causing a vicious circle, he would need to turn both into giant prisons, cut off from the world. No one can leave (like the Berlin/East German wall) and no internet connection to stop people seeing how good the rest of the world is living. Like North Korea.
I suspect Putin doesn't actually care.
Russian people will be hurting on the economical side you have got to feel for them
Indeed yes and we in Germany are paying the price for Putins war too, right now. However, non of this type of "hurt" is anything like that of residents in Ukraine.
I notice that Russia is often referred to as an Oligarchy; it should be defined as a Kleptocracy -
kleptocracy
klep-ˈtä-krə-sē plural kleptocracies
Definition of kleptocracy: government by those who seek chiefly status and personal gain at the expense of the governed;: a particular government of this kind
There are alarming similarities with the convoy heading to Kyiv to that of the convoy from Germany to the Ardennes in the Blitzkrieg in 1940.
Back then the French didn't believe it could happen (if they had, the invasion and potentially the entire war could have been avoided) but this time unfortunately there simply isn't the firepower available (without Western intervention) to stop it.
Luckily STW users are already hardened to the effects of cyberwarfare against the forum.
PS how long until someone puts a techno (house) track based on those gun shots over that clip? Also, looting already?
I'm surprised he didn't get a Molotov cocktail lobbed at him.
Also, looting already?
Of course, he probably hasn’t been paid for ages, and any opportunity to grab something that he likely could never afford anyway has got to be a great temptation.
Just look at opportunistic looting in America whenever there are protests that involve any form of violence.
edit: That abandoned T-80; I wonder if it ran out of fuel? Also, I wonder if the crew disabled it?
German tank crews were ordered to destroy their vehicles if they were disabled during WW2, however not all of them did. One was captured in North Africa after being abandoned, and it was returned to the U.K., where it was discovered that an unexploded anti-tank round had jammed the turret ; after the turret was lifted off, and the shell removed, it worked perfectly. And still does, at Bovington on their annual Tiger Day, when it’s driven for the public to see.
If that T-80 just needs fuel, that would be a valuable resource for the Ukrainians.
Apologies if its already been posted, but came across this and seems to reinforce a lot of what's been discussed here
The young are outnumbered in Europe, in the States, in Russia and with their one child policy, China.
The post war world that we grew up with in the West was in large part shaped by the youthful energy and reforming zeal of the 60's. They had agency in numbers then, they don't any more.
I know not all the youth of the world are SJW's but if the demographics were more like those of a generation or two ago we wouldn't be having this conversation.
Sorry to be so depressing but it's the hope that kills you. Even if Putin were to fall I don't think the world would change that much and the most likely scenario is that we'll be putting up a new iron curtain (made in china) sometime soon.
Honestly though Pat Robertson was dead. He was an MS-DOS version of Trump from the 80’s.
😂
Does this make Trump a Windows Vista version of himself... Full of public expectation, but bloated and full of shit, never delivered what it promised and disappeared almost as quickly as it came? 🤔
A lot of talk about regime change on here.
Serious question... Do you see another way out?
Whether it's now, next week, next year, and however it is achieved etc... He's threatened the world with Nuclear weapons if he doesn't get his own way in a brutal and unprovoked attack on one of his oldest allies and neighbours!🤷🏻♂️
I’d love to know how intensive the cyber war is against Russia.
They have some very talented independents going after them, Anonymous for a start.
Anonymous threatened a couple of days ago that on 3rd March they will remove all cash from Russian individuals' bank accounts, and pay it directly into a Ukrainian was support account, and urged the Russian individuals to take their money out of their bank accounts now or they will lose it all...
Take that how you will, might just be helping to pour fuel on the fire that is raging where Russians are pulling money out of banks in droves currently, but I guess we'll find out tomorrow if they mean business!
Just look at opportunistic looting in America whenever there are protests that involve any form of violence.
This is 'supposedly' a well-marshalled military force. Any sign that discipline is breaking down already is either a very good sign for Ukrainians (desertions etc), or a very bad one.
Ukrainians trying to win the war using Binners' methods. Pies for peace. 🙂
https://twitter.com/gtconway3d/status/1499020491297857542
Does this make Trump an Windows Vista version of himself… Full of public expectation, but bloated and full of shit, never delivered what it promised and disappeared almost as quickly as it came? 🤔
Putin certainly needs the same Windows update he's offered to political opponents and journalists.
Anonymous threatened a couple of days ago that on 3rd March they will remove all cash from Russian individuals’ bank accounts, and pay it directly into a Ukrainian was support account, and urged the Russian individuals to take their money out of their bank accounts now or they will lose it all…
I too am intrigued to see if that is a headgame or reality.
What I am not sure about is hitting the average Russian as a way of attacking the leader (who we know probably has so much money abroad/gold/property/resources).
Headgame, I very much doubt they would be able to penetrate millions of individual accounts in Russian banks. They are trying to exacerbate any run on the banks.
If we look at Russia when behind the iron curtain, or north Korea today, neither needed the west or western banks or economies to remain stable within their own territories.
So I dont know how much effect devaluing the Rouble will actually have in real terms. And as to deposing Putin from within, Stalin was an evil murderer who disposed of his enemies, with others ready and willing to fill their roles without even a thought to the previous colleague or their family.
Stalin killed upwards of 20 million of his own people and died of natural causes. So wishing for someone within the ranks of the Russian political system or military to depose or dispose of Putin, might only be wishful thinking, but in reality isnt ever going to be the case.
