A Congressional vote originally posted in April last year (yes, 2025) by Representative Gregory Meeks (Dem) has been rumbling on since then. It was essentially ignored by the Republican-controlled lower house, and Speaker Mike Johnson (who has previous under the Biden Presidency) didn't timetable a vote.
It was put to the vote after a 218 signature discharge petition elevated it beyond Johnson's reach. Eighteen Republicans (and one Democrat) rebelled against the whip in the vote, which was carried, 226 to 195 against.
Historically, discharge petitions have a strong failure rate and for various reasons (see the full article) this one is unlikely to succeed beyond the House of Representatives either.
"The GOP-controlled House on Thursday passed legislation authorizing funding for military aid to Ukraine and sanctions on Russia, a largely symbolic move that nonetheless demonstrates some Republicans’ willingness to buck President Trump on foreign policy."
"In a glaring example of how far Republican support has turned away from Ukraine, the few GOP members voting on Wednesday is far less than the 101 Republicans who voted for supplemental assistance to Ukraine in April 2024."
http://thehill.com/policy/international/5911086-house-passes-ukraine-aid/
Russian and Iranian oil price premiums are dropping.
A "teapot" isn't some weird AI translation, it's a term for a small, independent oil refinery in China that primarily buys the cheapest oil 😀
Summary:
Iranian Light crude flips into discount of 50 cents to $1/bbl
China's May Iranian crude imports hit 16-month low, Kpler says
Shandong refiners cut output on poor margins
Russian crude premium also weakens
http://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iranian-oil-slips-discount-poor-chinese-demand-despite-tighter-supply-2026-06-04/
The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF)
Germany's AfD party accepted invitations to SPIEF for four senior party members.
AfD is polling well in Germany ahead of five state elections in September
Petr Bystron has previously been implicated in several high-profile controversies, including allegations that he received support from the pro-Russian media platform Voice of Europe in exchange for promoting Kremlin interests. Markus Frohnmaier has repeatedly visited occupied Crimea and Russian-controlled territories in eastern Ukraine. Steffen Kotré has consistently advocated renewed energy cooperation with Russia, while Jörg Urban opposes German military assistance to Ukraine and attended the “BRICS–Europe” symposium in Sochi in November 2025. http://lansinginstitute.org/2026/06/01/afd-in-st-petersburg-how-the-kremlin-cultivates-political-influence-inside-germany/
The European Commission is contributing emergency assistance, access for Armenian exports to the EU, and help finding a market for exports sanctioned by Russia. Election parliamentary elections tomorrow (7th)
“I spoke with [Armenian Prime Minister] Nikol Pashinyan about Russia’s recent restrictions targeting Armenia. This is nothing short of economic coercion, and it is unacceptable. Europe stands firmly with Armenia. We are preparing a support package,” von der Leyen wrote.
http://www.kyivpost.com/post/77624
British Defence Intelligence Update - Ukraine 03 June 2026
This shows continued instances of Russia bombing either Russia or Russian-occupied territory. If anything, Russia appears so far to have fewer errors than in previous years while numbers of bombing sorties seem to be about the same.
There isn't a comment on accuracy, which would give feedback on Russia's newer, more advanced guidance kits.
http://www.kyivpost.com/post/77480
Stefan Korshak round-up, delayed from last weekend (3 links in total)
http://stefankorshak.substack.com/p/may-29-2026-day-1556a-biletsky-and
http://stefankorshak.substack.com/p/may-29-2026-day-1556b-continued
http://stefankorshak.substack.com/p/may-29-2026-day-1556c-continued
Ukraine's drones hit the Kronstadt naval facility as a closing backdrop to the three-day SPIEF event, around 20 miles away.
Full damage assessments have yet to appear, but the arsenal has sustained damage to and caused by munitions stored outside,
Kronstadt is a symbol of Russia’s Navy and a strategic element of the enemy’s war machine. The base hosts warships, submarines, training centers, repair docks, and shipbuilding facilities.
"After Ukraine destroyed part of Russia’s capabilities in the Black Sea, Kronstadt’s role in sustaining the enemy’s military potential increased significantly. But now it is the turn of one of Russia’s oldest naval bases to burn,” the SSO said.
http://kyivindependent.com/oil-depot-set-ablaze-as-ukraine-reportedly-launches-dozens-of-drones-towards-russia/
http://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukrainian-drones-reach-russian-naval-base-1780738320.html
http://www.kyivpost.com/post/77650
An assessment of Russian ballistic missile production by Fabian Hoffman, a Doctoral Research Fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project researching nuclear strategy and missile technology.
Fabian Hoffman has written a sequel following Ukraine's Fire Point testing of its FP-7.X ballistic missile interceptor, a Patriot/SAMP-T Aster30 analogue.
(ITAR International Traffic in Arms Regulations - US import/export licensing controls, also affects the Gripen jet engine ^^)
The FP-7.X and Fire Point’s broader ballistic missile defense ambitions raise two questions. First, does the interceptor offer a competitive alternative to Patriot? Second, will Fire Point be able to deliver on its promise? This post offers some initial answers.
http://missilematters.substack.com/p/fp-7-and-the-institutional-history
The three pressure points that I think Russian forces are mainly attempting to inflict on Ukraine in one report. These cities, with Orikhiv, are appearing more in ISW daily reports,
Russian forces are trying to interdict Ukrainian supply routes and seize dominant heights to prepare the battlefield for future offensive operations against Slovyansk.
A prominent Russian milblogger cast doubt on the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) claimed seizures in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area on June 8.
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Hulyaipole direction on June 7 and 8 but did not advance.
The agent reported that the Russian military command has begun redeploying an unspecified number of troops from the 337th VDV Regiment* to an unspecified part of the “Zaporizhia sector” (possibly referring to the Orikhiv or Hulyaipole directions)
Orikhiv is a town that I mentioned ^^ as one that had come under heavy bombardment during the winter period, but the ground campaign to seize dominant heights to either side seemed to have stopped. Orikhiv gives easy access to the city of Zaporizhia via the T0803 road, which would also provide good logistics.
Russia used heavy bombardments during the winter period around the Orikhiv area, which is further south, but appears to have given up there in the face of heavy Ukrainian defences and Russian losses of territory.
*This unit is being redeployed "from the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast as Ukraine’s intermediate-range strike campaign against Russian supply lines in occupied Ukraine is rendering defenses in the area increasingly untenable."
http://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-8-2026/
The pro-Europe Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan won the Armenian parliamentary elections, however, two Russian-backed opposition parties in coalition is strong enough to make serious change difficult.
Official results from the Central Electoral Commission show Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party securing 49.81% of the vote. While this gives him the simple majority needed to form a government and retain the premiership, it falls critically short of the supermajority required to reshape Armenia’s constitutional and geopolitical landscape.
A separate opinion piece on Armenia is linked below
OPINION: What Armenia's Election Reveals About Russia's War in Ukraine
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s decisive election victory on Sunday signals a shift in public sentiment away from Russia following Moscow’s perceived failure to support Armenia in recent conflicts. The result shows declining Kremlin influence in the region and reflects how Russia’s war in Ukraine is reshaping political discourse across neighboring regions.
http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/77769
http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/77781
Europe's Future Combat Air System (FCAS / SCAF) has finally fallen apart after France and Germany couldn't agree.
The Italy/Japan/UK 6th gen Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) is also reportedly in trouble because the UK is struggling to pay up. Japan has simmering financial problems that are only controlled by heavy government intervention.
The engine is a joint Avio Aero (Italy), IHI (Japan) and Rolls-Royce (UK) venture.
Here's an idea, Germany chucks its funding into GCAP to maintain an independence from the US and its ITAR (International Traffic in Arms Regulations) licensing legislation.
The project has already been divvied up, but the respective governments need to get a grip of the manufacturers and redraw responsibilities if necessary. GCAP is a fast-paced project and was in that sense more advanced than FCAS
BERLIN/PARIS, June 8 (Reuters) - The leaders of Germany and France have agreed to scrap a landmark project* to develop and build a new-generation fighter jet, officials said on Monday, bowing to industrial rivalries over Europe's most ambitious defence programme. (*also with Spain)
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/german-french-leaders-unable-resolve-fcas-fighter-jet-dispute-sources-say-2026-06-08/
Fleet 2026, an International Maritime Defence Show in Kronstadt, St Petersburg appears to be going ahead tomorrow and into the weekend.