But its a different Russia to what was behind the Iron Curtain so the parallels can't be drawn. To become an economically independent state in that manner would not be possible, despite how repressive the regime currently is.
Christ, that Russian soldier is just a child, really. Reminds me very much of photos I saw recently of a 16-yo German soldier, Hans-Georg Henke…
"A lot of talk about regime change on here.
Serious question… Do you see another way out?"
...................
Yes, it is quite possible that Putin remains in power.
My comment was more in relation to how quickly a conversation about a war turns into the topic of regime change. We have some recent examples of how that worked out and that was with tin pot dictators. This is on a whole other level, yet we all too easily see an equivalence.
German tank crews were ordered to destroy their vehicles if they were disabled during WW2,
I'm pretty sure this is standard practice among professional soldiers.
If that T-80 just needs fuel, that would be a valuable resource for the Ukrainians.
I'm more amazed at leaving a vehicle full of ATGMs just sitting there. Even if the vehicle has been disabled, it's pretty likely the Ukrainians will be able to repurpose the missiles.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498617633826082817
That pic up there:
Purple hair = probably not a Nazi.
If we look at Russia when behind the iron curtain, or north Korea today, neither needed the west or western banks or economies to remain stable within their own territories.
There are people starving to death on mass in North Korea and the majority of the population lives in terrible poverty, they're one bad harvest from collapse. The Leadership can only control this through brutality.
As for Russia, or the USSR, look at the reasons why it fell? The people demanded Perestroika - reform and Glasnost - openness, they wanted the sort of lives that people on the other side of the curtain had, that couldn't be done as an isolated Nation, even one as huge as the USSR, and their War in Afghanistan, because Russians could see that the Red Army was not only 'the goodies' but not the invincible force they'd been lead to believe it was all over. They saw the poverty they suffered at home to maintain the Cold War and the War in Afghanistan. Putin might think he owns Domestic Media, but he can't control the global media when any kid with a simple browser VPN can access Twitter.
This is more like the end of the Cold War than the start of a new one.
Russia when behind the iron curtain, or north Korea today, neither needed the west or western banks or economies to remain stable within their own territories.
Not really. The reason communism ended was basically economic. The USSR ran out of money. It was doing whatever it could to get hold of $ (or any decent foreign currency).
If you think back to the queues outside the shops, the many year wait for Ladas and so on, that will give you a pretty good idea of how relatively unstable the Soviet economy was in its last days. That really wasn't propaganda, it was daily reality for many millions of Soviet citizens.
the Soviet Union begat a Russian Federation with a growing pile of $66 billion in external debt and with barely a few billion dollars in net gold and foreign exchange reserves.[22]
Quoted from Wikipedia (I know!)
Saw a nice bit of trolling from the Ukraine Tax authorities who stated that farmers who capture russian armoured vehicles don't need to declare them on their annual tax returns!
I'm skeptical of these stories about Russians refusing to fight, but even if they're not in open mutiny, I'm pretty sure their grandparents would be ashamed of the lack of effort they seem to be putting in.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1498814379197927424
Not really. The reason communism ended was basically economic. The USSR ran out of money. It was doing whatever it could to get hold of $ (or any decent foreign currency).
And what are the current sanctions doing to the Russian economy?
I’m skeptical of these stories about Russians refusing to fight, but even if they’re not in open mutiny, I’m pretty sure their grandparents would be ashamed of the lack of effort they seem to be putting in.
Really? I'm sure some of their grandparents would be mighty proud of teenage boys who say, "hang on a minute, why are we fighting our next door neighbours, people who 30 years ago were part of our soviet union, who have not attacked us". Certainly I'd be proud of my 18 yr old if he was conscripted into the British Army, marched over to Ireland to take back Dublin and turned round and said "no".
"Putin might think he owns Domestic Media, but he can’t control the global media when any kid with a simple browser VPN can access Twitter."
Unfortunately a lot of Russians aren't bothering, apathy having set in so deeply. That could change but how quickly? Probably not quick enough for the Ukranians.
If I were a Russian, young or not I might be thinking of getting out before that new iron curtain gets delivered by Amazon (or the Russian / Chinese equivalent). I wouldn't take my erm...'fredom of movement' for granted.
Edit:
A passport could easily become a privilege for the next generation of Russians.
changing the text of roadsigns to “Russians F*ck Off” is Clarkson level genius.
I like one of the other examples where they had changed all the placenames to The Hague.
And what are the current sanctions doing to the Russian economy?
A rhetorical question?
I'm in no doubt that sanctions are having a real impact. We'll have to await the stock market opening to see some true damage. But, the value of the rouble, the withdrawal of major foreign firms from Russia and several 'anecdotes' on here from those with friends and relatives in Russia shows there is a pretty significant impact already.
Is there another aspect I'm missing?
Google? What are you doing?
There are reports of the Russians using google maps with pins/tags for navigation and even targeting.
It does seem somewhat bizarre especially the making it public but I can see why Google have gone for the simple disable the lot.
They had already turned the traffic/how busy somewhere is off a few days back in Ukraine since that could have been useful for Russian attacks.
One example, but if you search 'Russian POW' on twitter there are dozens more. Many if not most of them are shockingly young and seemingly clueless as to why they are there, or even where they are!
https://twitter.com/stan931/status/1498263977737994242?s=20&t=-gaFSjy8N7sa5KO-XopfOQ
the Roman Abramovich thing, does raise a few questions, not seeing it coming (the invasion) and as surprised as everyone else? not told (perhaps not as chummy as first thought) ? told not to give the game away (I'll pay you back later) by selling off assets ?