Kronstadt was struck twice during SPIEF
The event was cancelled in 2024 because of security concerns http://en.defence-ua.com/events/the_uk_defense_intelligence_russian_navy_days_security_concerns_lead_to_the_cancellation_of_kronstadts_parade-11303.html
The Chonhar Bridge*, spanning the Syvash lagoon and connecting occupied Crimea with mainland Ukraine, was struck by drones overnight on June 9 once again, forcing Russian-installed authorities to suspend traffic. The crossing has played a crucial role in Moscow’s military logistics since Russia seized Crimea in 2014. Alternative routes through Armyansk and Perekop add significant distance to military and civilian transport.
*The Chonhar Bridge shows as two bridges in the linked images. The narrower, unused road bridge and the newer road bridge which carries the M18 major road. Both road bridges have been struck on previous occasions.
There is a separate railway crossing a dam to the north that's also confusingly referred to as the Chonhar Bridge. Compound my confusion with the Russian-English "Chongar" spelling!
The road bridge was last struck at the weekend causing a temporary closure from the 7th, re-opened and then struck again (this report).
The last major strikes in 2023 were reportedly a pair of Storm Shadow/SCALP EG cruise missiles, but this week's strikes are laid at the door of drones which shows the pace of development. Ukraine has been developing a range of shaped charges for both bombing and landmine purposes, including converting the US M2A4 demolition charge to drone use (four links below)
I think that @blokeuptheroad will know more about this type of munition
Sources:
http://www.kyivpost.com/post/77815
http://en.defence-ua.com/news/chonhar_bridges_are_cut_strategic_importance_of_the_bottleneck_bridges_to_crimea_and_what_weapon_could_have_struck_them-7089.html
http://ukrainetoday.org/steel-hornets-inside-ukraines-amazon-for-drone-bombs/
http://militarnyi.com/en/news/us-supplied-ukraine-with-m2a4-demolition-charges/
A useful piece on the withdrawal from the Kinburn Spit referenced ^^ (full article linked)
Russian units stationed on the Kinburn Spit in Ukraine’s Mykolaiv region are reportedly withdrawing from parts of the occupied area after Ukrainian strikes disrupted key supply routes, according to the Atesh partisan group. The group said deliveries of ammunition, fuel, and food had been cut off, forcing elements of Russia’s 337th Regiment to abandon some positions.
http://www.kyivpost.com/post/77825
The new Bulgarian government is using a US argument to stop arms deliveries to Ukraine. Bulgaria is one of the few European producers of Soviet-standard ammunition.
The ammunition is still produced elsewhere and pressure from the EU, jobs, etc might cause Bulgaria to supply third-parties who then supply Ukraine.
Bulgaria’s newly appointed government intends to end military aid deliveries to Ukraine, Defense Minister Dimitar Stoyanov said. The move reflects the position of Prime Minister Rumen Radev, who argues the war cannot be won on the battlefield.
http://www.kyivpost.com/post/77838
The last major strikes in 2023 were reportedly a pair of Storm Shadow/SCALP EG cruise missiles, but this week's strikes are laid at the door of drones which shows the pace of development.
Whats the plan here? I understood that they werent going after the bridge so much as they couldnt hit it with anything big enough to do it serious damage. Is that if they can hit it with little things regularly enough its functionally blocked as nobody will want to risk going across it?
The last major strikes in 2023 were reportedly a pair of Storm Shadow/SCALP EG cruise missiles, but this week's strikes are laid at the door of drones which shows the pace of development.
Whats the plan here? I understood that they werent going after the bridge so much as they couldnt hit it with anything big enough to do it serious damage. Is that if they can hit it with little things regularly enough its functionally blocked as nobody will want to risk going across it?
The Kerch Bridge has been subject to much speculation, but I think that Ukraine is making better use of munitions in other areas.
These Chonhar attacks are specifically designed to cause logistics problems for the Russians occupying the area around Hulyaipole
That article on Bulgaria: He may be right that the war may not be wonm on the battlefield, but stopping supplying ammunition to Ukrain will 100% guaruntee that it will be lost there.
I'd hope that it's a temporary issue that will only cost more money to source other supplies.
Transport and availability will increase £££
Ukraine has reportedly attacked bridges in the Arabat Spit area around Henichesk this morning (10th) since the post above ^^
AIUI, the Crimea Kerch Strait Bridge is still out of bounds to explosive loads following the attacks there, most recently in 2025 (I think) and the nearby ferries have been attacked earlier this year.
The effective closure of the three bridges puts Russian logistics to and from Crimea in easy drone range of the frontline around Kherson because the road diversion routes are NW Crimea, rather than the safer NE and E bridges
Ukraine are testing their alternative to the patriot interceptors
they cost 1/5th of the price of the american version, they could end up hugely undercutting american arms manufacturrers which would be very ironic
The last major strikes in 2023 were reportedly a pair of Storm Shadow/SCALP EG cruise missiles, but this week's strikes are laid at the door of drones which shows the pace of development.
Whats the plan here? I understood that they werent going after the bridge so much as they couldnt hit it with anything big enough to do it serious damage. Is that if they can hit it with little things regularly enough its functionally blocked as nobody will want to risk going across it?
The Kerch Bridge has been subject to much speculation, but I think that Ukraine is making better use of munitions in other areas.
These Chonhar attacks are specifically designed to cause logistics problems for the Russians occupying the area around Hulyaipole
@dakuan my apologies. I've just realised that I missed a link that would explain part of your question.
Ukraine reportedly has a new drone, the Behemoth that has a tandem 75kg warhead, but I guess that the configuration can be changed as Stefan Korshak suggests.
There's some confusion over correct images with 2023 images appearing in some reports
http://open.substack.com/pub/stefankorshak/p/june-7-2026-day-1565b-continued
The three Stefan Korshak posts in full:
https://stefankorshak.substack.com/p/june-7-2026-day-1565a-crimea-cuts
http://open.substack.com/pub/stefankorshak/p/june-7-2026-day-1565b-continued
http://open.substack.com/pub/stefankorshak/p/june-7-2026-day-1565c-continued
Ukraine are testing their alternative to the patriot interceptors
they cost 1/5th of the price of the american version, they could end up hugely undercutting american arms manufacturrers which would be very ironic
There's an assessment above ^^
Conclusion:
Cheap, quick development time so far, operational performance is an unknowable unknown.
Lessons learned over many years by Raytheon and MBDA might cut R&D time
The FP-7.X and Fire Point’s broader ballistic missile defense ambitions raise two questions. First, does the interceptor offer a competitive alternative to Patriot? Second, will Fire Point be able to deliver on its promise? This post offers some initial answers.
http://missilematters.substack.com/p/fp-7-and-the-institutional-history
Just happened upon that video showing Ukraine's Flamingo cruise missile making it's way through Russian suburbs...
Quite a sight! Pretty much exemplifies bringing the war back to Russia.
Thanks for these informative posts timba on such a terrible war.
ISW report that the pontoon bridge stored beneath the Chonhar Bridge has been deployed into the open-space between the old and new bridges. The pontoon will only allow a fraction of the normal traffic volumes and at lower speeds and it's just as much of a target.
The temptation for Russia to run explosive loads across the Crimea Kerch bridge must be huge just now
A Ukrainian brigade commander reported on June 10 that Ukrainian forces struck the bridge between occupied Henichesk (roughly 120 kilometers from the frontline) and the Arbat Spit. The commander added that Russian forces can only reach occupied Crimea from Kherson Oblast through one route near Armyansk (on the northwestern edge of Crimea off the Perekop Bay) as a result of the strike. Kherson Oblast occupation head Vladimir Saldo acknowledged the missile strike and claimed temporarily blocking traffic across the bridge. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) published satellite imagery June 10, indicating that Russian forces constructed a pontoon bridge next to the Chonhar bridge, which Ukrainian forces have struck twice since June 7.
http://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-10-2026/
http://tsn.ua/en/ukrayina/chonhar-bridge-hit-in-strikes-satellite-images-show-damage-3102989.html
including converting the US M2A4 demolition charge to drone use (four links below)
I think that @blokeuptheroad will know more about this type of munition
Hi @Timba, I've been away on a bikepacking trip for the last week so just catching up on your excellent summaries of what's been happening in Ukraine.
Those conical shaped charges are standard equipment in most armies and typically used by engineers in demolitions or for digging holes rapidly. During my service, the British equivalent was an L something model number (memory fades) but nicknamed the "beehive" because it looks like one! It's very similar to the US M2A4.
These munitions are excellent at punching holes in things, such as reinforced concrete, armour or earth. In concrete, the holes would be very deep, but of small diameter. So on their own capable of damaging but not destroying a reinforced concrete bridge.
Interesting that Ukraine has adapted them for use with Drones.
There are also linear shaped charges used for longer cuts on things like steel bridge stanchions.
